Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10% – so the six point Labour lead we’ve had this week remains steady. As ever, I’ll do a proper write up tomorrow when the results appear on the website.

41 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 10”

  1. Con back to 33. Interesting

    AW – Had to run an errand in Crayford today. Is that.your home town?

  2. Perhaps UKIP are closing in on the LDs – although the latter are on double figures this time.

  3. Cons down to 33 does suprise me but the 6 point lead doesnt.

    Maybe the new tax policy on donations filtering through?
    I know this was far from bad press but it still could add to the ‘dont know what your doing’ feeling that has hit the goverment hard the last weeks.

  4. With Con on 33 and Lab on 39 it seems its a reflection of ‘a plague on both your houses’ syndrome, with support for Con coming off worst.

  5. A bit surprised by the Tory numbers as it seemed to be on the up recently…Quite bad Sunday headlines for the Tories…Cameron probably wishes he extended his trip to Burma

  6. Both main parties will be disappointed with this I would say, but I’m not sure these numbers will last too long. I don’t think the Tories are as low as this in reality, but you never know.

    The charity tax story certainly hasn’t helped them, as it has helped continue a thread about duff decisions which does seem to have caught hold of the media. I’ve lost count of the number of articles I’ve read criticising Cameron’s leadership/abilities/attention to detail/media operation etc – mostly from sympathetic sources.

    The coalition dynamics will get seriously interesting if the Tory numbers do stay low. While Cameron was doing relatively well, this spiked both Lib Dem anxiety alongside Tory right wing angst. If Cameron is perceived as damaged, both factions will become emboldened.

    It sounds like it’s already happening over the Green Deal – a totemic Lib Dem environmental policy dreamed up under Chris Huhne, now coming under intense pressure from the Tories. Fun and games on this one.

    What will be fascinating to watch is what effect splits in the coalition have on polling, if any. Under single party government, visible splits tend to be fatal. With the coalition, splits between the two parties seem to be accepted as normal, and and a result there seems to also be less attention to splits within each party. In that sense, perhaps the internal dog fights we are certain to get actually help the government.

  7. Raf – hell no, Crayford is in Greater London. I’m from Dartford, in the fantastic county of Kent.

  8. Only a few miles from Bexleyheath, Anthony, which is Kent with a Dartford Post Code and still I think in Greater London….one time stomping ground of Ted Heath….

    Though even now Men and Kent and Kentish Men confuse me….I’d probably find myself on the wrong side of the river at Rochester….

  9. In reply to “The Sheep” from the previous thread, the figures pertaining to ‘swing back’ are derived from Mark Pack’s historical data (which Anthony recently posted on this site).

    It’s based upon averaging the swing back to the governing party during the eight post-war Tory parliaments. This works out at just over 4%. I posted an analysis of this in February, and hope to update it at the beginning of May, by which time we will be 40% of the way through this parliament.

    Incidentally, although there is a fair amount of variation, there was a swing back to the Tories in almost all cases from this point in the parliament. As I have said before, nothing is inevitable but the general trend is fairly consistent.

    By the way, I refute Crossbat’s previous comment. I am an active member of the Labour Party and want David Miliband to win, but we do ourselves no favours by being delusional. Besides, it doesn’t actually help us to win if we or the public over-estimate our chances – as we found out to our cost in 1992.

    For the record, at the beginning of that year, when I was working at BMRB, I sent my estimate of what the final MORI poll would be before that year’s general election to Bob Worcester (this was a competition run by MORI’s British Public Opinion newsletter). I put down 42:36:18. I might have won the bottle of bubbly had the final MORI eve-of-poll survey been accurate (as it usually was). I remember well the general air of so many Labour activists that year who thought we were bound to win, but I thought otherwise.

    In Hayes & Harlington, where I was active in 1992, a group of activists told me in the final week of the campaign that they were going over into the neighbouring Uxbridge constituency on the grounds that “we’ve won Hayes anyway, so let’s have a shot at winning Uxbridge too”. Well, we ended up losing Hayes by 53 votes, and we lost Uxbridge by a 2:1 margin. Their arrogance was probably fuelled by the fact that we had won Hayes by a notional 15% in the local council elections two years earlier, but they refused to accept my point that there is always a swing back to the governing party. This meant another five years of Terry Dicks as the Hayes MP.

    Our arrogance in that election did us no favours at all. Having said that, I’m well aware that I too make mistakes: I never believed for one minute that we would win the popular vote by 13% in 1997 (though even that represented a significant pro-government swing-back compared to this stage of the parliament).

    We all live and learn, but I simply say this: please do not ignore the lessons of history. We do so at our peril.

