Following the YouGov London poll last week that showed Ken Livingstone narrowly ahead of Boris Johnson, ComRes have released a new London poll showing almost identical figures. Topline voting intention figures are:

First round: Johnson 44%(-4), Livingstone 46%(+6), Paddick 5%(-2), Others 5%
Second round: Johnson 49%(-5), Livingstone 51%(+5)

Changes are from ComRes’s last London poll in November. There has been a slight change in method, as the figures are now weighted by turnout when I don’t think they were a month ago, but this made no difference in the first round, and marginally reduced Ken’s lead in the second round.

Full tabs are here.


141 Responses to “ComRes show Ken ahead in London”

1 2 3
  1. @ Cyberkarst

    “Notice that Brian Paddick gets 38% of stated second preference votes, whilst only 5% of first preference.

    I think this indicates that the respondents (& the electorate?) don’t understand the Supplementary Vote system.

    Which I find a bit depressing.”

    I don’t understand it very much at all. IRV is something I don’t like. It might be okay at a political convention where you have political activists casting ballots and negotiating with each other. But it’s not appropriate for a general electorate.

  2. @nick p
    The Armed Forces are being ruthlessly cut, why not the BBC? Its all tax payers money, you know, from “hard working families”.

  3. NICKP

    I love Red Ken. He clearly DOES engage with some people, just as Boris must do.

    Beyond comprehension?
    __________

    Okay beyond comprehension might be a tab strong but I don’t think he is what London needs. Every day would be spent talking down the city and attacking Boris over his stance on Bendy buses. :)

    You love Red Ken?? Hope Red Ed doesn’t find out!! ;)

  4. @RichardW

    You’re welcome.

    Regards, Martyn

  5. CHOUENLAI
    `This matter of blaming the press which supports your opponents, is the thinking of a morally defeated political party.`
    Sure…that`s your opinion…What it demonstrates is a lack of tolerance on the right for protest…There is clear evidence on this very forum that several posters share my view…The press seem to put the Labour party on trial but the government goes scot-free…They forget that the coalition is in power taking decisions with the power to affect millions,unlike the opposition….One of the cornerstones of the press is impartiality and it`s not unjust to protest against a Labour witch-hunt going on for the last 4 or 5 years.

  6. I thought the BBC was funded from a licence fee. Not necessarily taxpayers and taxpayers don’t necessarily have a licence either.

  7. NICKP
    `I thought the BBC was funded from a licence fee`
    Exactly…It has nothing to do with the taxpayer…It was exactly as you said a warning across the bow not to say anything against the government and to keep certain private television channels supportive of the government happy
    `

  8. “EU single market commissioner Michel Barnier said it was right that the financial sector pays its fair share as he defended the European Commission’s proposed tax on bond, share, derivative and foreign exchange trading.

    Speaking at the City of London’s Guildhall, Barnier said the financial transactions tax – also known as a ‘Tobin tax’ – “won’t be imposed on the UK against its will”.

    Londonlovesbusiness.com

    :-) :-) :-)

  9. It’s interesting that Tories tend to want free market, private sector solutions with competition driving value for money…

    …except when it comes to the Army or the Royal Family.

    The public tend to love the NHS, the BBC and (once upon a time) the Royal Mail. The tactic with them all is to underfund and restrict them until they wither and then let the sharks tear them apart.

  10. Some very interesting reports & views on Bloomberg tv today include:-

    THe voluntary private sector Greek Bond haircut will be agreed-maybe up to 65%. It will not trigger Credit Insurance contracts.

    ECB liquidity initiatives are easing the risk of an EZ credit crunch.

    EU equity values now seen as low vs those in US-“overweight” advice being increasingly seen for EU stocks-whereas sentiment on US is increasingly cautious.

    Quite a change in emphasis !

