The Evening Standard have released the lastest YouGov London results. Since we are in the campaign proper, these are now also weighted by people’s likelihood to vote, which will continue right up to the election.

First round voting intention figures now stand at JOHNSON 45%, LIVINGSTONE 40%, PADDICK 7%, WEBB 3%, JONES 2%, BENITA 2%, CORTIGLIA 1%. Once second preferences are re-allocated, this becomes JOHNSON 53%, LIVINGSTONE 47%, a six point lead for Boris. This compares to an eight point lead in the last YouGov poll and a six point lead in the ComRes London poll last week.

YouGov’s previous poll was after the allegations about Livingstone’s tax had been made, but before the only wrangles about the release of tax returns, so that does at least not appear to have done any further damage to him.

The poll also asked about London Assembly voting intention, finding figures of CON 35%, LAB 44%, LDEM 11%, Oth 10% in the constituency vote and CON 35%, LAB 46%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5%, GRN 3%, BNP 1% in the list vote. There is a five percent threshhold to gain list seats, so if repeated at the actual election this would give UKIP assembly representation but see the Greens lose theirs. Note also the continuing gap between Labour’s performance and Ken’s – in the assembly votes Labour lead by 9 or 11 points, when it comes to the Mayoral vote Ken trails Boris by 5.

UPDATE: Full tabs are now up here


76 Responses to “Boris leads by 6 in latest YouGov/Evening Standard poll”

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  1. Presumably all the London mayoral and assembly candidates are happy to have the coalition government continuing to expand London’s subsidies from the rest of the UK?

    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2012/03/29/how-welsh-taxpayers-will-help-reduce-england-s-water-bills-and-fund-london-s-new-sewerage-scheme-91466-30655971/

    We keep getting told how phenomenally rich London is. Why don’t they pay to treat their own sh!t?

  2. Can anyone advise me where I can go for opinion polls on the forthcoming Irish referedum please?

  3. BMRB
    CON 32% (-3), LAB 42% (+4), LD 10% (-1) and Others 16% (-)

    Times Populus telephone poll has CON 33: LAB 42: LD 11

    Source: political betting

  4. TNS-BMRB has:

    CON 32% (-3), LAB 42% (+4), LD 10% (-1) and Others 16% (-)

  5. Times Populus telephone poll has CON 33: LAB 42: LD 11. This is the biggest LAB lead from the firm since the coalition was created.
    BMRB has: CON 32% (-3), LAB 42% (+4), LD 10% (-1) and Others 16% (-)
    This is the largest gap recorded by the firm since the election

  6. Tonight’s Times Populus poll shows Ed Balls level pegging in the ratings with Osborne – the first time that’s happened.

  7. @Academic

    Hmm…it seems as if Big John misled us. Lab +9, +10 is merely a reversion to pre Easter polldrums.

  8. Good Evening, after a very hard day at work.

    ACADEMIC and LIZH and RAF and BIGJOHN.

    Refreshing polls after a hard day in school and meetings.

    LD’s doing very well again.

  9. @RAF
    `Hmm…it seems as if Big John misled us. Lab +9, +10 is merely a reversion to pre Easter polldrums`

    It does show a big shift from Tory to Labour in both polls,unlike other recent polls which showed Tory-UKIP transfer.

  10. @Adrian B – (fpt) “… the collapse in the LD vote (even though most of it has gone to Lab) would actually result in the Cons netting three more seats.”

    Personally I think Con could pick up many more LD seats than Labour, possibly in a ratio of 2:1

    However, as SMukesh points out, the bigger effect will be seen in Conservative marginals. I’m guessing the 2:1 Con:Lab ratio in the event of an LD collapse also entails 5 Con marginals falling to Lab. Therefore effect in any 8 marginal seats could play out as Con -3, Lab +6, LD -3.

  11. Big news in tonight`s Youguv

  12. With regard to the Assembly, the important figure will be if the Conservatives get 8 seats or less. That will mean that even if Boris is elected, the other Parties in the Assembly would be able to alter his budget. That said Labour only had 7 seats when Ken was Mayor in 2004-08 and he survived.

    I wouldn’t be surprised though if the Greens managed to gain seats – as I showed above what little polling there was in the past seems to underestimate the smaller Parties at the expense of the big ones. This is possibly because some voters do not understand the system and give the London-wide vote to their second choice, though many may split their vote for other, more knowledgeable reasons. So the Greens may get something and UKIP may well get more than the seat the poll shows them taking of Richard Barnbrook (ex-BNP).

  13. 11pt LAB lead ukip 3rd

  14. Good evening @CHRISLANE1945
    “LD’s doing very well again.”

    Aren’t they just. :)

  15. CON 32%, LAB 43%, UKIP 9%, LDEM 8%.

    Labour 11% lead

    UKIP lead Liberal Democrats

    It’s a Cleggtastrophy

  16. YG 43/32/9/8

  17. If these figures are right then Con is on the slide and Ken might make it yet. Another few weeks of Government woes…

  18. LIZH
    Good Evening. Good Wigan win as well v the Ars enal

    I can’t work out how to do smiling faces on here.

    I actually do feel for the LD men and women on UKPR.

  19. @John Fletcher

    See h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_European_Fiscal_Compact_referendum,_2012

    It should be under “Thirtieth Amendment of the Constitution (Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union) Bill 2012” but the Wikignomes have gotten all uptighty so there y’go.

    Polls for the referendum are indicating a “yes” vote by a wide margin: no poll has indicated a “no” vote, the “yes” margin is increasing and the “don’t knows” are steadily decreasing.

    Having said that, Ireland holds polls far less often than the UK and previous polls on Ireland EU referenda have been unreliable as predictors of the final result. So your guess is as good as mine.

    Regards, Martyn

  20. con over 60s 32% (2 behind Lab).

    Looks like an outlier to me…but the Tories might be in real trouble if the old aged vote is leaking away.

  21. Well, people. Well, well. Tories on 32, 32 and 33 tonight. And Lab lead by 9, 10 and 11.

    BigJohn I take it back. These are significant scores. I also take Smukesh’s point about the BRMB poll at least.

    OK, it’s true that a few points of the UKIP vote is a Tory protest vote. But that vote gives Lab some momentum. And if LizH is right about a fresh cash for access scandal, then Lab may be moving towards the crucial 10-15% lead range.

    But the real story is the decline in Tory VI. If this continues, it may be enough to hurt Boris, who may in any event be focused more on Downing Street.

  22. @ChrisLane

    Colon, close bracket.

  23. @CHRISLANE1945
    “I actually do feel for the LD men and women on UKPR.”

    I am sure they think it has been worth it. :-)

  24. @Martyn “Sarkozy will lose France in the upcoming elections”

    Not necesarily, last time I checked Sarkozy had drawn ahead in the first round. Even if he doesn’t win the first round it doesn’t really matter, all that matters is the 2nd round.

    In the past few weeks Sarkozy has managed to close a huge gap, after the 1st vote Sunday, he still has a whole extra month to close any gap in the 2nd round. I believe Sarkozy will just edge a win.

  25. @Max OTFCOK

    Er, no: latest as of yesterday have Hollande ahead in both 1st and second round

    h ttp://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2012

    and

    h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2012

    Regards, Martyn

  26. Ah things have changed, last time I checked Sarkozy had indeed pulled ahead in the first round, he’s fa;;en slightly behind since though.

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