Tonight’s polls

The weekend after the budget often sees several polls. Tonight I am expecting at least three: the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, an ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph and a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday. I’ll update as they come in…

UPDATE: The ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has topline figures, with changes from their poll for the Guardian just before the budget, of CON 37%(-2), LAB 38% (+2), LDEM 13%(-2). It shows a slight shift towards Labour since the budget, though the one point Labour lead is smaller than some others we’ve seen of late for methodological reasons that we’ve discussed here before.

The other questions in the ICM poll showed the same patterns of popular and unpopular measures as in the YouGov/Sun poll after the budget: majorities were in favour of the increase in the personal allowance, to stamp duty and the cut in corportation tax. 63% opposed the abolition of the age-related tax allowance and 56% opposed cutting the top rate of tax to 45p.

UPDATE2: YouGov for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%. This follows on from an eight point lead in YouGov’s Wed-Thurs poll for the Sun, so adds further weight to the evidence that the budget has produced a shift towards Labour.

UPDATE3: And finally, the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday has topline figures, with changes from December of CON 31%(-4), LAB 39%(+4), LD 11%(-3), Others 19% (the high others is due to Survation prompting for UKIP in their main voting intenton question, consequently putting them at 8 points).

326 Responses to “Tonight’s polls”

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  1. Double post, didn’t realise first one had gone, sorry.

  2. I should add my caveat that my observation on dinner might easily stand of any PM at any time of any party and wasn’t meant to be more….

    The mix of money and politics is as old as time and will not be resolved any time before my life’s time is run. that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try….

  3. @ Ken. The electorate didn’t vote you in the last time. It Took your friends in the Lib Dems to do that

  4. While I don’t think this one issue will have too much affect, what will is the ongoing misjudgement going on with the PM and Government. In the past 2 years we have had Coulson and everything going on with News International and their Sky bid, Liam Fox along with his misjudgement and now todays revelation. Eventually this has to start building up into something the voting public will take into account

  5. @ewan Lightfoot – “1.50 post
    What does’ non N I investors’ mean?”

    @NickP got it in one – it means News International. He published details of meetings with them in No 10 and the private quarters, but even though he was asked at the time he declined to publish details of any other meetings there.

  6. CATMAN………..Perhaps I should have said, do the decent thing, not vote Labour in again. :-)

  7. @Nick P – “… there goes Thatcherism, and indeed the whole Republican party in the US.”

    Looking at the 2012 figures for tax as a % of GDP in Denmark, Sweden and Norway – not only do they have “stong” economies, but the very favourable outcomes on all sorts of socal indicies which are associated with a narrower band of income inequality.

    Even though no doubt, some posters will come on to assure us that these countries have long since given up on the “Scandinavian social model”, I can’t help wondering how much “stonger” the US economy would be if they had adopted it. ;)

  8. *stronger*

  9. Can blues afford to hang Cruddas out to dry? Will he meekly accept all the blame? Or not??
    Midweek polls and Cameron personal ratings should be interesting.

  10. The problem is the tax cut changed the way many people perceive events. The cash for dinner thingy would not have looked the way it did if the party hadn’t suddenly identified itself so firmly as the party of the rich.

    It’s all very well for GO to blame the Lib Dems, and Tories to talk of poor presntations and leaks, but the tax redcution itself was a stupid risk, worse than hiring Coulson, worse even than the NHS reforms (which could easily have waited).

    I think GO over-rated the Coalition’s political capital, and they will pay for it as every new event unfolds as previously sympathetic observers now look on cynically and say “what do you expect? they just look after themselves.”

    I didn’t think Con could improve on their vote share next time, now I think they’ll struggle to get near it.

  11. The real problem for the Tories is if News International turn against them…There have been massive chinks in the armour for a long time with the press willing to ignore this due to political capital,and if this goes then there will be real trouble…Remember there are plenty of questions from the Hacking scandal still to be answered.

    The economy was doing quite well in 1997 when Labour won a landslide I remember

  12. Nickp
    Thanks for the explanation !

  13. nickp

    “I think GO over-rated the Coalition’s political capital, ….”

