Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%. The two main parties remain pretty much neck-and-neck, with Labour narrowly ahead in tonight’s figures. I’ll do a proper update tomorrow once the YouGov tables are up.

I don’t know of any other polls out tonight, but feel free to discuss them here should any appear.


95 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%”

1 2
  1. Wow first

  2. WoW 2nd!

  3. It looks like the Tory extensive lead dissapeared faster than the chances of the UK not double dipping. At least it stops The Sun leaking the Yougov results early.

  4. Boooooring!!!

    Mind you LD seem to be levelling at 8-9% – what will pull them up?

    I can’t see much hope of that at the moment to be honest.

  5. Level pegging. Will be interesting to see the internals, but from VI nothing’s change much.

  6. The, ‘bonus ‘ doesn’t seem to have had any resonance yet, perhaps people appreciate the good job that Stephen is doing for us all. :-)

  7. Nothing new here. YouGov still out of line with all the other pollsters re LD rating.

    [Angus Reid, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos Mori, Populus and TNS all have the LDs somewhere in the range 10-16%.]

  8. @ Ken.”
    As poor health creates work for doctors, so poor punctuation and grammar creates work for secretaries, for the last 30 yrs I’ve created jobs for many lovely ladies. I have to say, however, my lack of skill as a scribe hasn’t held me back, etc etc, (laudator temporis acti ).”

    I prefer pedantry on this site to relentless self-promotion.
    Glad you agree with Tawney: that without “the support of the social order” [“lovely ladies” (!)] you would be just another illiterate. Good to see that you disagree with one Tory policy: that literacy is important.

  9. @Ken

    I think there is a Stephen Hester fanclub on Facebook, Maybe you ought to join and buy a T shirt.I guess he could do with the cash. :-)

  10. @ Old Nat
    I was using the usage of the King James Bible –
    “But in all Israel there was none to be so much praised as Absalom for his beauty: from the sole of his foot even to the crown of his head there was no blemish in him.”

    Yeh, lovely stuff. But here “so much praised” FOLLOWS rather than precedes what it qualifies & hence needs no hyphenation??
    But “the so-much-praised Absalom was a fit-fellow” as they would say in Manchester.

    Orwell translated Ecclesiastes into functional English.
    “I returned, & saw under the sun that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise [etc] . . .but time & chance happeneth to all men.”
    As
    “Objective consideration of contemporary phenomena compels the conclusion that success of failure in competitive activities exhibits no tendency to be comensurate with innate capacity etc”

  11. ROBBIEALIVE……….You prefer pedantry on this site ?That figures !
    By the way, there was an error in your 21:57 post, but far be it from me to be pedantic. :-)

  12. Poll boring, as others have said.

    What does anyone think of this –
    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16777322

    Germany trying to take over Europe as usual, but so far using peaceful means this time. If they try to impose this against the wishes of the Greek people, I wonder if we’ll have another war? It is, after all, the traditional way to get us out of global recession.

  13. VALERIE………..Good idea, I’ll ask him about it next week. :-)

  14. @ Ken
    …….You prefer pedantry on this site ?That figures !
    By the way, there was an error in your 21:57 post, but far be it from me to be pedantic.”

    I said I prefer pedantry to relentless self-promotion, which is a polite phrase for idle boasting. Glad you have studied my posts so carefully: you might learn something.
    Yes I agree an error in 21.57 post. It should have read “combination of an adverb & a verb”. Thanks for pointing this out. I like to learn from my mistakes rather than to wallow in them, or have them corrected silently by batteries of “lovely ladies”. [Pointless yellow thing.]

  15. @PETE B

    “It is, after all, the traditional way to get us out of global recession.”

    It also has that neat side effect of reducing the unemployed (both during and after).

    Saw an army chinook fly into and out of Leuchars today. Wonder what they were up to then? Inspecting the new army base?

  16. ROBBIE ALIVE

    @”I prefer pedantry on this site to relentless self-promotion.”

    I find that the two tend to go hand in hand on UKPR.

