Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, a one point Conservative lead. This follows yesterday’s poll which had a four point Labour lead. The two main parties still appear to be pretty much neck-and-neck in YouGov’s daily polling, but the fact that we’re getting slightly more Labour leads than Tory ones, and slightly bigger Labour leads than Tory ones, suggests that the underlying position is probably a small Labour lead – perhaps a point or so.


184 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 40%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%”

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  1. HOODED MAN, ROGER MEXICO AND ANN MILES.

    Funny responses, thank you.

    A very very Good Evening as Milan triumph and Glagow Rangers lose points.

    ROGER.
    The sensus fidelium actually promotes sainthood when the saint is still alive, so the patron saint of Labour winners is thus declared.

    Becket’s tomb and Richard of Chichester’s tomb were both desecrated by a welsh-english king’s troops to show the old leaders were gone.

    Any ideas about the identity of Lord Hattersley please? Is he the same man of whom I wrote 30 minutes ago. Is he the same Hattersley as the man wto Sheffied Grammar School and then campaigned against them?
    Surely not.

  2. CHRISLANE1945

    Wot? No views on the snubbing of the Cardinal?

  3. Mike Tanner

    Ref analysis of recent U/G polls. Taking the reports listed over the previous four weeks, 19th Jan to 14th Feb ie 13 reports in total. The average for Conservative is 39.46, Labour 39.30, L/D 9.76. I am not sure of the statistical correctness of this but it does show a very slight conservative lead, rather than your perceived or estimated Labour lead of one point or so ????.

    There actually should be 20 polls in that period not 13. Have you used all the polls that appear in YouGov’s Public Opinion Archive:

    http://labs.yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?year=&month=&category=politics

    (they usually start with the word ‘Update’)

    or just the ones that Anthony has blogged about. He doesn’t always give a separate post for each YouGov poll, just ones that are unusual or to provide a regular round-up. Also he’s run out of ways to say ‘polldrums’, just like the rest of us. :)

  4. OLD NAT.
    Enlighten me please on which Cardinal. Thank you!!

  5. Lab 40%
    Con 39%
    Lib 9%

  6. Well thank god someone finds this thread remotely
    amusing because it seems to me a little deadly,please
    let there be a poll soon.

  7. Will Old Nat still hesitate to agree with my second ‘Yawn’ in 24 hours?

  8. CHRISLANE1945

    See my post at 6:54

  9. Robin, I’m confused now. Does this mean the Labour lead is expanding or contracting?

  10. I have a theory that Yougov to show they are independent and not partisan, are producing daily polls showing alternating leads between the two main parties.

    Tomorrow the Tories will be in the lead again.

  11. JIM JAM

    A brisk walk should stop you yawning.

  12. I see Angela Merkel is popular in Greece.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2101614/Greece-debt-crisis-Greeks-brand-Germans-Nazis-taking-control-economy.html

    Is it bad taste for the DM to carry the pictures in their paper?

  13. OLD NAT.
    Thanks.
    Interesting article. Warsi must have forgotten Scotland.

    Like Randolph churchill forgot Goschen

  14. @R HUCKLE

    “Tomorrow the Tories will be in the lead again.”

    I’ll have a go at Lib Dems on 9%. :)

  15. Thanks for many good wishes.

    Post op 1 day ICU; 2 days HDU;.5 days in ward.

    I had the unfamiliar experience of watching television and realised that I am missing very little.

    I watched Lord Glasman’s lecture and today sent a textual analysis to Angus Robertson CC to my constituency MSP.

  16. JOHN B DICK

    Good to see you back

  17. JOHN B DICK

    Hope the surgery went ok

  18. My email to Angus Robertson

    In Lord Glasman’s recent 3867 word lecture Blue Labour and the Politics of Place there are only eight occurrences in total of the words Britain; British; and England. There is no usage whatever of Scotland or Scottish. I find that surprising in view of the title and subject and the fact that we are currently well into the referendum campaign.

    One occurrence of Bank of England and two historic pre-Union references to England are certainly correct usage and a reference to Household Debt in England may well correctly reflect the title and content of readily accessible data in the House of Lords library as may be the British economy.

