Two new polls tonight, showing contrasting pictures. I already mentioned Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor in passing earlier on, but for the record their topline figures are CON 36%(+1), LAB 37%(-4), LDEM 11%(-1), Others 16%(+4). Like ICM’s poll earlier in the week they have Labour’s lead dropping, though unlike ICM (which had a boost for the Tories at the expense of others), MORI have the smaller parties increasing at the expense of Labour.

Meanwhile YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 43%, LD 9%. An eight point lead for Labour is the highest YouGov have shown since the start of December, before David Cameron’s veto, so there is certainly no sign of a narrowing of the Labour lead there. If anything it’s the opposite, though I will add my normal caveat about not getting too excited about individual polls. Sure, it might be the start of bigger Labour leads, or we might be back to smaller Labour leads tomorrow. Watch the underlying trends, rather than getting excited about individual polls.

Nevertheless, it’s interesting that we’ve seen ICM and MORI both showing Labour falling relative to the Conservatives (albeit, the actual shifts in the two polls were different) while the YouGov daily polls are still showing solid Labour leads. While pollsters may have different house effects, they are all polling the same population at the end of the day so normally show the same trends.

It is possible for them to diverge (for example, YouGov don’t weight by likelihood to vote, so wouldn’t pick up a trend that was solely turnout based) it would be unusual though. I’d still expect them to settle down into a clear trend over the next few weeks.

Tomorrow is budget day – for those who missed it earlier on, my pre-budget summary of YouGov’s recent budget polling is here.


175 Responses to “New MORI and YouGov polls”

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  1. 50 p effect

  2. YouGov obviously the bees knees. God knows what all the others think they are doing.

  3. 8 points? There’s going to be so much gloating.

  4. Strange that pollsters except Yougov showing a shift to a closing gap between Lab and Con, with Yougov seeming to show a widening gap.

    I suppose that the monthly pollsters could be showing MOE fluctuation and Yougov is just showing some sort of temporary Labour bounce, which will soon erode away – but it’s just odd that they’re at odds.

    I guess it’s another game of ‘wait and see’.

  5. It may be a false recollection but You Gov seem to detect a movement a little later than some other pollsters. Maybe a panel may be question order, may be I am wrong.

    My guess is that Lab lead has come off a touch as they have not been able to get in the news much. All about LD/Con and Obama/Cammo.
    These things don’t conciously affect VI but it only takes a few less engaged respondents to be affected without realising it.
    Of course any You Gov movement next week will be ascribed to the budget effect and/or fading budget effect.

  6. JimJam – can’t be question order, every pollster (except possibly Angus Reid) ask their voting intention question first.

  7. Anthony – but it does seem to happen that You Gov’s dailys pick up movements a day or 2 later, any possibly explanation or am I wrong?

  8. Labour are only 2 points ahead in London. Do you think that’s an outlier or do you think it could be reflective of the way Ken -v- Boris is going?

  9. JimJam – I’ve never noticed it (people have often claimed the opposite, which I’ve also never seen any sign of!).

    They are measuring the same population, so they should react at the same time. It is feasible that online people could pick up news events more quickly and therefore online polls could pick up events more quickly…. but like I said, I’ve never seen any sign of it.

    I can’t even think of a plausible mechanism for how people polled online could react more slowly.

  10. There’s an interesting gender imbalance in the last few YG polls. Averaging the last four polls gives a Lab lead of 4 amongst men and 8 amongst women. MORI don’t seem to give this crossbreak.

    Could be that the health and tax issues are going down particularly badly with women?

  11. Sanelynch – almost certainly an outlier. Labour had a 2 point Lab lead in London at the election. Regional crossbreaks in GB polls have small sample sizes and are often very volatile and produce freaky results.

    The Westminster VI in the proper London poll had a Lab lead of 12 points.

  12. An alarming divergance for those commissioning polls, even AMBER STAR will be keeping her money in her Prada Sporran when she sees these results, today she indicated that she would commission a YouGov, but would she simply be commissioning the poll that suited her ? I’m considering ICM or Mori to hold mine.
    Incidentally, it’s good to see an honest man leading the race in London, I’m definitely in the Boris camp, I don’t like Ken’s duplicity on his tax arrangements, and everything else come to think of it. :-)

  13. @Jim Jam

    The first five polls to show a Labour lead (Oct 2010) were BPIX, Populus, Angus Reid and ComRes, followed by ICM and IpsosMori in November YouGov recorded a Labour lead three times during Nov 2010, and they were the only polling company still showing Tory leads into December..