    Would that be related to Ken’s error:

    catman @ Ken

    “The electorate didn’t vote you in the last time.”

    That is not only true as Catman means it, but it is also true that many voted against Labour rather than for Conservatives.

    In Scotland,we are spoilt for choice. Thanks to PR, we still have the Greens and the Socialists electable if the electorate don’t want the SNP.

  14. When making predictions based on what has happened, we have to factor in ‘X’, that is, what hasn’t happened yet, to any party, events dear boy, events. There is plenty of time for a game changer or two, nothing is decided yet, remember the 20% Tory lead and Clegg mania, even Kinnock’s Sheffield rally. If a week is a long time in politics, 3yrs is a lifetime. :-)

  15. @NickP – “GO over-rated the Coalition’s political capital”

    Absolutely – thought he couldn’t put a foot wrong… can’t help feeling that Osborne has a tendency to be overconfident at times.

    Remember the clever “Mandelson dripped pure poison about Brown” confidences? Then came out the full story about Oleg Deripaska, the yacht, an invitation to make a very dubious 50 grand offshore donation, and a dressing down from Nat Rothschild – even the Murdochs were part of the picture.

  16. The thing about News International is that they like to back the winner so that they can claim to have won it. If things start to look bleak for Cameron they’ll switch sides.

    It’s sacrilege to say it, but the Sun is a working class paper and frankly it should support Labour anyway.

  17. Thanks Alec .

    Now am I missing something ,but didn’t Cruddas appear to speak in the past tense about events with Sam n’ Dave already having taken place …surely at the least we should be told about these non N I meetings?

  18. My point Ewen was not so much to explain what has happened, as to point out that, FROM NOW ON, a whole new swathe of voters will no longer give the Tories the benefit of the doubt. And all because GO cut 5% of the top rate of tax.

  19. In between completing a challenging and undulating seven mile run that took me deep into the heart of my beloved Worcestershire countryside, and all this on a March Sunday morning that was surely made in heaven, I caught a bit of the media discussion on the fall-out from the Cruddas inspired Cash for Cameron saga. First Andrew Marr, where Max Hastings and Tim Montgomerie were quite interesting, and then, to signal things were really desperate inside Tory High Command, the ever willing party stooge Michael Fallon, dying a thousand deaths on the midday Politics Show with Andrew Neill.

    Fallon tried to play a straight party bat, as he always does, but Montgomerie and Fallon, while both Tories to their bootstraps, had more interesting things to say. Hastings, I thought, made the rather telling point that very few donors only gave money to a political party out of the goodness of their hearts; most wanted and expected something tangible in return, be it the protection of a vested interest, sympathetic policy development or self-aggrandisement. Why else give these vast sums and, as Montgomerie added, the current crop of large Tory donors tended to be of the non-ideological sort, devoid of an overtly political agenda, unlike Ashcroft, and were generally hard-headed businessmen looking for political favours. Indeed, Montgomerie went on to observe that if you go on to the Conservative Home website, fairly brazen and unequivocal political access offers are routinely made to would-be donors, with the size of the prize secured depending on the size of the donations received.

    None of us can afford to be holier than thou, and there were numerous unsavoury examples of currying favour in return for money in the Labour years, but what makes this scandal so potentially damaging is the stature and significance of the Tory involved and the scale and penetration of the negative publicity that has ensued. Cruddas will become a star of YouTube now, with the Sunday Times sting video about to go viral in cyberspace, and if ever anyone wanted to invent a character so redolent of toxic Toryism, then it would be difficult to create one so stereotypical as Cruddas.

    “Oi John, want a new motor? Got a Premier League one ‘ere mate, on the nail for a monkey”. Alexei Sayle and Harry “loadsamoney” Enfield could revive their careers on the material being laid before us here, I think!

  20. It looks like there’s been a 1-3 point hit in Tory support, so the coming polling data over the next few weeks or so, should indicate wherther they are ”on the slide” or they stabilise. I suspect the negative political weather that the Tories have suffered is more mid-term blues than a game changer, though we’ll see in the coming months if that’s the case. What the Blues really need to turn the political weather their way is a Boris win.

