While we won’t have any post-budget voting intentions yet, there is a snap online Populus poll for Which, conducted straight after the budget, results are here.

On the details of the budget, 92% supported the rise in the personal allowance, 77% the increase in stamp duty, 68% the increase in tobacco duty, 64% the change in the threshhold for the withdrawal of child benefit and 51% not changing fuel duty. In contrast, 46% of people opposed the reduction of the 50p tax rate to 45p, with only 34% in support. The freezing and gradual abolition of the age related personal tax allowance, which looks as though it may end up being the most controversial part of the budget, was not asked about.

In the past, however, we’ve seen budgets where people liked all the individual parts but still disapproved of the whole. Asked about the budget overall, 46% say it was good for the country, 20% bad for the country; 39% said it was good for them and their family, 19% think it was bad. There were more mixed findings when Populus asked if the budget made people more or less confident. People said it made them more confident about the economy overall by 33% to 25%, however they were more negative about its effect on their own personal spending. On confidence in spending on everyday essentials 31% were less confident, 18% more confident and on paying for big ticket outcomes 27% were less confident and 8% more confident.

Bear in mind, however, that initial responses to the budget sometimes don’t reflect the longer term view – these answers will in many cases be the first people had seen of the budget, or have been answered before people saw the media analysis and reporting of the budget, which may well change opinions.

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figurs of CON 36%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10% – back to the sort of five point lead we were seeing last week. Note that the fieldwork for today’s YouGov poll was overwhelmingly done before the budget, so you won’t see any budget effect yet. For any budget impact on voting intention you’ll need to wait until tomorrow or the weekend.


171 Responses to “Populus snap poll on the budget”

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  1. My mum & dad are retired civil servants and do very well out of their pensions. But he (dad) had 40 years service and that basically means his salary was half his final salary (and civil service salary for middle ranks used to be much better compared to other salaries) and it has been ravlued in line with RPI since he retired until very recently.

    He’s 82 next month so he’s been retired a while. More than 20 years in fact. Tellingly I’m the same grade as he was when he retired, I’m top of the pay band and my salary is about the same as his current pension.

    Anybody who think public service salaries have increased in real terms must be comparing different things.

  2. With such a united front of media opprobrium George has obviously achieved every physicists ambition, symmetry ! He’s discovered the God particle of Chancellor’s ambition, unified media state. :-)

  3. Luckily we Tories have still got our secret weapon, Ed M. :-)

  4. air enough, but wrong. Worth remembering that Jaohn Major began the process of equalising the tax treatment of pension share investments and that the Tories supported the move at the time. It’s impact was minor compared to increasing life expectancy and falling annuity rates, but by all means keep banging on about it if that makes you happy.

    @BT Says – it’s really very difficult to know what to say. @NickP gives a decent summary I guess, but clearly you ahve fundamentally misunderstood how inflation works.

    On the broader point of pensioner reliefs, I was wondering why pensioners should have more lenient tax treatment and whether pensioners should have their benefits hit like other group, and I think there is a point to be made with regard to their ability to respond to changing circumstances.

    You can argue that working age people (whether working or unemployed) still have the capacity to respond to changes by seeking more or better work, whereas pensioners are in the main, unable to do this. Anything that potentially makes pensioners (especially poorer ones) less well off needs to be handled very carefully, as there is often no means for pensioners to reverse any losses.

  5. “Robert Joyce of the Institute for Fiscal Studies said: “Our analysis shows that pensioners have lost considerably less from recent tax and benefit changes than any other demographic group.
    “From this Budget we calculate that pensioners will lose on average about 0.25pc of their income in 2014 or about £60 a year.”

    DT

  6. Given that the media hysteria about the budget didn’t occur until half-way through tonight’s Yougov’s fieldwork – should we expect some journalistic spin when Yougov’s VI figures are still pretty decent for the Tories?

  7. Good Evening after a very busy day for me, from a very sunny Bournemouth.

    I think the weather has changed. Do people here agree?

    He seems to have found his voice, IMO/credo.

    I am reminded of ‘Fiddler on the Roof’ where Topol says about the humble tailor who is asking for his daughter’s hand in marriage: ‘Ah he is a man at last’.

    I would have thought even TB ‘worshippers’ and men who like GO, DC and NC would accept that Ed has matured.

  8. CHRISLANE1945………….I agree that Ed has matured, like a cheese…….EdaM. :-)

  9. KEN

    Blimey-he has left it a bit late.

    I understood that the human brain reaches maturity around age 25 years.

  10. chrislane

    I have a feeling that snippet on the news (“‘hands up in the cabinet if you’re going to benefit from the tax cut!'”) with the Government looking every inch like vaguely discomforted found out embezzlers, I have a wee thought that might resonate with the voters,

    Will we know by the YG poll on Monday night if there has been a shift?

  11. @ Colin

    I understood that the human brain reaches maturity around age 25 years.
    ————————-
    New evidence apparently proves that isn’t accurate.
    8-)

  12. Odd that Colin. I don’t remember you saying how well pensioners were fairing when you were explaining on here how inflation and low savings rates were tearing into their living standards.

