The full tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here, covering the budget, fuel strikes and party donations.

On the regular leadership trackers there is a sharp fall for David Cameron, down to minus 27 from minus 11 a week ago. This is his lowest approval rating as Prime Minister (and I think as during his time as leader of the opposition too, though I don’t have them all collated in one place. I think his lowest then was minus 26). Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg’s ratings are also down slightly, Miliband to minus 41 (from minus 37), Clegg to minus 53 (from minus 46).

YouGov repeated the overall budget question from last week now there has been a further week for news of the budget to sink in (and for people to row over pasties… a move the poll found 69% in disagreement with). A week ago 24% thought the budget would be good for the economy, 34% bad. That’s now fallen to 13% good, 45% bad.

Turning to the fuel strike, 25% would support a strike by fuel tanker drivers, 52% would oppose it. If it did go ahead, two thirds of people (66%) would support using the army to deliver petrol supplies. On the government’s handling of the strike threat so far, an overwhelming 86% of people think they have handled it badly (59% think they have handled it “very badly”). This includes 78% of Tory voters who think they have handled the strike threat badly.

On party funding and donations, the figures suggest people are equally negative towards both the two main parties. 68% think donors have a lot or a fair amount of influence over Conservative policies, 69% think the same about Labour; only 25% of people trust David Cameron to be honest about his relationships with Conservative donors, only 24% trust Ed Miliband to be honest about his relationships with Labour donors.

68% of people think that British politics are very (21%) or fairly (47%) corrupt, 56% think it is probably true that policies have been changed in exchange for donations, 80% think it is probably true that honours have been given in exchange for donations. On the specifics of the Cruddas case, just over half (53%) think that he was telling the truth and the Tory donors really would get preferential access and influence.

Moving forward, just over half (53%) would support a cap on individual donations to parties, with 63% and 62% supporting caps on business and union donations respectively.

371 Responses to “Full report on the YouGov/Sunday Times survey”

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  1. -43 approval. – well done, Dave. You got there much faster than Tony. ;-)

  2. OLD NAT.
    Good Evening again.

    United and Celtic Champions soon, probably.

    Yes: should have had, I meant.

    The Baltic States: well technically Soviet people were not citizens were they, more just the proletariat led by vanguard democratic centralists.

    Self determination applies to all the peoples, who suffer impacts of secession from minority groups.

  3. A defeated MP? nah

    A disgruntled public sector worker an dinosaur Socialist.

  4. @ Old Nat

    Re the baltic states, I believe the constitution of Russia/ USSR provided for its dissolution so there wasn’t any requirement for a referendum.

    Scotland already has self-determination & adequate control of its resources etc. because we have the Scottish Parliament & representation in Westminster on the same basis as all other UK citizens.

  5. But does anyone think that the 8% for the allies of the Conservative Party seems very much a high ‘outlier’?

  6. I can’t say I’m surprised at these figures, bearing in mind the raft of incompetencies recently achieved by the Coalition presentation team, however, having three years in the bag to sort things out, I’m beginning to wonder whether there is some sort of Machiavellian strategy at work. Not worried yet, but I might hibernate for a couple of years and then check it out in 2014. :-)
    I think congratulations might be in order for AW, today, YouGov declared a dividend for the first time in 7 years….so something extra for Christmas this year, Anthony………..! :-)

  7. Self determination is a fine principle, but how big a community does it have to be to qualify? And is it geography or the indigenous people who decide? And what about nomadic people?

    It always strikes me as odd how vehemently people want to refuse access to so called “economic migrants”. I assume they mean they want people to stay and starve where they are. After all we all came out of Africa a long time ago and I don’t suppose we got our visas stamped by any embasy or high commission.

  8. NICKP

    I’m always unhappy with terms like “hate”. However, it is transparently obvious that only around 20% of Scots support the Tories and that their widespread distribution around Scotland means that they can’t win FPTP seats at Westminster or Holyrood. Their MSPs come from the AMS system.

    A significant number of voters are happy to switch their votes between SNP and Labour in terms of Westminster elections – in order to keep the Tories out of that level of the governance of Scotland.

    In 2010 (as previously) a vote for Labour was seen as the best way to keep the Tories out. That could well continue – though Scottish politics is going to be wholly focussed on Scottish issues prior to the next UK election, and it’s impossible to predict what the consequences are going to be for any subsequent UK election.

    Things might go on as before, or they could radically alter. Making assumptions on the basis of previous patterns or that Westminster factors are the most important, would be unwise.

  9. KEN
    `I’m beginning to wonder whether there is some sort of Machiavellian strategy at work.`

    It is as if there is a competition to beat the Brown government`s approval ratings or for Cameron to be more unpopular than Milliband…The government seems keen to release one bad news after another

  10. Frenzied calls from Tories for a reshuffle and the promotion of more non-posh, non-Southern voices into the cabinet.

    Today’s C2DE crossbreak is showing Con 27%, Lab 51%, LD 4%.

    Downing Street insisted there would be “no big change…. We’ve got the right policies and we’re going to get on with delivering them.”

