Following the YouGov London poll last week that showed Ken Livingstone narrowly ahead of Boris Johnson, ComRes have released a new London poll showing almost identical figures. Topline voting intention figures are:

First round: Johnson 44%(-4), Livingstone 46%(+6), Paddick 5%(-2), Others 5%
Second round: Johnson 49%(-5), Livingstone 51%(+5)

Changes are from ComRes’s last London poll in November. There has been a slight change in method, as the figures are now weighted by turnout when I don’t think they were a month ago, but this made no difference in the first round, and marginally reduced Ken’s lead in the second round.

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141 Responses to “ComRes show Ken ahead in London”

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  1. Interesting change in protocol over the decades. When I were a lad, politicians were seldom referred to by their first name.

  2. Heck of a turnaround. What’s causing it?

    Is it a concentration of ABT voters towards Ken? Paddick’s figures look catastrophic even considering the LDs’ current polling.

  3. It’s good to have confirmation. Did Comres do a London GE VI at same time?
    8-)

  4. It is probably the thought of Boris representing London at the Olympics. You can just see it, Boris challenging Usain Bolt to an egg and spoon race !

  5. Interestingly it shows that the major charge against Ken that he was too old and unelectable is being squashed by the electorate…Sometimes the issues on the doorstep and in households are different from the pages of The Telegraph and The Mail…There are also similarities to the campaign against Milliband(Ken-old,tired,red,unelectable…Ed-weird,ugly,red,unelectable)…I believe that Ken`s record is what`s helping him keep it close…I was in London at the time and he did some good things

  6. Notice that Brian Paddick gets 38% of stated second preference votes, whilst only 5% of first preference.

    I think this indicates that the respondents (& the electorate?) don’t understand the Supplementary Vote system.

    Which I find a bit depressing.

  7. Cyberkarst they definitely don’t! Look at the actual voting patterns in previous mayoral elections (not least the large number of people who gave their first and second preferences to the same candidate.

  8. @Cyberkarst

    No, it just means no-one thinks he’s any good, but at least he isn’t Boris/Ken. I’m amazed that he only manages 38% of second preferences – that really is a dismal showing.

  9. Amber – not that I am aware of, no.

  10. After all the kerfuffle yesterday about the validity of the ST YG poll, the revised tables are up with the LD 2010 column corrected.

    Headline VI still 41:36:9, mind :-)

  11. Thanks, Anthony. :-)

  12. It’s the fares, stupid.

    Ken has played a relentless hand of promising fare cuts, followed by freezes after against Boris raising fares. It’s the one key issue (Ken and Boris are still, well….Ken and Boris….)

    The pickpocket ads are everywhere – most of you have seen it here and Ken is banging the drum very successfully. Whether it will last until May, who knows, but it has struck a chord. Ken is even get a better press from the ES, although it is still marginally pro-Boris.

  13. HOODED MAN
    Yes…and it looks like the main reason for Labour fall is a direct transfer to SNP…Fits with the 24 -Lab in Scotland…The Balls`U` turn is costing them…People forget that Labour is in opposition in England and Scotland and if the governments lose steam,Labour will gain votes due to anti-incumbency

  14. Well, thats the point I was trying to make last night. If Ken is beating Boris in London the national picture is more in line with the Comres/Hung Parliament territory as shown above. If Ken keeps going he can do it. I remember when johnson won, locally the tories did ok, and had a prospective majority of 3. Don’t remember the press crucifying Cameron when that happened! lol.

  15. KIEREN
    Well, thats the point I was trying to make last night. If Ken is beating Boris in London the national picture is more in line with the Comres/Hung Parliament territory as shown above.
    As I pointed above,The Lab fall is generally in Scotland due to there being a prominent anti-cuts party to go to…May not reflect in London

  16. It would be a real boost for Labour, if Ken & his team can bring this home. :-)

  17. @KIERAN
    So, what is your point ? That the YG Tory 5 point lead is rubbish and totally inaccurate? Because Livingstone has a very small lead in London, with its huge immigrant population, this represents the entire island does it?

    What do you mean by press “not crucifying Cameron”, are you suggesting that the Tories and coalition never get bad publicity ? Frankly, I find this kind of post as partisan as simply typing vote Labour in big red letters.

