There are three new polls tonight, ComRes in the Indy, Populus in the Times and YouGov in the Sun. Populus and ComRes both show increased Labour leads, YouGov confirms the increased Labour lead they have already shown since the budget.

YouGov in the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%.

Populus in the Times has topline figures, with changes from last month’s Populus poll, of CON 34%(-3), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 11(nc), Others 16%(+3).

ComRes in the Indy has topline figures, with changes from their last phone poll as month ago, of CON 33%(-4), LAB 43%(+3), LDEM 11%(-2), Other 13%(+3). The ten point lead from ComRes is the first double digit lead Labour have enjoyed from any company since last March and ComRes’s biggest since 2005.

The other questions in the Populus and ComRes polls deal with the budget, and echo the findings we’ve already seen in the YouGov and ICM polling over the weekend that the reduction in the 50p rate of tax and the “granny tax” are deeply unpopular. One positive finding for the Conservatives in the Populus poll is that despite the cut in the 50p tax rate the poportion of people who think the Conservatives “represent ordinary people, not just the better off” has remained constant at 31%, rather than dropping. This doesn’t entirely surprise me, most people thought the Conservatives cared more about the rich anyway, the cut in the 50p is probably going to entrench existing damaging views of the Conservatives rather than create new ones. Personally I suspect it’s the “granny tax” that has done real harm.

About a third of the the Populus poll and ComRes polls were conducted after the Conservative cash-for-access story broke. ComRes remark that their voting intention figures on Sunday showed a much larger Labour lead… I wouldn’t read too much into this yet, the margin of error on a third of a poll of 1000 people is huge, and it may just be that ComRes got more Laboury people on Sunday. The YouGov poll, which unlike the two others was conducted wholly on Sunday and Monday does not show a further shift to Labour, but as ever is just one poll. Let’s wait and see what impact, if any, the access scandal has…

UPDATE: Sigh, looking at the reaction on Twitter people are already getting excited over the portion of the ComRes fieldwork that was conducted after Sunday, which had a 17 point Labour lead – including people who, frankly, should know better. That’ll be based on 350 people, with a consequentially large margin of error, and would only have been weighted as part of the larger sample, not weighted in its own right.

UPDATE2: On Thursday I said keep an eye on the 60+ crossbreak. Now, age crossbreaks are very volatile and it’s wrong to read too much into one wacky result, but now we’ve got three YouGov polls since the budget showing sharply reduced Tory leads amongst over 60s (Labour are marginally ahead today). In ComRes’s poll there is a hefty Labour lead amongst 55-64 year olds, and a single digit Tory lead amongst over 65s. In contrast ICM at the weekend still had a big Tory lead amongst the elderly, so the traffic isn’t all one way. Keep an eye on it, but it’s starting to look like the Conservatives may have taken a knock amongst those affected by the granny tax.


182 Responses to “New ComRes, Populus and YouGov polls”

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  1. First

  2. Yo!!!

  3. Valerie
    You deserve it with that pretty good prediction

  4. Haha, was 1% off calling YouGov right. I underestimated Labour’s performance.

  5. @Valerie

    First AND second. Although had you added “Blair”, to your second comment, it would have been really interesting.

  6. …have I gone mad, or is Lab in the lead for 60+?

    The world has turned on its head.

  7. I feel like I’ve won a raffle! I’m easily pleased. :-)

  8. I reckon Labour’s lead is 7. Handily, the 3 polls tonight average 7 so that’s nice.

    10 point lead in ComRes is super – nice to see the double figure lead again, even if it is an outlier. :-)

  9. A rather surreal day.The inquiry being conducted by a
    Lord Gold,surely this should be Goldfinger,and so many
    Uturns that they achieved a circle.

  10. There was a double-digit Angus Reid poll in April, wasn’t there? Immediately followed by 4pt, 6pt and 5pt leads, so who knows whether this will be replicated by anything similar.

  11. @Nick P

    You’re not mad.

  12. Strange how the chaps at Sun politics aren’t rushing out the polling info hours early on Twitter any more……..wonder why ;-)

  13. Good Evening.

    The weather has changed I think.

