Earlier this week the Scotsman had some new YouGov Scottish figures, full tabs are now up here. Topline voting intention with changes from YouGov’s last Scottish poll in January are below and show some level of Labour recovery, particularly in Westminster voting intention.
Westminster voting intention: CON 17%(+1), LAB 42%(+7), LDEM 7%(nc), SNP 30%(-7)
Holyrood constituency: CON 12%(-1), LAB 36%(+4), LDEM 8%(+1), SNP 40%(-4)
Holyrood regional: CON 13%(nc), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 7%(nc), SNP 38%(-1)
On the referendum on Scottish independence, 32% of people would vote Yes, 53% would vote No (15% said don’t know or won’t vote).
YouGov also asked people’s preference between the options in a three-way referendum, status-quo, independence or devo-max. There 33% preferred the status-quo, 36% devo-max and 24% independence (comparing the two questions, about a quarter of people who would vote Yes in an independence referendum say their first preference is devo-max, about a third of people who would vote No in an independence referendum would prefer devo-max).
The survey then asked about various different facets of Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the UK, on things like having a shared currency, a shared head of state, shared defence and so on. On the head of state, 60% of Scots wanted to keep the Queen as Head of State, compared to 24% who would prefer not to have a head of State (only 7% would prefer a different Head of State). On the currency, 82% of Scots want to keep the pound as their currency, compared to 5% who would prefer the Euro and 8% who would prefer Scotland to have its own currency. On the armed forces, again 67% would prefer Scotland to contribute troops to the British armed forces, 22% would prefer Scotland to have its own armed forces.
We find a similar pattern on whether Scotland should have its own embassies, its own immigration laws and its own diplomatic status on things like the EU, NATO and the United Nations – respondents would prefer Scotland to be represented by the UK, rather than go it alone. The notable exception to this trend is when it comes to spending. 44% of people would prefer Scotland to have fiscal independence with full control of all its tax and spending and no money from Westminster, 40% would prefer Scotland to continue to share fiscal policy with the rest of the UK.
Most of these questions were repeats from 2008, and the trend since then is mostly a slight movement towards the “unionist” viewpoints, though again, with the exception of the question on fiscal independence. Unsurprisingly there was also a significant shift on the currency question – in 2008 21% of Scots would have preferred the Euro to the pound, that’s now dropped to 5%.