  18. AMBERSTAR
    `It would be a real boost for Labour, if Ken & his team can bring this home`
    Absolutely…It will shake the right wing press and may change the press narrative…But if he loses,no matter how narrowly,it will all be blamed on Milliband…The poll shows though that even Ken supporters don`t believe that he will win

  19. @amber star
    Honestly Amber, with general conditions in Europe, Britain and most of the world, a Labour victory in London would not normally be a surprise to me. Due to your candidate, your leader, and your current disarray, I don’t think you will.
    I am sure Livingstone will clean up in inner, but Boris will win the day due to outer.

  20. It will be a real headache for ed if ken brings this home!! Is ed going to be happy being linked with red ken. Ken will be the public face of labour, can he be controlled? Has he become a team player?

  21. @smukesh
    What is it with you and the Tory press? Do you expect them to be nice to the leader of the Labour party? Have you read the Guardian or the Mirror ever, try to find one positive thing about the the Tories in them. Your constant whining on this matter does not belong on this site.

  22. The big question hanging over Ken is turnout. As left-wing voters are generally less likely to vote (especially in inner city areas) will this have an effect on the outcome??

    Looks much more promising for Ken than a few months back though.

  23. Old Nat

    Winston
    Ted
    Harold
    Maggie.

    How old ARE you?

  24. I can sort of agree with Smukesh, but I don’t really feel sorry for Labour because they had the media on their side during most of their 13 years in office. In fact, the media undoubtedly influenced some of their election results. It’s just life in the modern era – tabloids are bound to support someone, and at the moment it just happens to be the Conservative Party (on the whole).

  25. CHOUENLAI
    You have made this point before and I have acknowledged it…As you can see,I haven`t written pages about it but just a tiny bit as I believe it has something to do with Labour`s poor ratings…It is a view shared by other posters in this case KIEREN…As to what belongs on this site,I am not sure that fellow posters are the best judge of this

  26. @ Chouey

    LABOUR
    ;-)

    (sadly, red text isn’t available)

  27. AMBIVALENTSUPPORTER
    `I can sort of agree with Smukesh`
    Thank you

  28. @LEFTY

    Maybe he’s thinking back to:

    The Elder
    The Younger

    :P

  29. @RIN

    Has he become a team player?
    —————————–
    Ken has certainly drawn huge support from Labour’s London activists; they are working harder & smarter for Ken than on any previous campaign.
    8-)

  30. Amber

    What I mean is…. Will ken say and do the things that are approved by the party leadership, will he be a yes man or will he be embarrassing ed at every turn. What’s his view on ed’s apparent U-turn on cuts(I know its not really a u-turn) at the moment no one cares, but if he becomes London mayor again the press will be asking and reporting on his views of labour policy. And if ken does some strange things(ok he doesn’t have form on this but what if :smile: ) will ed back him or will ed distance himself? And will ed look weak if the press runs with “out of control red ken” stories?

  31. Statgeek

    I’m sure that Oldnat isn’t that old, I’m sure that the only “pitt” he has ever known had coal in it

  32. @Martyn

    Thank you for a thoughtful response on the subject of the European Council on the previous thread.

    Richard

  33. RICHARD IN NORWAY
    `What I mean is…. Will ken say and do the things that are approved by the party leadership`
    You have a valid point there…Ken is going to say and do things which are going to embarass the leadership for sure…But his politics is more in sync with Milliband than Blair…And apart from the gaffes,he is a good administator and will govern effectively…He will also draw more attention to the cuts

  34. I still think that when it’s time to go to the polls, Johnson will be re-elected. This polling does however confirm that YG was no outlier, and that Johnson has a much harder fight on his hands than previously imagined.

  35. It is interesting that the poll was adjusted for turnout…The general understanding seems to be that low turnout favours Tories and high turnout favours Labour…Don`t know whether AW will agree

  36. We should of course take caution in this being a single poll, and could be an outlier (In any direction) that we can’t identify as unusual because of lack of regular polling for comparison. Unlike how we can compare sudden unexpected 5 point leads with the recent polling history, and ask questions about it.

