There are three new polls tonight, ComRes in the Indy, Populus in the Times and YouGov in the Sun. Populus and ComRes both show increased Labour leads, YouGov confirms the increased Labour lead they have already shown since the budget.

YouGov in the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%.

Populus in the Times has topline figures, with changes from last month’s Populus poll, of CON 34%(-3), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 11(nc), Others 16%(+3).

ComRes in the Indy has topline figures, with changes from their last phone poll as month ago, of CON 33%(-4), LAB 43%(+3), LDEM 11%(-2), Other 13%(+3). The ten point lead from ComRes is the first double digit lead Labour have enjoyed from any company since last March and ComRes’s biggest since 2005.

The other questions in the Populus and ComRes polls deal with the budget, and echo the findings we’ve already seen in the YouGov and ICM polling over the weekend that the reduction in the 50p rate of tax and the “granny tax” are deeply unpopular. One positive finding for the Conservatives in the Populus poll is that despite the cut in the 50p tax rate the poportion of people who think the Conservatives “represent ordinary people, not just the better off” has remained constant at 31%, rather than dropping. This doesn’t entirely surprise me, most people thought the Conservatives cared more about the rich anyway, the cut in the 50p is probably going to entrench existing damaging views of the Conservatives rather than create new ones. Personally I suspect it’s the “granny tax” that has done real harm.

About a third of the the Populus poll and ComRes polls were conducted after the Conservative cash-for-access story broke. ComRes remark that their voting intention figures on Sunday showed a much larger Labour lead… I wouldn’t read too much into this yet, the margin of error on a third of a poll of 1000 people is huge, and it may just be that ComRes got more Laboury people on Sunday. The YouGov poll, which unlike the two others was conducted wholly on Sunday and Monday does not show a further shift to Labour, but as ever is just one poll. Let’s wait and see what impact, if any, the access scandal has…

UPDATE: Sigh, looking at the reaction on Twitter people are already getting excited over the portion of the ComRes fieldwork that was conducted after Sunday, which had a 17 point Labour lead – including people who, frankly, should know better. That’ll be based on 350 people, with a consequentially large margin of error, and would only have been weighted as part of the larger sample, not weighted in its own right.

UPDATE2: On Thursday I said keep an eye on the 60+ crossbreak. Now, age crossbreaks are very volatile and it’s wrong to read too much into one wacky result, but now we’ve got three YouGov polls since the budget showing sharply reduced Tory leads amongst over 60s (Labour are marginally ahead today). In ComRes’s poll there is a hefty Labour lead amongst 55-64 year olds, and a single digit Tory lead amongst over 65s. In contrast ICM at the weekend still had a big Tory lead amongst the elderly, so the traffic isn’t all one way. Keep an eye on it, but it’s starting to look like the Conservatives may have taken a knock amongst those affected by the granny tax.


182 Responses to “New ComRes, Populus and YouGov polls”

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  1. Bazsc & Valerie
    Guilt by association?

    But it is a fair point, as far as public perceptions go (..which, you know, polling is a good measure of…) – it doesn’t really matter what the truth of the NUT’s link to the Labour party is, as long as the public perceive there to be a major link – and that could be damaging to the ‘party of the unions’.
    Which I assume is the point that Wolf was trying to make – as opposed to an attack on the freedom of association enshrined in Article 11 of the ECHR. ;)

  2. IMO,the strikes will lose support for Labour and resurrect the flagging government…It will be seen for what it is,2000 people trying to hold the country to ransom…I am sure they have their legitimate reasons but this is how millions would see this…I think they would be more than happy for the government to deal with them with an iron fist.

    And the government would be very pleased for a chance to be both conservative and popular and stick it to Labour and Milliband

  3. R HUCKLE

    @”Picked this up from The Greenbenches.
    Since Cameron became Tory leader, over £160 million has been donated to the Tories.
    Here is a list of donations up to 2011.”

    If you actually look at the detail you will see that it includes regular very large items marked ” Public” & emanating from HoC Fees Office.

    They are mostly whilst Cons were in opposition & presume they are their state funding ( Short money)

    They total £19 million of the £160 million.

    TGB does not draw attention to this-entirely unsurprisingly , & very typically :-)

  4. On a related note – I think it’s an important thing to remind ourselves of the point that it doesn’t matter what the actual truth is, but what the public’s perception of the truth is, in regards to polling implications.