    Banks in Britain has to be set aside because banks of Scottish origin trade in England and are correctly described as in Britain compared with the number in Germany though it is nice to see that banks with their head office and main business in London do not always revert to being Scottish when they fail.

    That leaves Banks of England and Cities of England.

    It is the title and subject of the lecture, and its formal, written, academic style, together with the omission of Scotland from the key passage below, that suggests to me that it is at least possible that these two references relate not to Britain, or even to England, but to what we would refer to as r-UK.

    “The starting point is the world as it is and the development of tidal energy is appropriate for Northumbria. The resistance to the Chinese ownership of Northumbria water and its mutualisation and ownership by local people is vital to this. Its human complement is community organising and the ownership by the people of their natural environment and football clubs. The vocational renewal is something that will require radical restructuring in the educational system to address a lack of skill among the workforce and the use of mass immigration to fill the gap, and the systematic neglect and under-achievement of working class students. The north west would have an orientation towards food and transport, the east midlands to engineering and the south west to fishing and possibly cheese. The nurturing, preservation and renewal of skills that are understood in terms of inter-generational practice, rather than project specific outcomes, is essential to this.

    A third component of this is changes to corporate governance and the representation of the workforce on the boards of companies. This embeds productive businesses in the localities in which they work, it generates a greater engagement with the knowledge and expertise of workers. A balance of interests requires the representation of owners, workers and users in the pursuit of the good of the company.

    The embedding of the economy in an institutional system is one way of conceptualising this. It is however, only half the story. There needs to be a renewal of political institutions. I have written before about city parliaments and that needs practical development. Let’s take my city, our city, this city, London. …..”

    I see only two possible interpretations:

    Either: Lord Glasman is just another Southern gobshite whose interest in, knowledge of and understanding of Scotland is at a breathtakingly low level. This despite the profile of the referendum issue and the very real possibility that in the period to which the lecture refers (post 2015 election) it is entirely possible that the Scottish electorate, having narrowly rejected independence, could without any inconsistency whatever give the SNP sufficient additional seats from all the other three parties, (perhaps even a majority of the Scottish seats) for the SNP to determine which party is in government. In a narrowly hung parliament, the Labour leader would have to face the Faustian choice of governing England with a minority of English MP’s but with SNP (& PC) S&C. That is of course what the polling data currently suggests is likely. The price would be such that Lord Home’s assurance might come to fruition after all, but not in the way he imagined.

    Or: Lord Glasman has betrayed the fact that at least a portion of the Labour Party has accepted that by 2015 Scotland will no longer be governed by the UK parliament.

    A third theoretical possibility is, in my view, untenable. Lord Glasman is certain not only that referendum will be lost by the SNP but that a future Labour government with an overall majority can govern Scotland as before without even the pretence that it has any interest in the Scottish economy, and that the lecture is an open admission of that intent.

    You should note that neither of the first two possibilities says anything either way about the strength of Lord Glasman’s claim to be one of Labour’s leading thinkers, I do think some of his ideas are well worth considering. If my first speculation is correct, then I am reading too much into the evidence, and there is nothing new here except further evidence of the poor quality of the Unionist side of the debate. The balance of probability is, in my view, that my second speculation is correct and that an influential element in Labour expects to lose the referendum.

    Either way, that’s good news for the independence campaign, but if I am right, Lord Glasman has inadvertently given away more information than he intended.

    I think that’s news that will interest you.

  19. CHRISLANE1945

    “Warsi must have forgotten Scotland.”

    That does show her brilliant political acumen at this particular point in UK politics, doesn’t it?

    The RC Kirk here are NOT pleased!

  20. Roger Mexico,

    Enjoyed your post, especially linking in the Vatican and “chateauneuf du pape”
    Nice touch :-)

    Maybe Campbell is quoted unfinished – “We don’t do God……..we work for him……..”

    ChrisLane,

    “Becket’s tomb……..desecrated…….to show the old leaders were gone”

    I didn’t realise Margaret had departed us?

  21. R Huckle,

    “Is it bad taste for the DM to carry the pictures in their paper?”

    Not in my view, it’s reporting a news story from Greece. I have no doubt they enjoyed publishing it, but they didn’t ‘mock up’ Merkel as a Nazi themselves (that’s much more up The Sun’s street…..)