    :-) :-)

    You could try Pedants Anonymous Robbie .

  17. More pressure on Andrew Lansley over the health reforms. Major u-turns to be announced in the coming days:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jan/28/andrew-lansley-nhs-health-reform-climbdown

  18. Lib/Dems 8%. Now with a 3% error of margin they could be as low as 5%. That is getting very near UKIP territory.

    Oh dear!!!

  19. D Abrahams
    Nothing new here. YouGov still out of line with all the other pollsters re LD rating.

    [Angus Reid, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos Mori, Populus and TNS all have the LDs somewhere in the range 10-16%.]
    _______________

    Do you know what pollster was nearest to the actual result in the 2010 GE?

  20. D Abrahams

    As has been explained a million times before the methodology for Yougov penalizes the LD whilst the ICM increases their share

    ICM is currently also an outlier and I think you will find it difficult to justify assuming DK will vote the way they did in 2010 – I would be an LD according to that methodology.

    You seem happy to dismiss Yougov but don’t do the same with ICM

    What is probable that the VI is sitting somewhere in the low teens and is stuck there. I see no indication that it is increasing, if anything the trend is downwards.

    I have yet to hear any explanation from a LD member or supporter as to why that vote should increase based on anything more than wishful thinking

    Break the Collective Cabinet Responsibility when outside the Coalition Agreement to show clear blue water and you may stand a chance – also locking away Alexander and forgetting about bringing back David Laws would also help

  21. ROBBIEALIVE………….For such an active pedant you do seem prone to error, your post 10;56, ‘success of failure ‘. Oh well, I’ll stick to banking, at least I get to meet interesting people. :-)

  22. @Old Nat
    “Or maybe, you are just being silly.”
    ______________

    My total contribution of “try this for size”? Maybe you mean the piece in LFF that I linked to: “Salmond’s Scottish referendum is a textbook example of a leading question”. But if so, exactly what part of the following did you find “silly”? It seems as dry as a bone to me:

    “On Wednesday afternoon, Alex Salmond announced that the question the SNP would put to the Scottish people on 24 June 2014, the 700th anniversary of the battle of Bannockburn, would be:

    Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

    As many picked up on, this question is may be “simple, straightforward and clear”, but it’s not quite as fair as Salmond suggests it is. By phrasing the question as “do you agree…” rather than the more neutral options of “do you agree or disagree…” or simply using “should”, there is likely to be a small but significant increase in the amount of people voting yes.

    Time and time again, textbooks on survey construction warn against phrasing questions the way the SNP have, because it will lead to biased responses.

    The CDC lists leading questions in its catalog of survey biases (pdf):

    Different wording of the same question can guide or direct respondents toward a different answer… The preferred phrasing is, “Do you agree or disagree that . . . ?”

    Taylor-Powell (1996) writes:

    Biased questions influence people to respond in a way that does not accurately reflect their positions. A question can be biased in several ways:

    (1) when it implies that the respondent should be engaged in a particular behaviour;

    (2) when the response categories are unequal or loaded in one direction;

    (3) when words with strong positive or negative emotional appeal are used, such as “freedom,” “equality,” “boss,” “bureaucratic,” etc.

    Here are some examples of biased questions:…

    3. Do you agree that funding for Extension in your county should be increased?…

    This is a leading question. A better question would state:

    Do you agree or disagree that Extension funding should be increased?

    And Janes (1999) warns questioners against leading questions, saying:

    Let them tell you what they think.

    Salmond is not the first referendum writer to phrase his question thus, however.

    The wonderfully obfuscated question asked of Quebec in 1995 read:

    Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?

    While the question which decided Malta’s accession to the EU was:

    Do you agree that Malta should become a member of the European Union in the enlargement that is to take place on 1 May 2004?

    What else do these referendum questions have in common? They were all written by the group campaigning for a yes vote. The question may still be simple, straightforward and clear, but it’s looking less and less likely that it’s fair.”

