Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%. The eight point lead is the lowest Labour lead for a week from YouGov, but it’s well within the normal margin of error for the ten point leads that YouGov have been typically showing since the budget and cash4access story.

Also out today was some new polling for Lord Ashcroft (which I assume was conducted by Populus, certainly the cross-breaks match Populus’s house style). This has topline figures, with changes from Populus’s poll a week ago, of CON 32%(-2), LAB 41%(+3), LDEM 11%(nc), Others 16%(nc), producing a nine point lead for Labour.

Ashcroft also reasked the Populus party image questions from a week ago, finding some sharp drops in perceptions of the party. The proportion who thought the Conservatives were “honest and principled” was down 6 points to 27%, “competent and capable” down 9 points to 37%, “for ordinary people, not just the better off” down 8 to 23%, “has clear ideas” down 7 points to 37% and “has a good team of leaders” was down 9 points to 37%.

Slightly more surprisingly most of Labour’s ratings were also down – including a 7 point drop in the people who think they have a good team of leaders and the proportion who think they are united. They also fell on being honest, competent and having clear ideas. Perhaps the people who responded to the survey were just a more cynical lot than Populus’s sample a week ago, or perhaps stories about party funding just re-inforce negative perceptions of all parties.

163 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%”

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  1. That is still only a 10% lead – we’ve seen that before recently – why is this especially bad news for Cameron as trailed earlier?

  2. Are the YouGov results up already?

  3. Tony Dean

    That is a 1% lead over UKIP you have there !!!

  4. Well deduced Lefty!

  5. Yes Rob – but theirs is ever so evenly spread, and the LDs very concentrated!

  6. “Wouldn’t it be great if we saw the right wing vote split between Con & Ukip (with a few for LD) just like Lab/SDP in the 80s?”
    Wouldn’t a likely scenario, if there were a major split, that Cons wouldn’t make the same mistake as Labour did and adopt PR?

    That would give Con + UKIP + LD an easy majority (Although over the issue of Europe, an uncomfortable one).

  7. @Lefty Lampton (7.54)

    “If the party is, at heart, a centre left third party then what purpose does it have in a FPTP system, other than to split the left vote and clear the path to power for the Tories?”

    Speaking personnally I would say that it provides a home for those of a slightly left persuassion who do not feel comfortable with Labour.

    I was a Labour Party member until the time of Michael Foot as leader. For various reasons, since then and until recently, I have felt that the Social Democrats/Lib Dems were the home for me. I would not have been happy voting Lab and as I indicated previously, will not be voting Lab in 2015.

    In response to your point re the Lib Dems splitting the left vote letting in the Tories under our FPTP system. I would suggest that this rarely happens as in most constituencies the Lib Dems do well where they are the second party to Lab or second party to Cons. Where it is a straight Lab/Con fight the Lib Dems are normally insignificant. Thus a LD victory will still provide a left of centre MP although perhaps not the left of centre MP you would prefer.

  8. Tories at 32? I’ve been talking about them straying into Michael Howard territory, but 32% is positively William Hague-esque. In fact, we’re approaching John “Pooter” Major country now! lol

    UKIP hot on the heels of the Lib Dems leads one to start to speculate on how soon it will be before we no longer think of Clegg’s Rump as the third party in British politics. If I was Nigel Farage I’d get rehearsing for those Leadership Debates in April 2015!

  9. @Lefty Lampton (7.54)
    “If the party is, at heart, a centre left third party then what purpose does it have in a FPTP system, other than to split the left vote and clear the path to power for the Tories?

    I have always supported PR- and I always will.

    If not in large part because then I could be a member of a centre left social democratic party: and not have to spend hours arguing long settled debates in tedious meetings with out-of-touch Stalinists!


    yes, they are in a mess, but I agree with TONY DEAN that they will hold on in core areas of liberalism. I would like to see the man who offered the straight choice fall though

  11. chrislane1945

    Today of all days.

    (JC not popular in his time)

    Dunno. His poll nos were really good on Sunday

    On the Sunday a few women saw him, and their PLEDGES that they had seen him were not believed by his mates.

  13. chrislane1945

    Obviously I meant last Sunday (I don’t usually predict poll numbers). :)

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