Two new polls tonight, and both show a one point Labour lead. ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent has topline figures of CON 37%(-1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 14%(+2). Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%.

The gap between Labour and Conservative is obviously the same (and seems to be very typical of recent polls showing the two main parties pretty much neck-and-neck.) There is more contrast with the Lib Dems: YouGov normally give the party their lowest scores, the 14% from ComRes is one of their better scores of late from a non-ICM pollster.


291 Responses to “ComRes and YouGov both show 1 point Labour leads”

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  1. Chou. As Alec points out, no-one is saying that Conservatism is dying.

    Mind, when the Tories can’t get within touching distance of 40% vote share in their second most propitious circumstances in half a century (after 1983) and when they’ve only breached 40% VI for three brief periods since Kylie was singing about being So Lucky, one might well ask whether they have some chronic debilitating disease.

  2. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    In a theoretical poll about theoretical possibilities for questions in a theoretical referendum in a theoretical country, any theoretical Tory politician would be being partisan to pose any theoretical questions in a forced question way.

    Fortunately, any theoretical Electoral Commission would look at the level of confusion in voters’ minds caused by a particular question, instead of hiding such confusion through a forced question format.

    Any such theoretical Tory politician would demonstrate himself to be a partisan eejit by so doing – and that would never happen in the real world.

    Just as well this is all theoretical!

  3. @Colin
    “I get the impression that you are not in favour of removing Goodwin’s honour.”

    Not true. What I am against is scapegoating and not treating everyone the same way. I am glad his honour has been taken away but so should many others. I feel honours should be given only to people who do charitable works in their communities and on the recommendations of the community and politicians should have no hand in it.

  4. OLDNAT

    Don’t think I thought about them.

    My undergraduate grandchildren don’t seem to either.

    As far as they are concerned its covered by a loan they are unlikely ever to pay back in it’s entirety.

    And if they are called upon to start making repayments , it will mean they got a degree & a well paid job.

    Their money concerns at uni derive solely from the costs of eating ………and drinking.

  5. LIZH

    @” I feel honours should be given only to people who do charitable works in their communities and on the recommendations of the community and politicians should have no hand in it.”

    I agree

  6. @Colin
    “I get the impression that you are not in favour of removing Goodwin’s honour.”

    Not true. I am happy he has lost his but so should others. I don’t like scapegoating. I believe honours should only be given to people who do charitable works in their community on the recommendation of the people in the community and politicians should have no say in who gets them.

  7. Colin

    So you weren’t actually voting for that list. That’s fine – few people bother to read manifestos.

  8. OLDNAT

    Yes -I read the manifesto.

    My priority issues didn’t include tuition fees-though they did include schooling .

  9. Oh sorry for the double post.

  10. OLDNAT

    If you meant Rob Sheffield’s list -it says :-

    “* All graduates to pay for HE based on their annual earnings”

    That’s what we have.

    Which is fine by me.

  11. Jayblanc

    “That list is… well, little more than a nice round statement that pretty much any party currently existing in the UK can claim to be for. Including the Conservative”

    Then I look forward to the Labour leadership making it crystal clear in the policy review conclusions that they sign up to all of these notions then…

    If they do- every single one of them- I’ll travel down to London and kiss EdMs feet: because he would have just won Labour the next election! Mind you- not necessarily a majority given that Cameron will be after ‘owning’ the list as well ;-)

    Oldnat

    note my wording on the notion of funding HE…if you do- and you are a graduate- you’ll realise that you will be a tiny bit worse off each month after the next election (given you’ll still be living in a part of the UK and you would have gone to UNI well before a devolved Scottish parliament with HE funding powers existed).

  12. LizH
    ‘Not true. I am happy he has lost his but so should others. I don’t like scapegoating. I believe honours should only be given to people who do charitable works in their community on the recommendation of the people in the community and politicians should have no say in who gets them.’

    I am totally relaxed about Fred losing his knight hood which was for saervices to banking, not say charity or good works; clearly it was a mistake which has now been corrected. I don’t like scapegoating; however it is difficult to avoid with the bankers so overpaid, often undeservedly, and out of touch and sympathy with public feeling.

