The TNS-BMRB London poll I mentioned briefly yesterday now has tables up on their website here. Re-percentaged to exclude don’t knows and wouldn’t votes, first round preferences work out at roughly JOHNSON 45%, LIVINGSTONE 35%, PADDICK 11%, JONES 5%, WEBB 2%, CORTIGLIA 1% (There is no line in the tables for Siobhan Benita, I don’t know if no one picked her, or if she was omitted).

A slightly higher level of support for Paddick and a bigger lead for Boris than we’ve seen elsewhere on the first round figures, but after reallocation of second preferences and filtered by likelihood to vote, BMRB-TNS’s formal topline figures work out at JOHNSON 53%, LIVINGSTONE 47% – exactly the same as ComRes and YouGov’s last London polls.

110 Responses to “TNS-BMRB also have Boris 6 points ahead”

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  1. Apparently odds being cut by bookmakers for Ken being mayor,albeit only slightly…The feeling is perhaps he came out best

  2. J Murphy
    Never knew Elgar was a Catholic!

  3. @ Smukesh

    …meaning that the Coalition was only ever meant to be a time limited agreement covering Westminster alone and not extending in time or place beyond that.

    This may come as a surprise to Labour supporters who want to pretend that the remaining Lib Dem vote will simply fold back into the Tory VI and cease to exist.

    What Paddick may be showing is that under the right circumstances, with a candidate who does not look so apparently “Tory” as Nick Clegg (which in fact Clegg very definitely is not), the Lib Dems have potential for a polling revival. At this stage, I fear Paddick does not have enough time to make a major impact on the Mayoral campaign and the potential will go largely unfulfilled, simply because he hit the ground too late.

  4. As a Conservative, I would say in terms of Sky debate

    WINNER – Brian Paddick (Lib dem)
    2nd – Boris Johnson (Conservative)
    3rd – Ken Livingstone (Labour)

  5. Latest YouGov/Sun results 19th April CON 32%, LAB 45%, LD 8%, OTHERS 16%; APP -39

    (UKIP on 7%)

    New Thread

  6. John Murphy

    I can assure you that I have never thought of London being the centre of the universe but it’s the impression I get from others who think London and the South East are. Mind the north south divide starts at Watford so they say!! ;)

    J Murphy
    Never knew Elgar was a Catholic!

    Explains a lot though when you think about it…. oddly, just listening to Janet Baker singing the Angel’s Farewell

  8. John Murphy @ ALLAN CHRISTIE:

    “I just brought someone home from University College Hospital another piece of Labour’s legacy…but he had to wait an extra 2 months for the hip replacement… ”

    A few weeks ago I came home from a no-urgent triple heart bypass.There is a target of 18 weeks from cardiologist out patient appointment to operation day.

    From first consulting my GP on the first angina attack to discharge from hospital was 14 weeks.

    Then there is the quality of the training, equipment, skill, staffing levels,and compasson. The food was adequate but seemed poor by comparison, but the view of the river from my window was great. Apart from the first £10, my travel expenses were paid and, had we requested it, my wife could have stayed in a 4-star hotel on site.

  9. Barney

    I sang in the chorus in at least one performance with Janet Baker, but Norma Procter was even better. My wife doesn’t agree.

  10. @ John Murphy

    “A perfect palace then for the last two Mavericks to rule us from!!!

    The problem with any Mayoralty is there will always be a tension between the bankability of public recognition over-trumping the dullness of active local politicians… and to some extent it is a mechanism that favours the flashy articulate rather than the dullard…it seems to work that way also in Wales and Scotland…but then perhaps also even in the UK as a whole…celebrity politics…but then it’s been with us at least since Shaftesbury’s Whigs, Oats and the Popish Plot…

    And still we muddle through….perhaps if Mr Hollande wins in France the dull will be the new black….as they might say in couture circles…”

    Hmmm, yeah that is kinda funny to think about. The two London Mayors (since the position was created) have both been mavericks who have defied their parties/caused them trouble.

    I’m not against all modern architecture. In fact, I kinda like it when you have city scapes filled with a lot of side by side architecture of different styles and different eras. A 1950’s or 1960’s highrise apartment tower on a block with townhomes dating from the late 19th and early 20th centuries makes those townhomes look all the prettier. So I don’t expect every City Hall be a beaux arts or Greek Revival or with a decorative tower. But there’s something about that big shape that I don’t like.

    When Americans learn about Parliamentary systems, they have to be taught about the influence a party designation has on a vote. The impact of an individual Parliamentarian’s personal appeal can boost their vote totals but only in a small way. The only Parliamentary system anywhere where personal appeal really can make a massive difference in election outcomes is Canada.

    The position of London Mayor changes the equation of how voters vote. Even the Scots who seem to have adopted the concept of ticket splitting don’t have the scenario that London has where an individual candidate really can make the difference.

    In terms of dull being the new black, there was a lot of discussion about this about 10 years ago when looking at mayoral races in major American cities. Cities will often alternate between mayors who are political stars and quasi-celebrities and mayors who are dull technocrats. It seemed that mayors who inspired their cities were on the rise in the 70’s and 80’s. But then dull technocrats made a comeback in the 1990’s.

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