While we won’t have any post-budget voting intentions yet, there is a snap online Populus poll for Which, conducted straight after the budget, results are here.

On the details of the budget, 92% supported the rise in the personal allowance, 77% the increase in stamp duty, 68% the increase in tobacco duty, 64% the change in the threshhold for the withdrawal of child benefit and 51% not changing fuel duty. In contrast, 46% of people opposed the reduction of the 50p tax rate to 45p, with only 34% in support. The freezing and gradual abolition of the age related personal tax allowance, which looks as though it may end up being the most controversial part of the budget, was not asked about.

In the past, however, we’ve seen budgets where people liked all the individual parts but still disapproved of the whole. Asked about the budget overall, 46% say it was good for the country, 20% bad for the country; 39% said it was good for them and their family, 19% think it was bad. There were more mixed findings when Populus asked if the budget made people more or less confident. People said it made them more confident about the economy overall by 33% to 25%, however they were more negative about its effect on their own personal spending. On confidence in spending on everyday essentials 31% were less confident, 18% more confident and on paying for big ticket outcomes 27% were less confident and 8% more confident.

Bear in mind, however, that initial responses to the budget sometimes don’t reflect the longer term view – these answers will in many cases be the first people had seen of the budget, or have been answered before people saw the media analysis and reporting of the budget, which may well change opinions.

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figurs of CON 36%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10% – back to the sort of five point lead we were seeing last week. Note that the fieldwork for today’s YouGov poll was overwhelmingly done before the budget, so you won’t see any budget effect yet. For any budget impact on voting intention you’ll need to wait until tomorrow or the weekend.


171 Responses to “Populus snap poll on the budget”

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  1. Blimey there are more………..

    HOODED MAN…………..C 36 L 42 LD 10
    TARK………………………….C 37 L 41 LD 8

    :-)

  2. AMBER STAR……………As you can see, I’m no presentation guru, I leave that to my placements, they’re all very clever. :-)

  3. Why do I get the feeling Amber’s going to come along with an e-Bay style last minute bid and grab the loot? :)

  4. If the above Populus responses are anything to go off:

    Lab 40
    Con 37
    Lib 9

    Polldrums, essentially.
    I’ll see ninety five in polldrum…

  5. 11 in the race, who’s the daddy / mummy ? :-)

  6. mammy*

  7. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 22nd March CON 34%, LAB 42%, LD 9%; APP -31

    oooh

  8. CON 34%, LAB 42%, LD 9%; APP -31

  9. Tories on 34%

    Lowest for ages. Looks like I was right. Osborne has made a real mess of the Budget.

  10. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/yp5s1ymci9/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-220312.pdf

    Labour 8 point lead over Tories. When were the Tories last on 34% or less with YG ?

  11. Before retiring to bed, I have a question.

    Why are they still so high?

    Please can someone with more knowledge than I possess help me with this.

    Thank you very much.

  12. SMUKESH………….Edges it, well done, report to AW first thing Monday. :-)

  13. If it turns out to be remotely “sticky” that tax cut for rich has done them. This ain’t USA.

  14. Thanks Ken…With my Labour bias,I won`t be doing very well as a pollster…So we`ll leave that to the experts

  15. Obvious outlier, back to normal next week. :-)

  16. Is that disapproval rating high too?

  17. CON 34%, LAB 42%, LD 9%; APP -31

    Oh dear- Georgie and the rest of the quad seem to have created a very fine mess !

  18. New thread.

  19. @Ken

    It’s still within MOE, if we consider the average recent Lab leads to have been around 5%. Nothing significant.

    Suprised there has not yet been a movement for the LDs

  20. By God, the pensioners are revolting!

    Or at least slinking off to UKiP…….

  21. Still could be margin of error, though. To quote Asquith, “wait and see”.

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