    Unions are an important part of free-market economies – they’re ultimately the wage regulators of a free-market, by removing their labour workers can negotiate better pay (in the same way that by removing capital, capitalists can negotiate better contractual settlements)… but unions are not well regarded by the public, who do not perceive them in this way.

    Example – a Mori poll from 2011 found that trust (measured by tells the truth minus doesn’t tell the truth) in union officials was at -12%, slightly higher than business leaders (-26%) and slightly lower than NHS managers (-5%).. but still significantly higher than ministers (-57%) or politicians generally (-66%) and significantly lower than doctors (81%) or teachers (69%).

  5. TingedFringe

    With Wolf who knows what points he is trying to make?

    I find the demonisation of TU one of the most unpleasant things coming from the right-wing. The problem years are 30 years in the past and for the most part the unions are give a more positive contribution to society than some of their counterparts in the business community.

    I don’t share the opinions of Smukesh concerning the effect on the Labour Party as I think strikes are more accepted than they were and the Labour Party usually takes a pretty robust stance against strikes (wrongly in my view).

  6. BAZSC
    `I think strikes are more accepted than they were and the Labour Party usually takes a pretty robust stance against strikes (wrongly in my view).`

    Agree that the public are not anti-union…I think they accept one day strikes,but not sure about continuing disruption…They would want to blame someone and that someone could be the party which takes money from the unions.

  7. I think most recent large scale strikes have been polled about, so there is actual evidence about public attitudes towards them you know!

    (Sizeable majorities support the *right* to strike, but they are normally somewhat less sympathetic when people actually exercise that right!)

  8. ANTHONY WELLS
    `(Sizeable majorities support the *right* to strike, but they are normally somewhat less sympathetic when people actually exercise that right!)`

    Agreed…I would hate to take the train to work…It would cost me thrice as much atleast and twice as longer to get to work

  9. Smukesh
    ‘Agree that the public are not anti-union…I think they accept one day strikes,but not sure about continuing disruption…They would want to blame someone and that someone could be the party which takes money from the unions.’

    The Miners’ Strike in early 1972 lasted for over 6 weeks and led to widespread power cuts . The Heath Government became very unpopular and fell 20% behind in some opinion polls. Public opinion was very strongly with the miners .

  10. AMBER STAR
    ‘The public’s bank dependency is a deliberately ‘engineered’ product of the Thatcher era. I’d like to see a government with the bottle to reverse it.’

    I am sure you are right about origins. However UK Govts of all political persuasions, are totally committed to ‘non cash’ society. if one pays a Council in cash for over a certain amount or if one pays cash over a certain value your own account into the bank it gets reported to the authorities. I understand there has been talk of prosecuting individuals for paying their builder, gardener etc. in cash.

    Several of my friends who have had difficulties when dealing with banks particularly over credit cards, now pay for almost everything in cash. I expect it won’t be long before there is a knock at the door and they are arrested for tax evasion or money laundering; their argument that they are just avoiding dealing with banks won’t be accepted, and they will receive a massive fine, a long jail sentence or both.

  11. Graham
    ‘The Miners’ Strike in early 1972 lasted for over 6 weeks and led to widespread power cuts . The Heath Government became very unpopular and fell 20% behind in some opinion polls. Public opinion was very strongly with the miners.’

    Perhaps Heath was seen to be weak and the public, particularly Tories disapproved of this. Mrs T on the other hand crushed the miners and was re-elected twice more.

    I think DC will be praying for confrontation with unions. It is the only way (other than confrontation with the EU or invasion of Argentina) that DC will gain the support of the right wing press (Mail, telegraph, Times etc.) who have been continuously hammering DC and the Coalition, and contributed to the current poll deficit. They don’t like DC for being too cosy with the Liberals, or even being a bit Liberal himself, but they prefer him to the Unions, EU and Argentina.

  12. GRAHAM.
    Good Evening.
    My Irish-Welsh Grandmother, Mary Ellen McCarthy in 1972 was very ill, dying. When she woke up after a very long time being asleep her first and last words to the Priest were:

    ‘Is the country still behind the miners?’

    My Mum’s Mum survived the Means Test when the Coaltion Government’s men came to take the furniture away when my disabled Grandpa could not work on Cardiff Docks. (A BEF veteran)

    You will know what ‘Nye’ said about them, after Churchill’s Gestapo Speech and the charge that Nye was Minister for disease.

  13. Henry

    Unfortunately I think you might be right but the union seems to be taking quite conciliatory approach according to the Guardian and have asked the Government to coordinate talks.

    I haven’t seen the normal posturing you usually see before a strike – from either side and so I am pretty hopeful there will only be a limited strike.

