The full tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here, covering the budget, fuel strikes and party donations.

On the regular leadership trackers there is a sharp fall for David Cameron, down to minus 27 from minus 11 a week ago. This is his lowest approval rating as Prime Minister (and I think as during his time as leader of the opposition too, though I don’t have them all collated in one place. I think his lowest then was minus 26). Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg’s ratings are also down slightly, Miliband to minus 41 (from minus 37), Clegg to minus 53 (from minus 46).

YouGov repeated the overall budget question from last week now there has been a further week for news of the budget to sink in (and for people to row over pasties… a move the poll found 69% in disagreement with). A week ago 24% thought the budget would be good for the economy, 34% bad. That’s now fallen to 13% good, 45% bad.

Turning to the fuel strike, 25% would support a strike by fuel tanker drivers, 52% would oppose it. If it did go ahead, two thirds of people (66%) would support using the army to deliver petrol supplies. On the government’s handling of the strike threat so far, an overwhelming 86% of people think they have handled it badly (59% think they have handled it “very badly”). This includes 78% of Tory voters who think they have handled the strike threat badly.

On party funding and donations, the figures suggest people are equally negative towards both the two main parties. 68% think donors have a lot or a fair amount of influence over Conservative policies, 69% think the same about Labour; only 25% of people trust David Cameron to be honest about his relationships with Conservative donors, only 24% trust Ed Miliband to be honest about his relationships with Labour donors.

68% of people think that British politics are very (21%) or fairly (47%) corrupt, 56% think it is probably true that policies have been changed in exchange for donations, 80% think it is probably true that honours have been given in exchange for donations. On the specifics of the Cruddas case, just over half (53%) think that he was telling the truth and the Tory donors really would get preferential access and influence.

Moving forward, just over half (53%) would support a cap on individual donations to parties, with 63% and 62% supporting caps on business and union donations respectively.


371 Responses to “Full report on the YouGov/Sunday Times survey”

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  1. “Perhaps we should dig a nice coal mine, or reintroduce chimneys for you lot to climb…..! ”

    Too old for chimneys. Still, hilarious comeback. Kudos. See if you can get workhouses into your next response.

  2. Before any body gets to worked up over the current popll leads Labour had the same sort of leads this time last year but they did not poll as well at the local elections as the polls would have had you think.

    On that basis I think we will know that things have change for real if they poll at a 10% lead in the elections next month. If they do I will start to think that we have some real movement.

    Has anybody got any data on how many Councils will change hands in Labour has a 10 piont lead. It could be a blood bath as the seat up thid time were last fought after the 10p tax election, which was a very low piont for Labour

  3. @ Roger

    The ‘real-time’ stuff is so that they can pounce on you mid e-mail or tweet.

    I think it may even allow them to intercept & prevent messages going out via tweets, facebook, blackberry etc. or even to alter the message before it is received/published. There’s lots of speculation about this.

    I am speculating that the LDs could hit their previous nadir of 5%, if Clegg continues to support this proposed legislation.

    Their excuse for supporting something which they & the Tories were very loudly against in the past: Governing is hard. N.S.Sherlock.
    :twisted:

  4. @Ken

    I wish you all the best in your new buisness venture. I always have time for those who create a business and employ people (on reasonable wages) to staff it.

    And of course I am happy for my friend. It was what he wanted to do and he could quite easily afford it.

    What I am pointing out is that the financial services sector is not particularly popular at the moment, and does not seem to be spreading the wealth on anything like a nationwide basis. As a result DC us unlikely to receive a boost from growth in that very particular sector of the economy.

  5. What I find hard to accept is that Lab were in favour of this intrusive behaviour in the first place. This lot opposed it, that was there one saving grace.

    What worries me is that if Lab oppose, when (if) they get in, they change their mind.

    I would like to trust Ed…I’d like to see him oppose and keep his promise.

  6. @ Dave M

    Has anybody got any data on how many Councils will change hands in Labour has a 10 piont lead.
    ————————
    Labour are saying 300 – 350 would be good; the Tories are saying we should get 700 based on a 10% polling lead. So the news management is happening already.