  11. CHOUENLAI
    `But to avoid making yourself look a bloody fool, think about it a bit more.`
    You can call me what you like and it`s not going to bother me…As I pointed out to you earlier,I only wrote a couple of lines about it keeping your point in mind but you are making a big issue of it…When you moderate the blog,you can tell me what to do

  12. @SMukesh – “… [a] duty to cast their vote”

    My theory (!): there is a significant proportion of the electorate who feel this way, many of them are not particlarly ‘political’ or aligned to one party longterm, and they make a firm decision close to the time of an election.

    Not always the case, but a late swing of just a percentage point or two can decide elections.

  13. Chou

    Remember the press DC got when he became leader?

    …that interview with Paxman-first question -“what is a Pink Pussy ?”

    DC has had to work bl**dy hard to get the hearing he receives these days. It was out & out disrespect & antagonism at the start.

    And he still gets it in the neck from people like Evan Davies on R4.

    Over time politicians get the press they earn .

  14. @NICK P
    The BBC is funded by a licence fee, which is paid by the public. And, it is never enough, therefore the BBC will have to make do with less. As for the Army, what are you talking about ?They are having 8 % reduction in manpower.
    Now about “our” Royal Family, get it out of your system Nick, have a good go, lets get rid of em. Put it in your manifesto.

  15. RiN / Amber

    I think Ken- and the Mayoral election- is as relevant to EdM (and as much a yardstick) as are the Scottish elections i.e. only slightly and at the margins.

    Ken can do and say what he likes (for example some of his anti Jew rantings) but it won’t really affect EdM. However the more ‘left’ in his campaign rhetoric the more likely Ken is to lose in my opinion. Which would be quite an achievement.

    EdM on the other hand needs to concentrate this spring on gaining seats and councils *directly* from the Conservatives.

    IMHO that is the true yardstick this year.

  16. @colin
    I certainly remember the sweet attitudes toward David Cameron in large area’s of the press Colin. There seems to be a high level of selective amnesia.

  17. The election is looking like a nail biter, that’s for sure.

    But I think we have to untangle the web of expectations slightly. At the last general election the Labour party polled 2 points ahead of the Tory party in London.

    Since then we’ve had a collapse of the LD vote and a major recovery in Labour fortunes.

    By any logic Labour should be the favourites for the London Mayor contest, even if the Tories really are 5% ahead nationally (which I don’t think any of us really believe).

    Boris has performed against expectations, and had begun to look like the favourite. But his reelection would be a spectacular coup for the Tories.

    If Labour doesn’t win in London, it will be another nail in Ed M’s tyres.

  18. ROB SHEFFIELD
    `Ken can do and say what he likes (for example some of his anti Jew rantings) but it won’t really affect EdM.`
    I wonder how many Jewish votes Ken lost due to his Nazi rantings…I doubt they are going to come back to him…Infact it would be interesting to see how many of the Lab voters planning to vote for Boris are Jewish
    I do think though Rob that a Ken win would be a shot in the arm for Labour and provide some much needed confidence.

  19. The Mayoral election is largely a personally contest.

    The London Assembly elections will be more interesting with the greens trying to beat the LDs and get a 3rd assembly member and also Labour trying to secure a decent result with 11/25 seats as the benchmark.

  20. ‘@ROB SHEFFIELD
    I am glad you agree with me regarding the Labour position in London. They should walk it, in my view they will not however. If you will pardon the expression, I have always fancied a nice mixed race woman (for Labour).
    Kenneth, has far to much bags and baggage. Clearly the overall Labour problems are holding them back, they should take London with ease in the present circumstances, a two point lead is nothing.

  21. @ Old Nat

    “Interesting change in protocol over the decades. When I were a lad, politicians were seldom referred to by their first name.”

    Hmmmm. I’ve never really thought about this much. I guess it depends on the first name and how unique it was or how catchy it was. Also I guess the more familiar one feels towards a politician and relatable the politician might be, the more likely you might call them by their first name.

