The full tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here, covering the budget, fuel strikes and party donations.

On the regular leadership trackers there is a sharp fall for David Cameron, down to minus 27 from minus 11 a week ago. This is his lowest approval rating as Prime Minister (and I think as during his time as leader of the opposition too, though I don’t have them all collated in one place. I think his lowest then was minus 26). Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg’s ratings are also down slightly, Miliband to minus 41 (from minus 37), Clegg to minus 53 (from minus 46).

YouGov repeated the overall budget question from last week now there has been a further week for news of the budget to sink in (and for people to row over pasties… a move the poll found 69% in disagreement with). A week ago 24% thought the budget would be good for the economy, 34% bad. That’s now fallen to 13% good, 45% bad.

Turning to the fuel strike, 25% would support a strike by fuel tanker drivers, 52% would oppose it. If it did go ahead, two thirds of people (66%) would support using the army to deliver petrol supplies. On the government’s handling of the strike threat so far, an overwhelming 86% of people think they have handled it badly (59% think they have handled it “very badly”). This includes 78% of Tory voters who think they have handled the strike threat badly.

On party funding and donations, the figures suggest people are equally negative towards both the two main parties. 68% think donors have a lot or a fair amount of influence over Conservative policies, 69% think the same about Labour; only 25% of people trust David Cameron to be honest about his relationships with Conservative donors, only 24% trust Ed Miliband to be honest about his relationships with Labour donors.

68% of people think that British politics are very (21%) or fairly (47%) corrupt, 56% think it is probably true that policies have been changed in exchange for donations, 80% think it is probably true that honours have been given in exchange for donations. On the specifics of the Cruddas case, just over half (53%) think that he was telling the truth and the Tory donors really would get preferential access and influence.

Moving forward, just over half (53%) would support a cap on individual donations to parties, with 63% and 62% supporting caps on business and union donations respectively.


371 Responses to “Full report on the YouGov/Sunday Times survey”

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  1. @Phil – “… populist messages from the left can appeal.”

    Do you mean this line of gab?

    “George speaks at one of the numerous house meetings he addressed over the weekend.”

    Honestly… it will only be 12 minutes out of your life:

    h
    ttp://www.votegeorgegalloway.com/2012/03/george-galloway-i-am-labour.html

    @Old Nat

    Thanks for the Lallands Peat Worrier link – I would run out of fag packets fast with those kind of calculations.

    On ALDC… it would be a shame if the formidable reputation for organisation was slipping.

  2. nickp @ oldnat

    “A Tory Government at Westminster is a boost for SNP support?”

    Any UK government which is incompetent, ignorant of rural Scottish demography and topography and insensiive to Scottish sensibiliies is a boost for the SNP. The Conservatives, with only one MP in Scotland are at a disadvantage here, but Labour, focused as they are on Middle England and London led are capable of missing an opportunity to present a sufficiently differentiated alternative.

  3. @ Amberstar
    “The [apostrophe] bug must be virulent in Scotland, as it’s run riot in the post by Cairns.”
    Which post by Cllr Cairns? Where has he used the it’s v its apostrophe incorrectly?”

    At the risk of boring posters by my tardy response to yr challenge: 02.04.7.10 pm, Cairns contains the following.
    “Not all Pm’s need to follow America” “It,s back to triangulation” “I’d Scotland left NATO etc” & “We have a deterrent that is I’ll suited to the opponents we might face”.
    Not one feels a poster who is comfortable with the apostrophe.

  4. If we look at the YouGov polling just before the last election and compare to now, it’s interesting (latest poll in brackets):

    Overall Con 35 (33) Lab 28 (43) LD 28 (8)

    Lon Con 43 (28) Lab 20 (49) LD 28 (11)

    Rest of south Con 39 (44) Lab 18 (33) LD 35 (11)

    Mid Wal Con 36 (33) Lab 31(43) LD 23 (6)

    North Con 29 (27) Lab 40 (55) LD 25 (4)

    Sco Con 21 (18) Lab 37 (30) LD 23 (12) SNP 17 (35)

    The Con vote has only just started to slip overall, but the picture is lopsided because they have actually increased their vote share in the heartlands of the South. They are clinging on in the Midlands but everywhere else is lost. The bright spot for them is the rise of the SNP in Scotland, but this is a bit of a mixed blessing. That rise in vote intention in the rest of the south is telling as it shows the polarisation setting in.

    Is there a chart somewhere that shows the actual voting % in the 2010 election broken into YouGov’s crossbreaks?

  5. @Phil – “… populist messages from the left can appeal.”

