The TNS-BMRB London poll I mentioned briefly yesterday now has tables up on their website here. Re-percentaged to exclude don’t knows and wouldn’t votes, first round preferences work out at roughly JOHNSON 45%, LIVINGSTONE 35%, PADDICK 11%, JONES 5%, WEBB 2%, CORTIGLIA 1% (There is no line in the tables for Siobhan Benita, I don’t know if no one picked her, or if she was omitted).

A slightly higher level of support for Paddick and a bigger lead for Boris than we’ve seen elsewhere on the first round figures, but after reallocation of second preferences and filtered by likelihood to vote, BMRB-TNS’s formal topline figures work out at JOHNSON 53%, LIVINGSTONE 47% – exactly the same as ComRes and YouGov’s last London polls.


110 Responses to “TNS-BMRB also have Boris 6 points ahead”

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  1. C’mon Ken, don’t let me down now.

  2. Unless I’m misreading it, the final table gives second round figures of 55:45% for Boris.

  3. Jenny Jones leading on second preference votes.

    Should be good for the Greens in the Assembly election.

  4. Sean – my reading of the tabs is that it is 55/45 for everyone, and then 53/47 after filtering by likelihood to vote.

    TNS-BMRB put the latter out as their “topline” figure.

  5. Looking more and more bleak for Ken and the ‘Bradford Spring’ tendency.

  6. Livingstone’s had it and Alan Sugar has just applied the coup de grace by recommending to his million or so Twitter follows NOT to vote for Livingstone on May 3rd. Yes, that’s right, the Labour Peer and party member telling people NOT to vote for Labour’s official candidate in the London Mayoral election.

    You couldn’t make it up, could you? Livingstone was always a disastrous choice as candidate and whoever decided to choose him has given Cameron a gigantic get-out-of-jail card come May 3rd, on a night where, according to all available polling evidence, his party is very likely to get a monumental drubbing elsewhere in the country.

    The word fiasco springs to mind

  7. My reading of this poll result and all the others are that Boris will be re-elected quite comfortably. Despite Labour holding a commanding lead in the polls nationally they seem incompetent of actually delivering when it matters.

    Bradford West and in Scotland Labour have chucked in the towel and all but conceded defeat to the SNP. Now they look set to be dumped by Londoners in the up coming Mayor elections.

    The 10 point lead nationality is more of a protest than an endorsement of Labour!!

  8. ROB SHEFFIELD

    Looking more and more bleak for Ken and the ‘Bradford Spring’ tendency
    __________

    LOL…

    Did you see the look on Galloway’s face at PMQ’s when DC blamed Labour for letting the Big Brother cat back in? ;)

  9. #.Nationally

  10. Not really been a good day for Ken, first Lord Sugar and now Ken has had to admit to using private healthcare for annual checkups, so the hypocrite tag is not going to go away fast .
    Ed must wish they had a new fresh candidate standing.

  11. @ Crossbat

    When Alan Sugar popped up as a special adviser (or whatever it was) to Labour, I was dumbfounded. A man whose public persona is Mr Self-made Man (all ‘leader’, no team) who believes that you get the most from people by shouting at them & thinks that “You’re Fired” is an acceptable catch phrase!

    With friends like that who needs enemas? :twisted:

  12. @GreenGirl

    Yes,if the Greens get over 5% in the assembly elections their AMs should keep their seats. I believe to get a third AM they need to get more than the 8% or so they got last time.

    But also in terms of the mayoral vote, if Jenny Jones gets over 5% the Greens get to keep their £10000 deposit, which is a lot of money for them (and ‘peanuts’ for Boris).

  13. If Labour had selected someone else then Ken would’ve threatened to stand as an independent, so they had no choice really. Hopefully he can now do the decent thing and retire.

    Labour should now have a long think to who they should select as a candidate for 2016.

  14. So Labour have lost one of their safest seats, they’re going to lose in Scotland to the SNP by quite a big margin it seems, and are about to be redefeated in one of their stronghold regions, by an unpopular conservative government trailing them in the national polls. All disastrous for Labour

    But no doubt in Labour’s mind, winning some councillors on May 3rd, which is typical for any opposition, will be hailed as the big success and somehow outweight all of the above.

    Labour member on election night:

    “We may be losing MP’s in the national parliament, as well as losing our strongholds of London and Scotland, but at least we control what day the bins are put out now in councils up and down the country, I think this shows the Labour party is doing really well”

  15. Max, interesting.

    Are you claiming that Labour currently control London? Boris is perhaps a fifth columnist? We have already lost London to the Tories, if we don’t win it back that will be disappointing, but it won’t give Cameron a lot of cause for comfort.

