There is a new ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror tomorrow, if I recall correctly it’s only the second non-YouGov of February given that all the other companies’ fieldwork dates seem to have started clustering towards the end of the month.

Topline figures, with changes from ComRes’s last online poll a month ago, are CON 39%(+1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 13%(nc). The changes from the previous ComRes poll are insignificant, but for the record it’s the first time ComRes’s online polls have shown a Tory lead since October 2010 and supports the conclusion that the polls are pretty neck and neck.

UPDATE1: Hold the presses. ComRes’s press release said the Conservatives were one point ahead, but the actual tables are here and it looks to me as if Labour are one point ahead (pages 19-21 of the pdf). Let me double check.

UPDATE2: Waiting for Andrew Hawkins to have a check of the tabs

UPDATE3: According to Andrew the topline figures were right, the tabs were wrong, so back to business as usual. Corrected versions of the tables should be up soon if not already there.


28 Responses to “ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 39%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%”

  1. Not related to this poll.

    But this video of Kevin Rudd Aussie Foreign minister is worth a watch. ( the language is a bit strong !)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOUFKZBpFTY

  2. Well done AW for spotting the error

  3. I hope the headline figures are correct because The Independent has an online blog already…It would be very embarassing if this is an error

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2012/02/18/tories-take-first-lead-with-comres-since-october-2010/

  4. @Smukesh

    And naturally I hope that they’re not!

    The detailed tables say Labour’s ahead. And as the headline summary is always in reverse order to the detailed tables, it’s very easy to see how someone at ComRes got the order muddled up.

  5. Well if it`s an error,it is funny how errors never favour Labour

    I suppose people believe what they want to believe

  6. The funny thing is, I don’t think it makes the slightest difference to anyone’s analysis whether its a 1 point lead for the Tories or for Labour.

  7. Tabs have now been removed from Comres website.

    Clearly an error but which way it goes once that error has been corrected is pretty insignificant really.

    A 1% lead either way is nothing for either side to shout home about.

  8. At the risk of sounding silly, isn’t the “propensity of Australian politicians to swear” up there with “bear toilet habits”, “papal religion choices”, and “lack of Sherlockian excrement”?. They’re not known for being shy, fragile flowers…

    Regards, Martyn

  9. Andrew Hawkins (head of ComRes) says the topline is right and it’s the wrong version of the tables – corrected version should be up on the ComRes website soon.

  10. Nice one Anthony.

    They don’t sneek ’em past you :-)

  11. Seems very dodgy to me,,Blimey this is their full time job…You would think they could get it right 1st time..
    Would think they are working on a cover up as this very moment.

  12. I’d love to be in the room the next time YouGov are pitching against ComRes for a big polling commission……

  13. @Neil A

    Please see my reply to you on the previous thread.

  14. @ R Huckle

    I’m surprised that a video like that got leaked. It’s just kinda weird. Who would have made a video like that and then decided to leak it?

    I imagine we’ve all had moments like that when we’ve tried to film ourselves.

  15. Such is the macho silliness of Australian politics, I don’t think excessive foulmouthedness is necessarily a vote-loser.

  16. @BillyBob.

    Noted. I think you’re right. From a polling point of view I think DC scored a definite “hit” on Libya though. For what it’s worth in the grand scheme of things.

  17. @SoCalLib

    The camera is not switched on when the subject starts speaking and off when he stops: there will be bits immediately beforehand for lighting and color checking, sound checks, makeup refreshes, etc, and bits immediately after to check that it worked or if a retake is necessary. If this is recorded, then it may be leaked afterward, or if it is part of a live feed, then control of further dissemination is immedately lost.

    For this reason, politicians are told to always treat a camera/microphone as if they are live. But being human, they occasionally forget.

    Regards, Martyn

  18. Martyn

    Including from inside the safety of your own private car in Runcorn!

  19. Alan do you mean Rochdale?

  20. @Alan

    I have to apologise for my lack of knowledge, but I don’t know what “inside the safety of your own private car in Runcorn” is a reference to.

    Regards, Martyn

  21. The Green Benches blog (http://eoin-clarke.blogspot.com/) makes interesting reading today about Cameron’s visit to a NHS hospital in Newcastle and what happened there.

  22. JimJam

    Mea Culpa

    I was thinking about something completely else at the same time and just typed the wrong “Northern town beginning with R” without thinking.

    My apologies to the good people of Rochdale and Runcorn!

  23. ‘Not related to this poll.
    But this video of Kevin Rudd Aussie Foreign minister is worth a watch. ( the language is a bit strong !)’

    Not if you are Australian :)

  24. When my daughter was teaching in Australia, she was surprised by the “ripe” language that her Head Teacher routinely used at school assemblies.

  25. 1% lead for Tories; 1% lead for Labour (especially with a monthly snapshot) means one thing: red and blue neck and neck = the new ‘polldrums’

  26. COMRES have produced an accurate table for a Labour lead,then say Conservatives lead…Give me a break man

  27. This is admittedly completely off-topic but I had a question for you guys on education (a topic we’ve discussed before). Do you guys allow for home schooling of children? That is, where kids attend neither state school or public school (in the English and Welsh systems) or public or private school (in the Scottish system) and instead are taught at home by one of their parents?

    And if so, is there any kind of party or ideological breakdown on the validity of this method of education?

  28. @ Neil A

    “Such is the macho silliness of Australian politics, I don’t think excessive foulmouthedness is necessarily a vote-loser.”

    Lol, I was about to say.

    @ Martyn

    “The camera is not switched on when the subject starts speaking and off when he stops: there will be bits immediately beforehand for lighting and color checking, sound checks, makeup refreshes, etc, and bits immediately after to check that it worked or if a retake is necessary. If this is recorded, then it may be leaked afterward, or if it is part of a live feed, then control of further dissemination is immedately lost.

    For this reason, politicians are told to always treat a camera/microphone as if they are live. But being human, they occasionally forget.”

    I’m sure. Some politicians I think should just refrain from talking altogether. Lol.