Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%. The six point Labour lead is bigger than the four pointer yesterday, but it’s still significantly lower than the ten point leads we were regularly seeing before Easter. Perhaps the damage the budget did to the Conservatives is fading. Let’s wait and see where things settle…


233 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%”

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  1. @Leftyhampton

    To neutralise the Tory leadership card, Labour needs an effective front bench, both in terms of policy and with the media.

    I think.the electorate would accept a medeocre media performer as leader, who was merely primo inter pares provided that his colleagues had a little more charisma.

  2. @LeftyLampton

    What are you referring to, when you say a cack-handed attempt at a coup by Blairites?

  3. Craig

    The concerted sniping at Miliband (under the guise of “helpful criticism”) that we saw from numerous figures within the Labour party in January. Glasham was the most up front, but there were numerous unattributed criticisms from within the party quoted in the press.

    Too much of a coincidence that it happened immediately after Labour had been rocked back on their heels by the Euro Veto (sic). It seemed at the time that it was an effort to mortally wound Miliband.

  4. @leftylampton – “… yet another cack-handed attempt by Blairites”

    I’m not disagreeing with you (and not expecting you to agree with me on this ;) ), however, the Blairite tag gets overused. I posted on this a while ago, Labourites colluding in a lazy journalistic trope. Blair and Brown, every policy shade protrayed as a personality clash (copyright A Rawnsley). Quite funny to look at the lists that have been compiled of who belonged to which camp… “Darling – leading Brownite”.

    On this board one could not mention David Miliband during the leadership campaign without being howled down amidst “Blairite” insults – even though his first appointment was courtesy of John Smith, and another of the candidates (Burnham) was considered “OK” dispite being generally considered to have held more/equally avowed “Blairite” positions.

    Generations of Labour politicians have had to make their various ways under the shadow of these two figures. Blair especially, has in many ways so trancended Labour party politics that the label is misleading now imo; another lazy trope, the need for a narrative equivalent to Thatcherism.

    That said, Miliband started from a position where he had a relatively small coterie of admirers (plus a few enemies among the “Brownites”) who saw something very special in him… he needs to inspire that same confidence among a wider circle of his colleagues to build an unstoppable team.

  5. @Billy Bob, JayBlanc, Lefty L & Smukesh

    There are a surprisingly large number of supposedly left-leaning posters on these pages, and I exclude you four entirely from the charge, who seem strangely keen to whistle Tory tunes about Labour’s leader and the party’s electoral prospects. This is either defeatism on their part or they’re being disingenuous. Maybe it’s a little bit of both but, either way, it’s odd and quite baffling. Firstly, though, let’s get all the caveats out of the way. There is no room for complacency on the back of the mildly encouraging polls at present and there are plenty of political scenarios that could result in any number of electoral outcomes in 2015, including a majority Conservative government. There’s nothing remotely immutable about current circumstances and those keen to issue persistent doom and gloom forecasts for Labour could, conceivably, be proved right. They could be proved wrong too, however.

    So, the above caveats aside, what might be reasons not to write off Labour and Miliband for an election that is still over three years away? First on the list for me is the electoral weakness of the Conservative Party. This is no longer the “formidable electoral beast” that Major once famously referred to in the early 90s, and certainly not the party that held such political and electoral sway, with the odd interruption, from 1951 to 1997. Demographically, geographically and organisationally, they are a significantly shrunken force, hardly winning a by-election in the last 22 years and failing to obtain a 40% vote share in any of the four GEs since 1992. Neither have they achieved that figure very often in the Euro or Local elections over the same period. This changes the rules of engagement for 2015 utterly, almost totally invalidating any comparisons to the GEs of the 80s; a favourite pastime for the Labour “we’re all doomed” merchants!

    Secondly, and this is the point Lefty L quite rightly reminds us of, the centre left vote has been virtually reunited, probably for the first time since the 60s. Again, a total re-writing of the current rules of engagement. Accordingly, predicting the outcome of the 2015 GE on the basis of comparisons to any general elections that have taken place since 1970 is, frankly, for the birds. Government “clawback” and “minimum mid-term poll leads for oppositions” theories need to be entirely re-thought and re-written.

    Of course, I still hedge my bets, as any sensible person would. Labour aren’t on course to win in 2015, but neither are they destined to lose. Miliband isn’t “doomed”, but he can’t rely on some of the natural political gifts, and circumstantial good fortune, of a Tony Blair. His is a larger and heavier stone to roll up a steeper hill, and we mustn’t forget the SNP factor too, but it’s eminently do-able and neither he, nor his party, are in a particularly bad place at all at the moment. For those who think they are, I refer you to Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock and a decade called the 1980s!

