This months polls seem to have bunched together to an absurd degree – yesterday we had ICM, Populus and YouGov, now we also have Angus Reid, TNS-BMRB and Ipsos MORI (plus of course, another YouGov daily poll tonight).

MORI have topline figures of CON 38%(-3), LAB 38%(-1), LD 12%(+1). Unlike most of the rest of the recent polling this is actually a slight move against the Conservatives although it still leaves the two parties neck and neck. The leader approval ratings are also very negative for Ed Miliband, dropping to minus 26 from minus 16 a month ago. It does also have an interesting political implication for inside the Westminster bubble – up until now the Labour party have been using MORI’s leader ratings to claim that Miliband’s leader ratings are broadly comparable to Cameron’s at a similar stage in his leadership. It was quite a tendentious claim anyway (Cameron’s ratings were around minus 5 or 6 at this stage), but it certainly cannot be sustained any longer. Miliband’s approval ratings are now heading into Hague or IDS territory.

TNS-BMRB have the most positive figures for Labour we’ve seen recently, with topline figures of CON 37%(+2), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 13%(-2). Figures for Miliband are again more negative though, the percentage of people telling TNS they have confidence in him to solve the country’s problems has dropped to 22% from 25% in October. 38% said they has confidence in David Cameron (down from 41%).

Angus Reid also have Labour holding onto a small lead, although it has fallen sharply since November, with topline figures of CON 35%(+2), LAB 37%(-5), LDEM 11%(+3). Again, Ed Miliband’s figures have fallen sharply – his net approval stands at minus 31 (down from minus 20 in November).

UPDATE: YouGov’s daily poll meanwhile has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 38%, LD 9%, so another one with a small Tory lead. Overall we now have ICM & YouGov showing narrow Tory leads, ComRes & MORI showing Labour and the Conservatives level, Angus Reid, TNS and Populus showing narrow Labour leads.


486 Responses to “New Ipsos MORI, Angus Reid and TNS-BMRB polls”

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  1. I suppose Newt imagines he might be onto something. If capital gains tax was 0% then Mitt’s tax return would look even worse…… :-)

  2. Allan Christie
    AmbivalentSupporter
    @Allan Christie,

    Scotland will never back independence imo…if the polls show that there is a small ‘no’ lead this far out, it is unlikely that the ‘yes’ vote will ever overtake
    _____________

    Well the same was said about any party winning a majority in a PR parliament and look what happened.

    If it was a LARGE “no” majority I could see the sense in that, but a SMALL one surely is much easier to overturn. Whatever the outcome, whatever your preference, and whatever your view of the prospect, a narrow majority at this stage allows either side to move to a clear lead by 2014.

    It is seldom that I can agree so wholeheartedly with any politician but Bruce Crawford said the other day that “…nothing could better guarantee that that support [for independence] surges higher still than this blundering, ham-fisted intervention by Tory right-wingers with no mandate in Scotland.”

    The SNP will not win this referendum. The Unionists will lose it.

  3. @ John B Dick

    The SNP will not win this referendum. The Unionists will lose it.
    ———————————–
    Nobody really cares about the referendum one way or the other.
    What people care about is: What happens next?
    8-)

  4. IAN PENNELL @ D ABRAHAMS

    Maybe instead enough of the Tory Right will be so disenchanted with their Party before long that they do a “Big Four” (vis-a-vis how the SDP formed in 1981) and either join UKIP, or set up their own Free Enterprise Party that campaigns for Workfare, a Flat Tax, nuclear power and the re-introduction of the Death Penalty (achieved by leaving the EU and crushing the Supreme Court to make this possible). Something tells me that such a Party would gain massive support.”

    You would certainly gain support but it could never be massive any more than your equivalent on the far left can gain massive support.

    The other parties may take a different vew of exactly where the centre ground lie, and they and their pollsters may be right or wrong at any point in time. The answer may be different in Scotland or Wales but the middle isn’t in the same place as either extreme.

    You also have the problem that the large companies which you perceive to be so supportive of your position, actually want to be in the EU and employ cheap immigrant labour.

