As well as the TNS BMRB, YouGov and Populus polls yesterday I missed one by Angus Reid. Topline figures there, with changes from March, were CON 29%(-3), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 8%(+1). The 29% is the lowest for the Conservatives since the election, though it’s worth noting that Angus Reid do tend to show a lower scores for the Conservatives than other pollsters.

Opinium have also released updated figures, details here, and like YouGov yesterday have UKIP in third place ahead of the Liberal Democrats (apparently they showed the same in their last poll, but didn’t release it at the time). Topline figures are CON 32%(-2), LAB 37%(-2), UKIP 10%(+1), LDEM 9%, Others 12%.


27 Responses to “New Angus Reid and Opinium polls”

  1. Why are we now showing UKIP figures?

    They have no representation in parliament unlike the SNP and PC. So, unless there is some bias, those other parties ought to be shown too.

  2. Is a 12 point Labour lead the biggest we’ve seen this Parliament?

  3. Personally I think the fairly high UKIP figure is a warning sign for Labour that :

    1/ There are a lot of disaffected Tories out there that aren’t coming to Labour – probably because they still dislike Labour for policies in office or because they don’t yet see then as a credible alternative.

    and

    2/ If these voters are floating to UKIP for a mid term ‘protest’ vote then its highly likely that 7-8% of them will float back to the Tories at the time of the next election when faced with the prospect of a Labour government and an election campaign that will no doubt include some anti-EU rhetoric from the Tories.

    IF UKIP could keep these kinds of levels of support at a GE then it could have a big effect across the country in marginals but that’s a big IF.

    Past General Elections have tended to show that the European issue is somewhat sidelined and only has a marginal effect on voting intentions.

  4. @Chris Todd

    If you cover your eyes the horrors are still there, they don’t go away.

    Angus Reid seem to over emphasize the collapse of the incumbent’s support. This was also the case with the last Labour government. With their polls it’s the trend that matters, not the actual figures.

  5. Well looks like a case of the mid term blues to me happens to every govt. Remains to be seen if its a new ‘Paradigm’ in politics lots of false dawns in the past.

    Certainly puts the pressure on our creaking electoral system doesnt it ,cant cope with all these choices on the ballot.

    The key thing here is what the UKIP effect will have in Tory marginals and target seats it would appear UKIPs gain is mainly at the expense of the Tories .

    Also interesting to see if it helps LDs in Tory/LD marginals as a counterpoint to the YG poll in the Sun.

    I am sure we have seen a UKIP score this high re GE voting intention before post last Euro Elections .

    Certainly UKIPs rise and that 29% figure will put Cameron under fire from his own MPs it will be interesting to see how the Tories respond to being under pressure electorally in Coalition the Lib Dems score seems unaffected .Maybe Clegg will have to start letting Cameron have some Tory wins .

  6. If this neck-and-neck between UKIP and Lib Dem continues through to late summer then I can see the yellows conference beng a riotous affair. Even more so if they get the expected next month in the locals.

  7. Missing word thanks to iPhone was “tonking” !

  8. @ Oldnat
    “You really had to struggle to produce that response!
    That Jeremy Clarkson is routinely insulting about people didn’t make his “one eyed Scottish idiot” any more acceptable. Alf Garnett would be proud that you approve of his attitudes.”

    1. I don’t struggle with anything except the punctuation on this site.
    “One eyed” = a third-person, singular verb: as in “When one was younger one eyed up girls (boys) in bars.”
    “One-eyed” [hyphenated] = “has one eye”. It’s an adjective in a physical description.
    2. I’m baffled. Garnett, Clarkson, Souters = illiberal. Robbiealive = liberal. If you’re happy with an illiberal being the chief backer of the SNP, then why not say so. I think you are old enough to remember the very deep offence caused by the idiotic Clause 28.
    3 Yeh, I dish it out sometimes, but then so do you. I’m also happy to take it.

  9. ROBBIEALIVE

    “Yeh, I dish it out sometimes, but then so do you. I’m also happy to take it.”

    I fear that you have little understanding of Anthony’s policy on posting!

    However, to avoid any suggestion of negativity, I am sure that there are some things that you have an understanding of.

  10. @Rob Sheffield

    As a lib dem I welcome the UKIP vote its big trouble for the Tories in key marginals is it persists .FPTP will save LD bacon ironically because UKIP will split the Tory vote
    Also it certainly shows there is no desire return of two party politics !
    The general consensus LD wise seems to be we have bottomed out and now its the Tories turn to feel some electoral heat.
    Question is what effect will it have on the Coalition dynamic now Cameron needs a few favours from Clegg
    UKIP were on 15% in 2009 so that should be there target now.
    Its also fabulous news for Labour all their dreams have come true !

  11. Maybe the EU business last December brought those UKIP voters back to the Conservative fold and maybe they’re drifting away again….

