There are three new polls tonight, ComRes in the Indy, Populus in the Times and YouGov in the Sun. Populus and ComRes both show increased Labour leads, YouGov confirms the increased Labour lead they have already shown since the budget.

YouGov in the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%.

Populus in the Times has topline figures, with changes from last month’s Populus poll, of CON 34%(-3), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 11(nc), Others 16%(+3).

ComRes in the Indy has topline figures, with changes from their last phone poll as month ago, of CON 33%(-4), LAB 43%(+3), LDEM 11%(-2), Other 13%(+3). The ten point lead from ComRes is the first double digit lead Labour have enjoyed from any company since last March and ComRes’s biggest since 2005.

The other questions in the Populus and ComRes polls deal with the budget, and echo the findings we’ve already seen in the YouGov and ICM polling over the weekend that the reduction in the 50p rate of tax and the “granny tax” are deeply unpopular. One positive finding for the Conservatives in the Populus poll is that despite the cut in the 50p tax rate the poportion of people who think the Conservatives “represent ordinary people, not just the better off” has remained constant at 31%, rather than dropping. This doesn’t entirely surprise me, most people thought the Conservatives cared more about the rich anyway, the cut in the 50p is probably going to entrench existing damaging views of the Conservatives rather than create new ones. Personally I suspect it’s the “granny tax” that has done real harm.

About a third of the the Populus poll and ComRes polls were conducted after the Conservative cash-for-access story broke. ComRes remark that their voting intention figures on Sunday showed a much larger Labour lead… I wouldn’t read too much into this yet, the margin of error on a third of a poll of 1000 people is huge, and it may just be that ComRes got more Laboury people on Sunday. The YouGov poll, which unlike the two others was conducted wholly on Sunday and Monday does not show a further shift to Labour, but as ever is just one poll. Let’s wait and see what impact, if any, the access scandal has…

UPDATE: Sigh, looking at the reaction on Twitter people are already getting excited over the portion of the ComRes fieldwork that was conducted after Sunday, which had a 17 point Labour lead – including people who, frankly, should know better. That’ll be based on 350 people, with a consequentially large margin of error, and would only have been weighted as part of the larger sample, not weighted in its own right.

UPDATE2: On Thursday I said keep an eye on the 60+ crossbreak. Now, age crossbreaks are very volatile and it’s wrong to read too much into one wacky result, but now we’ve got three YouGov polls since the budget showing sharply reduced Tory leads amongst over 60s (Labour are marginally ahead today). In ComRes’s poll there is a hefty Labour lead amongst 55-64 year olds, and a single digit Tory lead amongst over 65s. In contrast ICM at the weekend still had a big Tory lead amongst the elderly, so the traffic isn’t all one way. Keep an eye on it, but it’s starting to look like the Conservatives may have taken a knock amongst those affected by the granny tax.


182 Responses to “New ComRes, Populus and YouGov polls”

1 2 3 4
  1. From tonight’s tables, only 66% of 2010 Con voters say they would vote Con tomorrow (cf 78% Lab and 25% LD). For the moment, a lot of the drop in Con VI is coming from a big swing to the DKs (17% of 2010 Cons, compared to ~10% at the start of the month).

    I think in the next few days we’ll see at least some of those current DKs start to switch away from the Tories. It’s why the polls never respond as quickly to events as we imagine they should. Switching VI is a slow process, starting with disenchantment and a switch to another party only happening later, taking perhaps a few days. The challenge right now for all parties is to pick up (or recapture) those newly floating voters.

    I’ll be very surprised if we don’t see at least one 10 point lead on YouGov in the next week or so.

  2. “Miliband comes under proper scrutiny.” – “DC is currently under attack.”

    Thatcher 17
    Blair 13
    Major 5
    Hague 4
    Brown 3
    IDS 2
    Howard 2.

    That’s years as party leader. If Cameron makes it to 2015, it would be ten years. With Boris ruling himself out, Osborne and Cameron losing their shine – the feild would appear to be opening up for ambitious new contenders.