    On NI well, the press have always been rather questioning of Cameron and Osborne, it’s just that Miliband’s woes have tended to eclispe Cameron’s woes. Now it’s a different story. The only consolidation for the Tories is that they are taking a hit mid-term, and playing political trickery on tax at the least worst time. It’s better to do that, and let the political aftermath slide, and set the terms of the debate then to gamble politically nearer the GE and let issues like the 50p rate become a GE issue.

    I suspect though, in the coming months the electorate will care more about fuel duty than anything else, which is why Tory MPs are right to pressure Osborne into tackling it.

  21. Of course, another thing to point out about the dire weekend opinion polls for the Tories is that they were all conducted BEFORE the Cash for Cameron story exploded.

    Monday night’s YouGov will make fascinating reading. If the Tories retain their current mid 30s rating, then they can breathe a little more easily, but if they descend into William Hague/IDS territory (already there according to Survaton) then we’re witnessing a slide of fairly significant proportions. Not a tipping point by any means, but if there’s further evidence of them starting to leak support to Labour, then the forthcoming by-election and May Locals will be very interesting indeed.

  22. CROSSBAT 11.

    Good Evening. Like you I thought today was made in heaven.

    March 25th: the old medieval start of the new Year, which is why the taxman gave a week to people to get their finances in order, hence the new tax year in April.

    Nine Months to Christmas, with a visit to Nazareth to a girl called Mary celebrated today when it is not in Lent.

    As to Politics of today’s crud, i think that Cameron will emerge fairly unscathed, the Lib Dems will support him, and the partners will turn fire on Unite’s donations to TIGMOO.

  23. News International have tended to be a weather-vane for the media vis-a-vis the government…And with Sky News they have the potential to expose the weaknesses of politicians,especially those who only depend on pre-written gags and sound-bites and avoid answering awkward questions .

    I see Milliband`s ratings have risen again to -37 after the budget…If he keeps getting open goals,difficult to see it dropping significantly.

  24. BOO BOO
    ` What the Blues really need to turn the political weather their way is a Boris win.`

    A Boris win is not a weather-vane in my view though the media may see it differently…Though the Tory party are trying desperately to hand him a defeat in London,something unthinkable a few months ago…Ofcourse,with all the various polls showing variable figures,the local elections will really show who is correct.

    Just listened to Zac Goldsmith interview…Principled,eloquent,good-looking,strong on green issues…You gotta wonder…Is this the sort of leader a modernising party really needs.

  25. @ Crossbat, totally agree with you that all partys have and have had problems with donors that shall we say are not donating out of love for the party.

    Im just a bit flabergasted though that after all the expenses drama they go and do this, i mean is the guy really that stupid?

    Only positive thing for me is what BOO BOO wrote in that a fuel duty cut here and there and the recovery gathering pace will put it to the back of peoples minds.

    But boy do i really wish they stop doing things like this.

  26. @Smukesh

    Well, as I see it the media play quite a signifcant part in influencing the political weather, and the one thing a Boris Win will do, is allow some space of less negative headlines and theoretically the anti-Miliband parts of the media will pile pressure on Miliband. That depends on of course, wherther the granny tax row signifcantly hits Boris’ over 60s core that is so curical to a win.

    I don’t think the Tories are trying to stop a Boris win. I actually think they are hoping it occurs more than ever. Not least because the man seen a DC’s main challenger will be up in London rather than chasing a westminster seat to give him trouble. Zac Goldsmith, is an eloquent guy, but I don’t think his mass-focus on green issues would be an election winner.

  27. It is a cliche to say that someone needs no introduction. The man reading the newspaper gets no caption and is not identified.

    What could better illustrate political realities in Scotland?

  28. @Ken

    I follow Baseball, it’s a fun game. It can be a long game too. With the enduring possibility that your team can come back from 8 runs down to win it in the ninth. There is always that opportunity, and it’s even where the phrase “Game’s not over till the fat lady sings” comes from.