    I mean the polls are now beginning to show a Conservative vote in the low 30s they’re honestly getting down to where the base is – like Labour’s kicks around 28-31%.
    Once again I return to the length and the persistence of the fall in the LibDem polling numbers. It seems as yet to be the recurrent story of events since 2010. This doesn’t mean Labour will hang on to it by any means…
    but it may turn out to be the determining event come a vote in 600 constituencies under FPTP.

    But who am I to predict?

    But dear old Ken speaks to a past rather than a future and maybe that is one reason he isn’t doing that well…

  12. @RICHIEDAW

    “Well looks like a case of the mid term blues to me happens to every govt.”

    No it doesn’t. The conservatives were never rarely close or ahead of Labour in opinion polls for long between 1997 and 2003. Labour didn’t get this far behind in polls until 2007/8, then lost the subsequent election.

  13. I am curious to see in the future if UKIP in the 9-10 % region means they will get more coverage. I am also curious to see if the rising poll number feeds on itself and if more Tories who are on the fence and support UKIP move to it if it remains at this level and therefore becomes a viable alternative/main party.

  14. Personally, quite pleased that I took quite a punt on Ed Miliband as the next PM around two months ago (when the polls weren’t this strong).

    I’ve thought two things for a while:

    1) Ed Miliband is a massively underrated political operator. He saw off his brother, was correct on phone hacking and spot on when he talked of the ‘squeezed middle’ to much mirth around six months before everyone else jumped on that bandwagon.

    2) For Cameron to get a majority he’d have to pull off a feat that – correct me if I am wrong someone – only one sitting Prime Minister did in the whole 20th and 21st centuries – which is to increase their majority in a 2nd election.

  15. Max Hastings in todays Mail –
    ” My point is not about the wickedness of wealth – almost all of us want success to be rewarded; income tax rates in Britain are too high. Most of us simply want to see the super-rich, and especially companies, pay a decent share.

    Democracy works only if there is general consent, or at least acquiescence. This is placed under huge strain if ordinary citizens on modest incomes face frequent quibbles and niggles from Revenue & Customs about a few pounds, while the wealthy get away with murder. This is not the politics of envy, it is the economics of justice.

    If companies and very rich individuals pay pathetically little tax, the burden falls upon the poor saps who cannot or choose not to hide their income and profits.

    Of the Exchequer’s £447billion take last year, income tax raised £153billion, National Insurance £97billion, VAT £84billion and corporation tax about half that.

    It is often, and justly, pointed out that the top 1 per cent of earners contribute 27 per cent of the total income tax take – so the better-off do not get off scot-free. But the super-rich do; and the corporate sector gets away with fiscal murder.

    Companies are even allowed to keep secret what they do pay around the world, which is indefensible. If George Osborne wants to do a good day’s work for a change, he should insist that any company listed on the London Stock Exchange reveals its tax contribution.

    The Chancellor is now being forced to back down over his ‘charity tax’ scheme – his government scarcely needs any more enemies, and he was foolish not to see the beartrap. But he has the right idea with his drive to get very rich people and very rich companies to contribute more to making Britain work.

    At present many big-hitters pay only 10 per cent or 20 per cent on income, if that much. Those of us who passionately believe in capitalism need to be able convince people earning £35,000 or £40,000 a year, and paying 40 per cent tax through PAYE, that our system is fair. Fat chance, as long as so many fat cats get almost a free ride.”

    Taxation of CFCs has also even been picked up by the Tax Journal, who have described it as ‘almost government approved avoidance’ – these are accountants, not left wing campaigners.

    We’re now beginning to see even establishment small c conservative figures starting to come out against some of Osborne’s company and personal tax benefits for the wealthy, and I’m beginning to think that, as @Mike Hartley just observed, Ed M’s ‘squeezed middle’ attack was even more prescient than I thought it was at the time.

  16. Squeezed middle = IMHO the message is bang on but the messenger is totally wrong.

    Have their been any leadership/PM ratings in recent YG polls and the crop of non YG in recent days?

    If so is EdM running alongside, in front of or behind the recent Labour leap.

    @mike Hartley I suspect your money is already lost. Ed is not underrated: he is overrated by most reds.

  17. Robbiealive
    Welcome to the club. You won’t be in front of the House Un-Scottish Activities Committee ..yet
    Benefit Reform?
    lots of people who didn’t vote Labour receive Tax Credits. At the last GE I was a candidate. When speaking to a school hustings in prosperous suburbia, I wasn’t sure how much impact I had on these fairly wealthy kids but at the end the teacher came up to me and said (thinking of the Conservative contribution), “Change my pension and take away my Tax Credits, F— that! Give me your poster.”
    But perhaps the most immediately obvious losers will be businesses in poor areas and local councils.
    One of the most visible impacts of the last Labour government was the huge improvement in the looks of shops in rough housing estates. This was based on the tax credits.
    Also the move to pay all benefit direct to the individual particularly housing benefit beggars belief. Evictions will rocket. Financial problems of councils and housing associations will be enormous. I am afraid T Blair was spot on in his comment quoted above.