    You may have a point, certainly in a French context. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the charismatic far-left firebrand whose anti-capitalist stance has seen him rise sharply in the French presidential polls, now stands at 10% and he has an outside chance of pipping Le Pen for 3rd place in the first round of voting that takes place in a few weeks time. Sarkozy is obviously hoping he may split the Left vote, and he’ll obviously take some support away from Hollande in the first round, but should Hollande make it into the run off with Sarkozy, the Luc Mélenchon votes should come back to him. According to the latest polls, Hollande is still firm favourite to beat Sarkozy in a run off even though Sarkozy could win the first round of voting.

    The French far left tradition has always been quite strong and I remember as recently as the 1970s when George Marchais, the French Communist Leader, used to win a significant proportion of the vote in Presidential elections. In fact Mitterand was dependent on this large Communist vote when he won in 1981. Enrico Berlinguer, the Italian Communist leader, was also a prominent and influential figure in Italian politics at about the same time as Marchais. In the UK, the Marchais and Berlinguer vote generally went to Labour which was then the “broad church” of Harold Wilson fame. Leading Labour lights of that era, like Heffer, Mikado, Litterick and Cryer would probably have been perfectly comfortable in Marchais’s PCF or Berlinguer’s PCI.

    It’s extraordinary to reflect, is it not, that as recently as the early 70s, the French Communist Party registered over 20% of the vote in national elections and that, more extraordinary still, Berlinguer’s PCI gained 34.4% of the vote in the Italian general election of June 1976! We were just paving the way for Thatcherism at that time!

    Ah, those far off, long forgotten days of my student youth. There was revolution in the air, you know! lol

  6. Con vote share at elections since 1997

    97 30.7%
    01 31.7%
    05 32.4%
    10 36.1%

    In opposition they were improving vote share gradually election by election. But can they do that in Government? I’ve said for a long time that I just don’t think that’s how it works. Governments retain votes rather than gain them.

  7. Can someone explain what would happen in regard to Westminster, if Scotland were to become independent.

    Say in 2014, Scotland votes for independence in a referendum and in 2015 Labour wins a general election, with a majority of 30. The Labour government would then not allow any legislation to be passed that enables independence before the next GE date say May 2020. If independence happened before 2020 in this case, Labour would lose their majority in Westminster.

    If I am right, there is no chance of Scotland becoming independent before May 2020.

  8. r huckle

    If labour win the General Election with a big majority, they could hold another Scottish referendum asking:

    “Now that we’ve kicked the Tories out of the Westminster Parlaiment, do you want to stay in the UK and make sure they don’t get in again?

    Yes
    No

  9. crossbat11 @ Phil

    Where is Tommy Sheridan when you need him?

    Where?

    Oh!

  10. R Huckle

    “Can someone explain what would happen in regard to Westminster, if Scotland were to become independent.

    Say in 2014, Scotland votes for independence in a referendum and in 2015 Labour wins a general election, with a majority of 30. The Labour government would then not allow any legislation to be passed that enables independence before the next GE date say May 2020. ”

    If the referendum is won decisively by the SNP there will be an expectation of progress in less than six years. In fact, it must be complete by the anniversary of the Declaration of Arbroath

    If the election in 2015 includes Scotland, notwithstanding a “Yes” vote, and even perhaps if here is a “No” vote, the SNP representation at Westminster may be sufficient to hold the balance.

    Try and look a it as self-determinantion, and a right to be claimed rather than a favour to be granted by the UK parliament.

  11. @NickP – “… they have actually increased their vote share in the heartlands of the South.”

    So, losing out everywhere that matters, and pilling up votes where it matters not?

    Con/Lab/LD 2010:

    North East: 23.7%, 43.6%, 23.6%
    North. West: 31.7%, 39.4%, 21.6%
    Yorks. and Humber: 32.8%, 34.4%, 22.9%
    East Midlands: 41.2%, 29.8%, 20.8%
    West Midlands: 39.5%, 30.6%, 20.3%
    East: 47.1%, 19.6%, 24.1%
    London: 34.5%, 36.6%, 22.1%
    South East 49.3%, 16.2%, 26.2%
    South West: 42.8%, 15.4%, 34.7%

    England: 39.5%, 28.1%, 24.2%
    Scotland: 16.7%, 42.0%, 18.9%
    Wales: 26.1%, 36.2%, 20.1%

    Full table showing 1997-2010 (and PC/SNP):

    h
    ttp://www.earlhamsociologypages.co.uk/genelection2010.htm

  12. billybob

    Thanks for that. It looks like the Tory voters’ wish to all live together in the southern shires might cost them dear electorally.