    I agree with you about honours which I believe should be based on the community volunteering people who have served us so well, often for little or no personal reward. The honours,. should exclude lordships, the upper house being decided on democratic ballot only, and knighthoods.

    I wonder sometimes whether honours to personalities and sports people are only given for populist reasons, to help retain a discredited and out of date system Most sports people dream of being world champion or winning an olympic medal they don’t need further recognition.

  13. “because he would have just won Labour the next election! Mind you- not necessarily a majority given that Cameron will be after ‘owning’ the list as well”

    …and before anyone makes the argument: I gave up fatuously claiming that Cameron had lost the 2010 election because he did not get a majority a long time ago.

    Right about the time he started passing laws and making policy which I totally disagreed with but could not be stopped !!

  14. Colin & Rob Sheffield

    Maybe the pair of you need to go off and have a quiet chat about what Rob meant.

  15. Oldnat

    I rather you went off and kept quiet !

  16. HENRY @ LizH

    If the honours systems is to be one of community awards (which seems reasonable) why can’t the awards be given by the communities, rather than some filtration system up to UK level.

    if a dinner lady in North Devon and a dinner lady in North Ayrshire have both given exemplary service to their communities, why not have them both given awards by their communities?

    At the level of knighthoods, or other “honours” of that nature, most are political or Establishment nominations for people who were doing their job, or (in some cases) weren’t and that was a useful bribe to get them out of the way.

  17. ROB SHEFFIELD

    Tough.

  18. Good Evening

    Colin.
    There are many graduates not in well paid jobs. I know physics and chemistry graduates who are working in low paid jobs in shops and cafes and living with parents here in the sunny south in their later 20’s.

    Some go into teaching then, on 20K starters, not easy to rent or buy a room with 1200K take home pay.

    I do agree that many loans will never be re paid.

  19. OLDNAT

    “Any such theoretical Tory politician would demonstrate himself to be a partisan eejit by so doing – and that would never happen in the real world”

    “Just as well this is all theoretical”
    _______________

    Indeed!!!! ;)

  20. @OLDNAT

    “At the level of knighthoods, or other “honours” of that nature, most are political or Establishment nominations for people who were doing their job, or (in some cases) weren’t and that was a useful bribe to get them out of the way.”

    People get paid to do a job and should do it well. They don’t deserve any other honours. INMO knighthoods and other “honours” should be done away with.

  21. LIZH

    Agreed.

  22. I am so please that today a blue, a yellow, a light yellow and a red agreed. See PR works.

  23. please should be pleased.

  24. LIZH

    :-)

    Unfortunately, the Establishment will carry on as always, in their own interests!

  25. I’m not so sure that just because people are paid to do a job that they shouldn’t also be considered for an honour if they shine in some way.

    Of course, may people currently get honours who have barely done their job satisfactorily, never mind shone.

    It’s all very well saying that they should just be community awards, but those awards also exist. Whilst welcome, they don’t have the same sense of gravitas that state honours give. Local communities can (and do) propose special people for state honours, and they are frequently awarded. They are simply buried under the sheer weight of awards to business, civil service and military figures.

    A soldier charging rescuing an injured comrade under fire is “just doing the job he’s paid to do”. So is a fireman who climbs under a burning oil tanker to pull out someone who’s trapped. I am all in favour of honours if correctly administered. But the whole business of making someone a knight because they gave your party £500,000 is disgraceful.

  26. @NEIL A

    The honours you are suggesting could/should be given by the employers of the individual concerned.

    “But the whole business of making someone a knight because they gave your party £500,000 is disgraceful.”

    I agree with you.

  27. CHRISLANE

    @”I do agree that many loans will never be re paid.”

    I think the main fault with this policy, is the future cost to government of unpaid student debt.

    I have a feeling that it has been underestimated badly.

  28. YG CON 39%, LAB 41%, LD 8%; APP -23

    Amber – thy polldrums are living at this hour!

  29. A report here on a new Mori poll in Scotland.

    SNP 26%ahead for Holyrood with Alex Salmond’s approval at +22. All other leaders are -.

    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2012/feb/snp-records-highest-ever-poll-lead

    Cllr. Peter Cairns (SNP).

