There is a new YouGov/Evening Standard poll of voting intentions in London. First round intentions with changes from a month ago stand at JOHNSON 46%(+2), LIVINGSTONE 45%(-1), PADDICK 6%(-1), Others 3%. On a forced choice between Ken and Boris, Boris leads by 51% to 49%, a reverse of last month’s figures.

While technically Boris has retaken the lead from Ken, all the changes are within the margin of error and the two main candidates are essentially neck-and-neck.

Most of the other questions in the poll showed little movement from a month ago, though there was a good reception for Ken’s policy of cutting fares by 7%. Improving transport was, along with crime, seen as the most important issue facing the capital and 68% said they supported Ken’s policy. What probably limits its cut through is that people were far more divided over whether it was actually deliverable – 44% thought Ken would actually do it, 40% thought he wouldn’t.

Westminster voting intentions in London are CON 35%(+1), LAB 47%(-2), LDEM 9%(+1). This represents a slight drop in Labour’s lead in London, but they are still doing slightly better in London than elsewhere in the country; these figures represent a 5 point swing to Labour, compared to an average of a 4 point swing in Great Britain as a whole.

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109 Responses to “YouGov/Evening Standard has Boris just ahead”

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  1. Colin,

    You’re welcome…….although a bit ‘stodgy’ to read it’s interesting nonetheless!

  2. tingedfringe

    I also suspect that Baroness Warsi’s attack on secular life could backfire […]

    It’ll also send out an interesting message to the ‘Islamic world’, that they shouldn’t embrace secularism but should embrace their ‘religious heritages’.

    Well if we don’t keep up the supply of scary ‘radical Islamic preachers’ with scary beards, how else will we keep on scaring the punters into supporting enormous bureaucracies to restrict their liberties?

    What all this is, of course, is yet another case of mindlessly copying what (they think) plays well in the US.[1] We’ve had decades of borrowing from mythical America, with little success because not everything travels and the UK’s leaders usual fail to understand the subtleties of US systems. I don’t think even many core voters will be impressed by an attack on ‘secularism’.

    And as far as dog-whistles go, while Baroness Warsi and the Pope commiserate with each other on how they are the lowly and oppressed of the Earth, the target audience will probably see a terrorist chumming up with the head of Paedos ‘R’ Us. As messages go this may not be successful.

    Alastair Campbell wisely said “We don’t do God” and it’s a lesson all British politicians would do well to learn. Even (especially?) the truly religious are not impressed by ostentatious piety, particularly if it is just code for “we want our way in everything”.

    [1] Another example is the glorious mess that the election of police commissioners (and more mayors) is about to become. I foresee a good year of amusement.

  3. Anthony-is there a convenient place to enable tracking of candidates for Mayoral & Police Comm. elections; and the by-elections which might result?

  4. Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) figures for the last 60 polls (11/11/11 – 31/02/12):

    Con 38.3%
    Lab 40.1%
    Lib 9.2%
    UKIP 4.9%
    Green 2.0%
    Other 5.3%

    Con 40.8%
    Lab 39.9%
    Lib 8.8%
    UKIP 3.9%
    Green 2.7%
    Other 1.8%

    Rest of South
    Con 49.3%
    Lab 28.8%
    Lib 12.2%
    UKIP 6.0%
    Green 2.3%
    Other 2.0%

    Mid & Wales
    Con 37.6%
    Lab 42.6%
    Lib 7.9%
    UKIP 4.8%
    Green 1.8%
    Other 4.2%

    Con 30.0%
    Lab 53.1%
    Lib 7.8%
    UKIP 4.9%
    Green 1.7%
    Other 2.1%

    Con 19.8%
    Lab 37.3%
    Lib 5.9%
    SNP 31.2%
    UKIP 1.1%
    Green 1.7%
    Other 1.0%

    There’s still 21 polls until the pre-veto period is past, so still expect a rise in Con VI, then it should drop again.

  5. Colin – I was thinking a similar thing. I’ll try to get something up soonish

  6. Anthony-thanks-that would be great.

  7. Hooded

    “Commentary from Moodys attached for those who can be bothered……”

    That rules out about 95% of the voting population then!

    More likely to observe/ hear the headline (“UK on ratings watch”) and compare that to George, Dave and Nick in 2010 asserting that austerity saved us from, er, a ratings watch and/ or a downgrade :-)

  8. Rob,

    “That rules out about 95% of the voting population then!!”

    I was referring it for the UKPR fraternity, but had only marginally higher hopes for the % that would read it ….. :-)

  9. @Rob S

    Commentary from the report is likely to summarised and reported by political correspondents on televised news, and simarly is also likely to reported on online and newspaper sources as well – so I doubt the public will have to go searching for it………

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