  37. Newsnight looks interesting tonight with an item on the growth of China.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/9682710.stm

  38. Surely Paddick’s second preference votes come from Ken and Boris supporters who would prefer Paddick to the other guy. The fact that their first preference candidate is unlikeley to be eliminated doesn’t alter that logic.

    As for the people who gave their first and second preferences to the same candidate – isn’t that equivalent to expressing one preference? Not exactly the intended practise in SV voting system – but it doesn’t prove ignorance.

  39. Smukesh – it’s a bit of a myth. It comes from the fact that Labour voters normally tell pollsters they are less likely to vote than Conservative voters, therefore if you assume that on a low turnout only 10/10 voters vote, and on a high turnout voters who rate themselves at 5/10 or more vote, it would be true.

    We do not, however, have any evidence to support that hypothesis and it does assume that turnout sort of rises and falls evenly across the political spectrum. In reality, Labour voters could be become more likely to vote, Conservative voters could become less likely to vote, none of it is set in stone.

  40. @JAY BLANC
    I am delighted to agree with you. The 5 pointer can be perhaps confirmed or otherwise this evening. The small Labour lead for London mayor has been two in a row, but as you say needs more polling.

  41. ANTHONY WELLS
    Thanks for the clarification…I wonder why Labour supporters are less likely to say they are going to vote and conservative supporters more likely to say they are more likely to vote…Maybe Tory supporters feel it is part of their duty to cast their vote

  42. Chouenlai
    ‘What is it with you and the Tory press? Do you expect them to be nice to the leader of the Labour party? Have you read the Guardian or the Mirror ever, try to find one positive thing about the the Tories in them.’

    Its not just the left wing press. The Mail and telegraph, have seemed to have relented recently; however since the election they have consistently attacked the LDs and the Coalition and been very critical of DC, as well. But then they don’t think he is Tory.

  43. Allen

    Sounds like you are not a big fan of ken, or were you talking about Boris?

  44. SMukesh – that is indeed one of the reasons, though it’s mostly socio-economic.

  45. @smukesh
    This matter of blaming the press which supports your opponents, is the thinking of a morally defeated political party. I am not concerned about circulation, if the Mirror cannot sell as many of their rags, as Murdoch can sell of his red top rag, that is their problem. Likewise the Telegraph and the Guardian. On both sides, the moment a party or party leader becomes vulnerable, the opposing press pounce’s like hyena’s. It is not new, it is not different, it is the way it works for all major parties and politicians. For you and others to snivel about Miliband being attacked is pointless, better ask why? Furthermore, do you really, honestly , truthfully, not remember the anti Tory, anti Cameron and anti Clegg propaganda that has been forthcoming since May 2010 ?

  46. @SMUKESH

    “Maybe Tory supporters feel it is part of their duty to cast their vote”

    So what are the motivations for others parties?

  47. Richard in Norway.

    Correct I’m not a fan of Ken at all. He is very typical of the stale type of Labour MPs we have in Scotland…Grumpy, Lackluster, No Charisma, Grievance politics, weird and old fashioned.

    I wouldn’t say I’m a big fan of Boris but he engages with people and is not boring. . Why the financial capital of the world would vote for an eccentric left winged numpty like Ken is beyond comprehension. ;)

  48. “This matter of blaming the press which supports your opponents, is the thinking of a morally defeated political party. ”

    Or accusing the BBC of left wing bias and then chopping its budget ruthlessly to bring it into line when you get a seat in Government?

  49. “I wouldn’t say I’m a big fan of Boris but he engages with people and is not boring. . Why the financial capital of the world would vote for an eccentric left winged numpty like Ken is beyond comprehension”

    I love Red Ken. He clearly DOES engage with some people, just as Boris must do.

    Beyond comprehension?

  50. ‘Henry
    Thank you for your support on this Henry. You are of course dead right. I have taken the Telegraph for years and got very p….d of with the anti coalition rhetoric, right up to the veto. Now as you say they have calmed down a bit.

    Before the sophisticated arguments such as the one you raise about politics and the press, I just wish to put a stop to this whining about choosing the wrong leader, or at least allowing the unions to do it for them.

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