  22. Interesting news from Greece and unemployment figures. I get the feeling that both stories are worse than many think.

    It looks increasingly like Greece is not going to reach a deal and this is the first time that European solidarity is going to break. Putting aside the economics, this is very significant politics which I suspect will have major implications way beyond the Greek crisis. If nothing else, it demonstrates that the richer northern nations are only interested in solidarity if it provides them with an open market – once it provides them with a big bill, suddenly it’s every nation for it’s own.

    On UK unemployment (or more relevantly, employment); today’s headline figures don’t seem all that bad in total. However, the CIPD analysis found that the growth in people working was more than accounted for by an increase in self employment, and that those self employed people were mainly working part time – not at all the normal expected pattern of self employment.

    The CIPD analysis suggests that the idea that these figures show a flat economy may be a little optimistic, with the reality being more that there is less work around and people are doing what they can to stay afloat. It has to be said though – having unemployment at 2.67m after the recession we have had should still be welcomed. In the 1980’s, with a smaller population, unemployment was higher than this even without taking account of Norman Tebbit’s scams to massage the figures.

    One thought on this is that this is the first recession when we have had tax credits. Perhaps Gordon Brown does deserve some credit for developing a system that encourages more labour market flexibility? I don’t know, but it’s clear that part time work is currently propping up the unemployment figures

  23. Encouraging to see UKIP holding up at 5%.

  24. While I was enjoying myself in hospital, my wife went to a family 80th birthday party where she was seated between two women who had been at school with Fred the Shred.

    My son said that although FG had lost his knighthood, he had not lost his professional qualification and that, since I was a member of the same professional body, I presumably could initiate that process. As a customer of the bank he suggested that I do that for him.

    Considering where I had been, I found it difficult to imagine how any bwanker or accountant could do professional word attracting the usual form of reward and be honoured for bringing honour to the nation.

    On the oher hand, people like my surgeon in the “bloated public sector” who work for the benefit of humanity, part of whose reward is the respect and admiration of colleagues and patients, do not have that appreciation formally recognised to a comparable degree.

  25. HOODED MAN.

    LOL on the Blessed Margaret of the Caravan.

    She was Head Girl of Notre Dame High School Norwich, an old school of mine.

    Former bennite, very rude to Mr Kinnock about his abstention in the Benn-Healey vote.

    She did well as interim leader after John Smith RIP died.
    And her exclamation on becoming foreign sec is history

  26. @Hooded Man

    “Not in my view, it’s reporting a news story from Greece. I have no doubt they enjoyed publishing it, but they didn’t ‘mock up’ Merkel as a Nazi themselves (that’s much more up The Sun’s street…..)”

    I can imagine the Mail may be, how shall we say, a little sensitive about how it portrays Nazism. Weren’t they modest admirers of this hideous creed in the 1930s? Lord Rothermore, the Mail’s proprietor at the time, was a friend and supporter of both Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler, which influenced the Mail’s political stance towards them during the 1930s. Rothermere’s 1933 leader “Youth Triumphant” praised the new Nazi regime’s accomplishments, and was subsequently used as propaganda by them.

    One of the many, many reasons I don’t touch the Daily Mail with a bargepole. Never have, never will. If I had to choose, God forbid, then I’d take the marginally less dreadful Sun any day. Dacre’s recent oleaginous and unctuous performance at the Leveson Inquiry was further grist to my Mail loathing mill!!

  27. @Sergio

    “Does this mean the Labour lead is expanding or contracting?”

    No.

  28. @FrankG

    I’d forgotten you were in Cyprus (please tell me you are not my uncle… :-) ) Since we will know the outcome by March 20, and that you are on the ground (so to speak), you will be in a better position to assess the situation whatever happens. Good luck.

    @John B Dick

    Welcome back, and I hope you are recovering well.

    Regards, Martyn

  29. Crossbat,

    There’s never any reason to read the Daily Mail as far as I can tell.

    I doubt however their current stance on Eurozone matters would be overly influenced by Rothermere’s sympathies 80 years ago………. not least for the fact that many of their most loyal readers have stayed with them all that time….

    “The Daily Mail. Fighting for your bin collections for over a hundred years!”