    As for Scotland, are Labour in Government there? Again, the answer is no.

    I do think Ken will lose, and I don’t think he is a great candidate against Boris, but this has become a personality election, and as such the (party political) polls have little relevance.

    Outside London Labour will win many Council seats and many Councils. They will regain control of Birmingham – the largest authority in western Europe – from a Tory/LibDem coalition.

  16. @TheSheep

    So the fact you lost strongholds when you were unpopular and are unable to win them back when you’re popular again and we’re unpopular, doesn’t seem to worry you?

    Also you’re going to lose councils in Scotland according to current polling, and I didn’t know control of Birmingham Council was seen as a big prize by the Labour party nowadays, things must be worse for Labour than I first thought.

    Now off to do revision, so have fun lefties, you’ll have the place to yourself for a while.

  17. I just watched the London Mayor debate on TV hosted by Alan Sugar and he pointed to Ken Livingston and said..

    “You’re Fired” ;)

  18. Thesheep

    “As for Scotland, are Labour in Government there? Again, the answer is no”

    “I do think Ken will lose, and I don’t think he is a great candidate against Boris, but this has become a personality election, and as such the (party political) polls have little relevance”
    ______

    Labour as you say are not in government in Scotland but they do hold the countries largest council ( Glasgow ) and over the past month they have already lost their majority on it even before a vote has been cast..

    On the personality contest, yes I can see the same happening in London which happened in Scotland, Labour lost because it was down to a personality contest.

    If it really was down to personalities then the Tories could had put up General Pinochet against Ken and they would had still won!! :)

  19. @Smukesh

    if you were to put up Alan Sugar instead of Ken (although he has said he wouldn’t) you may well get the vote of this former conservative member even. (Assuming Boris isnt running in 2016)

  20. This poll is clearly an outlier.

    we’re supposed to believe:
    – that Ken is 10% behind on first preference, when YG show 5 and Comres 6;
    – that despite being on 35%, Ken will garner 12% extra on Second Prefs to Boris’s 7%;
    – that despite everything we’ve heard to.date, Ken supporters are MORE likely.to vote; and
    -that Ken is the preferred 2nd choice for LD

    I think the Second Preference scores are sound, but the First Prefs are all over the place.

    Further, I think Sugar’s intervention.will help Ken. Most people think AS is a bit of an egotistical nonentity. Does anyone remember Amstrad computers ? And the Amstrad e-mailer?

    The private healthcare matter is also not serious. He has a private medical once a year. And? Most doctors recommend it for someone of Ken’s age.

    Ken can still win this. I always find it interesting in the ES when they have a panel of voters. Today, the voters were broadly supportive of Ken’s policies. No-one was hostile.

  21. @MAX
    `if you were to put up Alan Sugar instead of Ken (although he has said he wouldn’t) you may well get the vote of this former conservative member even. (Assuming Boris isnt running in 2016)`

    Perhaps so…I for one,hope he and his millions get sacked from the Labour party…Two weeks from a close election and this narcissist feels the need to stab his own side in the back

  22. My admiration for Sugar purely stems from his Twitter argument with Louise Mensch, who I dislike greatly.

    Labour’s problem seems to be with their “faces”, so to speak, not the party itself. As evidenced by the polls, people like Labour. They just don’t like Livingstone/Miliband/Lamont/the Bradford West councillors/the Glasgow councillors for reasons relating to the candidates themselves rather than their policies.

  23. “Further, I think Sugar’s intervention.will help Ken. Most people think AS is a bit of an egotistical nonentity.”

    I doubt you would be saying this a few hours ago :P. Alan Sugar is hugely popular among the British public, his endorsement will carry weight. There is added significance that he is a Labour member saying don’t vote Labour, but I think it would have almost a similar impact if he was just an independent. The man is liked among the public for his straight talking, and he is an inspiration, especially for me.

    “Perhaps so…I for one,hope he and his millions get sacked from the Labour party…Two weeks from a close election and this narcissist feels the need to stab his own side in the back”

    Why? Here is a working class individual who has worked his way up from nothing to become a success, and although he supports Labour the fact that he puts the people before his party should not be frowned upon. I think it’s refreshing for party members to be allowed to disagree with their party. Another reason why Boris does well, is because he has quite often argued against the Conservative line. People like people with their own mind, not just following the party line. I think it will be warmly welcomed that even though he is a Labour man, he won’t just blindly follow the Labour party.