  18. The only way I can see UKIP taking a significant hit is if there’s a leadership change in at least one of the three establishment parties. I hope this doesn’t happen because the longer it goes on, the more entrenched UKIP becomes in that battle for third. If they’re allowed to grab a foothold for any decent amount of time then they may just hit that tipping point from where the genie can’t go back in the bottle. Not easily at least.

  19. Twitter rumours have it that tonights YouGov shows UKIP ahead of the Liberal Democrats again.

    Not a blip, then.

  20. @Mike Hartley;

    I get it happening four times in the 21st and 20th centuries. Baldwin won an increased swing in 1924, Wilson won an increased swing in 1966, Asquith won an increased swing in December 1910, and Salisbury won an increased swing in 1900.

    There are also occasions when if the PM is replaced it happens. Eden won an increased swing in 1955, although he’d replaced the previous PM Churchill. Bonar-Law also won an increased swing in 1922 despite having been in office, but he’d replaced Lloyd-George in 1918, so not even from the same party.

    In fairness, every single election where the same PM has increased his share of the vote has been called within a maximum of two years after the first, with the singular exception of Lord Salisbury.

    No sitting Prime Minister since universal suffrage has ever increased their share of the vote. That’s a fact that should make Cameron nervous.

  21. Rob S.
    ST/YG last weekend.

    Well/Badly net score

    Cameron: -26
    Miliband: -44.

    So Miliband’s net (disapproval) compared to Cameron’s is similar to that of Thatcher relative to Callaghan in 1977.

    Remind me what the point was?

  22. Latest YouGov/Sun results 17th April CON 32%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, OTHERS 19%; APP -37 –

  23. @Anthony;

    When are you separating UKIP from Others, then? :P

  24. Mike Hartley,ignore him,your money is well placed.

  25. It is maybe a coincidence, but all EU coalition govts formed in 2010 are in very bad shape (all of them center-right). Two of them (Latvia and Slovakia) have already collapsed for different reasons and have been replaced, after a snap election, in Slovakia by a single-party soc.dem. govt. (2012) and in in Latvia by a different center-right coalition (2011). The others (UK, Sweden, Czech Republic and Netherlands) have considerably lost ground in VI polls, especially in March-April 2012 and none of them would be reelected if elections were held tomorrow. In Sweden the most recent poll (15 April) by TNS-SIFO has the following scores: Soc.Dem. 36.8 (+6.1 from 2010 GE), Greens 9.3 (+2) and Left Party 5.6 (stable). Total Left Alliance: 51.7 (+8.1). Conservatives 29.1 (-1), Liberals 5.1 (-2), Centrists 4.6 (-2), Chr.Dems. 4.0 (-1.6). Total C-R gvt: 42.8 (-6.6). Sweden Democrats (far right) 4.7 (-1). The recent leadership change for the Soc.Dems. appears to be very beneficial for them and for the whole Left coalition, that is for the first time after 2010 GE above 50%. In the Netherlands, where the predictions are usually in seats, the latest Maurice d’Hondt poll has the following numbers: VVD Liberals 31 (=), PVV far right 20 (-4), CDA Chr.Dem. 14 (-7), Total gvt. coalition 65 (-11). Left-wing opposition: Socialist Party (far left) 28 (+13), Labour 24 (-6), D66 Left Liberals 15 (+5), GreenLeft 6 (-4), Party of Animals 3 (+1). Total Left 76 (+9). Christian Union 5 (=), SGP (Christ. fundam.) 3 (+1), Others 1 (+1). The govt. coalition has a majority of just 1 seat (76 out of 150), and this 1 seat is held by an independent, who abandoned the anti-islamic PVV. Within the left, Labour appears to lose ground, but in reality the opposite occurs, last month it was at 14 seats, but after a leadership change, just like in Sweden, it gained 10 seats and hopes to regain first place within the opposition (last month the Socialists were at 32). In the Czech Republic, the latest STEM poll (11 April) gives the following results in seats: ODS (Conservatives, allies of the Tories in EP) 49 (-4 from GE 2010), TOP 09 (center-right, EPP) 23(-18), VV (populist right) 0 (-24). Total c-r gvt: 72 (-46). CSSD Soc, Dem. 88 (+32), Communists 35 (+9). Total Left opposition: 123 (+41), a comfortable OM. The remaining 5 seats would go to the Chr.Dems. that had been ousted from Parliament in 2010. So what we see is that in all 4 countries (UK, Netherlands, Sweden and CR) ALL center-right governing partners lose ground, and this is happening, I think, for the first time.

  26. Encouraging to see a proper Right Wing political Party that espouses low taxes, less immigration as well as leaving the European Union gaining political influence!

    The important poll is the Opinium one with UKIP just 27 points behind Labour (better than the Tories were doing relative to Labour in 1995 and 1996). We now have three polls showing UKIP ahead of the Liberal Democrats, and its the third recent poll showing them in double figures.

    The time has indeed come for Anthony Wells and other pollsters to stop merely including UKIP amongst “Others” and to treat the Party like Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

    The little Swingometer devices on this Site should also be amended to include UKIP. It would be interesting to see what these polls would result in, if replicated at a General Election.

    Ian Pennell