    AMBER STAR.
    From the previous dialogue before I went out to teach in church group (!), I think we can agree that Heath learned from the awful events of 1971 and 1972.

    ‘And though we’ll not forget, our hearts are set on tomorrow and peace once again, for what’s done is done….’etc

  14. @ Nick P

    In YG, Labour lead in everything – except Rest of South Region.

    Both genders, both socio-economic groupings, all ages & all regions…. except ToryLand. :twisted:

  15. Oddly, I live in Toryland.

    I’ll see what I can do.

  16. @ Chris Lane

    You are clearly a good Christian & have a greater forgiveness capacity than I have.
    8-)

  17. Hope we have not got to wait for a Con lead before ave updated.Which for some reason always seems to be the case on here.

  18. ComRes/Independent has Con at 34% on a fairly regular basis, for instance:

    Con 34%, Lab 43%, LD 10% in January last year.

    but as Anthony points out, the ten point lead is a new high for this parliament, and the 33% another new low for Tory VI.

  19. @Amber

    The 4% lead in Populus is also significant, as it’s a large lead for Lab from a company that weights by likelihood to vote. I haven’t seen the latest Populus tables, but in Feb, Con had a 10/10 likelihood to vote advantage of 72% to 63% over Lab, which helps narrow the overall lead by at least a few points.

    The question for Lab supporters like yourself, is is this as bad as it gets for the Cons? Lab don’t seem to be able to break 42/43%, so there momentum (at least at present) is based on voters moving away from the Tories. And that is unlikely to happen beyond a certaon point.

    I’m not saying that 7% can’t be maintained, or that it will not be enough. I’m just pointing out that Labour need to be able to push on to build momentum over a longer period.

  20. Can someone with access advise how the 16% others is made up in populus please?

  21. @ RAF

    :-) I just said to my boy, “We’ve got the ‘big mo’… but a it’s a bit too soon.”

    As you say, 7 is enough but keeping it will be the challenge. Right now, it is not a vote for Labour, it is a vote against the Coalition. Hence the turn-out advantage which the Tories have.

    Labour have yet to seal the deal. For local elections in May, this will be a good time to start distributing the postal vote forms, I’d think. :-)

  22. Also, ICM Sunday Times poll now on website.
    http://www.icmresearch.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2012/03/OmBudget-Mar12-BPC.pdf

    Summary for anyone who can’t be bothered to read the stats below: Lab lead starts at 5.8% and falls to 4.5% after generally uncontroversial standard turnout adjustment. It then falls from 4.5% to 1% after the two highly controversial ICM adjustments discounting 2010 non-voters by 50% and reallocating 50% of DKs back to 2010 allegiance. The former is more significant in eroding the lead than the latter. LD polling only 10.4% before controversial ICM adjustments.

    Full details:

    Weighted figures before all adjustments below
    Con 35.1% Lab 40.9% LD 10.7% Other 13.3%
    After adjustment 1: Standard turnout adjustment
    Con 35.7% Lab 40.2% LD 10.4% Other 13.7%
    After adjustment 2: Turnout adjustment scaling back 2010 non-voters by 50%
    Con 36.7% Lab 38.8% LD 10.5% Other 13.8%
    After adjustment 3: Reallocation of 50% of DK/Refusals back to 2010 party, plus rounding to 1%
    Con 36.6% Lab 37.6% LD 12.8% Other 12.8%
    (Note: Final headline figures sum to 101% so I’ve scaled down pro-rate for the analysis above. Without scaling 37%+ 38%+ 13%+ 13% = 101%)

    Net effect
    Standard turnout adjustment
    Con +0.6% Lab -0.7% LD -0.3% Other +0.4%
    Adjustment scaling back 2010 non-voters
    Con +1.0% Lab -1.4% LD +0.1% Other +0.1%
    Adjustment for DK refusals plus rounding
    Con -0.1% Lab -1.2% LD +2.3% Other -1.0%

  23. AMBER STAR
    `I just said to my boy, “We’ve got the ‘big mo’… but a it’s a bit too soon.”`

    Agreed…In case,the Tories decide to ditch Cameron before the election :)

  24. So, as I anticipated, no immediate impact on the opinion polls from the Cruddas Affair, but three consecutive Labour leads in YouGov of 8%, 7% and 7%, point to a stable and significant advantage that has materialised primarily as a result of Osborne’s calamitous Budget.