  24. @Max

    Ken is also an Independent mind from a poor background, who unlike Sugar still lives in a terraced house in a fairly run down area of London. Sugar would get hammered in any political contest.

    He doesn’t like Ken because Sugar is New Labour and their animosity goes back some time. Don’t give me this guff that AS is a working.class Labour man. His conversion to Labour only happened under Blair. And like most Blairites he’s closer to Boris and DC than Labour.

    Ken is a working class man who.has never forgotten his roots and campaigned hard throughout his career for the poor and underprivilaged. Unlike Sugar, who is simply a typical.City type.

  25. Crossbat.

    “You couldn’t make it up, could you?”

    Unfortunately given the state of the Labour party you could but don ‘t have too.

    I think this is Blairs legacy at it’s worst. You triangulated on to the Tories under Major while they triangulated under Cameron to Brown and now you stand for the same things as each other which tends to be not much more that “We’re not them”

    Your like twins saying “Who me!”

    You may not like the SNP, but everyone knows what we stand for.

    The more the ideological differences become like angels on the head of a pin, the less reason their is for anyone to be loyal so minority parties and celebrity candidates do better.

    Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP).

  26. @RAF

    Ken comes across as quite creepy, and hypocrital. He is in it for himself. Sugar has become a success and still sticks to his Labour roots, where as a multi millionaire his personal interests would probably be best served with the conservative party. Although I disagree with Sugar politicaly (I’m right wing, he’s Labour) I admire the fact he will do and say what he thinks is right for the people ie backing Labour, even though I personally disagree with Labour being the best choice.

    Again, say what you like RAF, Sugar is popular, Ken is not. Sugar acts as an inspiration to many working class people like myself, I’ve never seen anyone call Ken an inspiration, apart from probably an actor or two in his latest scripted campaign video ;)

  27. TOP HAT

    “Labour’s problem seems to be with their “faces”, so to speak, not the party itself”
    __________

    Yes I see what you mean, Lamont has no chance against pin up Chippendale Salmond.. ;)

    Oh dear what next, personality’s? Oh hang on we already had that excuse!!

  28. Interesting that Labour suffer the same problem of the Republican party in the US, despite being totally different sides of the spectrum.

    Both have polls showing them with high levels of support, but their individual candidates are disliked.

    Opinion polling roughly shows, a generic republican beating Obama in the november election, but as soon as you make the poll obama, against any of the republican candidates, Obama wins. Same for Labour, 10 point lead in national polls, haven’t made any gains in 2 years, apart from some local councilors.

    At least we know why Lord Sugar isn’t supporting Ken, looks like Ken’s antisemetic comment about Jews not supporting him coming back to haunt him, with a dose of irony. Oh Karma you are wonderful. Still Ken could always hire a rabbi in full gear to appear in one of his camp… oh yeah, he already tried that one.

  29. @Allan;

    By “faces” I meant the people representing them, not their literal faces. I wouldn’t have thought it was that difficult to understand…

  30. Mr Cairns:

    It’s not always clear where the SNP stand on issues (or whether they’re hiding things- see the windfarm data), what is clear is that they are rabidly pro-Scottish independence. I would support them more if their first reaction to a Unionist wasn’t “well, they’re anti-Scottish”. It’s insulting, childish, and plain wrong.

    Linda Fabiani came into our local bookstore, and one of the decorations on the wall is a brilliant painting featuring periods in British history. It’s great, for kids and adults alike. She turned around and complained to the management that it wasn’t only Scottish history.

    I wish that they actually got some media attention, because had they got the same level of attention as Labour, they wouldn’t be doing so soundly in the polls.

  31. @MAX
    `Again, say what you like RAF, Sugar is popular, Ken is not`

    Sugar is popular in a TV autocrat sort of way…Simon Cowell is popular too,doesn`t mean people are going to vote for him.

    Has Sugar explained his reasons for asking people not to vote for Ken?Why are you ascribing reasons for his behaviour?It can`t be because Ken used a tax vehicle for obvious reasons…I lived in London during Ken`s time as Mayor and do-nothing Boris` time pales in comparison to Ken`s achievements as mayor..

  32. @Max

    Livingstone has achieved a great deal.for ordinary people. What has Sugar achieved for anyone but himself? A Labour man? Sugar’s first donation.to Labour came in 2001. He only.backed Labour under Blair. That’s a fact.

