I normally give myself a day off on Fridays, since there isn’t normally much in the way of polling, but I’ve just noticed a YouGov Welsh poll from last night. Topline voting intention figures for Westminster and the Welsh assembly are as below.

Westminster Voting intention: CON 25%, LAB 50%, LDEM 6%, PC 11%, Others 9%
Assembly consituency vote: CON 20%, LAB 49%, LDEM 7%, PC 17%, Others 7%
Assembly regional vote: CON 20%, LAB 45%, LDEM 7%, PC 15%, Others 13%


82 Responses to “Latest YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. chouenlai @ ALEC

    “Whilst you and I do not see eye to eye politically, once again your post contains a major paragraph that hits the nail on the bonce. The hobnobbing in the recent past, with anybody who has a few billion, precludes all this “what about the workers” mularky now.”

    I can agree with all that. What is less clear is what Labour can do about it.

    If they move slightly to the left, the press following the atacks on Obama, will depict them as somewhat to the left of Stalin, and NewLabour will say they are turning their back on the blessed Tony, the only success for the left since Queen Victoria was a baby both of which are questionable.

    What can they do, even if millionaires and their friends withdraw from the front line?

    Conservatives used to have talented people from a moneyed or aristocratic background motivated by a sense of duty to serve the country. The Liberals had the academics and Labour the promising young working class boy educated with trade union support.

    Now we have the same sort of people from media PR and think tanks on both sides and evangelists for the church of Adam Smith on the right. Where are the people of vision?

    Original thought is not welcomed, or even fairly heard. Frank Field and IDS are examples.

  2. BERIOUS

    @”We can sit back and see if they’re a disaster as nurses and doctors loudly predict or the saviour of the NHS as Lansley insists.”

    Presumably whilst pondering how you stop 20% of children entering secondary school being functionally illiterate.

    Certainly, if the complaints being made by employers have validity, then an independent Wales will need a mass immigration programe to provide it’s workforce.

  3. VALLEYBOY

    Hi & welcome.

    Did you, by any chance, frequent BirdForum some years ago? :-)

  4. @John B Dick – “What is less clear is what Labour can do about it.”

    Labour has a relatively easy path through this compared to the Tories or the Lib Dems. Frankly, if you get on the right side of the zeitgeist, the public care little about what you used to do.

    I actually think Milliband’s positioning at this stage is very astute, with his acceptance of blame in some areas a painful but required process.

    I know some have criticised this culpability strategy as handing the field to the Tories in the field of deficit reduction and spending, and up to a point it has, but I don’t think there was realistically any other option. Trying to present a case, valid in many ways, that overspending wasn’t a problem, just wasn’t going to fit in with the current voter mindset. In two or three years time, we might be looking at a different story, but not just yet.

    Labour are inching their way towards a coherent philosophy, drawing tentative connections between the squeezed middle, bankers bonuses, responsible capitalism, press barons and the sacrifice of ordinary people.

    But so far these are like Elgar’s Enigma Variations – a series of pleasing sounding variations around an as yet hidden theme. Elgar died without telling anyone what the hidden central theme actually was – Milliband and Labour’s job is to keep playing the variations but make sure they eventually tie all of this to a central and understandable theme.

  5. @PHILL
    The Rugby Evangelism has made things difficult for all of us. First they taught the French whilst buying pit props in the south west of France, then they taught the Puma’s when settling Patagonia. Its bad enough having the Southern Hemisphere teams without the Welsh passion selling the game all over the place. Thank God there were not to many Welsh Regiments in the British Army of the Rhine in 1918 to1923. Having a German national RU side, doubtless called the Panzer’s, would just about sow the “7” nations up year after year.

  6. JOHN B DICK.
    I very much agree with you about the political class.

    CHOU.
    There were very many welsh and irish soldiers on the western front in both wars. Shame on you sir.

    And as the Six Nations start again, let us pray, oremus, for the welsh, the irish and the scots.

    Send them homeward to think again.

    By the way: THE QUEEN is now played in Ireland. The SOLDIERS SONG is still never played. ‘Soldiers are we.. etc

  7. @Alec

    What is it about the Milibands that attracts unquestioning distortive narratives I wonder?

    “… we don’t need a summer of introspection. The starting point is not debating personalities but winning the argument about our record”

    That from the famous 2008 Guardian article which was pounced upon by the media as a “coded” challenge to Brown – then when he denied that was the purpose – he was called a coward. According to your Telegraph peice we don’t need Bletchly park to decode it for us… it is a good job they didn’t make a habit of insinuating messages that were not there. In fact it reads like as a straightforward defense of Labour and an attack on the Tories.

    Funnily enough, Labour constituencies accross the country did not put Gordon Brown front and centre of their electioneering, but that is beside the point. Labour traditionally does not depose its leaders in the way that some thought David Miliband should.

    The media was all over the Blair/Brown split as the only way to report politics… and without Blair they had to find a proxy – even though the lazy journalistic shorthand did not fit.