    There are certainly many in England who favour the policies you promote. There cannot be many who see a prospect of political progress as straightforward as you do, which leads me to wonder whether you are in fact either pretending to be what you appear to be or disingenuous regarding early substantial acceptance of your policies.

    Quite simply, FPTP or no, it is not possible for any party to become a dominant party unless there is some other party further to both the left or to the right. The most right wing party and the most left wiing party in the spectrum can never be the major party.

    How would you describe a more right-wing party than the one you envisage as being popular? What could its policies be?

  5. @ Hooded Man

    “Given the hoo-hah over the message conveyed by proposed changes to inheritance tax here in the run up to the election, it’s hard to imagine a politician standing on the platform that Gingrich has chosen”

    I’ll tell you where I stand on the estate tax. Keep it in place and permanently raise the minimum level that you’re taxed at. I support 7-14-35.

    You don’t pay a dime of estate tax unless you inherit 7 million dollars as a single filer or 14 million as a dual filer. Anything above that, you should pay 35% flat rate.

  6. @ Valerie

    “Sorry but I just can’t give much credence to your views on the relative strength of civil liberties in America vis a vis Europe. I remember a previous comment where you said there was no difference between the plight of person in jail, who had suffered a miscarriage of justice, and a person who had been executed.”

    When you deprive someone of their liberty by putting them in prison and you’re innocent of the crimes that have been committed, a miscarriage of justice has occurred. It is better that ten guilty men go free than one innocent man go to prison. It doesn’t matter to me (not a whole lot anyway) that an innocent person is convicted and sent to prison but doesn’t get the death penalty. An injustice has still occurred.

  7. AmberStar @ John B Dick

    Nobody really cares about the referendum one way or the other.What people care about is: What happens next?

    Short term:

    Murdo Fraser leads the Scottish Christian Democrats
    Susan Deacon leads the ILP
    The SNP have to up their game to survive against real competition.

    The new duodecimal currency is the bottle, backed by nationalised stocks ot IrnBru in bond.

    England leaves the EU under The Leader, Ian Pennell.

    The third wall is built to keep out economic migrants from the uneducated English underclass. A Merkel gets commemorative blend of whisky named after her for laying foundation stone brought from Berlin.

    Conservatives, Greens, Liberals and Socialists join the SNP in adopting my proposal to make SME payment of tax on profits voluntary by agreement.
    [No kidding. My MSP sent it to John Swinney last week, though I wrote it in response to a SGP call for contributions]

    Long Term

    With EU backing, we invade England and annex it taking over their schools an hospitals and rescuing an impoverished disfranchised underclass. Leading politician are paid off with a bribe called “The Equivalent” as compensation for loss of office, and the two countries are united for the next 300 years.

  8. @SoCal

    *cough*Guantanamo*cough*NDAA*cough*

  9. @ Ken

    “Obama is becoming more and more like Tony Blair, more promises to the poor, while appealing to the middle classes to be fair………pure electioneering, all style, no substance.”

    What are you talking about?

    Did you actually watch or listen to the speech? Between you and the reporters at the Guardian, I have to wonder.

    @ Chris Lane

    “I think that President Obama has in substance done more for the less advantage than the Republicans did, so the style is to be praised if it wins GE in USA.”

    Keep in mind that a State of the Union is not a Queen’s Speech. The President can’t just order Congress to do things like a Prime Minister can order Parliament. This is true even with members of his own party.

    Obama has done more for people of all socio-economic backgrounds than Dubya did.

  10. SOCALLIBERAL.
    Good early morning from the english south coast.

    I agree with you, of course, about Obama.

    Do you know of any British politician who looks good on TV, speaks with passion, appeals to more than just the traditional left, understands the importance of wealth creation with social justice and stands apart from tradtional party polemics?

    Such a man or woman could probably win a GE or three, but would have to endure taunts that he is not doing enough, as Machiavelli warned the Prince would happen.

  11. @ John B Dick

    Quite amusing, in a way… but it simply reinforces my belief that there is no serious or credible answer to the question: What happens next?
    8-)

  12. @ Richard in Norway

    Guess who was on the Daily Show last night? Your heartthrob Elizabeth Warren!

