The full tables for YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times are now up here. As one might guess from five point Tory lead in voting intention, they are unremittingly dire for Ed Miliband.

On leader ratings David Cameron stands at minus 3 (from from 7 last week), Nick Clegg at minus 50 (from minus 49 last week) and Ed Miliband at minus 53, his worst so far and the first time he has dropped below Nick Clegg. Only 18% think Miliband is doing well, compared to 71% who think he is doing badly. Amongst Labour’s own supporters 50% now think Miliband is doing badly.

Asked if Labour had the right policies and the best leader for them, only 8% thought they had both. 31% think they have the right policies, but only 14% think they have the right leader. Even amongst the 31% who think they have the right policies (and are therefore must be somewhat well disposed towards them), three quarters think they don’t have the best leader for them. Only 24% of people, and only 26% of Labour’s own supporters, think that Miliband should lead the party into the next election.

Turning to Labour’s policies, YouGov asked how well people think they understand the Labour party’s position on the cuts. 37% say they understand it very (4%) or fairly well (37%). 54% say they don’t understand it well or don’t understand it at all. Asked about Labour’s decision to support the 1% cap on public sector pay rises, 50% said they agreed with the decision to not reverse the cap. Labour supporters were evenly split – 41% supporting the decision (and therefore the cap), 38% disagreeing with it.

As well as this there were a series of questions on the “Boris Island” airport, which generally speaking found people opposed to the idea by about 2 to 1. YouGov also found opposition to the idea of a new Royal Yacht – only 24% of people supported it, compared to 64% who were opposed (of the 24% who supported it, 62% thought the taxpayer should contribute, with 37% thinking it should be funded wholly from private funds)

Finally there were some questions on the Falkland Islands. 57% of people think they should remain British, 12% think they should be given to Argentina. Were the Islands to be invaded again today, 58% of people say they wouls support military action to defend them, 27% say they would oppose it.


191 Responses to “Full YouGov/Sunday Times report”

1 2 3 4
  1. @CHRIS TODD
    In addition, it would give Cameron another 5 years with a majority.

    On a serious note, they will not try violence. They will probably try everything short of violence, but no military action. The island is defended now and they will not attempt a landing in the face of entrenched defences.
    However, talk is cheap and fighting the Engleesi swine to the last drop of blood and last bullet will be the talking point in every Argy pub. But no action that hurts people.

  2. AMBERSTAR
    Also Labour`s share of Lib Dem 2010 vote has fallen from 39 to 4 in 2 days and Others` share of Lib Dem vote has gone up from 17 to 78 in 2 days…SOUNDS REMARKABLE

  3. @ Chris Todd

    “And the USA is much more supportive of Argentina now than it was back then”

    You obviously did not read in the press that US oil companies are looking to work with Rockhopper, who found 700 million barrels of oil off the north coast of the Falklands. One of the US companies has very senior ex government officials connected to it.

    So I am not sure the US would support Argentina. Other south American countries are apparently stopping any ships using their ports, if they have been working in the Falklands. So the chances are that it is more likely that South American countries will just make it difficult for companies to work in the Falklands. I guess that if they cannot use ports in the area, given the remote location, this would make it difficult to operate. e.g. supply chain, maintenance of ships.

  4. @ Old Nat

    You may well be right about this poll being a bit of a faux pas from YG! I think they need to withdraw & reissue the tables, & maybe even the poll itself.

    This poll weightings again (so all in the same comment):

    Labour 525 373
    Conser 509 595
    LibDem 194 477
    Others 40 211
    None/DK 70 29

    Weighting Data for previous poll (19th):

    Labour 500 569
    Conser 481 500
    LibDem 219 210
    Others 82 23
    None/DK 422 420

    Again, the SNP/ Plyd is missing, so back to the day before the above (18th):

    Labour 513 552
    Conser 457 484
    LibDem 212 204
    SNP/PC 28 29
    Others 80 20
    None/DK 409 408

    Honestly, does nobody ‘sanity check’ the tables before publishing?

  5. There`s no use further discussing this poll until the tables are cleared up…Lib Dem vote share is 1/1/1 from 2010 voters…Doesn`t make sense

  6. @ Smukesh

    Yes, I agree. If the tables & weightings data weren’t just messed up when converting from spreadsheet to .pdf for publishing, then the reported outcomes must be wrong.