  23. Allan

    Please restrain yourself, kicking libdems when they are down is so annoying :smile:

  24. @ Colin
    “I prefer pedantry on this site to relentless self-promotion.”
    “I find that the two tend to go hand in hand on UKPR.”

    Very true Colin! [Yellow splodge inscribed with “order of Lenin”]
    & glad that you too are indifferent to Tory policies to improve literacy.

  25. Phil

    I’m sure that the unfairness of the question will be more than made up for by the extreme fairness of the campaign :lol:

  26. richard in norway
    Allan

    Please restrain yourself, kicking libdems when they are down is so annoying
    ________

    Okay there could be some light at the end of the tunnel. The Scottish breakdown might have the Lib’s on 9%. :)

  27. @Allan Christie

    ICM were closer overall than YouGov, based on comparing the final polls of each. But it’s a false comparison, because ICM’s fieldwork was completed a day before all of the other polling companies. When you compare the penultimate YouGov poll of one day earlier, which did have a comparable fieldwork date to ICM’s final poll, YouGov was closer. FWIW.

  28. phil

    Why don’t you just ask Shakespeare the damn question?

    To be, or not to be, that is the question:
    Whether it’s a Nae or a Yeah let the people decide. :)

  29. phil

    Thanks for that explanation. I was just wondering why Mr Abraham was so interested with ICM etc. :)

    He must be running out of straws!! ;)

  30. Phil

    That may just be the most informative and useful post I’ve read in 2 years of visiting this site.

    Politics is a grubby and nasty business, but every once in a while, an issue crops up of such historical importance that all sides have a duty to be clinically clean and scrupulously honest. If the precise wording of the independence question isn’t one if those issues, then we’ll never have one in these isles. What would be the point of either side winning the vote by subterfuge?

  31. @ Ken
    ………….For such an active pedant you do seem prone to error, your post 10;56, ‘success of failure ‘. Oh well, I’ll stick to banking, at least I get to meet interesting people. ”

    I’ve just sacked my secretary for that typo: sorry “lovely lady”. God help us that we should move beyond the terminolgy of the 1950s.
    I’m sure your banking colleagues are the most interesting people on the planet. Though I do recall that, having caused the financial crash in 2008, not one of these fascinating characters, despite innumerable invitations, was prepared to appear on TV or radio to explain their performance. Never was so little heard from the so few who had caused so much damage to so many.

  32. @D Abrahams
    Nothing new here. YouGov still out of line with all the other pollsters re LD rating.

    [Angus Reid, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos Mori, Populus and TNS all have the LDs somewhere in the range 10-16%.]
    _______________

    You forgot Opinium at 9%. And ICM are 3% above the next closest.

    So your post could equally have read
    “ICM (16%) still out of line with all the other pollsters re LD rating. [Angus Reid, ComRes, YouGov, Opinium, Ipsos Mori, Populus and TNS all have the LDs somewhere in the range 8%-13%.]

    But I think that there is something new, namely that the LDs have never been in single digits with YouGov for such a sustained period. This is now the 12th poll in a row when they’ve been below 10%. I believe that that’s now a record for this parliament, if it wasn’t already.

  33. @LeftyL

    Thanks.

  34. @D Abrahams – “… LDs somewhere in the range 10-16%.”

    Looking at the two dozen polls in week before the 2010 GE. YouGov once predicted 24% for the LDs, five other polls put them in the 25-26% range, all the rest overstated LD support by 3-8%.

    Some discussion here:

    h
    ttp://www.research-live.com/comment/general-election-2010-did-the-opinion-polls-flatter-to-deceive?/4003088.article

    Whether the problem is LD recall, or turnout… and which polling company is now “out of line” as you put it, only time will tell.

    Expirience would suggest that we may need to look for “shy LDs” in future… but questions raised by recent by-elections (on the ALDC website) suggest otherwise:

    1.Voters are being truthful but change their mind (why?) before they get to a ballot box. – do we need to counter late voting influences, if so how?
    2.Voters don’t like to offend the nice local Lib Dems and even good canvassers are failing to pick it up – do we need better methods of gathering voter ID that avoid this misinformation, if so, what?.
    3.Are we mistaken in our previously held beliefs about who votes when they are identified and knocked up?

