The Evening Standard have released the lastest YouGov London results. Since we are in the campaign proper, these are now also weighted by people’s likelihood to vote, which will continue right up to the election.
First round voting intention figures now stand at JOHNSON 45%, LIVINGSTONE 40%, PADDICK 7%, WEBB 3%, JONES 2%, BENITA 2%, CORTIGLIA 1%. Once second preferences are re-allocated, this becomes JOHNSON 53%, LIVINGSTONE 47%, a six point lead for Boris. This compares to an eight point lead in the last YouGov poll and a six point lead in the ComRes London poll last week.
YouGov’s previous poll was after the allegations about Livingstone’s tax had been made, but before the only wrangles about the release of tax returns, so that does at least not appear to have done any further damage to him.
The poll also asked about London Assembly voting intention, finding figures of CON 35%, LAB 44%, LDEM 11%, Oth 10% in the constituency vote and CON 35%, LAB 46%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5%, GRN 3%, BNP 1% in the list vote. There is a five percent threshhold to gain list seats, so if repeated at the actual election this would give UKIP assembly representation but see the Greens lose theirs. Note also the continuing gap between Labour’s performance and Ken’s – in the assembly votes Labour lead by 9 or 11 points, when it comes to the Mayoral vote Ken trails Boris by 5.
UPDATE: Full tabs are now up here