    My sense is that sands have shifted and this has been reinforced by other pollsters tonight too. There was tentative evidence about three weeks ago, probably caused by the Health Bill furore, that the polls were moving steadily Labour’s way and the Budget fall out has accelerated the erosion in Tory support, now being consistently measured somewhere between 31 and 35% by most pollsters. The Cruddas scandal is merely added mood music, chiming with a general anti-government tune.

    Nothing seismic or irreversible yet, but intriguing possibilities are opening up for Miliband now. If he can mine the rich seam of disenchantment with the Government, now running at minus 31 in tonight’s YouGov poll, and Labour performl well in this week’s by-election, then the May Local Elections could provide another opportunity to further dent Tory and Lib Dem morale and recruit a new wave of local councillors and party foot soldiers for Labour.

    After heavy electoral defeat, the road back to power is a long, slow and arduous one. Walls have to be built, painfully, brick by brick, and building up the party locally is one of the keystones. Then policy has to be developed, but timing is everything on this. We’re still at a stage, beloved of all oppositions over time, when the onus is on opposing and exploiting Government misfortunes and own goals. These are now coming thick and fast

    Miliband has just had the sort of week when he must think that all his political Christmases have arrived at once and, in fairness to him, he’s donned his Santa hat and ridden his sleigh remarkably effectively thus far!

    Of course, the next General Election is a long, long away and nothing happening now is remotely decisive, but Labour has just had its best week for years and the polls are moving accordingly. The battered old boxer is stirring and climbing off the ropes at long last.

  25. I agree, the local elections could be a pivotal moment. A good labour performance could see the party going consistently into double digit leads. My big concern is that knowing the Lib dems will lose a lot of seats in a GE, the ex voters of the party will transfer their vote to the cons

  26. Does anyone know whether the Guardian have reported any of the recent polls. Or are their readers still under the impression that the Conservatives are ahead by 3%?

  27. JimJam – we won’t know until the tabs go up on the Populus website, they aren’t in the Times.

    Raf – ComRes also weight by likelihood to vote (they also filter out entirely people who say they are less than 4/10 likely to vote, but this doesn’t make much difference given few people rate themselves at 4,3,2,1 likely to vote, and the ICM/Populus method weights them down very heavily anyway)

  28. Lots of trends for you. The graphs relate to the last 30 YG polls (back to mid February).

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/825/trend.gif

  29. Interesting how little ie non, coverage there’s been recently at Labours growing lead!!!! Think on to the beginning of the year when Tories were marginally ahead! All the press suddenly discovered opinion polls!!!!

  30. @Phil – “… are their readers still under the impression that the Conservatives are ahead by 3%”

    Don’t know about that, but there was one reference to opinion polling on a BBC political show over the weekend – Labour had edged a 1 point lead since the budget.

  31. @Phil

    So the weighted average alone of +6(rounded), compared with +4 for Populus, +7 for YG, +8 for Survation and +10 for Comres. Discounting Comres, all the Pollsters are saying pretty much the same thing.

  32. @CROSSBAT11

    “point to a stable and significant advantage that has materialised primarily as a result of Osborne’s calamitous Budget.”

    A touch lacking in objectivity, and if I may say, omits the receding of the veto bounce. I’d split it equally between the gradual return to the pre-veto numbers, and the budget.

  33. @Phil

    Thanks a lot for the breakdown of ICM adjustments and their effects – hope it’s a series of yours!

  34. @AW

    Sorry, my last post crossed with yours. I suppose I was making two general if rather crude points:

    1 – Comparing like with like, most pollsters are saying.much the same thing about VI.

    2 – Those that weight by likelihood to vote (apart from the volatile Comres) are showing lower Labour leads.