  13. Robbiealive

    I suspect Cllr Cairns’ punctuation problems are less due to being uncomfortable with the apostrophe than with being too comfortable with the iPhone[1]

    [1] Other bits of machinery for destroying your prose with predictive text are also available.

  14. [Reposting to try to avoid moderation]

    Interesting things happening after a London mayor phone-in. Boris screaming “you’re a [bleep] liar” repeatedly at Ken. Ken got the issue of Boris’s tax into the discussion, which obviously Boris didn’t like.

    And now Ken has found a weak spot, there’s no doubt he’ll keep on at it. There is going to be continued focus on Boris’s tax until he makes some form of disclosure.

    I suspect that the main reason Boris doesn’t want a focus on his tax isn’t because he’s been doing anything majorly wrong, but because he doesn’t want people knowing quite how much he earns.

    But, my suspicion is that the tax thing won’t have any major effect, but reports of Boris ranting and swearing may well do a great deal of harm to his image as an amiable buffoon.

  15. I posted on the Boris-Ken spat, but keep getting moderated. Hopefully AW will tidy up whatever needs tidying up. IN the meantime, have a look at the Guardian reports:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2012/apr/03/boris-johnson-and-ken-livingstone-live-hustings-transport-london

  16. 1997/2001/2005/2010

    Con:30.7%, 31.7%, 32.4%, 36.1%
    Lab: 43.2%, 40.7%, 35.2%, 29.0%
    LD: 16.8%, 18.3%, 22.0%, 23.0%

    To get a OM under new boundaries (and allowing for a worst case upset in Scotland) Labour really need to dial their vote share back to 2001 levels, peg the Con vote back to somewhere between the 2005-2010 share, and send the LDs back to their 1997 level.

  17. @John B Dick – “Try and look a it as self-determinantion, and a right to be claimed rather than a favour to be granted by the UK parliament.”

    Absolutely. Total change of midset needed by some Westminster politicians, of all parties.

    Having said that, the SNP and Scots dabbling with the though of independence also need to think very hard. ‘Independence’ sounds like a very straightforward concept, but in reality it could mean many different things. The idea of ‘voting for independence’ is completely bogus until and unless ‘independence’ is precisely defined.

    This means the big questions of NATO, currency, EU etc as well as a host of smaller issues, such as the division of assets paid for or owned by collective UK citizens. This is far more complex than drawing a line on the map, and will include calculations based on the proportions of investment that came from south of the border and discussions as to whether this would need to be repaid, much as if two friends sharing a mortgage would be expected to buy out each others share if the agreement was terminated.

    I’ve also previously posted on my view that Scottish tax payers are duty bound to fully fund the entire costs associated with the negotiation process. This will be extremely expensive, and I see no reason for any English resident to pay a penny towards this.

    In sum, I’m completely with @John B Dick on the attitude to independence – it’s there for the Scot’s if that is what they want. I’m equally firm that whatever decision the Scot’s take, they should know precisely what it is they are choosing for themselves and that they pay every last penny/cent/groat of the costs of getting it.

  18. 40% will do it for Lab. It will nearly do it for Con.

    I think it highly unlikely both Lab & Con will get 40% but if they do…under the new boundaries both parties in the 280s and LD with about 7.

    SNP might be kingmakers.

  19. I think it’s unlikely the Scots will adopt the groat as its currency, but you never know.

  20. The fall of the house of Murdoch…

    James has resigned as chairman of BSkyB

  21. Boris vs Ken

    Buffoon vs Newt. It’s all good fun.

  22. “Buffoon v Newt”
    ——————–
    I like Boris very much but I hope Ken wins.

    On the Nanny State Snooping front I expect the new powers will be the thin end of the wedge. Someday, when my library books are overdue, the Big Society Thoughts & Unpaid Fines & Outstanding Warrants & Everything Else Police will track my location , turn on the blues-and-twos and come and get me.
    :-(

  23. Ozwald

    …and rightly so, don’t you realise there are people waiting to read those books?

  24. @NickP

    “40% will do it for Lab. It will nearly do it for Con.
    I think it highly unlikely both Lab & Con will get 40% but if they do…under the new boundaries both parties in the 280s and LD with about 7.
    SNP might be kingmakers.”

