Two new polls tonight, and both show a one point Labour lead. ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent has topline figures of CON 37%(-1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 14%(+2). Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%.

The gap between Labour and Conservative is obviously the same (and seems to be very typical of recent polls showing the two main parties pretty much neck-and-neck.) There is more contrast with the Lib Dems: YouGov normally give the party their lowest scores, the 14% from ComRes is one of their better scores of late from a non-ICM pollster.


291 Responses to “ComRes and YouGov both show 1 point Labour leads”

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  1. Colin

    I have no idea what Cameron said that Blair said at PMQs.

    Wasn’t Blair also one who set about the reorganisation of NHS England?

  2. OLDNAT

    Yes he was.

  3. COLIN
    `Let us see how Hichingbrooke Hospital performs under its new management, before being so certain that reform in the NHS is bound to create chaos`

    It is easier to look after a puppy rather than a large flock of sheep…Special care to make sure it succeeds can ofcourse make Addenbrookes a success,but caution needs to be excercised when generalising one result to a health system.

  4. Colin

    As an observer, it’s always seemed a little odd that England’s two largest parties seem obsessed with structural reorganisation of England’s domestic governance.

  5. SMUKESH

    Caution seems sensible.

    Provided it doesn’t amount to stasis.

    That is no longer a runner-no future government can guarantee to throw the wall of money at the problem which was GB’s solution to the financial black hole which is healthcare.

    Labour’s solution in opposition is to slam into reverse gear, and cut funding.

    That isn’t a runner either.

  6. OLD NAT

    I wouldn’t worry about it .

    I am sure you have other matters of more relevance to your life , to which you can devote time & thought.

  7. Colin

    Indeed. But I can’t talk about them on here.

    Like SoCalLiberal, I’m an outsider trying to understand a different system.

  8. COLIN
    `Labour’s solution in opposition is to slam into reverse gear, and cut funding.
    That isn’t a runner either`

    I don`t agree…The private sector will increase efficiency no doubt but will cream off the profits…The increased competition would drive some hospitals into the ground…When local hospitals close,pensioners would be the first to suffer.

    This and other risks are why senior observers have come out against the reforms…As they stand,they will create a two-tier system…98% OF GP`s are opposed…Why the hell would they when it puts power in their hands?Precisely because of the risks involved and worries of creating an American duplicate where healthcare to some is non-existent

    Labour offered to work with Lansley to create GP commisioning (which is the bit I like) but not the rest,but he refused…Ofcourse the NHS reforms may be a resounding success but if they aren`t,a lot of people will pay a big price.

  9. Billy Bob

    You may well be right – however the theory is about lost voters + new cohort = maintainence of support.

    On current polling evidence Con/Lab have both lost a (small) section of their 2010 vote, nevertheless VI is up.

    As I pointed out earlier with regard to the Conservatives, you can lose votes and still have your VI go up providing everyone else (in total) loses even more. In this case everyone (Lab, Con, SNP, UKIP, Greens) are all getting a boost from the collapse on Lib Dem vote as well as direct transfers from them (especially Labour).

    With regard to the ‘new cohort’ theory this is true of all Parties to some extent and was probably a bit more so for the Lib Dems who always picked up more than the others from non-voters. However in recent times I doubt it was near half. There just aren’t that many (political) virgins around.

  10. Colin,

    Found this today. Just wish more heed had been paid at the time….. :-)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv96quQN2Js&feature=related

  11. SMUKESH

    Let’s wait & see.

    I was reading today about the German hospital system-a third run by private sector, a third by the third sector & a third by the state.

  12. COLIN
    `Let’s wait & see`

    Sure…I hope they are a success

  13. HOODED

    Thanks :-)

  14. Crossbat

    “Mess with the NHS at your peril and I’m amazed that Cameron, normally an astute reader of the public mood, has got himself into this cul-de-sac. His political radar and antennae has gone missing on this one”.

    A lot of people work in the NHS. I spoke to 15 of them to-day.