  13. @ Chris Lane

    “Good early morning from the english south coast.

    I agree with you, of course, about Obama.

    Do you know of any British politician who looks good on TV, speaks with passion, appeals to more than just the traditional left, understands the importance of wealth creation with social justice and stands apart from tradtional party polemics?

    Such a man or woman could probably win a GE or three, but would have to endure taunts that he is not doing enough, as Machiavelli warned the Prince would happen.”

    A true leader learns to endure the criticism and the taunts. I’m not sure I know the answer to your question specifically though your bench might be deeper than you imagine.

    The SOTU last night was effective because Obama was able to go through what his administration had actually accomplished. He challenged Congress effectively. They won’t pass any of what he proposed….even the stuff they themselves once supported.

  14. @Alec

    Interest rates are only going to rise if there is either a recovery with good investment opportunities, or the start of a wage-price inflation spiral, which can only happen if the labour market approaches full employment in some sectors.

    Neither of these are on the cards, which is why rates are currently so low, even for long-term borrowing. Recession will confirm the current position, as the markets have been anticipating for some time now.

  15. @Phil,

    I don’t really understand your argument. Only 72% of Lab VI actually want to see a Labour majority; the rest would rather a Lab-Lib coalition. This tells me they aren’t really Lab supporters but are Libs who are voting tactically because they want Lab-Lib rather than Con-Lib, which is all they can get by voting Lib at present.

    There’s a similar poision with the Cons. 15% of Con VI don’t want a Con majority. So they look to me like tactical Libs also, maybe voting Con because the Libs are in an unwinnable position locally.

    So I see the position are rather more volatile than the VI figures alone suggest, with obvious implications for Lib-friendliness of the other parties’ policies.

  16. @Ken

    “I recognise in you a man I could do business with, and you know who said that ! ”

    So I’m Gorbachev to your Mrs Thatcher. An intriguing combination, although I have to say I was a much greater admirer of the Glasnost man than I was the Alderman’s daughter!

    I liked your anecdote about old “Deadly” Doug Ellis, the legendary former Villa Chairman and owner. Extraordinary character in many ways and someone who still divides opinion right down the middle amongst Villa supporters. Talk to some and he was an egomaniac whose penny-pinching and interfering ways prevented the club from realising its enormous potential; to others he was a loveable old rogue who saved the club from bankruptcy in 1968 and steered it to some of its more glorious post-war moments. I tend to be in the latter camp now, although I strayed into the former on a few occasions during his very nearly 40 years at the helm (he did disappear for a few years in the late 70s/early 80s after a typically Ellis-esque boardroom spat!).

    Big Tory supporter was old Doug, by the way, and a good friend of the former Tory Chairman and Health Secretary Dr Brian Mawhinney, the recently retired Chairman of the Football League.

  17. @ Hal

    Agree with your post 8.47am. Of course people give a different VI because of the constituency where they live. I was a committed Lib Dem supporter until Nick Clegg became leader. But I became irritated by him and would have backed Labour were it not the fact that Labour can’t win where I am. So I am left in a confused situation, of not being sure which party I would vote for. If I were asked by a pollster, I would probably say that I preferred a Lab/LD coalition.

  18. Not sure how this directly relates to current polling, but it’s one of those things bubbling below the surface that Cameron needs to address as government has been very wishy-washy on this for years now and there’s a lot of frustration going on that is hard to articulate in today’s society:

    “A senior academic from the University of Oxford has said courts in the West are putting equality issues before the right to religious freedom.

    Professor Roger Trigg, a leading figure in the university’s philosophy and theology faculties, made the claim after studying recent cases in the UK, USA, Canada and mainland Europe.

    He identified a trend towards curtailing religious freedom in favour of other social priorities such as non-discrimination.

    Ladele
    The case of Lillian Ladele – a Christian registrar who was disciplined by Islington Council because of her objections to civil partnerships – is specifically highlighted in the professor’s new book ‘Equality, Freedom and Religion’.

