Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%. It looks as though both the 7 point lead and the 3 point lead we’ve had in the last couple of days were both normal variation within the margin of error and the underlying picture remains as last week – a Labour lead of five points or so.


66 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%”

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  1. Statgeek:

    Interesting London effect, but I don’t buy your argument as the explanation for the shift in the YouGov lead. This went from evens to Labour lead at the beginning of March, but the London shift was already in January and February. If you look carefully at the data comparing Feb to March you can see the Con to Lab shift in most regions.

    So I think you found something interesting, but I think there must be a different explanation for the recent UK-wide shift.

  2. I’ve been thinking about this idea of a 50% tax rate being ‘anti-aspirational’ and hence opposed by a lot of lower earners. The thought that always strikes me is why does this only apply to the top rates of pay, why isn’t (for example) removing child benefit from higher-rate tax payers, ot freezing the threshold at which higher rate tax is paid anti-aspirational as well? Because presumably these aspirational people must expect to pass through these levels of income before reaching the rarified heights of £150k per annum.

    Or are the only aspirational tax payers already paying 40% tax – which then begs the question are they really happy to accept an increase in their current tax burden in the hope of a reward in the future?

  3. Unless its a slow burner the Obama&Dave show doesn’t seem to have had any affect. Perhaps even the opposite, all that slobbering, banquets and Ruritanian soldiers strutting about at a time when people feel unsure, didn’t look quite right.

  4. @ChrisLane1945

    “….never good enough for the posh school rugby or soccer teams”

    If, as I presume from what you say, you went to a “posh school”, you were very lucky to have a soccer team to play for at all. Apart from Eton and Harrow who play Football as their main winter game, probably due to some perverse form of inverted snobbery, Rugby Union trumps Association Football in most public schools. The one I attended played Rugby and Hockey in the winter terms and Cricket in the summer, despite, as far as I could tell, Football being the more popular game amongst the majority of boys. A few of us renegades (I was Captain of the Rugby 3rd XV!) formed a Sunday Football club and we played amongst ourselves on a bit of scrub land on the far corner of the vast school playing fields, with a pair of rudimentary,rickety and rusty old goalposts at either end of the unmarked pitch.

    However, there was a teacher there at the time, a layman with distinctly left wing leanings, who became an inspiration to me in the 6th Form. He was my Economics A Level tutor and a football fanatic to boot. He single-handedly got our nascent Sunday Soccer club off the ground, found us a better pitch, got some goals with some nets on them and, by the very end, even a few fixtures against local football playing schools. Ironically, we got a fixture against Uppingham School (Stephen Fry’s alma mater) and I remember it with acute pain even now. 1-1 and deep into injury time, a cross arrives at my feet, unmarked, on the edge of the six yard area. Goalkeeper floundering and the open net gaping. I side-foot the chance against the underside of the bar and, via a defender’s clearance, the ball is gone and the chance is missed. It wasn’t quite Ronnie Rosenthal, but it was a contender for miss of the century! Much derision from spectators and players alike.

    A crestfallen young 17 year old centre forward called Hadley never made the side again! Fernando Torres be warned.

  5. Chris L – my 13 year olds ecf is 144 at the moment, me below 100 as have just started 2 seasons ago and as you say losing from a winning position is the worse feeling.

    There are plenty of political resonances.
    Short term tactics are useful but nothing beats a proper strategy (plan) and needing a platform to build on (opening). Also we can over complicate when the same themes return again and again but he top players need to respond to new developments and adapt or they get left behind.

  6. I also attended a rugby playing school. We had a master who was a double Cambridge blue, soccer & cricket, the target of much mockery – why doesn’t he play a man’s game – which ceased when he was seen kicking rubgy goals side-foot from the halfway line.

  7. Elton John’s wedding, Whitney Houston’s funeral, and when Barack met Dave.

  8. I see In the Telegraph Willie Walsh, chief executive of British Airways owner International Airlines Group, and Stephen Hester, chief executive of the Royal Bank of Scotland, have warned that UK companies lack the confidence to invest.

    Mr Walsh mocked the coalition, saying it changed its policy for growth “every other week”.

  9. The Tories kept the top rate of income tax at 60% from 1979 -1988. If that was acceptable to Thatcher for so long, why should a 50% rate be a problem?

  10. There seems to have been a real drop in Cons support among over 60s. Now down to 9% lead over Lab compared to 19% in. late Feb.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/xzzu8lqmed/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-150312.pdf

  11. Ozwald – read this: On Cherry Picking.

    The 9 point lead is almost certainly an outlier – on previous days the figure was 12 points, 16 points, 14 points.

    In late February the 19 point lead was a similar outlier – polls on the days either side had leads of 11 points and 14 points.

    You can’t base a trend on cherry-picking extremes. One could just as well take the 11 point Con lead amongst over 60s on Feb 27th and compare it to the 16 point lead in this Tuesday’s poll and declare the Tory lead amongst over 60s is growing.

  12. Friday silly question.

    If there was an asteroid due to hit the earth, would political leaders in any country announce a year ahead, that it was going to hit somewhere ?

    http://news.sky.com/home/technology/article/16189789

    I was just thinking that all the media coverage is of asteroids just missing the earth. What would the political strategy be if they knew an asteroid would hit ?

  13. R Huckle

    I imagine it would excite some to argue for a tax cut for the richest… ;-)

  14. Anthony – I have returned after being absent for a while. I clicked on the London Polls Mayoral Voting Intention on the right hand side of this page to get an update. However, the most recent listed is for 2008? Have there been any polls yet for this year’s contest?

  15. Tony – there have, but I haven’t collated them all together. In short though, all recently published polls have shown Boris and Ken virtually neck and neck, normally within 2 points of each other.

  16. This page records opinion polls for London mayoral election 2012:

    h
    ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2012

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