    Unless it gets nasty (and I don’t see that happening) then I see only a limited impact on VI – especially seeing the Cash for Cameron news is still fresh

  14. @Alan

    “I suspect the “operators” of DLR trains are on less than their “driver” counterparts and strike less. There would be still be a significant saving of cost (and increased service) to replace drivers. The more militant the drivers are, the sooner the point at which it becomes cheaper to replace them all with a computerised system arrives. It’s bound to be a factor when the calculations are made.”

    Not on the Underground lines. Again, the prime duty of the ‘drivers’ is actually to look after the passengers in case of break down or emergency. They have to look after the *1316* passengers *per train* in rush hour, and be able to evacuate them through an underground tunnel if needed. Driving the train is their second concern.

    Even if DLR ‘Driverless’ trains were introduced on the underground lines, the Attendants would still need to be the same kind of professional currently in the driver role. And in reality, ‘Attendants’ do occasionally have to over-ride their ‘Driverless’ trains to take over the driving when there are issues that the automated system can’t cope with. (Snow, animals on track…)

  15. Alan,

    What do you do as a living? We can then have a little discussion how to replace your job with an automated system, tr perhaps off-shored.

    Why is there a tendency nowadays to devalue the worth and usefulness of certain workers?

    It is usually against those that are unionized and have managed to negotiate good terms and conditions for themselves – it all smacks of jealousy.

    See also tanker drivers, teachers, lorry drivers (salt of the earth in blockades in 2000 but now demonised), cabin crews, etc etc. Bankers can also be included in this but they did bring some of that on themselves, as do some unions in isolated cases.

  16. YG prediddlyiction (as Ned Flanders might say):

    Con 36
    Lab 41
    LD 9

  17. @Jayblanc

    I commented in an earlier post about the importance of people getting their facts right if they wanted to be seen as credible.

    You always seem to have the facts at your fingertips.

    Good on yer! :-)

  18. Tonight poll

    Labour 43%
    Tory 33%
    LD 9%

    Approval -35

  19. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 27th March CON 33%, LAB 43%, LD 9%; APP -35

  20. The big news seems to be the final, long resistant cracking of the Tory 35/36%

  21. Things……….can only get better ! :-) :-)

  22. Labour must try to build on the lead, deepening the commitment from voters.

    Another outlier?

  23. A vote on the proposed cut in the 50p top income tax rate took place yesterday evening. Labour didn’t vote against it.

  24. C 33% L43% LD 9%. Ha! There’s a spring in my step! :-D

  25. Ken

    @”Things……….can only get better !”

    We’re Alright!

    We’re Alright!

  26. One poll but quite a landmark!!!! Wonder if they’ll be any mention in the press?

  27. The average Tory rating in the last 3 days has been about 35% which is in line with what they polled at the GE (albeit Labour is on at least 10 points higher since then).

    I dont think it’s a huge problem – the approval rating of -35 is more of a worry IMO. (Who are the people that saw what’s happened in the last week and said ‘I approve’?!)

  28. There is a new thread.

  29. BAZSC

    Before I became long term sick (and still am unable to claim any form of treatment or benefits) I worked as a nuclear physicist.

    I’d love to hear your theories on how to automate that kind of work.

    I never claimed that those workers didn’t add value to the system, I merely stated that the union way seems to be to demand more money on their ability to cause damage to the system than to add value.

  30. Alan

    I am sorry that you are sick – and there also seems to be a view that anyone who is ill and unable to work is a scrounger and also demonized by the right. This is not the case and I hope you get better soon

    You are fortunate to be in a position where your job his not at threat by automation or outsourcing. I am a chemist and working in manufacturing there is always that threat. I am sure there are some people who would say that you are ‘poisoning the earth’ and other such nonsense

    Being in such a position you should I think be careful about denigrating (and you did whatever you say) other people’s jobs and your comments about unions appear a little snide

    There are lots of jobs/people who gain by holding others to ‘ransom’ or operating a closed shop – lawyers spring immediately to mind

  31. @Alan

    If withdrawing labour results in drastic results, it does tend to demonstrate the worth of that labour quite well. Often, it is the only practical way of demonstrating it.

    As an aside, I do recommend talking with a Disability Advisor at the CAB, to get assistance filling out the forms and knowing how to answer the ‘questioning’ right without giving ATOS a chance to declare you fit when you are not. Do it as soon as possible, because there’s significant threat that the CAB will have to cut back on this assistance because of changes to legal aid programs.

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