  22. What’s this about ken being anti Jewish, that sounds strange. Are you sure you are not confusing anti-Israeli comments or pro-Palestinian comments as anti Jewish or did he really come out and say “Jews are bad people”

  23. RICHARD IN NORWAY
    `What’s this about ken being anti Jewish, that sounds strange`
    I remember a big furore over Ken accused a Jewish reporter of behaving like a Nazi and he was forced to apologise for it later…This and a couple of similiar incidents made him appear anti-Zionist in the 2008 elections

  24. Rin,

    I personally don’t believe Ken is anti-Jewish, but he has been branded as such. He had an incident where he compared a journo from the ES to a ‘Nazi concentration camp guard’. He didn’t know the journo was Jewish, and the guy, and many others took huge offence and accused him of anti-semitism. Very poor choice of words, but not anti-Semitic per se.
    Google Ken and Finegold…..

  25. Ken is “anti-Zionist”-and has said that Israel should never have been created.

    Does this make him “anti-Jewish”?

    What is the difference ?, would be my question.

    This is a very interesting history of this aspect of Ken LIvingstone :-

    ht tp://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23478856-anti-semitism—and-a-timely-question-for-ken.do

  26. @Cyberkast
    @Anthony Wells

    Um… I think you are quite certainly and entirely incorrect to assert that people giving second preferences after voting for candidates likely to be in the top two “Don’t understand how it works”.

    They understand all too well, and are listing their preferences. It may be a long shot that their second preferences will matter, but polling is just a guess, and in sealed anonymous preferential voting it is entirely in the benefit of the voter to assume the worst case for their candidate and provide a second preference. And preferential voting is after all supposed to help eliminate people ‘locking in’ on one and only one candidate likely to win. It is very slightly arrogant to assert that someone who is working to the principle of the voting system, and covering the chance no matter how slim of their first preference candidate being eliminated early, “Does not understand the system”.

  27. New ICM poll for the Guardian:

    Con 40%
    Lab 35%
    LD 16%

  28. @ANDY JS

    Lib Dem faithful returning, or an outlier?

  29. Hooded

    Thanks, reading the transcript, I have to say he was a bløødly stupid fool. A politican should never let his irritation get the better of him. It seems he was really annoyed with the ES at the time, oddly he reminds me of a certain poster here.

  30. @R I N
    I have been compared to George Clooney, er sorry George Formby, but never Red Ken.

  31. Colin

    Many Jewish people are anti-zionist but they usually get branded as quislings

    My own belief is that the creation of Israel was the right decision but the Palestinians should have been properly compensated, but instead we tried to ease our guilty consciences on the cheap.

  32. Sam Coates of The Times has tweeted that the Labour lead will be squeezed to a 1% lead in a Populus poll tonight.

  33. Apparently the Populus figures are as follows:

    Labour 38 (-1)
    Tories 37 (+2)
    LD 13 (+1)

  34. Roland

    Well I could have been referring to you or maybe not. But you obviously see much of yourself in ken, you don’t share his Newt obsession do you?

  35. Richard

    Thanks.

    Will refrain from swapping views re KL on this topic-you wouldn’t like them :-)

  36. This is a classic case of the biter bit. If one remonstrates with an offensive bully, and says “you are like a bloody NAZI”, the bully turns out to be a Jew. What you have said is not anti-Semitic, it is an unfortunate choice of words in the circumstances, but not anti-Semitic. The kind of mindless political correctness Ken loves so much, bit his bottom for him.

  37. “Ken is “anti-Zionist”-and has said that Israel should never have been created.
    Does this make him “anti-Jewish”?
    What is the difference ?, would be my question.”
    It’s simple logic.

    So Al-Qaeda = Islamic. I’m anti-Al-Qaeda. But I’m not anti-Muslim.
    Because just because A = B and A = C doesn’t mean than B = C.

    This linking of ‘you’re against x, x is y, therefore you must be against y’ [1] sort of nonsense exists on both sides of the political spectrum.