  11. Lab 43 Con 33 LD 8 App -43

    The 10% Labour lead looks locked in now and it will be interesting to see what other pollsters are finding, particularly ICM.

    As I said yesterday, we need to keep our eye on the Tory VI and Government (dis)approval ratings. There’s obviously a correlation, as there appears to be with the Lib Dem VI, but it’s quite obvious, certainly from the recent ComRes poll, that the Coalition has taken its most serious hits so far in terms of their perceived competence and credibility. Whether this is temporary and reversible, or something much more corrosive, only time will tell, but I sense that the terms of engagement may have changed and that the benefit of the doubt will be much more sparingly given by an increasingly disenchanted electorate.

    Never glad confident morning again, methinks.

  12. CHRISLANE1945

    With the greatest respect! Your post was simply a fudge.

    There is an argument that no existing state (or empire for that matter) should ever be dissolved, just because, well because!

    You make a fine imperialist! :-)

  13. NICKP……….I agree with you, we should open our borders for anyone to come in, dismantle the border controls completely and allow free access for starving immigrants, I’m sure we could afford another hundred million benefit claiments. :-)

  14. Amber

    I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability, and I want you to know that we are with you to victory!

    Your conservatism makes you a worthy member of SLab!

  15. Another thing. If there is a fuel strike, the Government has “gone too early” on the anti-Union thing.

    It is difficult to see a way back now for the Government. They’ve handed Lab a “we’ll repeal the NHS privatisation”, they’re about to give them internet surveillance, they can’t reverse the tax cut for the highest paid…and any time soon we are going to get both the double dip, the working tax credit cut, the even deeper public sector cuts and the benefits cap.

    Unremitting misery. And no sign of the public sector filling any gap left by the public. In fact, as the private sector move in, so the scandals arise.

  16. OLD NAT.
    When Headmasters say to me: ‘With respect’, I get worried!

    The UK, though, is not an empire.

  17. @ Old Nat

    It’s international law, not my opinion & nothing to do with the Labour Party.

  18. SMUKESH…………….No matter what the government try to do to satisfy the need for misery inculcated in the British psyche, they still can’t stop the flow of good news where it matters, brilliant manufacturing figures for March, a real resurgence in financial services, and some lovely weather, what not to like ? :-)

  19. ConHome are flashing up a headline about Tory lead on economy shrinking fro +25% to +4%. Anyone confirm?

  20. On approval. Is there a nadir? And if the Coalition reaches it, do they rebound?

    There is a tendency when someone or something has been the subject of a media mauling for the public to think enough is enough and start feeling.sorry for them. Will this happen for the Coalition?

  21. ALEC
    `Tory lead on economy shrinking fro +25% to +4%. Anyone confirm?`

    Yes…In the COMRES poll on Sunday

  22. “…a real resurgence in financial services”

    Them derivatives sell well, don’t they?

  23. @Alec

    It was 35-28 in tonight’s YouGov.

  24. @ Alec

    ConHome are flashing up a headline about Tory lead on economy shrinking fro +25% to +4%. Anyone confirm?
    I think that is from the much discussed ComRes poll.

    1922 not happy with George having 3 jobs so Tim is putting the boot in & hgihlighting the ComRes economic trust question.

  25. @Alec

    Strike that last comment. That was “who do you.blame for the cuts”

  26. @ RAF

    On approval. Is there a nadir?
    Labour -57 when we went into recession after the crash, I believe is the worst in recent times.

    Tony Blair’s New Labour had -43 as their worst rating; it was during his 3rd term – hence my congrats to Dave for getting there so quickly.

  27. @ChrisLane1945
    “But does anyone think that the 8% for the allies of the Conservative Party seems very much a high ‘outlier’?”

    You may have a point. As only 2% approve of the Government’s record to date AND would vote for the allies of the Conservative Party, it does make you wonder how they can still muster 8%, given the apparent disillusionment from most of the rest.

  28. CHRISLANE1945

    I’m always struck by the number of people who still use the term “Headmaster”. Such a gender determined usage hasn’t been common in Scotland (though Amber will, no doubt, tell me that Edinburgh is different) since the 1950s.

  29. Those questions on the latest YouGov are instructive. Over 50% think cuts, unfair, too far, too fast and affecting them.

    A majority think they are necessary but I expect they would like fairer, shallower longer term cuts that affect them less.

  30. @ Nick P

    ‘Unremitting misery’

    …..and more to filter through from next month. Don’t forget that those semi-nationalised banks have started to sneak up their mortgage interest rates despite no movement with the Bank of England base rate.

    ‘Every little ….hurts’

  31. NICKP………..The UK is financial sector manages money for international investors, and we do it well, London is a focal point for services such as insurance and advice. My company deals only with non-UK organisations, we don’t have a single British client…….we make our profits outside the UK but pay UK taxes……we don’t sell derivatives. :-)

  32. PHIL.
    Thank you.

    Vincent and Simon are honourable men.

  33. Yep

    Absolutely NO gorgeous galloway effect whatsoever.