  10. @Anthony

    Do you per chance have an alter-ego that lets you air your conservatism unfettered? :)

  11. “Only a few miles from Bexleyheath, Anthony, which is Kent with a Dartford Post Code ” and where I currently reside :)

    But we do our shopping in Sainsbury’s Crayford,

  12. Just to clear things up, I’m from Sevenoaks, but had to move to Bexley to go to a grammar school, but still lived in the Kentish part of Bexley.

  13. @ Robin Hood
    I notice you want David Miliband to win. Are you expecting a new leadership contest any time soon then.

  14. @AW
    “Raf – hell no, Crayford is in Greater London. I’m from Dartford, in the fantastic county of Kent.”

    :) :)

    [For those not from or near the fantastic county of Kent, Crayford is the last station in London Travelcard Zone 6 (London borough of Bexley), just 2 miles and 1 train stop from Dartford].

  15. @Craig

    Speak of the devil ;-).

  16. Sorry Max, didn’t see your post before writing mine.

  17. @Anthony, if you live in Dartford, did you by chance happen to go into the Boots in Dartford in the summer of 2008, if so you may have seen me :)

  18. @RAF

    You seem to know a fair bit of the fantastic county/outer london area, live nearby by any chance?

  19. @Max

    Bromley. Very close to the town centre.

  20. @RAF

    I was going to move to Bromley when I’m older, Bexley is starting to go downhill. Are you in the Kentish part of Bromley?

  21. At 18%, Isn’t it time that the ‘others’ breakdown was given in detail in the headline figures?

    Personally I think UKIP suck very hard indeed, but if they are polling at 12% or whatever, we ought to know about it, no?

    Wouldn’t it enhance the credentials of the polling organisation involved if they did this?

  22. @Max

    Not unless you call the town centre, the “kentish” part. I have a Bromley postcode, and Kent as part of my.postal address, but it is still part of Greater London.

    It’s not like Biggin Hill, Westerham or some other parts of Bromley that actually have Kent postcodes.

    I’ve been to.Sevenoaks a few times. A couple of those were to visit Knowle Park.

  23. @RAF

    Oh it is a strange beast isn’t it, these greater london/kent areas.

    So you have a Bromley postcode, but Kent in the address?

    Where I currently live, it has Kent in the address and a dartford postocde, But it is also part of the greater london area, London Borough of Bexley, and I am allowed to vote in mayoral elections.

  24. Good Morning All. Very sunny beach here in Southbourne Bournemouth.

    From your post last night, I take it that you have information about when David, who won the PLP and CLP vote, will becoming leader of TIGMOO.
    Do you know what position ED will be offered? Shadow of what Ministry?

    Many thanks for an exciting development in UK Politics.

  25. Ukip increasing steadily. How far will it go now that Cameron is no longer trusted to keep his word on EU matters?

  26. This is a much more pro-Lab 2010 sample, 86% of Con (i.e. above par (80%) on the Lefty index).

    The Con retention rate at 81% is hovering around its recent low, but the thing that distinguishes this sample is the LibDem retention rate is up to 40%, with the leakage to Lab down to only 28%. That seems to account for the soft Lab VI on this sample and the (rather high?) 10% for LD.

    There’s still a gender gap showing 3% more F for Lab, 3% more M for Con. Still no polling data to explain this?

  27. Lab need to keep over 40% so that 39% needs to be watched.

    33% for Con…again…and I would say they are on the slide. If they start to dip below 30 it will be time for a General Election.*

    *this might be a bit of wishful thinking

  28. …actually it feeds into the notion that all the traditional parties are losing support.

  29. The budget “rows” seem to me to be transient squalls, and Labour’s rather desperate “Vote NHS Vote Labour” may be energising their core vote but won’t work come 2015.

    All depends on the economy really.

  30. @HAL
    The CON retention on the previous poll was actually lower than this one (78%) and the one before that (80%). Maybe this is a ‘real’ drop in CON support.

    I agree the Libdem to LAB figure is significantly lower than in other polls. This may have suppressed to LAB lead.

    The biggest increase is to the DK party. Well done them!

  31. Robin Hood
    ‘ncidentally, although there is a fair amount of variation, there was a swing back to the Tories in almost all cases from this point in the parliament. ‘

    I don’t think it was true of the 1959 -1964 Parliament. Labour was not exactly powering ahead in Sept 1961.

    Re 1992. The failure to win Hayes & Harlington and a dozen other seats can certainly be put down to Kinnock’s loss of control at the Sheffield rally a few days earlier.

  32. What will “stick” after the budget row and jerrycangate?

    I still think the cut in tax for the highest paid, and next year new pensioners not getting increased tax allowance.