    I think there’s every likelihood that turnout will be very low from which all will deduce that Labour’s poll lead is ‘soft’. And they’ll be right to do so. Labour are not nearly so far ahead in polls which are adjusted for likelihood to vote. :-(

  7. Amber

    I presume that Dave M was thinking primarily about English (even Welsh) councils. As you and I are both aware, STV in Scottish council elections means that the most likely consequence here will be that the pattern of governing coalitions will change.

    In Edinburgh, will the SNP and Labour manage to sink their differences and form a coalition?

  8. @Smukesh

    Caveat emptor

  9. @ Nick P

    What I find hard to accept is that Lab were in favour of this intrusive behaviour in the first place.
    ————————-
    It was all Tom Watson’s fault. He’d stop at nothing to get his hands on those News International e-mails. ;-)

    p.s. Just kidding, Tom!

  10. @DaveM

    In early April 2011, about four weeks before the May 2011 local elections, Labour were recording 5-6% leads in YouGov, and the Tories were averaging about 37%. There was an Angus Reid outlier giving a Labour lead of 11%, but the overall picture suggested Labour were ahead by about 6% on average.

    What’s interesting about the last four weeks this year is the rapidity of the turnaround and the consistent size of the current Labour lead. Remember, as recently as early March we were getting the odd neck and neck, even the occasional Tory lead, in the polls. Something very significant happened as a result of the Budget and the handling of the fuel tanker drivers dispute and the Tory VI and government approval ratings have dived. This suggests to me that the electorate is losing confidence in the Coalition, but not yet falling in love with Labour. The local elections will hinge upon where those who bother to vote (35%?) go with their anti-government and protest vote. I suspect Labour will benefit to a degree, but so will a multiplicity of others, meaning that the current polls will be well out again. Labour won’t get 43% of the vote in May, but I suspect the Tories may well get less than 33%. Perversely, I think the Lib Dems will do much better than 8% and, as for the Others, they’ll have a bloody field day!!

  11. RAF………..Thanks for the good wishes. I don’t expect DC to benefit immediately from growth in the financial sector, but it is a multi-faceted and diverse environment, so there is a resonance eventually. We do all tend to get tarred with the same brush though, goes with the territory I suppose. :-)

  12. RAF
    Clearly there is some misrepresentation in the name isn`t it?Like opening a MARS wrapper and finding Snickers instead.

  13. @ Old Nat

    I’m not sure about Dave M’s question but Ed M was including Scotland in his 300 – 350.

    The Edinburgh Labour Councillors are fine with the SNP since the SNP stopped supporting the LDs who wanted to privatise everything. I believe Nicola Sturgeon ‘blew a gasket’ when it was brought to her attention – but that’s just rumour &/or gossip.

    And I think Labour/ SNP or SNP/ Labour is the most likely outcome. Times are too difficult, in local government, to try to run a minority administration.
    8-)

  14. @Crossbat XI

    I think Labour’s performance will be largely judged on London. If Ken cannot unseat Boris with Labour well ahead in London (and he won’t) then Ed will face some pressure.

  15. OLDNAT………..It’s not just our s**t, there are over 200,000 Scots down here, and no end of Welsh…..! :-)

  16. @ Nick P

    Too old for chimneys. Still, hilarious comeback. Kudos. See if you can get workhouses into your next response.
    ————————
    ROFLOL :-) And coffee in the keyboard – but worth it!

  17. Ken

    Wow! You’re now into labelling the ethnicity of sh!t. It’s the economics that matter.

  18. Amber

    Whether Ed M understands the STV system is something that is less than clear, but an SNP/Lab coalition in Edinburgh seems the most sensible solution.

  19. CROSSBAT11
    RAF

    I think turnout is going to be low…As already mentioned,the coalition is losing support but Labour`s yet to make it`s case.

    Ken hasn`t made his task any easier by his tax problems and alienating the sizable Jewish community yet again…But Labour have to do well overall to eclipse this loss

  20. Is there anyone on here who could put the following simple lyric to music…………. Over 3 years, oh yes it’s over 3 years, over 3 yeee-ars, oh yes it’s over 3 years…..All royalties to the rehabilitation of an ex labour MP of your choice. :-)

  21. OLDNAT……………..Where there’s muck, there’s brass. :-)

  22. @Rob Sheffield

    Galloway’s message was this, judging from his eve of poll flyer:
    http://www.electionleaflets.org/leaflets/7069/

    “You know that, while standing for Respect, I am the real Labour man in this election. I will be a strong voice for all in Bradford. We need an industrial policy which will bring jobs back to Bradford. We need to get rid of tuition fees. We need to get our boys back from Afghanistan. We need to stop the break up of the NHS. We need a new start in Bradford.”