    But there’s an important point… I say ‘opportunity’ not ‘chance’. When your team is 8 runs down, chance will not just gift you 9 runs.The team has to actively do something to earn those runs. Turning the game around requires effort, and ability to take the opportunities when they arise.

    Ken, the Conservative Party is not only 8 runs down. But they’re playing with substitutes from a different team. They’ve had people thrown out of the ball park. They keep making unforced errors, and they’re looking tired and exhausted before the game is half over.

    Sure, events may bring them some more opportunity, but the Conservative party is not in the position to benefit from them without doing something to drag themselves out of their slump.

    “Events dear boy” and “Not over till the fat lady sings” are all well and good… But an exhausted team just doesn’t win.

  29. BOO BOO
    `I don’t think the Tories are trying to stop a Boris win`

    I din`t mean they are doing it deliberately…But if Boris loses,then Cameron can forget about coming back to power…If someone as popular as Boris can`t retain a mayoral seat because of the Tory association,then this could have major repercussions for the government

    Fair point about Zac Goldsmith…Seems to me he`ll be far more at home in Labour or the Liberal Democrats

  30. I do wish we had a wider range of London Mayor polls, and better history of polling to give it some confidence. As is, it’s hard to say anything about what direction things are going.

  31. JAYBLANC………….I take your point about baseball, but I find it difficult to believe that a team can’t recover given 3 yrs to do so, in fact there are numerous examples of games being lost by a ‘winning team’ especially in the game of politics. :-)

  32. I do agree with Ken there, there’s lots of time left…assuming the Coalition holds.

    Can The Tories increase their vote share from 2010, by, what? at least 3 or 4 percentage points? Not impossible, but so far, with a friendly media by and large (until recently) they haven’t sustained the 40% they need.

  33. Ken

    Jayblank didn’t say they couldn’t recover. He said there was no sign of a turnaround.

    Three years is a long time, but it gets shorter every day and there comes a point where recovery is less, and less likely and hope is unsustainable. If that happens early enough, morale will collapse and the party will ignore your opponents and focus on blame, recrimination and factions fighting for dominance post -election.

    Long before that, if the signs are still all in one direction, there is another point beyond which you may hope for a joyous resurrection, but not expect it. When that point comes, it is Labour’s election to lose.

    They may do something foolish (or criminal) but don’t count on it.

  34. @Ken

    They may well… But what they are *currently doing* is driving them in the wrong direction. It’s not likely that something will happen along that will benefit them, there needs to be some active work done by the Conservatives to fix things. Something they have not made easy for themselves, considering they now have to show real improvement in the NHS from their reforms *and* have an economic recovery *and* get away from the taint of corruption.

    And fundamentally there’s one important point. The conservatives did not win the last election, so started off with having to improve the political situation they were in. They are now half way through their term, and have started to go backwards instead.

    It’s like watching a student with homework keep saying they’ll finish it in the morning before they go to school…

  35. Did anyone watch the F1 GP today ? An accident prone, underpowered car, won, the favourites were nowhere, mainly because they failed to deal with, ‘events’. :-)

  36. …now nearly half way through their term… I mean to write.