    That said, if and when tonight’s YouGov poll shows the Labour lead down to 3%, I fully expect the usual suspects to post that the “clawback” has now begun and that Miliband must be ditched immediately!

  6. David

    Could you please provide a source for this ‘detailed analysis’? Thanks in advance.

    I believe it was the day after the budget, or the following day when the Times gave a detailed analysis including a range of scenarios of different types of people. This showed the pensioners to be better off. However, the headlines in particular and the detail stated that the pensioners would be worse off.

  7. Jolubecohada

    ‘The “claptrap” about the pensions increase is coming from you not the media. Your comments are naive in the extreme.’

    I do not recall your name on this site before. You clearly do not understand or just ignore the policy. Although most of us are partisan in some way or the other it is rare for any contributor whether labour, LD or Tory to try to silence those with whom they disagree with agressiveness and insults. I do hope you will learn to accept the general protocol which has made this site so effective and popular.

    In my view the right wing media are against the Coalition; as a LD I find this not surprising as they have always criticised us. However, there are a range of views on this although I believe that there is a strong feeling of resentment by the far Tory right to current coalition policies.

  8. RAF

    It is undoubtedly true that the Tory press has harmed the Tory vote. And I think there is a substantial risk this will continue after the elections. They seem to have come to the conclusion that their is an elitosm about Osborne

    I agree. The other points you make are true also but this still does not mean that many pensioners who vote Tory may feel that they have not been hit in the way the right wing media suggested they would be.

  9. CROSSBAT 11
    Good Evening.

    ED Miloband should be ditched immediately.

    He will not be ditched, TIGMOO wil go with him into the last ditch, she always does.

    A new generation will have to take over an hope to win in 2025, by which time I will be 70, and not many Lanes live on earth that long, so I will watch from that place.

  10. Chris Lane,should we summon an ambulance,you sound
    terribly depressed.It is saturday night,lighten up please.

  11. @Ann (In Wales) Re Depressed Chris – I was going to try and cheer him up by telling him not to worry about what happens in 2025 as there’s no such place as heaven anyway so he won’t have to watch politics here.

  12. CHRISLANE1945

    When that time comes, I trust that you will be looking downwards, not upwards, on events on Earth! :-)

  13. ANN in WALES. OLD NAT, ALEC.

    I feel very well thank you comrades at this stage, however I am very worried about Man Citeh’s challenge to United.

    Not looking from above, too presumptious to think that I will have been good enough to be there immediately, lol as they say.

    An excellent 11K run today, and looking forward to my 102nd term in state school teaching, unless a mean OLNAT ‘eases me out’.

    RAF. Primus or Primo inter pares?
    To be cheerful now:
    Labour’s leadership is ishowing passion, panache, connectivity with the voters, humour, hope, optimism, poetry, irony in arguing with the Government, positing attractive values, summed up in some memorable phrases, being pro active, connecting with the media, honing the TIGMOO organisation.

  14. 1945 or 1964 or 1997?

  15. “Not looking from above, too presumptious to think that I will have been good enough to be there immediately, lol as they say.”

    Gah, you Catholics and your non-scripturally based theologies. :-P. Rest assured if crucified bandits get fast track entry, you shouldn’t face any problems. ;-).

  16. Besides British politics is, surely, purgatory enough. Particularly for an incurable pessimist like yourself.

  17. @Chris Lane

    “primo/primus inter pares”

    Lol :) Sometimes my Spanish interferes with my Latin. “Primo” is Spanish for cousin. Make of that what you will.

  18. HANNAH>
    Au Contraire.
    Book of Maccabbes.

    Laudamus mecum ante omnia.( LMAO)

  19. @ChrisLane1945

    I don’t think you’re ever going to change your mind about Ed Miliband, and I think I’ve stated my case enough for us to now amicably agree to disagree. Our respective cases cannot be proved for some years anyway and, until then, we may be expending so much hot air, as well as exhausting the patience of our many readers!

    Changing the subject, briefly, it’s that famous old squeaky bum time again for old Fergie as my beloved Villa travel to OT tomorrow. If we upset the apple-cart up there, and we need a point or two to guarantee safety. a blue moon may be rising over Manchester on Sunday evening!