  30. Amusing story in the Paper That Must Not Be Linked To, connected with the row about the head of the Student Loans Company and his payment via a private company. Last December:

    Asked by [shadow Cabinet Office minister Gareth] Thomas if any health department staff were paid by means of payments to limited companies in lieu of salary, the health minister Simon Burns said in a written parliamentary answer that no payments were being made to civil servants in this way.

    He also stated: “It is not the department’s policy to permit payments to civil servants by ways of limited companies.”

    In a fresh statement on Wednesday the department said: “The definition of staff in this context refers to civil servants, and we can confirm that no civil servant who is an employee of the department of health is paid in this way. To this extent it was certainly not our intention to mislead anyone involved.

    In other words: no staff are paid this way because anyone paid this way isn’t classified as staff.

    […]more than 25 senior staff employed by the department are paid salaries direct to limited companies, with the likely effect of reducing their tax bills.

    In some cases, the documents show the named individuals are being paid more than £250,000 a year, as well as additional expenses.

    […]

    The payments amount to almost £4.2m for the year. The single largest payment was £273,375. Nineteen of the staff are paid more than £100,000.

    The practice goes back a number of years, so it is not new with the coalition.

  31. ROGER MEXICO

    I love the “To this extent it was certainly not our intention to mislead anyone involved.” In other words, “in everything else it was our absolute intention to mislead everyone.”

  32. @Roger Mexico

    What I really like is

    “To this extent it was certainly not our intention to mislead anyone involved.”

    Which clearly implies that they did intend to mislead those who weren’t involved, and that there were other extents to which they did intend to mislead.

  33. @OldNat

    You beat me to it and said it better.

  34. Robin

    We can agree that the English Health Department said it worst!

  35. @SoCal

    It all sounds very “hanging chads” to me.

    @ChrisLane and Ann Miles

    To me Blair was the consummate con man. He came into his position at exactly the right time, when the Conservatives were nearly dead and previous Labour leaders had rebuilt the party. He coasted along on superficial charm and, having won the election squandered the unique opportunity to make real change. He then lost millions of votes only remaining in power, on the lowest ever turnout, because the Conservatives were still dead in the water. He exploited Gordon Brown and the TB-GBs throughout to steady his left flank by allowing Brown to be portrayed as the great white hope. He then got out right before the whole edifice collapsed, engaging in a self indulgent final tour before leaving. Since then he has periodically popped up to stab the Labour Party in the back and extol his own irreplaceability. And those are his lesser crimes. Can you tell that I despise Tony Blair?

  36. @ Old Nat

    I got this chain email tonight teloing a story they entitled an “Irish Blessing.” I think it’s mislabeled as an Irish one, it should be labeled as Scottish.

    “His name was Fleming, and he was a poor Scottish farmer. One day, while trying to make a living for his family, he heard a cry for help coming from a nearby bog. He dropped his tools and ran to the bog.

    There, mired to his waist in black muck, was a terrified boy, screaming and struggling to free himself. Farmer Fleming saved the lad from what could have been a slow and terrifying death.

    The next day, a fancy carriage pulled up to the Scotsman’s sparse surroundings. An elegantly dressed nobleman stepped out and introduced himself as the father of the boy Farmer Fleming had saved.

    ‘I want to repay you,’ said the nobleman. ‘You saved my son’s life.’

    ‘No, I can’t accept payment for what I did,’ the Scottish farmer replied waving off the offer. At that moment, the farmer’s own son came to the door of the family hovel.

    ‘Is that your son?’ the nobleman asked.

    ‘Yes,’ the farmer replied proudly.

    ‘I’ll make you a deal. Let me provide him with the level of education my own son will enjoy If the lad is anything like his father, he’ll no doubt grow to be a man we both will be proud of.’ And that he did.

    Farmer Fleming’s son attended the very best schools and in time, graduated from St. Mary’s Hospital Medical School in London, and went on to become known throughout the world as the noted Sir Alexander Fleming, the discoverer of Penicillin.

    Years afterward, the same nobleman’s son who was saved from the bog was stricken with pneumonia.

    What saved his life this time? Penicillin.

    The name of the nobleman? Lord Randolph Churchill .. His son’s name?

    Sir Winston Churchill.”