    Professor Trigg said: “A case is before the European Court of Human Rights about a civil registrar from Islington who refused to conduct civil partnership ceremonies because of her religious beliefs.

    “It should have been easy to find a solution here by giving these ceremonies to one of her colleagues, but the need to respect the right to equality trumped the freedom of religious convictions in this instance.”

    Danger
    He continued: “In recent years there has been a clear trend for courts in Europe and North America to prioritise equality and non-discrimination above religion, placing the right to religious freedom in danger.”

    “No State can be a functioning democracy unless it allows its citizens to manifest their beliefs about what is most important in life.”

    “I am calling for these rights to be balanced.

    Reasonable
    “There should not be a hierarchy of rights, but it should be possible to take account of all of them in some way. ‘Reasonable accommodation’ ought to be the standard.”

    Last year, the head of a European think-tank warned that churchgoers in Europe were “heading for a bloodless persecution” at the hands of secularists.

    Dr Gudrun Kugler warned that “advocates” were needed to keep religious freedom alive, and that church leaders and church attenders needed to “speak out more clearly and boldly when they see religious freedom being undermined”.”

    (Source: Christian Institute)

  19. @AMBER

    “Quite amusing, in a way… but it simply reinforces my belief that there is no serious or credible answer to the question: What happens next?”

    If the nationalist know the answer, the unionists don’t want to hear it. ^^

  20. The Question proposed by SNP is generally receiving adverse comment-assessed as highly loaded by various academics.

    I just think it is predictably dishonest & shows what a power game this is.
    To deliberately avoid the central feature of Scottish independence-leaving the UK-says much about SNP’s thinking & tactics.

    Unless I am being over-optimistic there are one or two encouraging signs from EZ.

    The ECB three year liquidity initiative is feeding into lower bond rates for Italy(Two year Italian government bond yields have more than halved from the high of 7.5% at the end of November.) .
    Italy’s 2011 Q3 deficit fell to 2.7% of GDP from 3.5% in the same period a year earlier.
    The narrower deficit figures come from a period before implementation of the Monti fiscal austerity packages.
    Italy ran a primary budget surplus–net of interest costs on the public debt–of 1.7% of GDP & aims to eliminate its budget deficit by 2013 and run a primary surplus of around 5% of GDP from then on .

    Ireland returned to the international bond market for the first time since September 2010 to swap €3.52bn of government bonds for longer dates.

    Yields on five year Irish bonds fell below 6 per cent for the first time since the bail out by international lenders. In early January 2012 the yield was 8 per cent and in July last year 18 per cent.

    Spain’s two year bond yields have halved in two months.

    None of this solves the Debt problem in EZ, but ECB is buying time with significant liquidity at 1% pa , to effectively fund more sustainable interest rates in Italy, Spain , Ireland & France.

    This comment in FT sums the situation up :-

    “The markets will not correct significantly despite the sharp rally from November 2011 given the liquidity provided by the ECB, which will keep bond yields in check in the eurozone and given the expectations of monetary easing in China and India, which will provide impetus to growth in these countries.

    Equity markets will thus maintain a broad uptrend in 2012. The euro will be the funding currency of choice given that the ECB will be the most aggressive in proving liquidity to the markets.”

  21. “Asked on Channel 4 News whether the coalition could ease back on spending cuts and go for growth, Ms Lagarde said: “I’m afraid not. Those countries that have fiscal space and that can slow down their fiscal consolidation efforts are very few, and I’m afraid Britain is not in that particular group.”

    FT

  22. alex anderson
    ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I think one of the virtues of the Scottish Parliament is the PR system which means that the only circumstances in which you can have one party rule is the situation (as at present) where a party is able to appeal across the community and the country.

    I think this effectively rules out extremism from the left or the right. Mind you I think it will be a very long time before Labour are the choice of the Scottish people such is their mediocrity and negativity.

    Finally I don’t know if the New Statesman poll is accurate or not but I believe Salmond is the one man capable of winning an independence referendum
    _____________

    Yeah I would go along with that. Labour’s negativity saw them nose dive down to 15 constituency seats out of 73. They are on the verge of being booted out of Glasgow and even the Daily Record has come out and said they are softening their negativity towards the SNP.