    Hate Ken all you like, he had a record of helping the poor and standing.up.to.the rich and powerful, including the City and his own part
    y.

    If Ken was for himself, he could be a millionnaire and live in a mansion. Ehy doesn’t he? He could.lobby.for big oil, the City, US military action. Why is he opposed? why is he campaigning to cut fares, rents and energy prices? He doesn’t need the savings.

    Boris is surrounded by right wing idealogues like Kit Malthouse. These people are in his inner circle. You may think this is a good thing, but make no mistake Boris’s cabinet is far Bluer than Cameron’s

    I accept people prefer Boris. But look at what rubbish Ken has had to.put up.with.from the Press for decades. People wonder why politicians all central government.level.cover more or less the same ground. That’s because if you.really stand up.for the powerless against the.powerful, you’re treated.like Ken.

  33. Max King of the Fantastic County of Kent

    “Opinion polling roughly shows, a generic republican beating Obama in the november election, but as soon as you make the poll obama, against any of the republican candidates, Obama wins. Same for Labour, 10 point lead in national polls, haven’t made any gains in 2 years, apart from some local councilors”
    ________

    Totaly agree with this and all it shows is that the Labour lead is merely a protest against tough decisions being made by the government of the day rather than popularity for Labour.

  34. “Sugar is popular in a TV autocrat sort of way”

    Well in the age of television that is an important factor. You can no longer hide behind policies alone, the public have to like you.

    “Simon Cowell is popular too,doesn`t mean people are going to vote for him.”

    But his endorsement in 2010 was widely sought after and his support for Cameron could only have been a bonus. Cowell doesn’t have the same inspirational status that Sugar does though.

    “Has Sugar explained his reasons for asking people not to vote for Ken?Why are you ascribing reasons for his behaviour?”

    I believe you need to get a sense of humour I said that it was ironic that Ken made the comment “jews wont vote for me because their rich” then a rich jew tells people not to vote for him weeks later. I was merely pointing out the irony, not actually guessing Sugar’s real reasons.

    “I lived in London during Ken`s time as Mayor and do-nothing Boris` time pales in comparison ”

    Indeed, if do nothing means, not causing a scandal every other week then I agree, Ken did a lot more. Ken’s achievements are rather sadly outweighed, by his odious comments and personality. Boris’s achievements, (remember he has 4 so far, Ken had 8) may be less, but they are able to shine and nothing else distracts from them.

  35. Top Hat

    @Allan;

    By “faces” I meant the people representing them, not their literal faces. I wouldn’t have thought it was that difficult to understand
    _________

    Okay but I still stand by my Chippendale Salmond remark!! ;)

  36. RAF

    Come on you’re making out Ken to be some sort of hero for the working class…He pays less tax (as a proportion) than his office cleaner.

    If he had his way then London City Airport would be turned into a terminus for his beloved bendy buses!! ;)

  37. “Okay but I still stand by my Chippendale Salmond remark!! ”

    Oh dear, the images! On a slight off topic note, why are Politicians, from all parties, both male and female so ugly? I’m not saying beauty should have anything to do with Politics, but seriously never seen a good looking politician in my life.

    Being cursed with such good looks my political career may be over before it has begun ;) :P

  38. @MAX
    `Boris’s achievements, (remember he has 4 so far, Ken had may be less`

    A supposed scandal every week,especially close to the 2008 election for which the ES apologised to Ken and no charges were ever brought…We all know the technique…If you can`t get him on his work,try and tarnish his reputation.

    So one achievement for every year(I can only remember two btw-bike and bus) and you support him for mayor…Boris is front runner because he`s funny and he`s good on `Have I got news for you`…That`s all there is to it.

  39. I am beginning to wonder if Windfarm (OTFCOK) is actually a team in Tory Central Office.

  40. MAX

    Hmm not all of them are ugly, Ann Widdecombe was a babe ;)

    “Being cursed with such good looks my political career may be over before it has begun”

    Ha ha we’ll take your word for that!! :)

  41. @Smukesh, I meant to say he’s only had 4 years Ken had 8

    But I mistyped and forgot to write years and the 8 and the closing bracket 8 ) made the face 8)

    Also achievements will be seen differently by both sides. For Labour and Greens, Ken’s introduction will be seen as an achievement, Boris removing some of the western congestion area would be seen as something bad.

    But if you’re on the right, it changes round, Congestion charge introduction seen as bad, removal of western side by Boris would be seen as an achievement.