  3. You gotta wonder why someone said `a week is a long time in politics`

  4. More or less what I expected, but most of the hysteria today over Murdoch’s phoney investors, is , in Mandy’s famous words, ‘ just tittle tattle ‘. Time is on our side………and the media is notoriously fickle, as we have witnessed over the past few days. :-)

  5. I’m 60 in May. Should I vote differently then?

  6. Not been around for a while, and WOW, what a glorious night to return!

    Good polling number for Labour, to be honest, I’m surprised they weren’t edging up here between the NHS bill and the post-veto fade anyway, but with an added budget and several scandals the look to be currently at least about 5-7 points ahead.

    NHS risk register has been leaked about an hour ago – possibly as a Government leak to try and stop the toxic cash-for-access scandal (as someone outside the Government would have surely leaked it sooner, or waited until the final register was provided, which could be more damaging – perhaps the Government figured things couldn;t get much worse?), but it’s out there, and suffice to say, it’s a biggie.

    Labour may enjoy a few more double digit leads for a week or so, before settling back down to a high single digit. They need to carve into the ex-LDs more, who may be bolstered by disillusioned Tories (though as someone pointed out, geographically the LDs are holding in the worst areas for the Cons).

    If Labour can keep up the momentum (it has yet to demonstrate this ability, but maybe this week has been the stuff to give them the confidence to be a proper opposition), then I expect an exceedigly good local election result, which should keep them going for a long while.

    Cameron has to break this fast and claw back the initiative.

  7. Paul Bristol,

    No doubt Polly Toynbee is required reading for you, but I don’t think anyone (and I mean anyone) comes to UKPR to read little snippets of her latest article, especially when it is mostly conjecture. Her views, for those that are interested, are freely elsewhere, so best keep them to yourself rather than cluttering up this one……. :-)

  8. The Labour party is well ahead in the polls, the Tories can’t do anything right, everything is predictable, a big win for Labour. I am of course talking about 1992, and the Kinnock meltdown, fast forward to 2012, and the Tories have another 3 years to sort things out, lots of time for goodies, early setbacks are forgotten in the light of improvements……….we only have to change a small percentage and we’re ahead again. :-)

  9. Yeah, I think the 17 point lead is probably an outlier. Considering that the Tories are strongest among older voters, it makes sense that Labour is doing better with budget blowback over the Granny Tax. Admittedly, I haven’t been following it too closely (or really at all) but just based upon some of the descriptions I’ve read here, it seems like something that older voters wouldn’t like or don’t like. If the strongest part of the Tories’ electoral coalition is disatisfied, it’s not surprising to see Labour go ahead.

    @ Billy Bob (from the previous thread)

    “What where Rupert’s first impressions of David Cameron?

    “Not much. He’s bright. He’s quick. He’s totally inexperienced. I do not know what substance is there or what he really believes. He’s a rich young man, educated at Eton and Oxford….Then he went into lobbying for a few years; four years ago he became an MP and now he’s an alternative prime minister because he gave one good speech at the party conference.””

    It’s kinda counterintuitive to me to see someone go from lobbying to politics. Usually it’s the reverse where politicians get tired of elected life (or alternatively get thrown out of office) who switch over to the lucrative retirement. It’s like judges who retire to go become private arbitrators and mediators and make far more money than they do as judges.

    @ Scotswaehae

    “Not been around for a while, and WOW, what a glorious night to return!”

    Howdy! :)

  10. Interesting that a number of posters think that the budget / cash for Cameron has had an effect on the polls. I would just point out that on the 20th March, the day before the budget YG was reporting Tories on 35, Labour on 43, LibD’s on 9 a Labour lead of 8 and tonight they are reporting Tories on 35, Labour on 42, Lib D’s on 9, a Labour lead of 7.

  11. @ Scotswaehae

    http://www.prop8trialtracker.com/2012/03/26/north-carolinas-amendment-1-leading-north-carolina-conservative-speaks-in-opposition/

    “If Labour can keep up the momentum (it has yet to demonstrate this ability, but maybe this week has been the stuff to give them the confidence to be a proper opposition), then I expect an exceedigly good local election result, which should keep them going for a long while.”

    Or at least help Ed Milliband keep his job safe. Labour has had a few big leads in the past few years but they never quite pull away. It may be because the Tories are a relatively new government and people want to continue to give them a chance (voters haven’t reached the annoyance and irritation stage yet or perhaps the hatred stage yet, they just haven’t been in office that long).

