Earlier this week the Scotsman had some new YouGov Scottish figures, full tabs are now up here. Topline voting intention with changes from YouGov’s last Scottish poll in January are below and show some level of Labour recovery, particularly in Westminster voting intention.

Westminster voting intention: CON 17%(+1), LAB 42%(+7), LDEM 7%(nc), SNP 30%(-7)
Holyrood constituency: CON 12%(-1), LAB 36%(+4), LDEM 8%(+1), SNP 40%(-4)
Holyrood regional: CON 13%(nc), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 7%(nc), SNP 38%(-1)

On the referendum on Scottish independence, 32% of people would vote Yes, 53% would vote No (15% said don’t know or won’t vote).

YouGov also asked people’s preference between the options in a three-way referendum, status-quo, independence or devo-max. There 33% preferred the status-quo, 36% devo-max and 24% independence (comparing the two questions, about a quarter of people who would vote Yes in an independence referendum say their first preference is devo-max, about a third of people who would vote No in an independence referendum would prefer devo-max).

The survey then asked about various different facets of Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the UK, on things like having a shared currency, a shared head of state, shared defence and so on. On the head of state, 60% of Scots wanted to keep the Queen as Head of State, compared to 24% who would prefer not to have a head of State (only 7% would prefer a different Head of State). On the currency, 82% of Scots want to keep the pound as their currency, compared to 5% who would prefer the Euro and 8% who would prefer Scotland to have its own currency. On the armed forces, again 67% would prefer Scotland to contribute troops to the British armed forces, 22% would prefer Scotland to have its own armed forces.

We find a similar pattern on whether Scotland should have its own embassies, its own immigration laws and its own diplomatic status on things like the EU, NATO and the United Nations – respondents would prefer Scotland to be represented by the UK, rather than go it alone. The notable exception to this trend is when it comes to spending. 44% of people would prefer Scotland to have fiscal independence with full control of all its tax and spending and no money from Westminster, 40% would prefer Scotland to continue to share fiscal policy with the rest of the UK.

Most of these questions were repeats from 2008, and the trend since then is mostly a slight movement towards the “unionist” viewpoints, though again, with the exception of the question on fiscal independence. Unsurprisingly there was also a significant shift on the currency question – in 2008 21% of Scots would have preferred the Euro to the pound, that’s now dropped to 5%.


61 Responses to “New YouGov/Scottish poll”

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  1. There`s definitely a shift of the swing voters towards Labour…Ed is improving slowly and we should remember he`s not yet two years into the job and he`s fighting against a hostile media…If he can get the media onside,this government is finished.

  2. It appears the scottish vote has helped Labour in the national polls this week.

    So far this week they’ve posted an increase of 6-8% in scotland on the regional crossbreaks compared to previous polls of last week and previous weeks.

    This together with the Scottish poll posted below explains why they’ve suddenly gone from around a 2% lead in the polls (with a few sample errors/margin of error mixed in) to a 4%ish lead this week.

    Whether this is just a blib for the SNP and a temporary boost for Labour nationally or start of a real anti-SNP/independance feeling that trascends into a prolonged increased Labour vote nationally remains to be seen.

  3. @SMUKESH

    I think that’s some wishful thinking on your part and how exactly has he improved?

    His appoval ratings are still in the -40% range so he’s still doing worse than before xmas last year.

    A few good PMQs doesn’t make a good leader and it appears the public still aren’t impressed.

  4. Smukesh,Peter Oborne described EM in the Telegraph
    this morning as,the increasingly impressive Ed Millliband.
    And as for that set up phone in,well!

  5. Leetay

    Given the comparative size of the populations a shift of 4-5% in Scotland wouldn’t go anywhere near making a shift of a couple of points in GB.

  6. BT – Just because something isn’t a voodoo poll doesn’t mean it isn’t a god awful agree/disagree statement grid.

    If you’d asked if people agreed/disagreed with a statement arguing in favour of gay marriage you’d probably have got a different picture. I’ll track down some decent polling on the subject…

  7. Poor old Nick Palmer.

    No sooner does he speculate on a Labour improving position in Scotland than the SNP take the lead again in tonights cross breaks!a

  8. Nick Palmer? Who he?

    Somebody who was told to ignore tiny crossbreak samples?

  9. I may be a bit dim, but what other polls, and whats a crossbreak?

    The only other poll ive seen is another IPSOS mori poll which puts support for independence slightly higher than this, but still less than 40%?

  10. In passing, is it possible that the Scottish Polls section on the right hasn’t been updated for a LONG time? The most recent poll there is May 2011 and I’m sure there have been polls since…

  11. Yesterday’s Sunday Herald (pp. 9-10) had a surprising – to me anyway – story based on supposed leaks of Labour’s polling work in North Lanarkshire. Summary version:

    2007 result was Labour 40 seats out of 70/49% of first preferences, SNP 23/31%.

    Labour’s current internal figures are said to show Labour 30 seats/41%, SNP 32 seats/47%.

    I’m a bit dubious as to the detail of the forecast as that shows “others” gaining a seat whereas I’d expect a squeeze. But even if these numbers are statistically sound – and we have no way of knowing that – there’s a long way to go and much could change between now and May.

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