    Fares went up under both mayors. The current fare is £1.30 with an oyster (everyone almost has an oyster) and I think when I came to the Greater London area in 2004, it was only £1 so over the 4 years of ken and the 4 years of Boris, it’s only really gone up 30p. Sure its more for not having an Oyster, but Londoners without an oyster are very rare and uncommon.

    Boris bikes seen as a big success though. Also love how people blame the ES for derailing Ken and giving Boris power, yet the entire media apart from the Mirror and Guardian, couldnt help Cameron win overall in 2010. Think there is more to Kens low levels than just media attacks.

  42. @ MAX

    Do you know Lord Sugar well ? to me he is a fame hungry self indulgent should be failed businessman.

    I say should be failed because how he isnt bankrupt after the tosh he pushed on us in the 90’s is beyond me.
    And you saying he sticks to Labour roots, Im sorry but knifing your party in the back is not sticking to your roots…

    Im as Tory as you get but even i can respect what KL has done in his time, if i could achieve half of what he has i would be a happy man.

    Still want Boris to win of course though.

  43. ‘Sugar acts as an inspiration to many working class people like myself’

    Surely rising from a working class background to becoming an independent mayor of one of the world’s most important cities is fairly inspirational?

  44. @SMUKESH

    In fairness to Boris, there are the following:

    Chased a gang away from a woman;
    Sticks up for anyone, not just the minority flavour of the month;
    Sticks up for his principles, and challenges others to do the same (be they electorate, opposition or the PM);
    good on HIGNFY;
    funny;
    pays his taxes (as far as we know);
    Doesn’t make an Islamic or Jewish gaff every time he’s up for election;

    To name a few. :)

  45. “And you saying he sticks to Labour roots, Im sorry but knifing your party in the back is not sticking to your roots…”

    I completely disagree, there’s this nasty term in politics, called collective responsibility. It is one of the biggest problems in politics. The fact that you can’t openly disagree with your party on any issue or face some sort of reprimand is a horrible prospect.

    Boris is popular and out performing the Conservatives because he will speak his mind, not the tory line. His comments on an EU referendum as well as opposing Kosovo style cleansing of Londons poor by his own party have made him seen a man of principles doing what is right for the people not the party.

    Same with Lord Sugar, he donates millions to Labour and is one of their peers and a former cabinet member. But he recognises that Ken would be a terrible Mayor for the people, so what does he do? Does he speak his mind, and warn people, or does he keep his mouth shut and stick to the party line.

    I prefer someone, on any side, who will stand up to their party and do what is right for the country, not right for the party.

  46. Evening All. Hard day over, and the rain has stopped.

    I tutored a student this evening, and we studied the 1945 General Election, and the reasons for the Landslide. Emotional it was, as memories came flooding back from my Grandparents stories about life in South Wales under the Coalition Government before the War, Winston’s attack on ‘Nye’ for being the Politican of Disease, and Nye’s reply.

    On Ken:
    He helped to wreck Kinnock’s attempt to make ‘us’ electable after the coup in 1981.

    On Labour:
    The Party needs an orator, someone who reaches all parts of the UK, who looks nice, smiles well, understands tory england, and makes Labour electable, so that it can be in power to help people featured in Mark Easton’s report on the BBC website tonight. After winning three GE’s ‘we’ can then dump him.

  47. “Yes, that’s right, the Labour Peer and party member telling people NOT to vote for Labour’s official candidate in the London Mayoral election.”

    I presume Sugar is set to be expelled from the party, as would be the case for any party member campaining against an official candidate.

    Would probably go down well with a lot of the lost vote on the left…

  48. STATGEEK
    The attributes are brilliant advertisements for his personality…But for a politician who is spending billions of tax-payer money,I would prefer to see more concrete achievements.

    I am afraid you are making my point for me…I have nothing against Boris and he has not been the disaster that I thought he would be…But Ken has more potential than him for this job IMO

  49. “I presume Sugar is set to be expelled from the party, as would be the case for any party member campaining against an official candidate.”

    Didn’t this happen to our beloved Ken back in 2000? Except he actually ran against the official labour candidate rather than just not endorsing him. So how anyone can attack Sugar for what he said about Ken is beyond me, when Ken did the same but worse to whoever was the Labour candidate in 2000

  50. SCOTSWAEHAE,

    Which issues aren’t you clear about, I should be able to help you out.

    Oh and this is the first I’ve heard that the entire membership of the SNP were rabid.

    Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP).

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