    But I guess then you were trying to make a different point, about a different government.

  13. I’m going to try a bit of expectation management now, bearing in mind that the consensus would see a major hit on Coalition popularity, and more pertinently, Tory support , so,

    My forecast for YouGov tonight :

    C 36
    L 43
    LD 8

    So, strengthened Labour lead….I hope not. :-)

  14. Can’t be just Yougov, surely?

  15. COLIN and KEN.
    I am 57 in May.

    53 mins for my first 10K. 34th year of state school teaching coming to a close. And never felt better, thank God, my family and an excellent therapy a couple of years ago.

    Churchill was at his best when he was 66, May 1940, after a Labour Party motion to remove the head of the old Con/Lib Coalition.

    Unlike Anthony Wedgwood Benn, who, according to Harold Wilson, immatured with age, unlike a good red wine.

  16. CHRISLANE1945…………..You’re peaking early, but don’t worry, Iggy Katona won the Daytona International in 1974, when he was 57……….! :-)

  17. Prediction

    Con 37
    Lab 40
    Lib 11

  18. It seems Ed is able to deal with the Flashman treatment. That just leaves poor ol d Clegg who has to defend the budget on the wireless. Oh how they laughed round the common room fire.
    Liked the EDaM, Ken

  19. Close by we have a runne born on St Kittts who wants to represent them in the Marathon aged 57

  20. I have just had a brain wave for Labour’s next manifesto that would have a dramatically positive impact on VI in their favour – a 99% tax rate on bankers bonuses!

    Seriously though, I doubt this budget will affect VI much after about three weeks from now, short Labour surge perhaps, but forgotten pretty soon.

    However, perhaps it was a bit clumsy politically – couldn’t GO have gone a bit slower on working people’s tax allowance increase – say to £9,000 would still have looked good – and used the extra £205 to give to grannies instead and avoided all this negative hoo-haa?

  21. KEN
    Prediction:
    Con – 38
    Lab – 41
    Lib – 9

  22. Does anyone know what proportion of tonight’s YouGov fieldwork was completed before 9am this morning? If we know that we can work out what the results would have been if it had all been conducted after folk read their morning papers!

  23. BARNEY CROCKETT…….It gets worse, Edam is the only cheese that’s madE, backwards ! :-)

  24. C-35,L-42,LD-11,UKIP-6

  25. My prediction for tonight (or possibly Monday):

    Lab 44
    Con 33
    LD 7
    UKIP 10

  26. My prediction.

    Lab 40%
    Tories 39%
    LD 9%

    I do think the Tories will be harmed by the budget, but not yet. This mornings newspaper headlines must have worried some pensioners. Also the news that 5 million people will be paying the 40% income tax rate by 2014, will have been picked up by some ABC1’s.

  27. More cheese, Ken?

  28. Cameronbare?

  29. Cornwall is up in arms about the budget and is threatening to hold a referendum on becoming an independent state.

    http://www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/fpfalmouth/9607301.Budget_s__pasty_tax__slammed/

    That is what happens when you increase VAT on hot pasties to 20%.

    I doubt that Greggs the bakers are happy either. They had supported the governments work experience programme to help the young unemployed and they get a tax increase that may affect their trade.

  30. HOODED MAN/ NICKP ….Who’s the Stinking Bishop ? :-)

  31. I’ll go for the confusing outlier.

    Lab 39%
    Con38%
    Lib 13%

  32. Nick P.

    Very much an outlier I think, that figure. Surely you would agree on reflection that it should be lower?

    Fides Intrepida to you.

  33. If Labour supply their biggest cheese, EdaM, the Tories will provide the Pickles, let’s party. :-)

  34. Chris…no I think lD will be 7% but by the time they are done will be hoping to round UP to a whole 1%.

  35. NICKP…………We could engage Eric Joyce for the nuts ! :-)

  36. NICK P.

    I agree with Nick.

  37. The two Erics (Pickles and Joyce), ah…that would be a drunken barney and a half.

    Who would win in a scrap between the Government front bench and its shadow?

  38. A few years or so ago, on here, we had a projected YouGov compiler………..the days of Éoin, Sue, Amber, Roland, in their pomp, I can’t remember who it was, but we had a running total of guesses, and a final projection. :-)

  39. A cheese for chrislane…

    StillTone?