  35. Sunday Express poll: Independence support at 51%

    Sat, 28/01/2012 – 23:05

    Commenting on the Vision Critical poll for the Scottish Sunday Express – which reports that support for independence has reached 51% – the SNP referendum Campaign Director and Westminster party leader Angus Robertson MP said:

    “This is the first serious test since the Scottish Government launched its referendum consultation and is a great boost coming at the end of this historic week.

    “It shows that voters understand the Scottish Government policy is for an independent Scotland with the Queen as Head of State. Scotland and England would become united kingdoms, rather than the United Kingdom.

    “Support is growing for Scotland gaining the full range of job-creating powers we need to boost jobs and recovery, and becoming an equal and independent country with access to the record tax revenues being generated by Scotland’s North Sea oil and gas.

    “Independence support is also rising because of the behaviour of the anti-independence parties and their negative message which is alienating more and more voters. We are also getting a good response in England because of the measured way we have articulated our case.”

    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2012/jan/sunday-express-poll-independence-support-51

  36. @ Colin.
    Val. “I’m just interested why you feel Mr Hester needs your support.”

    Only from the hypocrites who fawned over & knighted the person who’s mess Hester is charged with cleaning up.”

    “Who’s”!! Perhaps you should write in French not English: at least you would not commit all these apostrophe atrocities.

  37. ROBBIEALIVE………..Feeling better now you’ve got that off your chest ? Incidentally, I work in a sector that provides both high quality employment and consistent profit, ergo, taxes………not to be confused with the Democrat inspired inappropriate activity undertaken by our friends on the other side of the pond. Can’t help promoting myself in the process of enlightening others, it’s a duty. :-)

  38. Reposted from earlier in the week (apols for repetition) but these links may be of interest while still current.:

    Michael Keating, professor of politics at Aberdeen, on PM (38 mins), explained the difference between a ‘hard’ and a ‘soft’ question:

    Opinion polling consistently points to the fact that any question that mentions separation/leaving/outside the UK is a ‘hard question’ and gets significantly less support than a ‘soft question’ of the type favoured by Salmond, which only mentions being an independent ‘country’ (a further softening of the original wording suggested by SNP which talked about being an independent ‘state’).

    h
    ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01b1g9b/PM_25_01_2012/

    More opinion on the question of the question this time from Professor Robert Cialdini of Arizona on Today (2 h.53mins).

    Loaded and biased is his verdict on Alex Salmond’s “Do you agree” version… “It sends people down a particular cognitive shute designed to locate agreements rather than disagreements” – (giving the oportunity to agree with something that is assumed in the question to be the prefered option is a one-sided or loaded question).

    Do you agree or disagree? is a balanced question. Asking a one-sided as opposed to an even-handed question can result in a 9% difference in the support for a given proposition.

    h
    ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01b1ljk/Today_26_01_2012/

  39. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could have one thread that wasn’t about Scotland? No wonder support for Scottish independence is growing in England.

  40. ROBBIEALIVE………….You’re at it again. ‘ write in French not English ‘ go figure prof……very sloppy. :-)

  41. Pete B

    Wouldn’t it be nice if we could have one thread that wasn’t about Scotland? No wonder support for Scottish independence is growing in England
    ____________

    I totally agree with you but in Scotland they are saying.. “Wouldn’t it be nice to watch a major football tournament without re-runs of 1966”.

    No wonder support for English independence is growing in Scotland . ;)

  42. @ Ken.

    ROBBIEALIVE………..Feeling better now you’ve got that off your chest ? Incidentally, I work in a sector that provides both high quality employment and consistent profit, ergo, taxes………Can’t help promoting myself in the process of enlightening others, it’s a duty.”

