Tonight’s polls

The weekend after the budget often sees several polls. Tonight I am expecting at least three: the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, an ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph and a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday. I’ll update as they come in…

UPDATE: The ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has topline figures, with changes from their poll for the Guardian just before the budget, of CON 37%(-2), LAB 38% (+2), LDEM 13%(-2). It shows a slight shift towards Labour since the budget, though the one point Labour lead is smaller than some others we’ve seen of late for methodological reasons that we’ve discussed here before.

The other questions in the ICM poll showed the same patterns of popular and unpopular measures as in the YouGov/Sun poll after the budget: majorities were in favour of the increase in the personal allowance, to stamp duty and the cut in corportation tax. 63% opposed the abolition of the age-related tax allowance and 56% opposed cutting the top rate of tax to 45p.

UPDATE2: YouGov for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%. This follows on from an eight point lead in YouGov’s Wed-Thurs poll for the Sun, so adds further weight to the evidence that the budget has produced a shift towards Labour.

UPDATE3: And finally, the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday has topline figures, with changes from December of CON 31%(-4), LAB 39%(+4), LD 11%(-3), Others 19% (the high others is due to Survation prompting for UKIP in their main voting intenton question, consequently putting them at 8 points).


326 Responses to “Tonight’s polls”

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  1. perhaps the thing to watch now will be Camerons approval ratings.Always his greatest strength to date.

  2. Surely we must be due a relaunch of the Big Society?

  3. For a laugh, my predictions for tonight (probably the hardest one for a while):

    C 33 L 43 LD 9 approval -34

  4. NickP

    I rather fancy the Big Society was launched on Sunday

  5. Cameron responds to these crises pretty well – he is decisive and ruthless if he sees incoming danger

    Saying that, these sleaze stories are never something that will bring him down but the continual drip-drip of problems will eventually lead to a feeling of incompetence. This government does seem to have the anti-midas touch also attributed to Brown – look at the number of U-turns and failed launches of policies (Big Society anyone) coupled with, what I think are, strategic errors such as the budget and the NHS bill.

    I wonder if we are close to reaching the tipping point where Cameron is seen to be lacking competence.

    I also think this ‘union bashing’ will not help him. Labour’s links with the unions are well known and haven’t changed since last week. The story is all about the Tories

  6. @Roger Mexico – “News International has form of sitting on these revelations until it they can do the most damage”

    It was a three month investigation – we don’t know exactly when it commenced, but…

    Mark Adams contacted the Sunday Times immediately after a conversation with Sarah Southern at the October Conservative conference.

  7. My prediction for tonights You Gov

    Labour 44%
    Tory 32%
    LD 8%

    Cameron and the Tories will be damaged by the ‘cash for access’ scandal and the budget.

  8. Interesting allegations that tonight’s Panorama brings out tonight about News Corp’s activities towards rival pay-tv Companies.

    Perhaps News Corp is disinterested in protecting the government because the Government is now pretty much unable to protect News Corp?

  9. @Ann Miles

    Actually Cam’s approval ratings took a hit in the last YouGov Poll. Almost all age groups had him at -15 (all apart from 18-24 year olds who had him in positive territory).

    But it’s all relative. EM is still languishing at around -35, and NC at around -45

    YG prediction – Con 34 Lab 42 LD9

  10. If it is true that the government are looking to sell up to a third of RBS to Abu Dhabi, I can’t see this being popular with voters, if the sale is at an effective loss.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17514390

  11. Going with Con 36, Lab 41, LD 9.

    If there’s one thing I’ve learnt from statistics, it’s that reversion to the mean is usually a good bet! :P

  12. Tonights populus – Lab 38 Tory 34 – On the economy who do you trust more…coalition 60% down six Labour 40% up six

  13. What’s the movement on VI on populus?

  14. @Red Rag

    Are Populus one of those pollsters (like ICM) that weight for likelihood to vote?

  15. “Francis Maude made it worse” “Ed Miliband played a blinder”

    Not my words. Janet Daley in the DT.

  16. @RedRag

    Answered my own question. Yes, Popolus do weight for likelihood to vote:
    http://www.populus.co.uk/methodology/Populus-sampling-and-weighting-methodology/index.asp

  17. January Populus was:

    Con 37
    Lab 38
    LD13
    http://www.populus.co.uk/uploads/OmTimes-BPC-Jan12.pdf

  18. @ Valerie

    “Francis Maude made it worse” “Ed Miliband played a blinder”
    ————————-
    Best review I’ve seen for Maude is one writer in the Telegraph who saw it as a no-scoring draw.

    Everybody else reckons Miliband walked all over Maude & Dennis Skinner delivered the coup de grace.
    8-)

  19. I didn’t see the stuff in parliament (and I’m biased anyway) but the verdict in the papers seems to be that Maude was offered up as a sacrifice to hide Cameron, he blustered and Ed M tore him apart.

  20. I have a 19th Feb Populus:

    Con 37
    Lab 39
    LD 11

    Does anybody know the fieldwork dates for the current Populus? Before or after Cash-for-Access?
    8-)

  21. @Red Rag

    Maybe I’m missing something but the February Populus Poll on the website says:

    Con 37
    Lab 39
    LD11

    http://www.populus.co.uk/uploads/17-19%20February%202012%20Tables%20(3).pdf

  22. Finally an event that will go for the government…I hope Unite hold off their strike…Things are going downhill for the government and a strike is the last thing Labour needs.

  23. @Amber

    Be interesting to see if there is any shift in EM’s approval ratings after his response to the Budget – millionaires row and all that – and now this.

    I think “the boy dun good” but hey I’m biased.

    8-)

  24. Considering the attention that the 8 million in donations from private health companies is now getting…

    ST delayed publication until after Lansley’s bill was safely on the statute book?

  25. Only 7 mins to go. Its getting exciting. My guess

    C 34
    Lab 42

    Libs 10

  26. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 26th March CON 35%, LAB 42%, LD 9%; APP -31

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