    If you have problems at work, what do you do? You girn about it to your nearest and dearest.That’s a lot of people. Then there are patients currently getting recurring treatment of some sort and their families.
    Altogether that’s a very large proportion of the population.

    I have always valued the NHS because I remember being ill before it came into existence. I spent the main part of my career in NHS finance.

    Today I saw it at its best.

    I spent the day on14 separate measurements, tests or giving samples At least 15 staff were involved face-to- face, many more in laboratories. I am due a triple or quadruple bypass on Sunday and have already had an angiogram and an MRI scan and am due to get another.

    The cost of the equipment used on me will be of the order of £4m and the charge to the patient and insurer in America would be of the order of £100,000, half that in Canada.

    I can collect my travel costs.

    The hospital that I was in has a catchment population of around two million with the worst incidence of cardiac disease in Europe. The impression that the staff believe that they provide the best possible quality of service is almost palpable from the moment you enter the department.

    It is very unlikely that they could be mistaken.

    My GP and a cardiologist in a local hospital only an hour away by sea and rail are also looking after me.

    At least two people in the orchestra I play in have had the same operation, one had the same surgeon. He said “You’ve landed on your feet” and enthused about everything including the view of the river from the window.

    The Scottish NHS gets about 18% more money per capita. The money is there for historical reasons, because people WILLINGLY funded pre-1948 charitable and local government medical services at a higher rate.

    When I came home I read a medical blog about the NHS in England.

    I was going to vote for independence anyway.

  15. John B Dick

    Best wishes for Sunday. Under the circumstances, Anthony will no doubt forgive you for your final sentence. :-)

  16. @Colin Smukesh

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-16711134

    After “carrying out a consultation exercise with relevant members of staff” Serco the private health care company that provides out-of-hours coverage for the Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Primary Care Trust have made the decision to Improve Patient Care, by reducing their nursing staff by 40% and requiring the remaining staff to reapply for their positions.

  17. @Roger Mexico – “There just aren’t that many (political) virgins around.”

    I was thinking more of jades – disenchanted with Thatcher or Foot, Major or Kinnock, Blair and Iraq etc, who after one electoral cycle become disillusioned with LD and return to the fray of two party politics… only to be replaced with a fresh wave of the newly disillusioned.

    It wouldn’t take more than a movement of two or three percent each from Con/Lab/Others/DKs/WNVs to keep this dynamic going.

  18. BILLY BOB

    Under such circumstances, one might anticipate some turning to another party – where one is available. Have there been any Welsh polls recently?

  19. JAYBLANC
    `After “carrying out a consultation exercise with relevant members of staff” Serco the private health care company that provides out-of-hours coverage for the Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Primary Care Trust have made the decision to Improve Patient Care, by reducing their nursing staff by 40% and requiring the remaining staff to reapply for their positions`

    Predators will come in and reduce the staff and service and term it as an efficiency drive inorder to increase profits…In some cases,the staff reduction may be justified but in others shareholder dividends will trump patient safety issues…And senior medical professionals are not unreasonable people…Their wholescale opposition to the plans indicate they fear this occuring on a larger scale.

  20. Latest YouGov/Sun results 1st Feb CON 38%, LAB 40%, LD 8%; APP -22

  21. Another ”more of the same” poll.

  22. Latest YouGov/Sun results 1st Feb CON 38%, LAB 40%, LD 8%; APP -22

    “More of the same poll”

    Indeed- a small Labour lead

  23. Ahem. Serco have provided out of hours GP services in Cornwall ever since they were given the contract by the extreme right-wing, anti-public service, money-grubbing, patient-hating government.

    In 2006.

  24. A wonderful beach scene here.

    Cold and starry night.

    The Lib Dems on 8%?

    Am I right in thinking that they voted for the cuts in support for people and especially children with disabilities? How can they?

  25. chrislane1945

    Say what you like about EdM (and you will), anybody remotely progressive in their views will have to vote Labour next time.

    The rest are just beyond the pale.