    Rawnsley – probably more than anyone reponsible for imprinting the Blair/Brown split prism didn’t see Miliband that way:

    “But he once told an intimate that the Third Way was ‘wanky’. He is on the Left of the New Labour spectrum. He is a believer – in a way that Blair is not entirely – in Continental social democracy.”

    David Miliband main criticism of Blairism was the lack of intellectual rigour. Seems like the journalists have found an easy way to discount any contribution he might make.

  8. Strangely quiet on UKPR tonight. Am I the only UKPRite who doesn’t have a social life?

    Just in case this thread isn’t getting much love because of its Welshness, can I just say that I am looking forward to a canal boat holiday in environs of Llangollen next week.

    Cymru am byth!

  9. Neil A
    How can they have canals up and down mountains?

    Oh, and I was going out tonight but called it off because of the snow. So I’m not really a sad git.

  10. ChrisLane1945

    I guess that praying malarkey didn’t help. What a pity.

    Normally, I’d have congratulated the scots on a good game but for all the anti English partisans out there I’d rather rub your noses in it!

  11. PeteB

    If I remember rightly, they have a bloody great aquaduct and numerous tunnels there, been many years since I went on a canal boat holiday as a kid in that area, but I suspect its the same canal.

    Neil A

    Enjoy the holiday, watch out for gangs of big hairy men scaring people with their close harmony singing!

  12. ALAN,
    Scots were awful, and
    NEIL A.

    Even I am off out now

  13. If Alec Salmond can confirm that Scottish independence (or DevoMax) includes Scotland withdrawing from the Six Nations, then he gets my vote. After another abject performance today, I don’t think I can take it anymore ????

    (captcha was F8ck, which seems vaguely appropriate)

  14. leftylampton

    Allan Christie

    Almost half the voters in Wales voting Labour?? It must be this damn vote Labour mentality coz ma Maw Paw and the dug voted for em soz ah better vote for em too.
    Monkeys in red rosettes springs to mind.”

    I’ll be kind and put that one down as a Friday-night comment if you catch my drift.

    If it isn’t, it combines the worst kind of intolerance of the plebs’ voting habits, with blind ignorance of the fact that Crossbat set out a few posts up
    ____________________

    Yes I withdraw my comment and it was rather silly. :(

  15. No Scottish cross break in this poll? ;)

  16. @Chrislane1945 – “Scots were awful…”

    Incorrect. The English were awful, but the Scots were worse.

    Still, Scotland are runaway early leaders in the RBS 6 Nations Competition to Find 50 Ways to Not Score a Try.

    Some astonishing brilliant attempts tonight. I’m gutted.

  17. Allan C

    No worries. Had me own knuckles rapped today – there’s none of us perfect. A couple who are never wrong, but none of us perfect.

  18. Neil A – you are not the only saddo but I havew nothing to contribute.
    Waitinmg for Borgen fix.
    Chris L – had a look on ecf site and no Chris Lane with a rating, am I using wrong name?

  19. Chris BTW – Rachael Reeves and the Eagle sisters were apparently very good chess players when younger

  20. @ John B Dick

    “If they move slightly to the left, the press following the atacks on Obama, will depict them as somewhat to the left of Stalin”

    See I’m not sure that sort of thing will work and may even backfire. The psychotic attacks by the right wing media against Obama don’t work with Americans. They continue in an echo chamber because most Americans ignore it. I think Brits would find those sorts of attacks to be offensive and respond angrily against those with that kind of message.

    “Conservatives used to have talented people from a moneyed or aristocratic background motivated by a sense of duty to serve the country. The Liberals had the academics and Labour the promising young working class boy educated with trade union support.”

    Are you sure you’re not just romanticizing the good ole’ days?

  21. Jim Jam,

    Read yesterday that Borgen cast have just started reading scripts for series 3. And series 2 is meant to surpass series 1. So tonight’s ‘denouement’ is not to be mourned….. :-)

  22. @Neil A

    You said “…Strangely quiet on UKPR tonight. Am I the only UKPRite who doesn’t have a social life?…”

    Although I doubt Russell Brand would feel threatened by my social life, I am in fact working tonight. Anyhoo, shouldn’t you be out catching crims and being interviewed about it?… :-) :-)

    @Pete B

    You said “…How can they have canals up and down mountains?…”

    There’s these things called “locks” and “aqueducts”… :-)

    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Canals_of_the_United_Kingdom
    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_canal_aqueducts_in_the_United_Kingdom
    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_canal_locks_in_the_United_Kingdom

    Regards, Martyn

  23. Evening all.

    YouGov prediction:

    Con: 38

    Lab: 40

    LD: between 8 and 14

  24. “But today’s figures are very close to the poll we published the day before the Assembly election. Once we adjust for differential turnout –the difficulty Labour has in mobilising its full strength across Wales- there has been very little change since May 2011.”

    From the previous comments on this thread I take it that everyone has decided to ignore the above warning given in the poll itself on the interpretation of the findings of that poll.

    With regard to the Westminster figures from the GE2010 results it is obvious that there is a huge difference in turnout between the Lab stronghold seats and those seats where there is something for the other parties. When opinion polls are taken Wales-wide, then there may be a significant difference in what counted as Lab supporters and their normal Lab support turnout %. This will indicate an increased VI for Lab may be very much due to its stronghold areas, which may not actually turn out and if it did would probably be in seats that are already Lab certs. In other words are ‘ineffective’ in being able to convert extra votes into seat gains.