    You are for the most part correct if your point is that those against the coalition have (apart from in Scotland) nowhere else to turn but Labour. But the fact is that in seeking to portray himself as the “real Labour” candidate, his message clearly resonated with an unprecedented swing, on an exceptionally high by election turnout to boot. So the relevance of Galloway’s win is in demonstrating that populist messages from the left can appeal.

    That message will be lost on those who will forever hanker for yet more triangulation in the direction of ever more unpopular coalition policies, but I still harbour hopes that E Miliband has the political nous to heed it.

  23. As with all of the new management on seats won and lost, if labour say 300 and the Tories say 700 lets say 450 should be the bench mark.

    However my question was how many councils will change hands not seats

  24. NICKP………..I wouldn’t knock the workhouse concept, it’s been cloned by Chinese to produce cheap imports for us to consume, we’re all guilty now ! :-)

  25. I think Lab’s lead in London is so high that Ken is going to beat Boris.

    Don’t think Boris is beloved. He depends upons the Greater London Bromley vote…but Labour are going to stonk it alll over.

  26. NICKP…………Unfortunately for you, it doesn’t quite work out like that………..Boris to win it. :-)

  27. Ken

    Smiley emoticons don’t make it any funnier, you know.

  28. Some interesting details reported in the Telegraph about the granny tax. Quite apart from Osborne directly reneging on a commitment made in last year’s budget (that the age-related allowance would increase by more than CPI), it appears that this allowance was included in the “Rooker amendment” in the 1977 Finance Act. That means the budget proposals can only take effect if there is a specific parliamentary order – and there is no chance that this will not be forced to a debate and vote.

    So we are going to be treated to a parliamentary debate that once again brings the granny tax to the fore and which exposes Osborne’s backtrack.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9181288/Granny-tax-Government-promised-last-year-to-keep-raising-pensioners-allowances.html

  29. NICKP………….So people say. :-)

  30. @ Dave M

    However my question was how many councils will change hands not seats
    —————————–
    Nobody is forecasting that, as far as I’m aware. I gave you all there is – unless Anthony or Rob Sheffield can help you. They are pretty good with the Rawlings stuff. They might have a prediction or a way of figuring it out.
    8-)

  31. I had news today that UKIP are putting candidates in all 14 wards in Slough the Tories are only putting up 12 this would make UKIP the main opposition party.

  32. Con 1,445, Lab 1,310, LD 795, Grn 28, BNP 7, Ind 595, Oth 179, PC/SNP 596 councillors up for re-election in May 2012.

    In May 2011 the numbers were Con 5,039, Lab 1,598, LD1,836 councillors up for re-election, which suggests to me a preponderance of rural Conservative heartlands in the picture.

    Lab gained 857, Con gained 86.

    The Coalition had neutralised the one major area of controversy by calling a halt on the NHS bill – they were “listening”. The main focus was on the AV referendum… and a young couple – William and Katherine

  33. @Ken
    “Is there anyone on here who could put the following simple lyric to music…………. Over 3 years, oh yes it’s over 3 years, over 3 yeee-ars, oh yes it’s over 3 years…..”
    _____

    It only works so long as Oliver Clegg is prepared to continue to sing this heartwarming ditty to Nancy Cameron (although I suspect he will):

    “I’d do anything for you dear
    anything
    for you mean everything
    to me
    I know that
    I’d go anywhere for your smile
    anywhere
    for your smile
    everywhere I see”

    And for Amber’s benefit, there’s your link to the workhouse.

  34. PHIL………..A bit tenuous, but I am with you in spirit. :-)

  35. @ Phil

    I am chuckling like anything. :-)

  36. @ Ken

    “Is there anyone on here who could put the following simple lyric to music…………. Over 3 years, oh yes it’s over 3 years, over 3 yeee-ars, oh yes it’s over 3 years…..”
    —————————
    Try the Funeral March by Chopin; I am assured that it scans rather well. :twisted:

  37. @ Robin

    Some interesting details reported in the Telegraph about the granny tax… it appears that this allowance was included in the “Rooker amendment” in the 1977 Finance Act. That means the budget proposals can only take effect if there is a specific parliamentary order – and there is no chance that this will not be forced to a debate and vote.
    ———————-
    Rooker is Labour, isn’t he? I’ll get the popcorn. :-)

  38. @Amber

    “Rooker is Labour, isn’t he?”