    The SNP has appealed to people right across society, something no other party in Scotland can claim to have done.

    I agree, The New Statesman poll needs closer scrutiny and is only one poll but never the less it’s encouraging. Salmond I would say is the one man who can persuade a yes vote and Cameron the one man who could lose the referendum because lets not forget this is Cameron’s referendum as much as it is Salmonds. After all Cameron is lending Salmond his powers!! ;)

  23. Finally,the media has started to change of tack and the blame of the lack of growth seems to attributed to Europe+government…About time…There`s only so much time one can spout false arguments…The focus needs to be on the government and they need to flesh out some measures of growth
    It is disappointing to see past New Labour leaders again trying to bring the focus onto Ed…Give the man a break

  24. COLIN
    `Those countries that have fiscal space and that can slow down their fiscal consolidation efforts are very few, and I’m afraid Britain is not in that particular group.”

    It is interesting that she met Osborne prior to that interview and everyone`s favourite Tory Nick Robinson told us that IMF`s chief economist has taken the opposite view and the IMF chief cannot be seen to criticise a country`s government.

  25. SMukesh

    “It is disappointing to see past New Labour leaders again trying to bring the focus onto Ed…Give the man a break”
    ___________

    “past New Labour leaders”..You see there lies the problem, Ed is old Labour!! ;)

  26. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    `Ed is old Labour!!`
    You are right…But he s not classical Old Labour,otherwise he wouldn`t have authorised the Balls` spending cuts

  27. @ Colin

    I think the point about fiscal policy is that is that it is about the choices you make. If I understand the difference between the Labour and coalitions policies, it is that Labour would have had about £20 billion (my guess) more debt up to this point. This is in relation to smaller department budget changes (less public sector redundancies) and no VAT rise. Labour would have expected more growth and higher tax receipts. Whether they would be paying higher interest on government debt, I am not sure. Labour would argue I expect that by keeping the country growing, there would be a snowball effect with more jobs created and more growth/tax receipts down the line. So by having say £20 billion more debt to start of with, you recoup this over a period and end up in a better position.

    As Labour appear not to have explained what their alternative policies would have looked like, this is just my take on it. I may be wrong and in the world of fantasy economics, who knows which plan would have worked out the best.

  28. Mandelson, as ever, was interesting on Radio 4’s Today programme this morning. He was broadly supportive of Miliband’s leadership but it was more a case of damning with faint praise rather than a ringing endorsement. However, I thought he rather effectively captured the essence of Miliband’s current difficulties and the dilemma facing all centre left political parties during these unprecedented economic times. Here’s some of what he said: –

    “I think what has happened, in the main, is that the right wing have been better at handling the rhetoric of austerity, cutting back and deficit reduction which is broadly speaking where the public have been…

    There has been a marrying up of right-wing rhetoric and what the public thinks is necessary.”

    He then goes on to say this in particular reference to Miliband: –

    “Ed Miliband is struggling with two things… and they are not easy,” he added. “In making an argument opposing what the government is doing in fighting the recession, he is also struggling with his own inherited legacy from the previous Labour government and they are not doing that either easily or finely, nor is it simple to do.

    And at exactly the same time, he is struggling to invent a new left-of-centre political paradigm that is not New Labour but takes lessons and experiences from the last 15 years… which revisits the issues to do with markets and inequalities and responsible capitalism to invent a new left-of-centre politics for the 21st Century.

    He is trying to do these things simultaneously… at a time when not very many people are giving him the benefit of the doubt. It is a rather unenviable job which I think he is doing well in the circumstances but it is not easy.”

    I’d say that was a very reasonable and accurate assessment of the awkward political place in which Miliband currently resides; a place that any Labour leader, however charismatic, would be too

    He concluded the interview by saying that he now regretted his “intensely relaxed about the filthy rich remarks”, made in 1998 when the economic circumstances, and prognostications, were a little different to what they are now.

    I’ve always found Mandelson an enigmatic and very interesting politician and I still find him so today.