    Fair enough & I’m not in the least bit anti-business. [Yellow splodge].
    But I consider it my “duty” to satirise the use of “lovely ladies” to describe female employees. If you don’t get that, then, as Louis Armstrong said to the Duchess when she asked him to define jazz: “Lady, if I have to explain it, then you ain’t never going to get it.”
    And the bankers, always so salient in the Tory interest in election campaigns, did hide from the media in 2008.

  43. @ Bazcs

    OK, let’s discount YouGov and ICM. That still leaves seven pollsters with the LDs in the range 10-14% (I left out BPIX and Survation from my previous list).

    And there’s been some encouraging movement in some of these polls too:

    Populus now has the LDs at 13%, up 5 from a low point of 8% last year.

    Ipsos Mori now has the LDs at 12% up 3 from a low point of 9% last year.

    Not conclusive of anything but some suggestion that things may be improving (even if you ignore ICM which also has the LDs up 3 from a low point of 13% last year).

  44. ROBBIEALIVE………..I was winding you up, sorry , ‘lovely ladies’ might have revealed the hidden message. Anyway, I appreciate your concern for our lovely language, more power to your elbow. :-)

  45. Phil

    But the unionist parties have been calling for a question with a Yes/No answer,

    For example Lamont said “The people of Scotland deserve a clear, decisive result – that means the SNP reaffirming its commitment to asking a single, unambiguous yes or no question.”

    The only way that you can phrase a question with a Yes/No answer is to ask if people agree with a proposal or not. It could be made more wordy by phrasing the answers as “Yes, I agree” and No, I do not agree”

    It may be that the experts suggest that it should be a question which doesn’t have a Yes/No answer, in which case that may end up being implemented, despite the preference of both sides for such a question to be asked.

  46. On the subject of LibDem improving on polling for actual elections– I did have a look into this my self. And yes, there is evidence that shows that the LibDems usually get a modest improvement over polling during an election…

    Somewhere around 2%. Which currently will put them just back into double figures.

  47. The weekend YouGov poll tends to be a little more favourable for the Conservatives than the midweek ones so, considering last weekend’s had the Tories 5% ahead, only for Labour to then lead in three of the subsequent four, this poll today, showing a narrow Labour lead, may well presage larger Labour leads in the week ahead.

    Are we detecting the slow unwinding of the EU Veto boost for Cameron and a reversion to the pre December norm where 3-5% Labour leads appeared to be the recuuring pattern?

    Another thought. Was I the only person who detected a more aggressive and antagonistic stance from Miliband on the Hester bonus award? No mealy mouthed platitudes this time; a straightforward accusation that Cameron was guilty of a failure of leadership. A nice “news bulletin-friendly” soundbite that suggests he might be beginning to sharpen up his presentational skills. Early evidence that his new Chief of Staff, the former adviser to the Archbishop of Canterbury Tim Livesey, is starting to exert a beneficial influence, perhaps?

    Chris Lane 1945 should be heartened because Tim Livesey is a devout Roman Catholic who has recently completed a religious retreat at Worth Abbey. He almost became a Benedictine monk at Worth many years ago and his appointment might indicate that Labour may be “doing God” again!!

  48. JAYBLANC

    ” there is evidence that shows that the LibDems usually get a modest improvement over polling during an election…”

    But that evidence all relates to times when the LDs have not been in government in the UK. They are now in uncharted territory.

  49. @ Ken
    ROBBIEALIVE………….You’re at it again. ‘ write in French not English ‘ go figure prof……very sloppy.

    Yes: more correct would be: “write in French not in English”: or “write French not English”. With your reawakened interest in the language you may even rid yourself of the “greengrocers’ apostrophe”. As Matthew Engel said: “I demand an end to the apostrophe: Then the maligned greengrocer will be as literate as you and I.” I’m sure you will appreciate the little sting in the tail of his comment..

  50. OLDNAT

    But that evidence all relates to times when the LDs have not been in government in the UK. They are now in uncharted territory.
    ___________

    Great point and we saw what happened to them North of the Border.

1 2