    Not sure if this story is true but if so, it’s pretty cool.

  37. @ Hannah

    “It all sounds very “hanging chads” to me.”

    Caucuses are bullsh*t anyway. That goes for both parties. I don’t think there are any other offices for which state parties can circumvent primary results or select candidates in this manner. This can frustrate a lot of party insiders who try and handpick candidates in races when primary voters don’t agree with them.

    Reminds me of a good story. Back in 2006, there were 5 Congressional seats targeted by the DCCC where Rahm Emmanuel’s handpicked candidates (he felt were best suited to win) lost the primaries much to Rahm’s anger. Rahm, angry over the rejection, pulled funding from all 5 districts and assumed that the Republicans would hold them. All 5 Democrats proceeded to win those seats.

    As for Maine, it seems to me that you should count the votes of voters who actually showed up to vote. I know their turnout has been ridiculously low but I fail to see how 17 of 18 towns in one county (a Republican leaning one) recorded zero votes. Happenned in another county as well. The Washington County thing is a bit more complicated. But if you hold a statewide caucus, you should allow citizens of ALL counties to vote. And if you tell people in that county that they can cancel their vote due to an impending snowstorm and reschedule it, you should honor that.

  38. SoCalLiberal

    That story about Alexander Fleming is what we in Scotland would describe as “keech”.

    Fleming did go to good schools. He went to ordinary Scottish schools – Loudoun Moor School and Darvel School, and Kilmarnock Academy. After that, he went to London to work and, after he inherited money from an uncle, funded his own way through medical school.

    Now that’s cool!

  39. @ Old Nat

    “That story about Alexander Fleming is what we in Scotland would describe as “keech”.

    Fleming did go to good schools. He went to ordinary Scottish schools – Loudoun Moor School and Darvel School, and Kilmarnock Academy. After that, he went to London to work and, after he inherited money from an uncle, funded his own way through medical school.

    Now that’s cool!”

    Is “keech” true or false? I have a feeling that my knowledge of the Scottish language is about to grow again.

    I didn’t know that a Scot had invented penicilin. I did know that a Scot had invented the DVR.

  40. SOCALLIBERAL
    A quick google will tell you “Keech is excrement.” ;)

  41. @Hooded Man

    “There’s never any reason to read the Daily Mail as far as I can tell.

    I doubt however their current stance on Eurozone matters would be overly influenced by Rothermere’s sympathies 80 years ago………. not least for the fact that many of their most loyal readers have stayed with them all that time….”

    I’ve always been mildly amused and surprised in equal measure by the number of Conservatives on this website who routinely denounce what is, in essence, the one daily newspaper that epitomises and champions so much of what I presume they stand for on issues like immigration, Europe, taxation and welfare. Why is that, I wonder? If I could collect a pound for every Tory follower on here who has said “I wouldn’t touch the Daily Mail with a bargepole”, I’d be a wealthy man. It does make you wonder who does buy and read the wretched rag, though, doesn’t it? It is it a journalistic love that dare not speak its name? I gather there are quite a few Mail readers out there, or so I’m told!

    As for the defence that Rothermore’s proprietorship and support for European fascism was 80 years ago and the current newspaper can’t be held responsible or accountable for past sins, I accept that argument in part, but wouldn’t you still be a little suspect of a publication with a history that included the exhibition of such a significant and appalling lack of judgement at one of the most epoch changing and pivotal junctures in European history?

  42. CROSSBAT11

    @”It does make you wonder who does buy and read the wretched rag, though, doesn’t it?”

    Well my wife for one-she loves it.

    It’s a womens’ paper these days-pages of stuff for them.

    Like you Crossbat, I don’t understand the Pontius Pilate tendency amongst some Conservatives with regard to DM.

    I don’t have a problem reading it-if I skip the large chunk of Femail/Medical stuff . It is no better & no worse than many other papers one can think of-and a lot better than some I would mention.

    I would probably admit to a degree of intellectual snobbery about DM as I read my Times-but I always give it a whizz through with the second cup of breakfast Rosie.

    :-)

  43. “Eurozone finance ministers have demanded much greater oversight of Greece’s economy in return for a 130bn-euro (£110bn; $170bn) bailout package.