  35. Speaking of great series – excellent work, Statgeek.

  36. David Cameron appears to have got absolutely nothing, polling-wise, from his trip to the USofA.
    8-)

  37. amber

    you don’t know that. It could have been far far worse.

  38. Looking at the YouGov poll, Labour has pulled ahead of the Conservatives on the issue of taxation and has closed the Tory lead on the economy to 4 points (30 v 26).

    Next month’s economic growth figures will be crucial – either indicating that the UK has avoided a double dip recession or officially confirming a UK recession following 2 quarters of negative growth.

  39. I think Labour supporters are getting carried away here – just like the Tories did in the run up to the 2010 election, when there was talk of landslides. Just remember that current polling is similar to the Blair landslide figures of ’97 and ’01 – and I hate to point this out to Labour voters – Ed Miliband is NOT Tony Blair.

    As I keep saying, we will see when Labour present their own set of policies, and Miliband comes under proper scrutiny. I still reckon the Tories would get a majority, because I do not believe Middle England will vote for Miliband.

  40. I doubt the UK will return to recession. NIESR predicts very low growth, and they’re rarely wrong.

  41. @ISAAC
    I am MORE than happy for you to point out that Miliband is NOT Blair :)

    @TOP HAT
    Agreed.

  42. @Statgeek;

    What I find interesting is that the Lib Dems are recovering in the South and in London, but nowhere else. The latter I should imagine is probably the Ken effect, but the fact the Lib Dems are holding strong in the South must be worrying the Conservatives. If the Libs hold in the south but fall to Labour in the north, the electoral maths is very much with Labour.

  43. @Issac

    You may well be right. Only time will tell. But DC is currently under attack from a part of the Press that he probably would have expected to be more supportive of his ideas. And indeed a part of the Press whose support he needs to get his message across on his austerity programme. It appears as if they are looking to make his life difficult rather than just reacting to events. DC needs to get an effective Press Officer/Head of Communications and fast.

  44. I think we are seeing a swing from Cons to UKIP (hidden in “others” but I doubt it will be anyone else) and a smaller swing Con to Lab. When voters are fed up with a party, they need some alternative or else many of them will stay put. During the mid-90’s, that was Blair.

    Now there are two alternatives, one somewhat more appealing that the other to Conservatives. It’s a horrible position for the Cons to be in if these swings stick. Miliband doesn’t need to be quite so careful appearing centrist as Blair, if UKIP keep draining support like this every time there’s bad news.

    It’s not quite like the 80’s position where the left was badly split: the rightist split isn’t anywhere near as bad as that, the big problem is that the Cons 36%-40% support could be nibbled at from both sides. That Tory overall majority is going to be tough to get in such circumstances.

  45. More bad front pages from the Tory press for Cameron,

    What is going on?!

  46. @KeithP
    I wonder whether, if Labour looks like being the largest party or close to an overall majority, the lions share of the UKIP defectors will return “home”?

  47. To top the Tories slide in the polls, it now appears that the ‘risk register’ has been leaked.

    Does NHS + grannytax + Cruddas + Leaked Risk register = a larger and more permanent movement away from the Tories to Labour?

  48. @Paul Bristow

    I wish I knew the answer to that. Some LD supporters speculated post-Budget that the Press (in particular the Centre-Right and Right Press) eere seeking to bring down DC in order to wreck the Coalition. That is looking more and more likely (the attempt that is – not that it will.be successful).

  49. @TOP HAT

    I imagine it’s the effect of the Con VI dropping. Con have more voters in said regions, and many Con voters will not jump to Lab. That’s my guess, at least.

  50. More trouble for the blues …………….. ;-)

    Polly Toynbee writing in The Guardian:-
    “What the chancellor did not mention in his speech, buried deep in the Red Book, was that the government plans to increase inheritance tax exemption for non-doms, raising the sum that can be transferred to non-UK domiciled spouses or civil partners. The size of this windfall inheritance tax cut has not yet been specified. You have to pinch yourself to believe it, another bonus for the mega-wealthy to make the granny tax on middling pensioners look yet worse.”

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