  30. Tonights YG

    Lab 41%, Tory 39%, LD 8%

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/xf6hfumu8v/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-020212.pdf

    Looks like Labour have bounced a little over the past week or so, at the expense of the Lib Dems.

  31. @RHuckle

    “Tonights YG

    Lab 41%, Tory 39%, LD 8%

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/xf6hfumu8v/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-020212.pdf

    Looks like Labour have bounced a little over the past week or so, at the expense of the Lib Dems.”

    Yep- definitely a small lead has reappeared over the last week on YG- an improvement for Labour from the neck-and-neck lead swapping of period before.

  32. I must under some sort of spell because Labour apparently have now garnered a lead according to some on here. 2 point leads are slightly more often than before so thus MOE becomes lead. In the meantime though, looks like Tory vote has held up despite Cameron’s negative Europe coverage this week. Internals are pretty much the same as they were last time.

  33. ROB SHEFFIELD @RHuckle

    Except that the judgements on the main UK parties suggest that the voters don’t think much of any of them. That they make reluctant decisions in support of any of them shouldn’t enthuse any of these party’s supporters.

  34. I think a small Labour lead has formed.

    Ed is to make a big speech on `One nation banking`…The RBS episode falls right into his ideas about how to run the economy

    Coalition are making two legal changes which I totally support,Reducing the time offenders have to declare their offence and making it a legal right for children to have access to both parents…Well done to them

  35. I’m back! I wanted to see a consistent Labour lead re-established before re-entering the fray and now the 2% leads seems to be recurring now, I feel reborn and ready to be unleashed once more. I hunkered down for a while as it looked like the Tories were gaining a lead, but now that the rather disconcerting and unhappy polling blip has disappeared like the melting snow, I think it’s time to come out to play again.

    Where to start? What about all this fun and games with Willetts and Alexander giving Ed Lester, the Head of the Student Loans Company, a remuneration package that enabled him to be paid via a personal company without tax deductions? Old Two Brains and the Hapless Danny seem to be blaming each other and I’m now waiting for IDS to intervene to ensure that Lester’s pay is capped at £26,000 pa. Sounds a reasonable sort of sum, don’t you think?

    This old governing business is mighty tricky, with pratfalls aplenty around every corner. The joy of opposition, as Cameron discovered, is that you just wait for one to inevitably come along and, hey ho and away you go!

  36. There are too many 2010 Conservative voters in tonight’s sample – 554 Con compared to just 417 Lab. It’s surprising to see any Labour lead with that sort of skew, let alone Labour polling at 41% for the first time since 9th January.

  37. @crossbat

    But it’s the ST poll next. Perhaps you should have waited…!

  38. “Looks like Labour have bounced a little over the past week or so, at the expense of the Lib Dems.”

    Probably because of recovery from their dip over the Eds’ austerity announcement (or at least the reporting of it), I noticed the Greens’ poll numbers rose after that as Labour/former Lib Dem voters went to them in a fit of pique. Now it’s fading in peoples’ minds and Labour is recovering slightly.

  39. @Rob S

    “But it’s the ST poll next. Perhaps you should have waited…!”

    Ah yes, you may be right. I may have been premature in my celebrations; not for the first time, I may add!

  40. @ Phil

    There are too many 2010 Conservative voters in tonight’s sample – 554 Con compared to just 417 Lab. It’s surprising to see any Labour lead with that sort of skew, let alone Labour polling at 41% for the first time since 9th January.
    ———————————————–
    Lab are ‘miles’ ahead in London (yes, yes, okay: X-break alert!)

    I’d love to think it is the Ken campaign gaining suppport for Labour generally in London. Boris’s team will no doubt come up with something to rival Ken’s fare campaign.
    8-)

  41. @AMBERSTAR

    “Lab are ‘miles’ ahead in London (yes, yes, okay: X-break alert!)”

    Especially with a sample of 141, when the average over the previous 60 polls was 244. We chuckle at the Scottish crossbreaks when they are 160 ish for an electorate of sub-4 million. So 141 for en electorate of more than 5 million is pointless.

    It just skews averages and statgeek’s pretty graphs. :)

    Thankfully, the SD and MAD calcs throw such numbers out as outliers.

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