  26. NEIL A

    But surely England did have an “extreme right-wing, anti-public service, money-grubbing, patient-hating government” in 2006 – just as they have in 2012.

  27. @Old Nat – “… one might anticipate some turning to another party”

    Why not? LDs do seem to be presenting pollsters with particular problems around recall, and reliability of turnout atm… and that is just with the people who participate in surveys.

    For all the attention to focus groups… it is likely just as many will be turned on or off by just one policy stance.

  28. @ Chris Lane1945

    Bournemouth, isn’t that the UK retirement home for the stars. I think Max Bygraves lived there, until he realised that it was much warmer in Queensland Australia.

    The Lib Dems appear to be backing 99% of policies that come from their Tory colleagues. I am not sure that many LD supporters on the left of their party will be happy. This is probably why they are down to 8%. This represents the percentage that will stick by them whatever they do.

  29. Tonights (Wednesday) cross breaks:

    London – Labour ahead 2%
    Midland/Wales – Labour ahead 11%
    North – Labour ahead 16%
    Scotland – Labour ahead 27%
    South – Conservative ahead 23%

    Gives Labour a minuscule 2% lead….another mind boggler :-)

  30. nickp

    “anybody remotely progressive in their views will have to vote Labour next time.”

    An interesting point of view, but one that I profoundly disagree with.

  31. Nick P,

    “Say what you like about EdM (and you will), anybody remotely progressive in their views will have to vote Labour next time.

    The rest are just beyond the pale.”

    I can only assume by the red background that your post is not ironic.?…

    In which case it is the funniest post I have seen here in months !

  32. NickP

    “Say what you like about EdM (and you will), anybody remotely progressive in their views will have to vote Labour next time.”

    Apart from the “principled far left” (who’d rather be pure and in opposition as the country sinks back into the 19th century) that group will be voting Labour whether we have EdM or a more charismatic and more centrist leader.

    Labour needs to win over peole who aren’t ‘naturally centre leftists’ if we are to win the next election. That could be EdM by late 2013- but if it is not then he should take himself off the stage.

    I and many others learned this centrist lesson 29 years ago: unfortunately it took a further decade and two more defeats (making FOUR in a row) for many others to learn.

    A main observation of mine over the last 6 months is that we have a significant bunch of people calling themselves Labour at the moment who never learned that lesson (perhaps they are 30 and under)/ or have forgotten it/ or are in denial that it is as relevant today as it was then.

  33. Interesting article on BBC News website describing a family that would have their benefits cut under the cap proposal.

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16812185

    I started reading it with a mildly sympathetic view, which gradually evaporated. Then, when I got the breakdown of expenditure I almost choked on my redbush…

    The Tories could virtually make an election leaflet out of it.

  34. NICK P.
    fides intrepida to you, and yes the others are beyond the pale, not of Dublin, but of decency.

    ROB HUCKLE.
    Yes. Harry lives here as well, as does Bob Wilson. Mary Wilson and Norma Major went to the local small URC school here.
    Tobia Ellwood is a young tory star MP , Bournemouth East, and Bournemouth West has a Falls Road reared tory mp.

    Great beaches, a rising soccer team. Grammar Schools in Bournemouth and in Poole.

    COLIN GREEN.
    Yes, but how can Saints vincent and simon vote for those bills?

  35. Neil A

    “The Tories could virtually make an election leaflet out of it.”

    All three main UK parties are in favour of the *principle* of a welfare cap aren’t they ??

  36. @Rob S

    True, but their MOE movements, at best which suggests the two parties are level pegging. Seems to me, the trend is MOE Lab leads with the somewhat often odd Tory MOE leads. All swingabouts, and roundabouts.

  37. Boo Boo

    HHmmm- IMO looks (over last week) across the various pollsters more of a *small* trending upwards for Labour rather than moe.

  38. ROB SHEFFIELD.
    Absolutely right as usuall, on the need for ‘The Party’ to appeal to people outside the ‘natural’ Labour voter milieu. much more well put than I can write.