  29. @BT

    “A senior academic from the University of Oxford has said courts in the West are putting equality issues before the right to religious freedom. ”

    This rather begs the question of what is ‘religious freedom’. IMHO it is the right to believe whatever you want, and to hold views about how life should be lived, but it does *not* extend to seeking to impose those views on others or to acting contrary to the law.

    In which case, it is entirely appropriate to place equality issues above religion. Those that disagree with the law have the right to challenge it through normal democratic process, not by asserting some inalienable right to exercise their prejudice.

  30. @BT Says…

    I doubt there is much traction there at all. The simpler answer is this, “If a public servant only wishes to pick and choose which duties of the job they will undertake, why should the tax payer waste money on employing them?”

  31. SMukesh
    ALLAN CHRISTIE
    `Ed is old Labour!!`
    You are right…But he s not classical Old Labour,otherwise he wouldn`t have authorised the Balls` spending cuts
    ______________

    Maybe he is some sort of Hybrid New/Old Labour leader. ;)

  32. Slightly off topic..

    Alex Salmond was asked by Lamont at First Ministers Questions today.. “What does Scottish independence mean”

    Alex Salmond. “Independence means you get a government which you voted for and not one someone else voted for”

    Priceless!!! :)

  33. SMUKESH

    Ye-probably fair comment too.

    R Huckle

    @”If I understand the difference between the Labour and coalitions policies, it is that Labour would have had about £20 billion (my guess) more debt up to this point.”

    It depends what you mean by “Labour”.
    We don’t know what the current Opposition plan looks like in numbers-they haven’t published any.
    So we have to fall back on the last ones Labour did publish-ie AD’s 2009 Budget.

    These are the forecasts for Total Debt at end of the Financial Years given , shown in the Red Book for AD’s last Budget. ( The figures in brackets are the latest Government forecasts for Debt at those FYEs-ie from the OBR forecasts in the 2011 Autumn Statement )

    2010/11 £ 977bn ( £ 905bn)
    2011/12 £ 1130 bn ( £ 1044 bn)
    2012/13 £ 1262 bn ( £ 1182 bn)
    2013/14 £ 1370 bn ( £ 1300 bn)

    AD did not forecast for 2014/15

    AD’s last growth forecasts, in the 2009 Budget, were for 3.5% pa from 2011/12

  34. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    `Maybe he is some sort of Hybrid New/Old Labour leader`
    I think you have hit the nail on the head

  35. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    :”Alex Salmond. “Independence means you get a government which you voted for and not one someone else voted for”

    ……..so it doesn’t mean ” leaving the United Kingdom” …….???

  36. Allen Christie

    Expect the same line to be used by the next Tory leader after 2015 when we have a labour govt propped up by SNP votes

    Then it really will be priceless

  37. Colin

    I could lie and say I was referring to England voting Tory but getting Labour because of the way the Scots voted!! ;)

  38. richard in norway
    Allen Christie

    Expect the same line to be used by the next Tory leader after 2015 when we have a labour govt propped up by SNP votes

    Then it really will be priceless
    _______________

    Maybe so but what would be more priceless is when you spell my name correctly lol. ;)

  39. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Yes-very amusing………………..but does “Independence” for Scotland mean/involve/result in , Scotland leaving the UK ?

  40. Colin.

    The independence which the SNP propose does mean Scotland leaving the UK politically but in some areas like defence and the pound it may take a while longer to fully separate.

    The Union is 300 years old and anyone with a bit of sense (regardless of what side of the argument they are on) will have to realise that independence will not just happen overnight.

    Personally speaking, independence for me means no Scottish MPs sitting in Westminster antagonising the Englissh and voting on English only matters ;)

  41. @Crossbat11

    I met Mandelson once – he came across as extremely intelligent, and far more personable than his public perception.

    @BT

    Render unto Caesar etc… I am deeply surprised that a Theology professor should say that the world needs more theology. The only extent that this will feed into polls is as part of the continued myth around the “attack on Christianity”. I suspect its already discounted in the polls by the section of the sample that reads the Daily Mail…

  42. @Allan Christie

    “I could lie and say I was referring to England voting Tory but getting Labour because of the way the Scots voted!!”