    On the centrist wing, but was always a bit of a maverick. I’m not sure he’ll get a direct say (if I understand correctly the order would only need to be passed in the Commons), but I find it unlikely that no-one will call ‘object’ when the time comes.

    Budget 2012, it just keeps giving…

  39. Mets: Con 243, Lab 323, LD 185 councillors

    Unitary: Con 177, Lab 121, LD 66

    District: Con 716, Lab 175, LD 242

    Labour won’t be making massive gains in the Districts, so anything over a hundred gains in the Mets and Unitaries would be spectacular.

  40. AMBER STAR………Very Socialist, a vision of misery, the old dystopian nightmare, never far from the surface. Cheer up, only 3 more yrs., etc. etc….! :-)

  41. BILLY BOB

    It really is pointless trying to aggregate the Scottish local elections (fought under STV) with the FPTP elections in England & Wales. You might as well try to include the NI elections.

    In the South, you might well see extravagant swings because of relatively small swings in party popularity. That simply wouldn’t happen under STV where changes in the number of councillors is just as likely to be affected by the party calculations as to the appropriate number of candidates to put forward in each ward.

    For a practical example (and possible implications of this) have a look at http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/stv-what-lessons-from-baillieston.html

  42. Wikipedia give a radically different anaysis to ALDC

    Councils: Con 52, Lab 37, LD 7

    Councillors: Con 2,599, Lab 2,436, LD 1,162.

    Compare and contrast:

    h
    ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    h
    ttp://www.aldc.org.uk/elections/local-elections/

  43. BILLY BOB

    I don’t know about the situation in English/Welsh councils, but the ALDC site is way out of date on the Scottish position – In Glasgow, Labour are no longer in overall control due to defections. How that will work out will be quite fascinating.

  44. Amber

    Rooker was from the realist election winning side of the party.

  45. @DaveM

    One to watch out for is Birmingham, which has been In a Tory/LibDem coalition since 2004. It elects by thirds so it’s taken a long time for it to unwind, but it should go Labour this year.

    It’s the largest met in the UK (we used to say in western Europe), and will be holding a referendum for mayor at the same time.

    For those of you who are interested, Paul Tylsley (LD, Deputy Leader) doesn’t believe in noble Nick Clegg’s opinion about trying to do a deal with the largest party first…

  46. THESHEEP
    I seem to recall comparisons to Hitler were made.

    Birmingham should be interesting because it should be a very easy Labour win but certain areas do have strong Respect support so we’ll have to see if they do any better than last year.

    I’ll probably be throwing my vote away to the Greens this year – Labour should win my ward by a huge margin so they won’t miss my tactical anti-libdem vote and since they aren’t after leftie votes anyway I might as well vote for a leftie party.

  47. @Thesheep

    “One to watch out for is Birmingham … it should go Labour this year.”

    No should about it. Sadly for Birmingham, there’s no realistic way for the current administration to stand.

    “Paul Tylsley (LD, Deputy Leader) doesn’t believe in noble Nick Clegg’s opinion about trying to do a deal with the largest party first”

    … for specific reasons of postal voting fraud (which lead to imprisonment for some) and the parlous state the city was left in (see the Audit Commission website for details).

  48. Backhanders for council contracts first came to prominence in the 1960’s – I remember as a child in Nottingham hearing jokes about which party preferred which builder. Asians in the Labour Party do seem to have built up quite a reputation ( Tower Hamlets probably the worst )

  49. @Colin Green

    The city was not left in a parlous state. And no one was jailed for postal vote fraud. In fact one of the convictions was overturned.

    Paul may have had reasons in 2004 (other than the desire to take a big pay rise), but by 2010 he couldn’t possibly claim those.

    Of course since 2004 we’ve seen the wasting of £100,000 on consultants to point out that an underground is not feasible, ballot boxes lost by the Council, votes miscounted so that the BNP were wrongly handed a seat, the outsourcing of IT with a farcical claim of non-existent savings, a website so bad that an opensource version was set up…

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