    But given that the whole anti-Semitism [2] claim is quite a controversial one, I’d imagine AW doesn’t really want the conversation going there.

    [1] Related is the ‘you’re x, y was x, therefore you’re for the policies of y’.
    [2] The irony of claiming that someone is anti-Semitic for being anti-Israel/pro-Palestine, is that the Semitic people includes Arabs.

  38. Andy JS
    ‘New ICM poll for the Guardian:
    Con 40%
    Lab 35%
    LD 16%’

    It appears that ICM have LDs on double YouGov %. Perhaps somewhere in between say 12% would be a fair position, and one acceptable to LDs at this stage of recovery.

    Tories on 40/1% and Labour on 35/6% appears to confirm the changing scenario.

    However, I expect that the 5% lead will slip for a while until the austerity measures, investment in youth and welfare reform starts to pay off.

  39. Labour amendment in the LOrds defeated on benefit cap.

    Bishops’ amendment next.

    I like Garry Gibbons comment that the Government aren’t so much worrying about a defeat , as down on their knees praying for one.

    The power of opinion polls :-)

  40. Or to put it another way – exactly what CHOUENLAI said.

  41. Andy JS
    Just like London buses…Two polls at once…
    I think Tories and Lib Dems will be pleased and Labour will be relieved…Atleast they lead in one poll

  42. @Henry
    The current rumpas in the Lords will be doing Tory polling figures the world of good. I wonder if the LD 16% is coming because of their sensible and loyal support?

    Is Ashdown a joke or what ?

  43. “The Tories’ standing is their highest since before the general election in the Guardian/ICM series – they last stood at 40% in March 2010.

    Their lead is the biggest since the eight-point edge they enjoyed in June 2010, a few weeks after Cameron moved into Downing Street.

    Asked how Labour’s new harder line on the cuts affected the likelihood to support the party, the overwhelming majority, 72%, said it made no difference one way or the other, as against just 10% who said it made them more likely they would vote for it. That is fewer than the 13% saying they would now be less likely to vote Labour as a result of the change of economic emphasis, giving the shift a net rating of minus-three points.

    he new Guardian/ICM poll shows the combined total of the other parties at 9%. Their joint score is down four points over the month, with half of that fall accounted for by the Scottish National party, who sank from 5% ”

    Guardian tonight.

  44. ICM prove You Gov were not totally up the pictures, yesterday.

  45. Henry/AndyJS.

    ICM reallocate Don’tKnows according to the party that they voted for in May 10. So, that figure of 16% is based on the assumption that a couple of million people, currently a strangled from the LDs, will come galloping back to them over the next 3 years.

    Could well happen of course, but who knows? We’re in u chartered waters. My take, for what it’s worth, is that they will come back if, and only if Cameron cuts Clegg some slack to pull the Coalition leftwards. I can see no other reason why those disillusioned leftist LDs would go back to the LDs. But with Cameron in the ascendancy, having made a position for himself by chucking a few bloody scraps to his Right, why should he be inclined to go easy on Clegg?

    A strategically clever Cameron could truly queer Labour’s pitch over this next 12 months by helping the LDs gnaw away at the re-won Labour centre-left support. Is he strategically clever enough to rise above partisanship?

  46. COLIN“
    `The Tories’ standing is their highest since before the general election in the Guardian/ICM series – they last stood at 40% in March 2010`
    Will just point out that ICM poll post-veto in December 2011 was C 40/L-34/LD-14 and was published in the Telegraph
    `

  47. @COLIN
    If they have come out of that U turn down just 3, they have done very well. And they call Cameron lucky. So, the Tories have picked up a couple of points from somewhere else.

  48. Chouenlai
    ‘Is Ashdown a joke or what ?’

    I think he should show his leader (Clegg) some loyalty. Perhaps he is hoping for an opening in the C of E.

  49. AW. Re my post in moderation.

    The world has gone PC bonkers. No. REALLY. It has! I’m going to write about this to the Daily Ma….well, you know where…

1 2 3