    But that 5% cut for the highest earners is what ahs hit them, and will continue to do so. Every austerity measure and “no alternative” statement is undone by the cut…it shows that the no alternative applies to cutting benefits to the poor, but when it comes to taxing the rich, that’s another matter entirely.

    Big, big mistake. Bigger than the tuition fee rise, bigger than the NHS “reforms”, bigger than planning and forestry stuff and the VAT rise.

    It will continue to resonate and has created a pretty hard 40% anti Tory left and moved some right wingers to other parties.

    How can Osborne fall into such an obvious trap? I suspect it is two reasons…one, since Coulson went they really ARE out of touch with people’s thoughts. They thought the little media consensus with its pro-austerity leaning was public opinion, and that the “luffer curve” would resonate like the overspent credit card. They got public opinion all wrong.

    Second…could it be he really believes that the 5% cut for the richest will boost the economy? I mean, really?

  33. Today’s INDEPENDENT has interviews withClegg , relating his “obsession” with improving child care, nursery provision, recruiting 65,000 state nannies, etc [which for some reason conjures up in my mind multiple images of Hattie Jacques, a “national treasure” avant la lettre].
    The interviews were “soft”: no questions were asked about frozen child allowance, or the attack on Labour’s achievements; egs, cuts in Sure Start Centres, Tax Credits, etc, schemes which had greatly improved child-care provision.
    It is unfortunate that new British governments feel they must always be reinventing the wheel. This is an area where the LDs probably have much more in common with Lab than they do with the Tories, although Clegg, in our immature system, has to pretend the opposite.

  34. NBeale

    “Labour’s rather desperate “Vote NHS Vote Labour” may be energising their core vote but won’t work come 2015.

    All depends on the economy really.”

    On the other hand the coaliton’s rather desperate faith in the economy may be comforting their core vote but won’t work come 2015.

    If there a turnround, 2015 will be far too late for it to be seen to start if the coalition is to benefit. It won’t can’t overnight, and won’t do if it starts the day before the election.

    The turnaround needs a gradual, steady, improvement in feel good.Starting from where we are now it requires 18 months at a minimum.

    In the same way, a steady supply of pratfalls over a similar perion, but allready started will create a lasting impression of incompetance, which will cause the polling to frighten the right, damaging morale and self-discipline. This will feed on itself by turning the blame on DC creating the impression of a party that is unsure of what it wants and is unfit to govern.

    If that takes hold, a late improvement in performance or the economy, will make no difference.

    Labour only needs to avoid making crass mistakes.

    They arn’t good at doing that and the independence vote will give them plenty of opportunity to compete with the ConLibDems for the reputation of being least fit to run a Sunday School picnic – never mind a government.

  35. Am I the only one who thinks that it is far too early for Conservative/Labour supporters on here to predict the likely outcome of the 2015 GE? I have to say I think a lot of the posts on this forum are just biased, wishful thinking on the part of the participants. We’ve seen already how the voting intention has fluctuated greatly over relatively unimportant/insiginifcant political events. My honest opinion is that the result of the next GE pretty much hangs in the balance and will continue to do so until at least mid 2014/early 2015. To interpret polls/ likely outcomes along party lines is neither helpful nor insightful.

  36. Big offer by Milliband regarding funding…No empty gestures for him…Maybe he has the mettle after all

  37. “Am I the only one who thinks that it is far too early for Conservative/Labour supporters on here to predict the likely outcome of the 2015 GE? ”

    Well it’s going to be one of the 2, so it’s a 50/50.

  38. Fascinating to see the Olympics question breakdowns. It very clearly shows that LibDems are from the south (much more into sea-sports) and that Tories are more for upper-class sports (although the Lib-Dems are the biggest dressage fans…).
    Also funny: No difference between regions on the question of splitting Team GB into its nations (all are 80 for 10 against 10 DK).

    As for the political questions, I noticed that EM is now less unpopular amongst Tories than DC is amongst labour supporters.
    I watched the Budget debate on BBC Parliament yesterday, and must say that EM is actually quite good. Can’t see him going anywhere anytime soon (famous last words….)

  39. this is reminiscent of the polling after the expenses scandal about 3 years ago. a swing from Lib/Lab/Con to everyone else who hasn’t ever been in power, a sort of upscale “time for a change” situation. Interesting.

  40. “Also funny: No difference between regions on the question of splitting Team GB into its nations (all are 80 for 10 against 10 DK).”

    So are you saying that all 4 countries want to split for the Olympics? We would never get so high in the leaderboard if we split. You don’t see USA competing as 50 different states, or the old USSR and Yugoslavia when they were around they entered as one entity not all their separate ones.

    I don’t get why in sports we still insist on being independent. For example, our football teams are all rubbish, if we combined to make a GB football team, we’d obviously have a better shot.