  14. Tsk tsk YouGov and their new methodology……

  15. ICM was a phone/ mobile phone poll. Maybe we have some ‘shy’ Labour supporters who don’t own up on the phone or, having said “Labour” are reluctant to say they’ll definitely vote.
    8-)

  16. @ Ken

    Who knows? We may begin to see those double digit Labour leads which our ‘enemies’, bizarrely, often tell us we should have. ;-)

  17. I think the turnout based explanation you mention is interesting: if the public are swinging away from the coalition in sympathy (non-turnout-weighted Yougov leads) but simultaneously Labour voters recording less willingness to turnout in greater numbers (ICM/Ipsos drops), you could have two seemingly contradictory patterns running parallel.

  18. @Amberstar
    “Who knows? We may begin to see those double digit Labour leads which our ‘enemies’, bizarrely, often tell us we should have.”

    Just two more points and may even happen tomorrow after the Budget announcement.

  19. AMBER STAR…..We have a veritable Smorgasbord of polls, something for everyone, perhaps this is the future ? PC polling, no discrimination. :-)

  20. @Craig

    Interesting observation. It certainly seems to be thr case that Labour struggles in those polls that weight for likelihood to vote. And to my completely unscientifically untrained eye, I think that this kind of weighting should produce a more accurate result, as (allowing for differential turnout) the party that can enthuse more of their votets to get to the polling station is the one most likely to win.

    Let me put it another way, even though the YG is at the upper end of rrcent YG MOE, let’s take it at face value – Lab are 8 pts ahead on 43%. But how valuable is that 43% if only 70% of that 43% actually.turnout, as oppsed to 85% of thr Tories 36%. I’m making these turnout figured up, but you get the point.

  21. @ RAF

    The Tories certainly have the better record on getting voters to turn out. It’s certainly be something which Labour should begin to focus on now even though it could be 3 years until the GE.

  22. Polldrums!

  23. Exciting to have an 8 point Labour lead all of a sudden, and I think it could get wider following the Budget and Health Bill passage.

    Re: Baroness Ashton from the previous thread. This makes me incredibly angry. It was reported that she likened the shootings at the Jewish school in France to deaths of children in Gaza. Whilst strictly true it’s incredibly misleading. What she actually said was this, in an address to Palestinian youth leaders:

    “We are gathered here because we recognise the potential of the youth of Palestine. Against all the odds, they continue to learn, to work, to dream and aspire to a better future. And in days when we remember young people who have been killed in all sorts of terrible circumstances – the Belgian children having lost their lives in a terrible tragedy… when we remember what happened in Toulouse today, when we remember what happened when I was in Norway last week a year ago, when we know what is happening in Syria, when we see what’s happened in Gaza and Sderot, in different parts of the world – we remember young people and children who lose their lives. Here are young people who are asking not to be leaders of the future, but to be taken seriously as leaders of today. And it is to them that we should look and to them we should listen and it is to them that I pay tribute.”

    ( h ttp://ec.europa.eu/avservices/player/streaming.cfm?sid=199376&type=e – at 12 minutes)

    And yet it was portrayed as if she arbitrarily used the deaths in France as a stick to beat Israel over child deaths in Gaza, or the latter to detract from the former. I don’t see how anyone could object to her actual words, unless they object to the concept that Palestinian children are people and have suffered and sometimes died- the latter facts being indisputable. ( see here recently h ttp://www.councilforthenationalinterest.org/israelpalestineconflict/missingheadlines/item/1486-gaza-death-toll-rises-to-18-including-child-53-injured and here h ttp://occupiedpalestine.wordpress.com/2012/03/16/casualties-of-the-last-attacks-on-gaza-visit-to-shifa-hospital-photos-by-rosa_schiano/; here from 2009 h ttp://blog.amnestyusa.org/middle-east/there-is-no-lens-wide-enough-to-embrace-the-sheer-dimensions-of-the-devastation/ and here from Chris Hedges in the early noughties
    h ttp://www.bintjbeil.com/articles/en/011001_hedges.html – June 17 entry )

    She even feels the need to tip her hat to the false equivalence between the systematic killing of civilians in the OPT and crude and sporadic artillery attacks in Israel. This is pure ideological enforcement against anyone who eludes to Palestinian suffering and thus Israeli culpability.