    What you have described has only ever happened once in the history of British General Elections (in 2005 when, by a relative handful of votes, the Tories received a larger popular vote than Labour in England yet lost overall when the Welsh and Scottish votes were included). However, since the 1950s, the Scots have had Tory Governments foisted on them in 1970, 79,83,87,92 and 2010, when they have clearly voted Labour in every one of those elections.

    Somebody’s come off worse in all this, don’t you think, and it’s not disenfranchised English Tory voters!!

  43. ALLAN

    @”The independence which the SNP propose does mean Scotland leaving the UK politically ”

    THanks.

    Why does the proposed question not make that explicit then?

    “Independence” is not defined in the proposed question.

    It might mean all sorts of things , to different people-some of which might not involve exiting the UK.

  44. SMukesh
    ALLAN CHRISTIE
    `Maybe he is some sort of Hybrid New/Old Labour leader`
    I think you have hit the nail on the head
    ___________

    The problem Ed has is, he’s not firfulling the expectations of the Unions and for the Blair factions he’s to far to the left but I would put it down to image.

    If his brother was leader and coming out with the same polices as Ed then I don’t think he would be getting the same stick. I honestly think it’s down to his image and his voice.

    I’m tyring not to be horrible here but he does sound like a duck in distress stuck in a Tory duck pond. having learned he’s been caught fiddling expenses. ;)

  45. crossbat11
    What you have described has only ever happened once in the history of British General Elections (in 2005 when, by a relative handful of votes, the Tories received a larger popular vote than Labour in England yet lost overall when the Welsh and Scottish votes were included). However, since the 1950s, the Scots have had Tory Governments foisted on them in 1970, 79,83,87,92 and 2010, when they have clearly voted Labour in every one of those elections.
    ______________

    Yes I agree with you, I was just pulling the other posters leg. :) but you have proved the point which Salmond was making in refrence to Lamonts question…”What does indepencne mean?”

    Salmond

    “Independence means you get a government which you voted for and not one someone else voted for”

  46. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    `If his brother was leader and coming out with the same polices as Ed then I don’t think he would be getting the same stick. I honestly think it’s down to his image and his voice.`
    Yes…He is falling between the two stools,Blairites and unions.However even Mandelson has called for him to be given time…I think everyone realises that the one thing that could assure an election defeat is party disunity.

  47. Colin
    ALLAN

    @”The independence which the SNP propose does mean Scotland leaving the UK politically ”

    THanks.

    Why does the proposed question not make that explicit then?

    “Independence” is not defined in the proposed question.

    It might mean all sorts of things , to different people-some of which might not involve exiting the UK.
    ___________

    Colin there are various arguments over what the question should look like and it is open to consultation but it’s the SNPs referendum (policy) to hold it so I think it’s only fair they should set the tone of the question.

    Salmond never dictated the questioning of the AV referendum.

  48. SMukesh
    He is falling between the two stools,Blairites and unions.However even Mandelson has called for him to be given time…I think everyone realises that the one thing that could assure an election defeat is party disunity”
    ____________

    I totally agree with that and we saw what party disunity did to the Tories for a decade and a half but party disunity in the Labour party was obvious just after the leadership election when the Labour parliamentary group clearly backed David. The alarm bells were already ringing!!

  49. @ Allan Christie

    I’m tyring not to be horrible here but he does sound like a duck in distress stuck in a Tory duck pond. having learned he’s been caught fiddling expenses.
    ———————————
    That’s a rather silly comment.

    Regarding expenses claims, Ed Miliband was one of the few MPs who was totally clean on expenses claims, actually claiming much less than he could have.

    Alex Salmond, on the other hand, claims the maximum allowable – the amount of food he eats at the tax payers’ expense is attested to by his multiple chins.
    8-)

  50. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    `The alarm bells were already ringing!!`
    As the great Blair said,`you can challenge me,but you can`t undermine me`…
    The Tories at present are not as united,Europe still divides them and the Tory PM is having to go through hoops to keep everyone happy

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