Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10% – full tabs here. This certainly suggests that the five point Labour lead yesterday was indeed an outlier, and that the underlying picture remains the same old neck-and-neck position between Labour and Conservatives.


372 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 40%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%”

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  1. @OldNat, @SoCalLib

    No. They were artificial live tourists

    End Of Line, Martyn

  2. @ Chris Lane

    “In addition, of course, are the effects of alcohol and other drugs, and also of course family splits. The ‘liberal’ society has encouraged this bad behaviour of course.”

    May I ask how? I know that Conservative and Liberal don’t always mean the same thing on both sides of the pond but I’m kinda confused here as to how a liberal society encourages drug usage, bad parenting, and kids going hungry.

    I don’t know about British Liberals, I can’t speak for them, but most liberals I know don’t use drugs and discourage drug usage. liberals believe in protecting and defending constitutional rights, liberals believe in treating drug offenders rather than locking them up, and most liberals also believe in legalizing certain drugs that are shown not to be harmful to the general population. Liberals believe in ending the “War on Drugs” because it encourages drug usage and empowers street gangs and helps Mexican drug carteles and increases violence and wastes massive amounts of our tax dollars. That doesn’t mean that we believe in rampant drug usage or broken families.

    Actually, I think that there’s more divergence between American Conservatives and British Conservatives just looking at CPAC this weekend. They invited a white supremacist to be a keynote speaker. Rick Santorum, who was a speaker (and who all others are imitating), wants to define life as starting at immediate conception (the so called “personhood” amendments), wants to ban the usage of all contraception, wants to bring back Don’t Ask Don’t Tell (he refused to stand up for a U.S. military serviceman and Iraq War veteran booed by his own audience), and believes kids who are sick should go without healthcare if they can’t afford medication. Of course Santorum, who’s already expressed his belief that a father in prison is a better father than a gay father on the campaign trail, also believes that women are “too emotional” to serve in any kind of combat role in the military. This all gets wild, thunderous applause.

    Meanwhile, in states where Republicans have control, they have enacted the following sorts of laws:

    1. Taking away all collective bargaining rights for union employees.
    2. Requiring people to have a photo ID before they may vote.
    3. Requiring all women to have a sonogram before they have an abortion.
    4. Allowing police to stop anyone they believe to be an undocumented immigrant and ask them for their immigration papers.
    5. Removing local government in predominantly black cities and installing unelected city managers who may run the city however they please without input from the citizens who live there.
    6. Requiring all welfare recipients to get drug tested at their own expense before they can receive welfare benefits. This is not only completely unconstitutional, it’s not only humiliating and degrading to welfare recipients (I think this is even worse than means testing, which you and I both oppose), it’s actually costing the state a great deal of money to do this.
    7. Making it more difficult to vote.

    (These are just some highlights, there are more).

    These are all things that are cheered on by American Conservatives and represent what American Conservatism is.

    I think that if any Tory MPs came to David Cameron with any of these sorts of ideas, Cameron might kick them out of the party.

  3. @ Old Nat

    I guess my sentence is kinda confusing. Some tourists, who didn’t know better, used to go to Hollywood. Most tourists were warned by locals (people they stay with, people they know, kind hotel concierges) to not go there because there wasn’t anything to actually do there (not much anyway) and the neighborhood had a high level of crime.

    One sad thing for tourists was that Hollywood refers to two different things. It refers to the neighborhood of Hollywood and it refers to the entertainment industry. The entertainment industry had long left Hollywood the neighborhood for which it is named (except for Paramount). So those tourists who went hoping to catch a glimpse of some movie star or see a studio were deeply disappointed to find well…crack houses, massage parlors (whore houses), and lots of prostitutes.

    But there was a massive government investment to redevelop the area. This includes the billions spent to complete the Red Line, sinkholes and all. Today if you go to Hollywood (and I know Crossbat has been), there are any number of things to go to and see. There has been tremendous development and new job growth. The area is now safer too. It’s someplace you want to take tourists too.

  4. @ Old Nat and Martyn

    On an unrelated note entirely, do you guys find this at all disturbing?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lisa-belkin/father-shoots-laptop_b_1267850.html

    Maybe your lack of parental rights is a good thing.

  5. CHRISLANE 1945

    Thanks.

    I did Google for some examples……..and found this BBC report:-

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13765820

    If Mrs. Ruegg is BBC’s choice of a typical case-then I have some questions.

    Why have seven children if both parents need two jobs to support them? There was always the risk of less income wasn’t there? Is this unexpected hard times-or irresponsible family building?

    By my calculation this group of children attracts a maximum of £24,600 pa in Child Benefit & Child Tax Credit -depending on the ages of the children & the total income of the family.-How can any of these children be short of food?

    Of course , BBC may have chosen an atypical example.

    Inflation on food & utility costs has impacted badly-particularly for low income groups & pensioners.
    Families of all sorts are having to make difficult priority choices.

    But the State provides funds to families , specifically for
    the support of children.

  6. @ Martyn

    That sounds like a fun place….well until the robots began killing people inexplainably. I think that show must have been the inspiration for an episode of the Simpsons (where they visit Itchy and Scratchy Land). It’s amazing how much pop culture that Baby Boomers and Gen Xers value would be completely unknown to Millenials if not for Simpsons parodies.

  7. @SoCalLiberal

    “2. Requiring people to have a photo ID before they may vote.
    4. Allowing police to stop anyone they believe to be an undocumented immigrant and asking them for their immigration papers.”