  12. Well howdy to you SoCal!

    I’ve been following the NC amendment closely (it’s where my BF is this year), and donated and everything – I’m hopeful we can stop it! Been a lot of good news on the equality front from America lately (both in polling and legislation) and sadly some not good news.

    I think you’re right with the honeymoon period (which I thought would end in the tuition fees debacle, then the hacking scandle, but hopefully will finish now!).

    Dingo:
    Hardly surprising – that budget had more leaks in it than the Titanic, everybody knew it was going to be bad. It was softened a little by a few good moves, and not fully cutting the top tax rate immediately etc, but those good points were offset by the bad ones, namely the granny tax. As for the latest scandal, it’s too early for polls to show the real trend behind, we’re still reading post-budget-pre-cashccess polling data for the most part.

  13. @ Scotswaehae

    “I’ve been following the NC amendment closely (it’s where my BF is this year), and donated and everything – I’m hopeful we can stop it! Been a lot of good news on the equality front from America lately (both in polling and legislation) and sadly some not good news.”

    Be careful with that though. I don’t know what the NC rules are but I know that with federal rules, you must be a citizen in order to contribute to campaigns. So just be careful that you’re in compliance with NC electoral rules.

    I’m hopeful that it can be stopped but it’s an uphill battle in the south. 6 years ago in Virginia, a similar amendment was passed with 56% of the vote (and that was a very low percentage of passage compared to other southern states). And the Republicans in the NC Legislature were very careful to put this on the ballot in May so as to ensure that the most conservative electorate will show up to vote.

    Here’s the pattern with all of these referendums. Referendums that just ban same-sex marriage pass with the highest levels of support. Referendums that ban same-sex marriage AND civil unions pass with far lower support but still pass. Then there are referendums that ban same-sex marriage, civil unions, and legal recognition of straight couples in unmarried relationships. This latter category was passed in Virginia but very narrowly (contrast that to amendments that same year that just banned same-sex marriage in Missisippi and Tennessee that passed with over 90% of the vote). It failed in Arizona in a shocking upset in 2006. I thought this might be the type of amendment on the North Carolina ballot though I’m not sure.

  14. Don’t worry, checked it out already – we’ve had enough of financial sleaze in politics this week, no? (sorry for the cheeky partisan jibe there guys, but that was too good to miss!)

    On polling: Independent now reporting on the ’17 point lead’ based on the 350/687 interviews which were conducted after cashccess. The 337 prior apparently showed only a lead of around 4 points. Much as I admit I would love it to be a 17-pointer, voodoo is in the air…

  15. As to the Cruddas scandal, it is indeed a scandal, but its VI effect is likely to be zilch. Everybody (not just the cognoscenti) knows that politicians off all parties have taken shady money ever since the first ape man climbed down from his tree, beat his chest, and said “Vote Tarzan”.

    My prescription would be:
    1. Party income limited to two, and only two sources: individual membership subscriptions limited to max £100pa, and public funding based on the party’s last 5 years national and local ballot figures.*
    2. All other income to be strictly illegal, with criminal sactions on the “donor”, and the party being punished by a disproportionate cut in public funding.
    3. Party bank and financial accounts to be audited by a commission consisting of qualified accountants nominated by all major parties, and publicly funded. The commission itself to be audited by a committee of the House of Lords.

    This should go a long way towards stopping corruption (or, just as bad, the suspicion of corruption), by big business, trades unions, and rich individuals).

    * An extra bonus, if the funding level is kept fairly low, is to limit the number of staff the parties can employ. One of the sad features of modern politics is the number of senior politicians (including both major party leaders) who have only had one serious career: politics. Smaller party machines would hopefully mean a larger proportion of MPs who actually know what life is like outside the Westminster bubble.

  16. I forgot to say in my previous post: the probability of my prescription being adopted is a tad lower than the probability of Kin Jong Un being elected as the next president of the USA.

  17. @ Scotswaehae

    “Don’t worry, checked it out already – we’ve had enough of financial sleaze in politics this week, no? (sorry for the cheeky partisan jibe there guys, but that was too good to miss!)”

    Well like I said, I don’t know the rules (I’m just looking out for you). I’m glad you looked them up and I’m glad that you have contributed (I haven’t contributed yet myself). I think I showed you that good Elon University poll that I saw. PPP has shown Measure 1 leading by a hefty margin but the lead has been declining.