    John Curtice was quite interesting on this on the Radio 4 Today programme this morning. He said that the Boundary Commission had done a pretty good job equalising constituency sizes and the in-built advantage Labour had under the old arrangements had now been more or less removed. However, he went on to say, because by the time that the new constituencies will be contested the population figures will be four years out of date, he felt Labour would still enjoy a slight advantage. This would be because the migration from urban (Labour) areas to rural (Tory) areas will have continued and, with the low turnout factor more at play in urban constituencies, it will probably still take less voters to elect a MP than a Tory one. The only way this anomaly would be totally removed is greater voter registration and higher turnout.

    “Boris vs Ken
    Buffoon vs Newt. It’s all good fun.”

    The evil of two lessers indeed. Our capital city deserves better and, if I was a Londoner, I’d be one of the 60% who couldn’t be bothered to participate in this ludicrous contest.

  25. @Alan
    Fair cop guv – I will come quietly.

  26. @NickP – “I think it’s unlikely the Scots will adopt the groat as its currency, but you never know”

    Sorry – typo. I meant ‘goat’.

  27. I once did keep some books from Croydon library for more than three months (accruing fines). One night I got a knock on the door from a woman in a semi-policelike uniform demanding the books back.

    I gave them to her, but I would have taken them back eventually. Honest.

  28. alec

    tee hee

    I need to leave this subject hurriedly now, before I suggest haggis, bagpipes or kilts which will bring the justified wrath of the Scots on my head.

    My mother’s maiden name was Robertson and her dad came from up there. So do I get a vote?

  29. This BBC London/IpsosMORI poll did not give a VI, but suggests the Ken vs Boris contest may be very a close one – compared to the last YouGov poll (conducted at about the same time), which showed a substantial lead for Boris:

    h
    ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-17434268

  30. “One night I got a knock on the door from a woman in a semi-policelike uniform demanding the books back.”

    hmmm, what other outfits does your wife possess?On second thoughts, forget I asked.

  31. I always thought that going after Livingstone’s income and tax affairs was a high risk strategy for the Tories. Even if Boris’s tax arrangements are both legal and without a trace of dodginess, there is still the matter of his column from the Telegraph for which I believe he receives around £250k a year.

    I’m not an expert, but this seems to me to be a bit on the steep side (look at what Anthony gives us for free) – I suspect that not many national columnists are paid as much for a weekly column. This is especially true for a serving politician who often place their articles for free or a nominal sum – after all they’re getting publicity in return.

    Of course Boris does also have a background as a journalist with links to the Telegraph group, but this situation might give the impression that such a large sum was partially more in the nature of a political donation.

    There is another thing in the relationship between Boris and the Press that might cause some unease. The Paper That Must Not Be Linked To reported that the new editor of the Evening Standard, Sarah Sands, took the job partly at the urging of London mayor and friend Boris Johnson, who is understood to have said she would regret not sitting in the editor’s chair.

    As it happened Sands was an obvious choice but:

    It is understood that Sands, the Evening Standard deputy editor, had said she would resign to join Greig as his deputy on the [Mail on Sunday], because [the London Evening Standard’s proprietor Evgeny] Lebedev had wanted to take his time in deciding who would take the top job.

    […]

    MediaGuardian understands Johnson and a range of London figures consulted by Lebedev mostly came out in support of Sands, leading the proprietor to speed up his own decision to ensure she stayed.

    Mayor Johnson was in the Standard’s office meeting executives and staff on 7 March… It is thought he used that opportunity to advance Sands’s case, but when asked by reporters earlier on Friday whether he wanted her to get the job, he was non-committal.

    At best it all seems worryingly chummy to me, at worst it suggests that London’s main paper is too close to the Mayor to criticise him if needed.

  32. @NickP – “My mother’s maiden name was Robertson and her dad came from up there. So do I get a vote?”

    It would be funny if the SNP decided to broaden the franchise to be on the same basis that they select their rugby players (eg once had a grandparent who received a postcard from someone who had once looked at a map of Scotland). They could end up with the largest democracy on earth.

  33. @Roger Mexico

    “…there is still the matter of his column from the Telegraph for which I believe he receives around £250k a year.”

    According to Johnson when asked about this in an interview a while back, he felt that this amount of money was “chicken feed”.

    The frightening thing is that for Johnson and his chums, it probably is.

  34. Apparently Boris kicked off the proceedings at LBC with some hallmark tomfoolery… Johnson “made to hand his coat to Livingstone, as if mistaking him for a member of staff [traditionally the gentleman’s coat is handed to a footman], to the amusement of some”.