    “Blue Moon
    You saw me standing alone
    Without a dream in my heart
    Without a love of my own”

    Ghosts of Franny Lee, Colin Bell, Tony Book, Joe Corrigan, Neil Young, Malcom Allison and Joe Mercer, to name but few. Joe was the first Manager of the Villa I ever remember in the early 60s. Lovely man was old Joe and a fine coach who produced some very promising young Villa teams that became known as the Mercer Minors. As always with the daft old Villa, early promise was allowed to run into the sand.

    These old City ghosts could be coming to haunt you Chris.

  20. @ Crossbat11

    Yes indeed, there are quite a few supposedly Red posters who bend over backwards to put a good case forward for the Blues and Yellows,,,One in particular was saying what a good modernising fellow Francis Maude is a week or so ago..

  21. EWEN LIGHTFOOT

    @”,One in particular was saying what a good modernising fellow Francis Maude is a week or so ago”

    Very well remembered .

    However, lefties will dump their “Nice Tories” ( Clarke/Heseltine/Portillo etc.) without a thought if they become a more potent weapon as a “Bad Tory” , than as a “nice” one.

    Maude is now more useful as Fuel Panic Man, than he was as Reforming Liberal Fighting the Right Wing Backwoodsmen.

    It’s a precarious life as a Tory Liked by Labour .

    :-)

  22. @Ewen

    In case you’re referring to me (I’m sure you aren’t, but.just in case):

    (a) I’m not a Red. I was a Yellow until the Yellows entered into Coalition with the Tories. Before then I was a Red only once, at my.first GE in 1997;
    (b) I have been a defender of Ed’s policy direction and,against Blairite triangulation. You should be confident about,yourself not constantly trying to outflank your opponents;and
    (c) I did say I saw Maude as a moderniser. What I probably should have said is that he wasn’t/isn’t a vocal advocate of Thatcherism. He may well be a Thatcherite but he comes across as a reasonable, urbane gentleman. He certainly doesn’t strike me as a dog-whistle type. He was also part of the moderate Major government and signed,the Treaty on European,Union (Maastrict Treaty) in 1992.

  23. Two more horses killed in the annual barbarity at Aintree.

    Pity the punters can’t be whipped over the fences, until they collapse in their own jug of Pimms.

  24. Colin, I could not agree with you more.Sheer cruelty to
    animals and all for the sake of superficial and vacuous
    entertainment and money making nonsense.

  25. Totally agree with the comments about the National. I dont watch it or bet on it anymore – it’s nothing other than cruelty. Get rid of the fences or get humans to do it, just seems pointless to put the horses through the trauma of it.

    Is there no YouGov poll tonight?

  26. Colin/Ann

    Must agree with you. Far better to farm the horses for meat.

  27. No polls tonight?

  28. Old Nat,For shame.Not worthy of you.

  29. Maude is cut out for government, not for opposition.
    He’s saved the country a lot of money.

    I didn’t know what a Jerrycan was until the recent fuss.

  30. ‘Two more horses killed in the annual barbarity at Aintree.
    Pity the punters can’t be whipped over the fences, until they collapse in their own jug of Pimms.’

    Agree.

    And then some argue it’s the greatest horse race on earth. Have they not heard of the Melbourne Cup in Australia- a flat race and horses are meant to run – which has a National Holiday for it? Thai annual barbarity needs do to be dropped and all horse races be strictly flat.

    Let'[s have some comparative awareness and less cruelty to horses.

  31. Joe James B,and now you know what a jerrycan is ,can
    you tell us how this knowledge has enriched your life?

  32. @Joe James B – “He’s saved the country a lot of money.”

    Past tense? Even optimists agree any savings will not be apparent for another ten years, because of the costs of the “bonfire”/”clammy barbeque”. (Osborne’s deficit is not shrinking.)

    I92 (out of 1,100+) quangos to be axed? Only one in five of the 192 have actually been abolished, the vast majority live on in another form – they perform a neccessary function.

    “Our studies found that of all quangos, 15 of them spend 80% of the money. So unless you cut the function altogether, you’re not going to be saving a great deal of money.”

    Sir Ian Magee (senior fellow at the Institute of Government).

  33. BILLY BOB

    @”(Osborne’s deficit is not shrinking.)

    God this sort of think is tedious.

    Yes it is :-

    09/10 £ 157 BN *
    10/11 £ 137 BN *
    11/12 £ 126 BN **

    * Outurn
    **Forecast 2012 BUdget Red Book

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