    When it comes to money, I don’t think it neccessarily contributes to sleaze in politics so much as it harmfully distracts politicians from doing their jobs and forces them to devote the bulk of their time and energy to raising money.

    “On polling: Independent now reporting on the ’17 point lead’ based on the 350/687 interviews which were conducted after cashccess. The 337 prior apparently showed only a lead of around 4 points. Much as I admit I would love it to be a 17-pointer, voodoo is in the air…”

    I feel your pain on voodoo. I’m aghast over this Trayvon Martin shooting. I went to a rally and wore a hoodie for him on Saturday. But tonight I’ve been screaming at the nightly news. Why? Because they’re claiming that a witness, a good friend, “corroborates” George Zimmerman’s story.

    So I watched this guy talk on Hardball tonight and I nearly lost it. This guy is not a corroborative witness at all! Mother Marion Barry! How can the news media be so god dang ignorant. This guy could NOT testify in court. It’s Evidence 101. This fellow wasn’t at the scene of the shooting, he wasn’t there before, he wasn’t even there afterwards. He didn’t observe the alleged physical injuries on Zimmerman. In fact, he hasn’t even seen Zimmerman since a week before the shooting. He can’t corroborate ANY version of these events. And yet the media is presenting him as a corroborative witness. Makes me SO angry.

    And this is as much voodoo reporting as the reporting to Labour’s 17% lead.

  18. The Government has taken a knock.
    Labour sold gold at the bottom of the market, and ripped the country off.
    We should rub Ed’s nose in Brown’s bottom.

  19. @ Joe James B

    Did you mistake UKPR for some other site, or have you had one drink too many?
    8-)

  20. oh yes, sorry I did.

  21. @ Amber Star

    “Did you mistake UKPR for some other site, or have you had one drink too many? :)”

    I could use a drink about now. Lol.

  22. The situation is so different to the 80s and early 90s with alot of those voting for the Tories left this planet by now! They consistently got into the early 40s at each general election. It took them 13 years to reach 37%. Cannot really see them going above that.

    Though I like some of Ed Miliband and his policies the downside is his public perception and the way he presents himself. If only he could come across like Tony Blair personally and keep the policies he is promoting now.

    Unfortunately, the public are fickle when it comes to perceptions of leaders and image. I hope he can find something to improve that side of the things. As Alan Johnson said on This Week he is ‘all cattle and no hat’ with David Cameron ‘all hat and no cattle’.

  23. Ken – you are right of course that Labour enjoyed some big lead 88-90 (although we know polling methodolgy was flawed and exaggerated them they will still large) and the Conservatives went on to win in ’92.

    Something changed though in 1990, what was it again?

    When we get ‘scandals’ I am reminded more of Jan-March 1986 and Westland, a far bigger deal than this Cruddas thing. By the time of the GE it will be long forgotten and the usual issues will matter. FWIW I think Labour will be more attractive (less unattractive if you prefer) in 2015 than they were in 1987.

    As others have identified some Tory VI has moved to DK and probably UKIP when we get the figures; much of this will end up back with the Conservatives at a GE.
    Just as Labour will struggle to get the required Con switchers to get close to an OM the Cons are making it harder to get the 3-4% more they need especially in Con/Lab marginals where any remaining LD squeeze is likely to break in Labs favour. They need to take Lab seats, 10-15 LDs seats will not be enough.
    A long way off but another hung parliament looks most likely again with cons most votes but seats possible being closer than this time between the big 2 (in UK Old Nat)

  24. “Sigh, looking at the reaction on Twitter people are already getting excited over the portion of the ComRes fieldwork that was conducted after Sunday, which had a 17 point Labour lead”
    AW – Seems you need a word with the Sunday Times, who’ve just tweeted exactly the same thing..

  25. of course we will get the ‘impact has faded stories’ in a couple of weeks as well.

  26. JIM JAM

    @”As others have identified some Tory VI has moved to DK and probably UKIP when we get the figures; much of this will end up back with the Conservatives at a GE.”

    It will.

    Time for Cons to get on the front foot again. The tanker drivers might provide an opportunity………not forgetting the economy.

    see Frau Merkel has bent the knee – RIP EFTT :-)

    That will bring a smile back to DC’s face .