    I fail to see what is ‘wrong’ or ‘objectionable’ about either of these two.

    Strangely here in Cyprus it is compulsory to carry an ID card or passport at all times. Also the police have the right to ask for such ID and proof of work permit from anyone whom they have reason to believe is working illegally. But then Cyprus of course has that well known ”right wing” govt and President known as the Communist Party.

  8. SoCalLiberal

    The inability of fathers (especially) to cope with their adolescent daughters (especially) is legendary.

    I spent much of my career advising parents not to overreact when their children went through that essential period of rejecting their parents’ externally imposed values, before they internalised them as their own, and started lecturing their parents about how they should adopt the values that their parents taught them in the first place. (That’s the point when wise parents nod, and say that’s a good point while secretly punching the air, and saying “Yes, we won!”)

    How did I cope with my own daughter’s adolescence? – Badly! :-)

  9. FoI revelation about Mr Balls’ “management” of Primary School places is interesting.

    The history of Ballsian vision & foresight grows ever more staggering.

    …and talking of vision & foresight-I do hope GO is going to correct the WTC change on minimum hours for families-it looks like a disaster waiting to happen.

  10. @SoCalLib

    I know. It’s all fun and games until the robots start killing the humans… :-)

    Any hoo, I just saw that “Facebook Parenting: For the troubled teen” and…well, I don’t know what to say. I take your point that the Boomers/GenXs/Millenials, lacking a common set of concepts, have difficulty communicating with each other. But I think that specific instance was just a man losing it whilst carrying a gun. Disturbing, yes, but not informative.

    Regards, Martyn

  11. ST YG Lab 45%, Tory 36%, LD 7%

  12. I see the briefing from within the Tory party against Tim Montgomerie is now gathering a rather vicious pace. Predictably, he is paying the price for having the temerity to reveal that three Cabinet Ministers had grave misgivings about Lansley’s Health reforms. Here’s what a “government source” had to say about him, referring to Montgomerie’s links to Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary and former leader of the Tory party:-

    “Tim’s sole achievement in politics was to be chief of staff to the most unpopular leader in Conservative history, so forgive us if we don’t take any lessons from him. He clearly wants to take the party back to the bad old days of constant infighting and no policy.”

    Montgomerie may have learned, rather painfully, that it’s not a good idea to rock the boat and I wonder how long it will be before that famous Steve Hilton arm is draped around his shoulders and he is taken for that dreaded walk into the long grass!!

  13. r huckle

    What poll is that? or is it a prediction?

  14. @R Huckle

    “ST YG Lab 45%, Tory 36%, LD 7%”

    You are joking, I presume??

  15. Yes sorry it was a prediction, but somehow it saved whilst I was in the middle of typing.

  16. For what it’s worth, I think we have probably pretty much settled on a small Labour lead of somewhere in the region of 1-2%. I guess only time will tell.

  17. @R Huckle

    I bet Anthony’s relieved because if we get a YouGov tonight with a 9% Labour lead it might suggest that the methodology is up the creek and in need of a pretty radical review!!

    It wouldn’t surprise me if tonight’s poll is neck and neck. With one or two exceptions, the weekend samples tend to be more favourable to the Conservatives. They led by 5% last weekend.

  18. CROSSBAT11

    “It wouldn’t surprise me if tonight’s poll is neck and neck.”

    I am never surprised to see Lab & Con necking! Some may find it distasteful, but I’ve always recognised that they share the love that dare not say its name – Unionism. :-)

  19. COLIN.,
    Well, I did not see the BBC programme.

    All I can report is what I know. In Boscombe/Bournemouth there are many families where there is hunger for the children.

    £1400 a month, net, is not enough to feed, clothe and heat the house or flat, pay for transport to work- for a family of two or three children.

    So Private Charities are helping here.

    SOCALLIBERAL.
    The Republicans do not sound nice!

    By ‘liberal’ I refer to the 1960’s and 1970’s revolution which encouraged parents and spouses to walk away, split the capital accrued etc

  20. @ Chris Lane

    By ‘liberal’ I refer to the 1960?s and 1970?s revolution which encouraged parents and spouses to walk away, split the capital accrued etc

    ——————————–

    I’m sorry Chris but I think you are talking tripe.

    I think I’m 3 years older than you, I was born in 1952, and a lapsed Catholic to boot.

    I don’t see my friends and contempories walking away, splitting the capital accrued etc.

    I guess the 60’s were an interesting and memorable decade to be a teenager. My friends and I had a good time, despite adolescent angst. Did you?

  21. @Chrislane1945

    “By ‘liberal’ I refer to the 1960?s and 1970?s revolution which encouraged parents and spouses to walk away, split the capital accrued etc”

    No it didn’t. It made it easier for people to get out of bad marriages, or not be married in the first place if they wished, or be gay and have children or any other of those nice things we can do today, with much greater freedom from religious zealots and those who wish to impose their fairy tale politics and sexual prejudices on us.

    While for sound economic and social reasons it seems generally accepted that a stable, loving, two parent family (same sex or m/f, it doesn’t seem to matter according to the research) is the best option for children, there is equally very compelling evidence that keeping a poor relationship together is much worse for children than permitting a quick and easy separation.

  22. CHRISLANE 1945

    It wasn’t a BBC “programme”.

    It was a BBC news report………..ermm I provided you with the link in my post !

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