  24. We’re still waiting for this month’s Populus/Times poll. Last month it was out on the 20th.

  25. @Hannah

    You do know that many people, particularly in the media find it offensive when anyone seeks to compare the lives of anyone to those of the Palestinans? They are non-people.

    For various geopolitical reasons certain lives will always be more valuable than others. It’s a corollary to “might is right”, and we see it on a daily.basis in.conflicts around the world. If at any point in time you happen to stand with the weak or (like most would like) treat everyone’s lives as being of equal significance, rather than play to the tune and in the lexicon of the mighty in ascribing for themselves and their friends an exceptionalism above and beyond others, then you know what you cam expect.

  26. @Andy JS
    Maybe they are waiting for the Budget?

  27. Romney pojected to win Illinois by double digits – CNN/Fox

  28. RAF,

    That’s a disaster for moderation and sanity in American politics, because what was really needed was a Raving Red Republican to win the nomination on a Tea Party platform, get a humiliating Barry Goldwater/Michael Foot type rejection from the voters, and open up the field for someone like Jon Huntsman or Mitch Daniels in 2016 to present a sane alternative (not necessarily a BETTER alternative, but another same one) alternative to Obama’s successor.

    Instead, Romney will lose, the Republicans will blame it on his being too soft, they will run a far-right candidate next time around and the Democrats will get lazy after winning big in 2016, leading to a miserable fag-end Democratic presidency in 2017-2021.

    Joy.

  29. The funny thing is that if Huntsman had won the nomination he’d in all likely-hood have won the presidency.
    I’m not sure if I agree that voters will blame Romney for being too ‘soft conservative’ instead I think the sane people in the party might actually spend the next few years doing everything in their power to reclaim it. Expect a LOT of republicans to be reading up on Tony Blair and New Labour once they lose the election.

  30. BBC is reporting (obviously budget hasn’t been announced – pinch of salt time) that along with the tax cuts, there will be further budget cuts (which haven’t been briefed to journalists) in the budget.

    I can’t see Osborne doing something, at this point, which would be politically damaging to the Tories.
    Unless they’re playing the long-game and once the economy recovers, their message will be ‘The pain was worth it’.

  31. When a voter shifts their VI from one party to another are they not often more inclined to be less likely to vote?
    They are breaking an allegence, think they will vote for someone else but are still not sure if their new home is worthy of their vote and think that they may not vote at all.
    Hence new support is inevitably softer and a liklihood to vote filter will be dampen apparent support for a gaining party; as that support is soft, though, that dampening is justified perhaps.

    The exception appears to be that much of the 2010 LD – Lab switch(over half maybe) is different and seems firm for reasons we have discussed before.
    I would think that to respond to a poll on-lne requires more effort than answering a phone and a higher level of engagement in the process. Perhaps such respondents are, therefore, less knee-jerk in switching VI due to sort term events?

  32. Hannah – thanks for the Ashton quote.
    Rob S/Colin – it does seem the reporting you saw was unfair, unless I am missing something?

  33. JIMJAM

    Yes I agree-with a caveat.

    I don’t understand the point of conflating children who lost their lives in such very different circumstances. It is fraught with the potential for offence .

    Well meaning -but misguided.

  34. @Tinged Fringe

    I have always wanted deeper cuts to the Public Sector but I suspect you are right. Mind you this is a real reforming Government (Education, Welfare and NHS legislation) so we will have to wait and see

    @Ken & Colin
    You completely misread my post yesterday, I have never ever been accused of being a lefty before!!

  35. “Two police officers were injured in a shoot-out in Toulouse on Wednesday with a gunman claiming links to al Qaeda and who is believed to responsible for the killing of four people at a Jewish school and three soldiers in southwest France.

    Interior Minister Claude Gueant said that the 24-year-old man had made several visits to Afghanistan and Pakistan and had said that he was acting out of revenge for France’s military involvement overseas.

    “He claims to be a mujahideen and to belong to al Qaeda,” Gueant told journalists at the scene of the siege.