  27. Don’t hear much of that old left wing tirade against the evil influence of Murdoch, now that he is wreaking revenge on DC.

    :-) :-) :-) :-)

    …..but I wonder what the Dirty Digger has in store for Ed?

  28. What will be interesting to see in the coming weeks/months is the effect, if any on tory support with the new planning regulations coming out

    If it appears that this is to be an attack on the countryside more than urban areas this could have a knock on their figures, coupled with the budget and ‘granny tax’ issues

  29. @Sgt Howie

    “They consistently got into the early 40s at each general election. It took them 13 years to reach 37%. Cannot really see them going above that.”

    This is the very point that hard-headed Tory realists like Tim Montgomerie continually make, pointing to the skewed geographical and demographic composition of the Tory vote as one of the key obstacles to them breaking through their apparent 36% glass ceiling of support.

    Some posters on here sought to rubbish a very extensive piece of polling research carried out by YouGov last September on behalf of IPPR. This concluded that the pool of potential voters available to the Tories is far smaller than is the case with Labour or the Lib Dems. I accept that this is difficult reading for Tory sympathisers but isn’t what happened in May 2010, and what most of the opinion polls have suggested since, clear evidence that the IPPR/YouGov poll is indisputably right.

    If one of the most unpopular Labour Governments in living memory couldn’t help them beyond 36% of the national vote in May 2010, then the question must surely remain; what on earth can?

  30. Whilst the 17 point lead was the result of a tiny poll, its worth pointing out that the previous time tsuch a small number of people were polled, the labour lead was only 4 points.

    Whilst of course these polls have a higher margin of error than ones three times their size, it has shown the same sort of trend as the bigger polls.

    Perhaps when you make these observations you could give to margin of error to a suitable level of confidence and let us draw our own conclusions as to whether such results are ‘ouliers’?

  31. The Greenbenches blog is worth a look at. There is a copy of one leaked version of the NHS risk register and also info regarding a company called Serco.

  32. @Crossbat11

    “If one of the most unpopular Labour Governments in living memory couldn’t help them beyond 36% of the national vote in May 2010, then the question must surely remain; what on earth can?”
    ————————————
    Yep, 20 years since they won an overall majority. Is this partly due to long-term demographic change? If so then this could strongly favour Lab over the next couple of decades as the current over 60s are replaced by younger folk who are much more pro-Lab (according to the cross-tabs). On the other hand will this be partly offset by those who become more ‘conservative’ in outlook as they grow older?

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/670feucwzf/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-260312.pdf

  33. @Colin

    “Time for Cons to get on the front foot again. The tanker drivers might provide an opportunity………not forgetting the economy.”

    Ah yes, the union bogeyman rides to the Tories’ rescue! Or at least that’s the hope, but I’m not so sure. As Blair found out in 2000, if you preside over chaos, it’s usually the Government that gets it in the neck.

    Talking of 2000, do you remember how that rag tag alliance of Hauliers, Farmers and various malcontents were lauded to the hills as they wreaked havoc on fuel supplies and the economy with their ruinously effective, and probably wholly illegal, blockade? The media loved them then, mainly because they were sticking it to a Labour Government on behalf of the “freedum-lubbing” majority. Now that the tanker drivers have voted by a majority to take strike action, democratically and according to the law that governs these matters, we are invited, by the usual suspects of course, to dredge up ancient images of union inspired anarchy. Workers threatening to withdraw labour as part of the prosecution of an industrial dispute is still legal, you know, even in Coalition Land!

    I sense desperation in the air, and a good deal of humbug too!

  34. The irony to this is of course that Labour refused to do a deal on party funding in 2008 which would have meant that such dinners would not have taken place. Did they perhaps foresee all the pointing and staring we’re seeing today? If so, well done them.

  35. Meanwhile a new wave of strikes laid on by Labour’s paymasters kicks off tomorrow with the National Union of Teachers going on strike in London for the third time in 9 months, deliberately depriving children from poorer families of their education.