    I noted one comment “that on these figures and the new constituencies that LD would end up with no Welsh MPs”.

    Clearly a look at the figures for the new Ceredigon constituency show how such a event is extremely unlikely:
    LD have an 18.5% maj over PC, an even bigger 24.7% maj over Con and a huge 39.9% maj over Lab. Need one say more.

  25. Well, folks… nobody seems to be tweeting a 5 point lead for the Conservatives so I think it is probably safe to say that it’s polldrums again this week. :-)

  26. @Martyn

    Also boat lifts:

    h
    ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falkirk_Wheel

    This one raises a canal boat to the height of an eight-storey building – using energy equivalent to boiling eight kettles.

  27. @ FrankG

    If the Labour upside in Wales is coming from disaffected LDs, then they will turn out. LD voters turn out & vote, regardless of how well/ badly they expect their party of choice to finish. That’s why the LD leadership is very keen to have PR; & why Labour is so very keen to convince the left-leaning LD voters that they can ‘safely’ vote for us.
    8-)

  28. @Martyn

    “There’s these things called “locks” and “aqueducts”…”

    Indeed. I often go running, walking and cycling along stretches of the Birmingham to Worcester canal as it wends it’s way through the glorious Worcestershire countryside, skirting villages like Alvechurch, Stoke Prior and Hanbury. On this canal lies the longest flight of locks in the British canal system at Tardebigge comprising 30 narrow locks on a two and a quarter mile stretch of the waterway. It raises the canal some 220 feet, and lies in between the Tardebigge tunnel (length 580 yards) to the North and the Stoke Prior flight of 6 narrow locks to the South.

    I’ve spent many a happy hour on the towpath of this wondrous canal, Van Morrison on the Ipod, boats gliding peacefully by and the rolling Worcestershire countryside, with its patchwork of lush green meadows, copses, hamlets gentle hills and dales, providing its eternally beautiful backcloth. It’s where I find my peace and solace in an often turbulent world.

  29. @Billy Bob

    Of course, if you turn it long enough and far enough, Falkirk becomes unscrewed and drops off… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  30. @Amberstar

    Some of the Lab upside in Wales may indeed be coming from disaffected LDs, but I think the largest part of the ‘upside’ is coming from Lab supporters who do not normally bother to vote in the Lab stronghold seats but are now actually showing a greater commitment to vote. There was a very large LD disillusionment that particularly showed in the huge LD DK and WNV %s. Gradually these % have reduced slightly as the LD VI has risen from its depths.

    In the seat I quoted Ceredigion new boundaries, it became an even stronger LD seat than on current boundaries. PC is its closest rival (if 18.5% deficit can be called close). I do not think that PC can make up such a lead, neither could Con ,and Lab is still even further away. Ceredigion will be a LD hold on current or new boundaries.

  31. Frank G @ ”Clearly a look at the figures for the new Ceredigon constituency show how such a event [Lib Dem wipeout] is extremely unlikely:
    LD have an 18.5% maj over PC, an even bigger 24.7% maj over Con and a huge 39.9% maj over Lab. Need one say more.”

    I live in Ceredigion and I think the Lib Dems have got something to worry about here.

    The proposed boundary changes means we would take on some more Welsh speakers [according to an analysis in the Welsh Mail] from Carmarthen which would favour Plaid.

    Also you must be unaware the Lib Dem Mark Williams only had a majority of 219 in 2005, which rose massively on the back of the vote from our two universities to over 8,000 in 2010.

    Also Ceredigion has had big shifts.

    1997 –
    Plaid 41.62% Lab 24.3% Lib Dem 16.46% Con 14.88 %

    2001
    Plaid 38.3 % Lib Dem 26.9% Con 19.4% Lab 15.4%

    2005
    Lib Dem 36.53% Plaid 35.92% Con 12.39% Lab 12,06%

    2010 – on the back of never to be repeated Cleggmania, AV referendum excitement and tuition fee lies
    Lib Dem 50% Plaid 28.3% Con 11.6% Lab 5.8%

    I know from friends and neighbours that Labour sympathisers tend to vote for other parties here now, and a lot of them did foolishly [as did the students] vote Lib Dem in 2010 and will not be doing so again.

    My feeling is, living here, that Mark Williams will be losing Ceredigion at the next election, or at very least he have his majority slasged but to three or less figures again.
    He posed as a champion of public sector jobs which Ceredigion needs to help keep its private sector afloat.

    Welsh folk [and a lot of us English incomers] don’t like the Tories, they particularly don’t like a party that came third in the General Election and then enables Tory policies.

  32. Plaid Cymru are in the midst of electing a new party leader, should a certain Leanne Wood win (which seems more likely by the day) then you will see a very different party to the one that did so poorly in the last elections!
    INDEPENDENCE is up there with some pretty alternative policies on the enviroment and jobs/economy.
    membership has increased by%24 in the last 4 months also.

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