  39. Anyone got full numbers – my guess slight UKIP increase – will be Con at GE of course…..well most of it

  40. @Neil A

    Slinging the Sky dish would be a mercy to them, whether it is realistic to excpect the larger and fags to go is another matter.

    When the Tories start to think about structural unemployment then we can begin to have a rational debate.

  41. @Neil A

    “Interesting article on BBC News website describing a family that would have their benefits cut under the cap proposal. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16812185

    So this family gets £30,284 in benefits per year, or £25,745 plus child benefits. You’d have to earn around £30k before tax to take home that much, which I believe is more than 3/4 of the working population earns. Can you remind me why I went to university and work full time in a graduate profession to take home less than that once you’ve subtracted commuting costs?

    I agree fully that we should have a benefits system that looks after people while they’re between jobs but for goodness sake. You should not be better off on benefits than you are in work and I don’t mean just upper-quartile-paid work.

  42. @Rob S

    I don’t see that way. We’ve see Labour flick between one to two point leads, and in the last two weeks, it’s pretty much been that as far as Lab leads are concerned. There’s been no steading increase in Lab leads from 1, to 2, to 3 points but just the MOE movements, they’ve had arguably since December.

  43. Chris L

    Tobias Ellwood a star MP these days is he?

    I could tell you some tales of his debating skills as an undergraduate politico. “Limited” would be a kind adjective.

  44. @Colin,

    In fairness to the family, a large chunk of those benefits (in fact most of it) come in the form of child benefit and tax credit which a low-paid worker would also get, so it’s not quite a fair comparison.

    It was the expenditure that astonished me. They must have the top Sky package with all the movies, sports and pr0n. And my smartphone contract costs me £10 a month (well, actually £7.50 because Orange love policemen). Surely both the parents can survive on £10 contracts and give the kids PAYG phones if they need them at all.

    @Billy Bob,

    It’s probably unrealistic to expect a smackhead to give up their £100 a week brown habit too. It doesn’t mean I should have to pay for it.

    As for structural unemployment, well this man hasn’t worked since 2001 so I guess the bulk of that is at Labour’s door. Or is it OK to think about it but not actually do anything?

  45. NickP
    “Say what you like about EdM (and you will), anybody remotely progressive in their views will have to vote Labour next time.”

    It depends how you define progressive. Personally I would view what Gove is doing with schools is progressive, as is changing the benefits system (IDS). Then there is bringing the NHS decision making, closer to the patient (Lansley). Many other examples abound.

    Thinking outside the box is not what the left do. (Blair was is the exception) They limit themselves to taxing the sh1t out of everything & everybody so they can throw money at problems, rather than reform them.
    I call that regressive, not progressive as they simply think that throwing money at a problem, solves it. Which in fact it rarely does.

  46. And in the interests of balance, there was a future Labour MP in the same year group who was of equally limited ability. It is profoundly depressing to see how driven but very limited people climb their way some way up the greasy political pole. We ought to have the very best of each generation as our leaders. My experience of these two suggests that the HoC is filled with thorough second and third raters.

  47. Thanks OLD NAT.
    So UKIP on 6% which means 2% lab lead changes to a small con lead at a GE.
    Neck and Neck then really this far out.

  48. ROB SHEFFIELD

    `I and many others learned this centrist lesson 29 years ago: unfortunately it took a further decade and two more defeats (making FOUR in a row) for many others to learn.`

    Agree with you there…Hopefully Ed has learnt his lesson too…Interesting that Mike Smithson is saying bookmakers have increased the odds on Milliband quitting the leadership after his recent performances

    BOO BOO
    It is too early to say,but seems like there is a small Labour lead forming

    A strategy of voting with the government on Welfare reform will not increase Lib Dem VI but will increase Tory VI,because it is a policy very much on the right.What will increase Lib Dem VI is increasing the tax threshold to 10000 and they may pull voters from both Cons and Lab.

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