  35. @Crossbat11
    You have an excellent knowledge of our political scene. In fact, the pro-Mélenchon tendency seems to gain in strength as we move closer to election day (22 April, runoff 6 May). The average of the 4 latest polls, published between 1 and 3 April (institutes IFOP, IPSOS, LH and BVA) is as follows:
    Hollande 27.75
    Mélenchon 14
    Joly (Greens) 2.13
    Others far left 1.37
    TOTAL LEFT 45.25 (2007: 36.5)
    Sarkozy 28.25
    LePen 14.5
    Dupont 1
    TOTAL RIGHT 43.75 (2007: 45)
    Bayrou (center) 11 (2007: 18.5)
    RUNOFF
    Hollande 54.75 (2007: 47 Royal)
    Sarkozy 45.25 (2007: 53)
    It is clear that the victory of Hollande cannot be reversed, the only candidate that had such numbers in the beginning of April was Mitterrand in 1988, and he was in fact reelected with 54%. What is interesting is that the gains of Mélenchon come not only from potential Hollande-socialist voters, but also from centrist ones, from the popular right and from potential abstenionists. Thus the left becomes stronger, and in conjunction with the fact that more than half of centrist voters and around 20 or 25% of far righters are strongly anti-Sarkozy, Hollande leads the runoff by almost 10 points, despite the statistical tie with Sarkozy in the first round. So the only uncertainties about this elections are: 1. Who will top the 1st round and 2.Who will be the “third man” (or woman).

  36. I heard an interesting view on eligibility to vote in a Scottish referendum. It was suggested that anyone who self-identified as Scottish could vote, but they would be given Scottish citizenship if the referendum passed. Those who decide they are not Scottish enough don’t vote and remain British Citizens.

  37. Alec

    It has just been confirmed that my Italian son in law will be entitled to dual nationality. The SNP has a MSP of Italian antecedents.

    At least in the North they have those from the Indian sub-continent in the bag,

    They also have a list MSP, whose grandfather campaigned for independence in India, tasked with enthusing about the merits of self determintion on any Commonwealth national day (usually the aniversary of independence from UK).

  38. Colin Green

    “I heard an interesting view on eligibility to vote in a Scottish referendum.”

    That sounds like a Unionist trying to muddy the waters or somebody who is 40 years behind the argument. Anything that involves people not on the voters’ roll is impractical.

    Nationality is different.

    If there is a Yes vote, anyone who owns property in Scotland [Trump, Al Fayed] and is here on the day is in.

  39. Hardly anybody is going to like the Government having access to all their emails and browsing histories.

    Hell, they might find out that I spend all my time here!

  40. Anybody who owns property?

    So non-property owning Scots out of country on Independence Day won’t get back in?

  41. If Scotland becomes an independent nation and is then not accepted by the EU, will it be necessary for Scots working in England/Wales/N Ireland to have a work visa ? Would this then be included within the government immigration cap.

    Might be a silly question, but they would need to look at this, when dealing with the separation.

  42. Nick P

    EU/UK citizens born here and many others (married etc.)

  43. @ Robbie

    Not one feels a poster who is comfortable with the apostrophe.
    ———————
    LOL :-)

    I think it’s the keypad which is the problem, rather than the apostrophe rules which are troubling him.

    However, I will in future, take great care to have neither apostrophe errors nor apostrophe related typing errors because I can tell it’s important to you. ;-)

  44. Amber

    Your use of the apostrophe in “it’s” (on both occasions) was perfection itself.

  45. @ Old Nat

    I’ve actually found that the apostrophe rules are (or perhaps were) generally well taught in Scotland. When my son was in Canada the school there was very complimentary about it.

    I’ve also noticed, when looking at CVs & after taking on staff, the people who were educated in Scotland – generally speaking – make fewer mistakes than others.

    Somebody’s going to tell me that the apostrophe rules are different in England, Ireland & the US & I have been judging from a Scot’s point of view. ;-)

  46. ROBBIEALIVE…….Not one feels a poster who is comfortable with the apostrophe.

    A couple of comma’s wouldn’t go amiss. :-)

  47. @Robin

    “reports of Boris ranting and swearing may well do a great deal of harm to his image as an amiable buffoon”

    I think it is just as likely to WIN him votes!

  48. If Scotland becomes independant there could be a call for tnorth east England to join them. We tend to think we have a lot more in common with the Scots than with Londoners.

    Would Scotland accept us?

  49. London will come too…and one house in Surrey.

  50. Bill Bryson, in his book, ‘ Notes from a small Island ‘ found an American guide book, ‘Rick Steves’ Europe 1996′ claiming that Scotland was, ‘ North of England ‘ ,using that assumption should we conclude that England is, ‘South of Scotland ‘. :-)

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