  37. The only events seem to be the conservative party creating problems for itself

  38. First defeat tonight for the Spanish right after its unprecedented triumph in 2001 GE. In the regional (“autonomic” as they call them) election in Andalusia, last stronghold of the Socialists, the Popular Party hoped to triumph in the wake of its victory in last GE. Andalusia was always governed by Socialists (PSOE), but in last year’s GE, the PP won by 9 points (PP 45.6, PSOE 35.6 and United Left 8.3). If repeated in tonight’s RE, this result would grant OM (58 seats out of 109) to the PP. Nevertheless, and despite all VI surveys, the final result was: PP 40.6 and 50 seats, PSOE 39.5 and 47 seats and United Left 11.4 and 12 seats). PP is still the first party, as in 2011 GE, but its lead has narrowed from 9 to 1, and the combined progressive forces have 51% and OM. This result is of great psychological importance for Spanish socialists, because the (predicted) loss of Andalusia would left them with virtually no regional president (their government in Basque Country is a minority one) in the whole of Spain.
    Electoral night also in Germany (snap State Election in Saarland). There the party of Frau Merkel (CDU) rose sightly from 34.5 to 35.1, but its liberal partners went further down on their road to Hell: an incredible 1.2% (-8 points from 2009), and out of a State Parliament for the seventh time in a row. SPD rose from 24.5 to 30.8, Greens fell from 5.9 to 5.0 (paying their support to the previous minority CDU-FDP government), the Left Party from 21.5 to 16.0 and the Pirates obtained 7.4 in their first appearance. Theoretically, a lefty government of SPD + Left Party is possible, but practically this is improbable due to local particularities (the leader of the Left Party in Saarland is Oskar Lafontaine, bête noire of the Social Democrats since he left their party), so it will very probably be a great coalition CDU-SPD. The Liberals have similar VI scores all over Germany, so in any State Election, there are now only two possible outcomes: 1. A Red-Green coalition, or 2. A grand coalition CDU-SPD (or SPD-CDU). In other words, no government without the Social Democrats. Option 1 is the more probable issue for 2 State Elections in May (Schleswig-Holstein and Nordrhein-Westfalen).

  39. JAYBLANC…………Oh well, we’ll just give up hope of a second term, your 3 year prediction based on the certainty of your assumptions, in the light of your experience, and historic evidence, leaves us no alternative but to accept the inevitability of a Labour win in 2015. I’ll just enjoy the next 3 yrs., hopefully they’ll produce an energised NHS, a growing economy, a much needed improvement to our education system, troops out of Afghanistan, successful Olympics, lower taxes, and any number of other improvements planned, but of course the narrative will be, remember polls in 2012. If the polls show no recovery in 3yrs, you could be right, and in May 2015 we’ll find out. :-)

  40. BBC now reporting that at least 2 big party donors did have private dinners at 10 Downing Street flat. Blues here who are certain Cameron won’t take a hit over this might want to hold on a moment.

  41. Couple of points I don’t think have been raised very much;

    1) Cameron will come under pressure to ask the office for standards in public life (or whatever it’s called) to investigate. They can only do this at the PMs request, which is a fundamental weakness in the system, but will Cameron do this?

    2) If what Cruddas told the journalists was ‘bluster’, could he be charged with attempted fraud?

  42. Give it a year to settle down, a year to recover, a year to campaign, should be enough, if not leave it to Labour, you can at least rely on them to be sleaze free. :-)

  43. A few weeks ago Dan Hodges wrote an article in The Telegraph in which he criticised Milliband for reducing the price for places on party dinners from 50000 pounds to 500 pounds…Is this what`s called sixth sense?

  44. A saleman being economical with the truth to make a sale? That’s not fraud, that’s common practice isn’t it.?

    I can just imagine the wave of adverts coming soon…

    “Made a donation to a political party in the last 5 years and didn’t get to affect their policy? We can help you to reclaim 100% of your donations. Mr B. Ecclestone received a cheque for £1,000,000. Simply phone Donation Lawyers For You today, to see how much you could reclaim.”

  45. SMUKESH……….Perhaps Mili had been tipped off by Murdoch & Co. :-)

  46. “… completely unacceptable… it shouldn’t have happpened… I’ll make sure there is a proper party inquiry to make sure this can’t happen again.”

    Is that a denial of any wrongdoing whatsoever?

    Police have been asked to investigate… they might be keen to show that they can be quick off the mark with this one.

    The Sunday Times may well have saved something spectacular to boost next week’s circulation figures.

  47. KEN
    `Perhaps Mili had been tipped off by Murdoch & Co`

    :)…Given the News International sting on their best friends the Tories,anything can happen

  48. dan hodges – don’t get me started

  49. @SMukesh – ” …their best friends the Tories”

    Rupert is self-confessedly a fan of the thorough-going NeoCon Michael Gove.

  50. SMUKESH………..Is it just my imagination, or are the standards of behaviour from those we endow with influence, and reward proportionately, falling below the level we are entitled to expect. I’m beginning to to have my doubts about the integrity of those deemed worthy of trust. :-)

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