    Time for the Trots to shut up about the need for communism, nationalisation of the largest 200 national monopolies including the financial system and for labour to give full support to homicide bombers, terrorists and fascist dictators murdering their own population: time also to stop claiming that capitalism is in a fatal crisis and that the ‘workers’ want- if not a revolution- then a ‘real’ red blooded socialist party ! All because of the non GE decisions of several thousand people in a northern industrial seat segregated to a large extent by ethnicity and religion.

    Tories should be getting worried- apparently tomorrows DT reports that George Osborne promised the national pensioners organisation that no changes would occur this side of 2015…..

  34. I know sometimes I’m guilty of the ‘I told you so’ tendency, but I am struck reading today’s press coverage with the highly excitable state of the Tory party at present.

    Back in 2008 or so I did note their tendency to go all wobbly when things took a bad turn and I pondered how they might fare in government, and I think my observations then were accurate – the Tory party is not very disciplined and inclined to panic.

    When all is said and done, we are only seeing poll leads now that were expected by most people over a year ago, and while they have made a dog’s breakfast of things over the last week or so it certainly isn’t terminal. But lo and behold, we’re straight back to headless backbenchers panicking and telling the PM what must happen – with each of them apparently making contrary demands.

    It’s clear that the party has never really recovered from 1997 and still lacks that confidence/arrogance* [delete according to preference] that characterized them throughout the 1980’s. In so many ways they are a shadow of their former selves – psephologically, intellectually and pyschologically.

    They seem to lack the Thunderbirds edge – they’re just not built for this kind of pressure.

  35. @Ken

    I can’t see a financial services boom helping DC. Not in the current political climate.

  36. Songbird Estates…..the owners of Canary Wharf, announced last week that the number of people working there will rise from 95,000, to 105,000 this year. We have just won the HQ of the European Health Agency and JP Morgan are moving 8,000 people in………..good news ? :-)

  37. Ken

    good news for who? The disabled? The low paid? Even manufacturing?

    Are they moving in because they don’t have to pay any tax?

    What happened to rebalancing the economy? Or did that just mean sacking public sector workers and leaving the financial sector to gamble food prices out of our reach?

  38. Ken

    What are the economic costs of concentrating so many people into a relatively small area?

  39. KEN.
    Before retiring to bed, to read the end of Thorpe’s History of TIGMOO, remember that Labour wins GE’s when the voters feel optimistic about the economy, and the country’s economy is growing.


  40. RAF…………We do our best, but I think we live in a bubble, I sold my company last year and am currently serving an, ‘ earn out ‘, when I retire next year, I will set up a financial business, I am very bullish, regardless of government. My experience tells me to transcend the boundless enthusiasm of governments, of whatever stripe, to screw up. :-)

  41. @Ken

    Went to see a friend who’d just moved into a 2 bed flat in Canary Wharf. £650,000. Not representative of the country, is it?

  42. There comes a time in the lifespan of any government when such is the level of public distrust and disillusionment that they receive little if any credit for the things that go right. Major presided over a fairly strong economic recovery from 1995-97 yet his government was so discredited by Black Wednesday and sleaze that he derived no political dividend at all. Ditto, to some extent, Brown in 2009/10 when he fought off an economic slump in the face of a global financial meltdown and returned the economy to reasonably robust growth. Sadly for him and his government, there was zero political dividend because he was simply too unpopular for the electorate to believe there could be anything good about him. Like Major in 1997, he got a thorough kicking at the polls.

    Now, I’m not saying for one minute that the Coalition has arrived at this tipping point yet, but there are signs that they’re straying into that dangerous territory where their every action is being lampooned and ridiculed in the media. They need to pull out of the nosedive quite soon before the current negative mood music becomes their baleful soundtrack from here to the next election

  43. OLDNAT………..The City of London employs over 300,000, we are the overspill……….and still growing, mass attracts, it’s physics. :-)

  44. “we are the overspill”

    A few other terms come to mind.

  45. Old Nat

    As RAF and Amber have discussed that information is available (with warrant) already. Having real time access will mean that they can get hold of content as well and may also have the opportunity to access information about other individuals.

    I’m always very cynical about this sort of thing because I believe that the security services are pretty useless at their job (as those with no outside supervision tend to be) and mainly concerned with enlarging their bureaucracy and playing with the latest new toys. Why they are never denounced by those who are always calling for a ‘smaller state’ I’ll never know.

  46. RAF………Gordon Brown spent many happy hours in Canary Wharf……….didn’t see him after Lehman collapse though, Alastair took the flak for that. Your friend is obviously a happy bunny, share his/her joy. :-)

  47. @ken

    Might not be all good news! They also announced rental incum down over 10%, maybe more people have left than joined?

    Unemployment is still rising and that can only be bad polling news for the coalition.

    But I tend to think that the Tories 33% and LibDems 8% are their core supporters ans can’t go any lower….. Or can it? Da da dahhhhhhhhhh

  48. A few days quiet after Bradford and the press are back to government hunting…I think the government are just stunned and not sure how to react

  49. NICKP………….Perhaps we should dig a nice coal mine, or reintroduce chimneys for you lot to climb…..! :-)

  50. GARY GATTER…………Income down 10% as a result of disposals……selling to raise capital to reinvest in 2 more blocks, to accommodate European Health Agency etc., all good news. :-)

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