  40. NICKP………..The Tories would want pistols at dawn, Labour would want pi**ed ’til dawn. :-)

  41. Rallings and Thrasher do a fortnightly analysis of council by-elections for the LGA. The latest results are below: I have to say no real sign of the avowed Liberal local upsurge in there…

    The commentary is here

    http://www.local.gov.uk/web/guest/first/-/journal_content/56/10161/3522789/NEWS-TEMPLATE

    Braintree, Braintree East
    Lab gain from Con
    Con: 388 = 33% (-9%)
    Lab: 544 = 47% (5%)
    Ind: 32 = 3% (3%)
    Green: 76 = 6% (-10%)
    UKIP: 131 = 11% (11%)
    7% swing from Con to Lab since 2011
    23% turnout

    Braintree, Great Notley & Braintree West
    Con hold
    Con: 532 = 54% (-14%)
    Lab: 232 = 24% (4%)
    Green: 61 = 6% (-7%)
    UKIP: 155 = 16% (16%)
    9% swing from Con to Lab since 2011
    19% turnout

    Braintree, Braintree South
    Lab gain from Con
    Con: 476 = 40% (4%)
    Lab: 596 = 50% (17%)
    Green: 116 = 10% (-3%)
    Ind: 0 = 0% (-18%)
    7% swing from Con to Lab since 2011
    22% turnout

    Broxtowe, Toton & Chilwell Meadow
    Con hold
    Con: 831 = 48% (-1%)
    Lab: 385 = 22% (-7%)
    Lib Dem: 300 = 17% (5%)
    UKIP: 228 = 13% (3%)
    3% swing from Lab to Con since 2011
    28% turnout

    Fareham, Porchester East
    Lib Dem hold
    Con: 77 = 3% (-28%)
    Lab: 90 = 4% (-8%)
    Lib Dem: 1216 = 48% (-10%)
    Ind: 323 = 13% (13%)
    Green: 840 = 33% (33%)
    Swing n/a
    29% turnout

    Nottinghamshire. Chilwell & Toton
    Con hold
    Con: 1958 = 49% (6%)
    Lab: 0 = 0% (-18%)
    Lib Dem: 1375 = 34% (21%)
    Green: 0 = 0% (-8%)
    UKIP: 682 = 17% (7%)
    BNP: 0 = 0% (-7%)
    Swing n/a
    26% turnout

    Scarborough, Hertford
    Con gain from Green
    Con: 663 = 61% (23%)
    Lab: 208 = 19% (7%)
    Lib Dem: 99 = 9% (9%)
    UKIP: 126 = 12% (12%)
    Green: 0 = 0% (-50%)
    Swing n/a
    27% turnout

    Slough, Baylis & Stoke
    Lab hold
    Lab: 1,300 = 58% (-22%)
    Ind: 764 = 35% (35%)
    Ind: 68 = 4% (3%)
    UKIP: 61 = 3% (4%)
    Con: 0 = 0% (-12%)
    Swing n/a
    28% turnout

    Stafford, Rowley
    Lab gain from Con
    Con: 540 = 42% (-2%)
    Lab: 620 = 48% (10%)
    Green: 67 = 5% (-6%)
    UKIP: 61 = 5% (5%)
    Lib Dem: 0 = 0% (-7%)
    6% swing from Con to Lab since 2011
    36% turnout

    Swale, Kemsley
    Con hold
    Con: 384 = 34% (-17%)
    Lab: 312 = 27% (-1%)
    Lib Dem: 166 = 14% (7%)
    UKIP: 279 = 25% (11%)
    8% swing from Con to Lab since 2011
    23% turnout

    Elsewhere: Osborne seems to have achieved the unachievable and bested Brown (and is 20p) to the worst cock-up budget of recent times !

  42. @ Ken

    ‘Twas me & AJ, we ran it each week in the run up to the 2010 GE.
    8-)

  43. AMBER STAR………..Aaaahh….it was good fun, I don’t think the momentum is there now, nothing to aim for I suppose, perhaps in 3 yrs time eh ? :-)

  44. Evening ladies, gents and others

    YG prediction:

    Lab 39 Con 37 LD 13

    Cons will go into siege mode and close ranks. LDs will for once be rewarded for the raising of the personal allowance theshold. Lab will lose out because of the last two sentences.

  45. I can’t see why things would have changed much from the recent position.

    So 36:42:10……

  46. Con 37
    Lab 41
    LD 8

    I don’t think the budget bounce/trough will become apparent until we have had another few days of evisceration of GO’s extraterrestrial economics. But after that, I’m thinking Con 35, Lab 44, LD whatever

  47. ROB SHEFFIELD.

    Thank you very much for this analysis, brilliant and also some cheer here.

    NICK P.
    StillTone is very nice, with a pinch, now, of Edam and some wine, red of course.

  48. Oh yes, red wine.

    Blue Nun not on your nelly, and yellow is the colour of something else entirely.

  49. Tonights expert predictions, so far…..

    KEN………………..C 36 L 43 LD 8
    JOE…………………C 37 L 40 LD 11
    TINGEDF…………C 38 L 41 LD 9
    SMUKESH……….C35 L 42 LD11 UKIP 6
    NICKP………………C 33 L 44 LD 7 UKIP 10
    RHUCKLE……….C 39 L 40 LD 9
    STATGEEK……….C 38 L 39 LD 13
    RAF…………………. C 37 L 39 LD 13

    Nearest is AW’s apprentice, the rest….you’re fired !!

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