    “He wanted revenge for the Palestinian children and he also wanted to take revenge on the French army because of its foreign interventions,” Gueant said.”

    euronews.

  36. THE OTHER HOWARD
    I suspect plenty of people share your vision – unfortunately whatever it’s objective merits (I’m a panarchist, so I sympathise a little), it’s not politically the right time (even if the economic case can be made) to do so.

    It could be one of those cases where doing the right thing (obviously I disagree that it’s the right thing – but there is a case for it) is also the unpopular thing.

  37. COLIN
    I read the same thing – this can’t be good news given the heated debate on immigration leading up to the French presidential elections, but hopefully people will take a step back before deciding what to do – a knee-jerk reaction (whether from the French left-wing or right-wing) probably isn’t going to help.

  38. THE OTHER HOWARD

    Sorry, but I don’t recall the post in question, or my response to it ?

    I agree with you about the reforming agenda of this Government. I am glad to see them sticking to it.
    Difficult economic circumstances make public sector reform more important, not less….even if they render it politically difficult.

  39. Tinged

    I agree.

    It’s probably a relief to NS that it isn’t a far right murderer, given some of the things he has been saying in their election.

    But an Islamist factor is perhaps even more worrying.

  40. It seems to me you are far too keen to write off a consistent and growing labour lead from a regular poll and too keen to recognise a couple of biggish variations from ones done less often but showing a more optimistic resut for the government.

    Are you sure some personal bias is not intruding here?

  41. MARTIN
    Perhaps you’re seeing bias where bias doesn’t exist?
    AW does a pretty good job of reporting polling – even when it shows that the public doesn’t support the policies of his preferred party.

    It is always important to point out looking at trends rather than individual polls (which AW does when polls show massive leads for Labour or Tory).

    And this is coming from a poster who is probably the furthest left-wing of the lot.

  42. Yougov has probably picked up the growing alarm at the thought of road pricing. Despite what Dave says, companies wouldn’t turn up the chance to exploit their market position.

  43. Tinged

    Some very interesting commentary on Sky news from a French journalist.

    There is great concern in France that this was a French national. The French commentator drew a contrast between the “anglo-saxon model” of “multi-culturalism”, and the “Republican” model in France of “integration” & “one nation”.

    The implication was pretty clear-that whilst this might not have been unexpected in UK, it is a huge shock for France to discover an enemy within.

  44. THE OTHER HOWARD………..I’m with COLIN there, I don’t recall your post, or implying, God forbid, that you’re a Leftie, however, I’m with you all the way on smaller government and less interference by the state. :-)

  45. Welsh Labour has just alienated the welsh farming community, by performing a U-turn on Badger culling.

  46. COLIN
    This isn’t the first time that France has had problems with integration – the Paris riots, for example.

    Like I said, whatever happens to policy – I hope it’s well thought out and tailored to the solution that is right for France (rather than an ideological multicultural or one-nation solution).
    Obviously I have my own ideological bias – I favour multiculturalism, but that may not be the right solution for France – especially given it’s one-nation cultural history (Academie Francaise, etc).

  47. COLIN…………..If you visit the Paris suburb of, Seine-Saint-Denis you will find yourself in a parallel Muslim world of Sharia law and radical Muslim clerics striving for a separate identity, it’s frightening and intimidating, I wouldn’t recommend going, unless you are accompanied, as I was, by a very radical looking individual and a couple of heavies. There are over 5 million Muslims in France, and in the ‘burbs, they make no secret of their desire to establish a secondary Muslim state, the French generally accept that things will deteriorate, but are at a loss as to what to do.

  48. KEN

    Thanks.

    Sounds frightening.

    Presumably grist to the mill of Le Pen.

    Multi culturalism has done UK no favours imo-and integration appears to have failed in France.

    Frightening & worrying signs across Europe.

  49. I continue to be astonished that the coalition is polling over 30% considering the policies it is implementing.

    I think this is due largely to
    a) public apathy with politics
    b) lack of understanding about what the policies being introduced will mean
    c) the coalition cuts to fully take effect yet

    anyway I know that sort of comment is a bit too political for this site so to comment on the polls, I do think that whatever the coalition does this year I do not see that there will be much change in the polls. We are still 3 years from the next GE, people remain unconvinced by Labour and they therefore will give the coalition their (possibly increasingly weakening) support for now.

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