    Shortly thereafter the tanker drivers’ strike courtesy of UNITE (30% of Labour’s funding) will deprive us all of fuel over Easter. Things go from bad to worse – and of course it will be Cameron’s fault,

  36. @ Colin
    My comment re Hooded man & your reply seem to have disappeared!
    But as Popper said, & for obvious reasons: people who engage in academic or political discourse have a MORAL duty to be clear, literate & intellectually honest. Few if any of us can match his standards of clarity & precise exposition: but we should try?

  37. I just remain surprised that we havent seen these sort of leads before now.

    to be honest though unless Labour can maintain double digit poll leads for several months they are pretty meaningless right now

  38. @ Crossbat11. Sounds right to me. The pollsters and bookies predicted a Tory majority of about ten with them getting 330 seats in 2010 when they got 20 or so less. The Dems didnt make it near the 100 they were predicted to. Would Labour get a majority though? Unfortunately thoughEd M has the policies but doesnt come across that well in this X Factor world of ours. I hope he can change that or the public see what is really important which is policy. May be a small Lab majority in 2015.

  39. @ Sergio

    Things go from bad to worse – and of course it will be Cameron’s fault…
    ————————-
    I do hope so. ;-)

  40. I also fail to see how the tories are ever likely to climb above 36%. There is no evidence that any of their headline policies are proving popular or are likely to attract ex Labour/Lib Dem voters – unless of course they are able to drastically reduce personal taxation. Due to the current economic climate that isn’t going to happen – unless you’re rich of course.
    Their only potential recruits are UKIP and DKs – but I suspect unless they put forward some controversial policies on immigration and withdrawal from the EU it is unlikely to see a major shift towards them.
    IMO they face a tougher challenge keeping their support rather than increasing it. Once the NHS, education, cuts in service start to bite they will be gradually forced down to 30 – 32%, where they were throughout the late 90s and early 00s.
    Also, the demographics are working against them in that many of the electorate who were 20 – 30 yo in the 1980s, are now approaching 60, an age group traditionally conservative but unlikely to remain so.

  41. What betting odds on Cameron resigning as PM/Leader of the Tories by the end of 2012 ?

    One leading bookmakers are currently offering 10/3 on Cameron not leading the Tories into the next election. However Ed Milibands current odds of not leading Labour into the next election are 1/3.

    I have a feeling that Cameron could be forced to resign before the end of the year. Rory Stewart is a surprising 10/1 to take over. As he is not currently a minister, I think that is a bit of a leap. Boris is favourite at 4/1, followed by Hague at 7/1.

    I think Hague will win a leadership election and he will lead the Tories into the election.

  42. Anthony

    Looking at the ComRes poll tables:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Political_poll_indy_27thMarch12.pdf

    it says “ComRes interviewed 1010 GB adults online between 23rd and 26th March 2012”. Normally this poll is the telephone poll. Is this just a typo or have they switched methods for this one too?

    Either method might have some sort of inbuilt bias with regard to response pattern across the fieldwork period, but it would be interesting to know which.

  43. I’ve not been on this for a long while so can someone explain to me what a DK is? Sorry if this makes me sound ignorant! :)

  44. It’s a typo I think. It was reported as being a phone poll and all the other pages in the results have CATI (computer aided telephone interviewing) at the top

  45. CROSSBAT

    @”Ah yes, the union bogeyman rides to the Tories’ rescue!”

    Yep-as good as any of your bogeymen I reckon :-)

    @”Workers threatening to withdraw labour as part of the prosecution of an industrial dispute is still legal, you know, even in Coalition Land!”

    Certainly-I have no doubt that the motoring public will sympathise with Len & his downtrodden drivers.

  46. ROBBIE ALIVE
    @”My comment re Hooded man & your reply seem to have disappeared!
    But as Popper said, & for obvious reasons: people who engage in academic or political discourse have a MORAL duty to be clear, literate & intellectually honest. Few if any of us can match his standards of clarity & precise exposition: but we should try?”

    I am forbidden to respond…………which is just as well.

  47. SERGIO

    @”Labour’s paymasters”

    Not at all………..just good friends………they’ve known each other a long time :-)

  48. @Michael – sorry that was me just trying to show off. A DK = don’t know, in my phraseology. I don’t know, no pun intended, if this is the correct abbreviation.

  49. COLIN
    `Don’t hear much of that old left wing tirade against the evil influence of Murdoch, now that he is wreaking revenge on DC.`

    I agree…Go Rupert :)

1 2 3 4