    In a three-hour conference call on Wednesday, the ministers scrutinised Greece’s planned budget cuts.

    The single currency bloc praised Greece’s “substantial progress”, but demanded more detail, including a full timeline for implementing the measures.

    A decision on the bailout is expected to be finalised on Monday.

    Greece faces a looming deadline in mid-March when it needs to make repayments on a 14.5bn-euro bond, or face bankruptcy.”

    BBC

    They just don’t believe that Greece can/will implement it’s Budget.

  44. Crossbat/Colin,

    My mother reads the Daily Mail. Nuff said :-)

    It tries to position itself between the broadsheets and the “comics” as a middle class tabloid. But it ends up taking itself rather too seriously without even delivering decent news coverage and editorial…….

    Anyway, do you think we assume that all the red roses on here read the Daily Mirror……….? :-)

  45. The Daily Telegraph is the true morning preserve of the conservative gentleman. At a push the times.

    The Mail, like the guardian is just too politically biased and badly written.

  46. @ SoCalLiberal

    Firstly apologies for previous post. Seems to have been sent whilst just starting to edit:

    Post should have read:

    “The Washington County thing is a bit more complicated.”

    Just to add a few facts to your statement. The highest turnout in the whole of all Washington County GOP caucuses is 120. In 2008, only 113 turned out, of which ‘Paul’ got precisely 8 votes. Alan Madore from the ‘Paul’ Campaign Team, whose claims about Washington County votes being disallowed because Washington County was a Pro-Paul county has since unreservedly retracted his outburst. He now admits he had been misinformed of the 2008 Washington County results.

    It is interesting that some towns (not in Washington County) are actually holding their caucuses this weekend. So yes it is quite possible for a significant number of towns to have recorded 0 votes at the time of the end of the Polling. Since the late polling was the decision of the local precincts themselves, I do not see why any of these votes, not polled until well after the close of polling, should count as valid votes.

  47. @Hannah – “… periodically popped up to stab the Labour Party in the back”

    I’m tempted the quote Bill Clinton’s “The anger you feel is valid, but you must not allow yourselves to be consumed by it…”

    Slightly on a tangent – but worth bearing in mind for historians of the Labour party:

    “Times journalist of the period, Home Affairs editor Peter Evans, tells us in his recent memoir that at least one senior Times executive was involved in the discuss­ions in 1968 which centred round a regime headed by Lord Mountbatten.

    And the newspaper added to the paranoia of the period between the two general elect­ions in 1974 by running articles discussing the conditions under which a military coup in Britain would be legitimate.”

  48. @Billy Bob

    “Times journalist of the period, Home Affairs editor Peter Evans, tells us in his recent memoir that at least one senior Times executive was involved in the discuss­ions in 1968 which centred round a regime headed by Lord Mountbatten.”

    I expect Hughie Greene was involved too. I saw a recent profile of his glittering career on TV recently and it included a focus on his rather paranoid right-wing political views. Apparently, rather like the Times Executive you mention, he was convinced Wilson was at the head of a KGB inspired plot to turn Britain into a communist satellite state of the Soviet Union. Quite comically, Greene once hijacked the end of one of his “Opportunity Knocks” shows to deliver a rallying cry to the nation! Maybe all those trips he did as an allied pilot to break the Berlin Blockade went to his head somewhat.

    As for 1974, wasn’t Lord Lucan involved in some lunatic right wing group who were planning a military coup to rescue us from a communist takeover by Wilson (that man again!) in collusion with the NUM Executive?

    Back to the late 60s and the Times paranoia. I wonder if those two old bulwarks of the establishment, William Rees-Mogg and Peregrine Worsthorne, were involved in the mooted coup d’etat?

  49. I vaguely remember rumours of MI5 involvement in Wison’s resignation. Didn’t the Queen visit him to say goodbye too, rather unusually?

  50. @ SoCaL

    I didn’t know that a Scot had invented penicilin. I did know that a Scot had invented the DVR.
    ——————————-
    Scots invented just about everything. ;-)

    Golf, ice-hockey, curling.
    Steam power.
    Penicillin, anesthetic & a host of other medical advances.
    Shelock Holmes.
    And economics; I believe that was us. :-(

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