    The weightings data is nuts compared to their own prior polls!
    8-)

  7. AMBERSTAR
    I believe that the Times has already taken the poll findings off site as they are now displaying the COMRES findings of neck and neck but this morning they were tellling us that Tories were 5 points in front…I can`t be sure as I don`t have access…Maybe AW will clarify

  8. Can anyone with access to The Times clarify whether the poll that they are displaying is the COM-RES or the corrected YOUGUV…Thanks

  9. PAUL H-J

    “The emphasis in the above sentence should be on “If people see”.”

    Therein lies the foundation of “spin”.

    That’s why I wrote it. It’s what politicians have done throughout the ages.

  10. I haven’t seen old Chou this excited since he caught a sight of Anne Widdicombe’s ankles in Strictly Come Dancing!

    What’s happened? Have the Tories taken the lead in an opinion poll? lol

  11. Amber – wouldn’t worry about that, the weighting data at the end is just an Excel template. If you use the wrong template as they have here, it links to the wrong cells and puts out the wrong data.

    I think they’re all down one (e.g. the weighted Con figure of 595 is actually the weighted Lab figure, the weighted LD figure of 477 is actually the weighted Con figure and so on.) It won’t have the slightest effect on the actual results – it’s just a case of using the wrong template when getting it ready for display online.

  12. ANTHONY WELLS
    Are Lib DEM figures right?…1/1/1 can`t be right

  13. Smukesh – the Times/Sunday Times website has articles up on both polls.

  14. Smukesh – no, it’s been discussed further up. I think the column labelled 2010 LD voters is actually 2010 *other* voters. Whoever did the formatting on Friday afternoon made some boo-boos.

  15. Anthony

    I know you are on leave, but presumably YG can’t leave such an error ridden set of tables in the public domain?

  16. @CROSSBAT
    Now we have AW’s reassurance, yes the Tories have got a lead. That does not get me remotely excited, since they have 3 years in which to loose it. I leave the mouth frothing over a 1% shift to you lot.

  17. @ Anthony

    Yes, that’s what I first assumed, that somebody just messed up the tables for publishing.
    8-)

  18. ANTHONY WELLS
    IN 2 days,32% of Lib Dem voters have now shifted allegiance from Labour to UKIP and SNP leaving Labour voteshare to fall from 39% to 4%…Unless footage emerges of Ed Milliband killing a child,this isn`t going to happen…I am going to wait for Monday`s poll am afraid

  19. @Smukesh

    “Unless footage emerges of Ed Milliband killing a child,this isn`t going to happen….”

    Haven’t you seen today’s Mail on Sunday?

  20. SMUKESH

    I think we just have to assume that these tables are to political polling as the summit of Cairngorm is to the Magnificent County of Kent. :-)

  21. CROSSBAT11
    `Haven’t you seen today’s Mail on Sunday?`
    That explains it :)

  22. Oldnat – I expect we’ll get a corrected version up tomorrow. (for the sake of clarification, that means correctly showing a cross break for 2010 LD voters, and using the right template to display the weighting data. As far as I can tell the actual figures are all correct, so the 5 point lead isn’t going to change)

  23. How can I display my political affiliation, like others, when I comment?

    Thanks

  24. Ahhhh, sorry to hear that folks.

  25. Old Nat,

    I think a qualification is required….

    “It’s what…[Good / successful]…politicians have done throughout the ages.”

    In that context it is worth asking how often has a prominent politician maanged to reinvent him/herself successfully ?

    If one looks solely at success in presenting a new image convincingly one can think of quite a few. Most obvious is Michael Portillo, but Bercow is another. I am sure regular posters here will quickly add many others.

    However, how many went on to be more successful after their reinvention than before ? Bercow, but also Darling.

    How many went from being prominent before their reinvention, completely changed their image, and then went on to be more successful ? I struggle. Examples welcomed.

    Thus Ed M has a serious problem.

    Paul

  26. Anthony

    Thanks. I was assuming that the headline number was probably correct, but that the tables had errors. (I remember making a similar error myself, and having to scurry round clients, grovelling deeply and providing them with a discount on their next commission. (News International please note – you are going to need to save every penny you can)!

    The Tory 5 point lead doesn’t seem so far out of line with the recent trend. As always, the actual numbers don’t matter greatly. It’s the direction of travel that is important.

  27. @CROSSBAT & SMUKESH
    I will not have a wonderful newspaper rubbished.
    The actual story is that one Egbert Millibond of Hemel Hempstead, (not Hampsted) placed a kitten in his dust bin. The mistaken identity has resulted in a Labour 10 point lead being over turned

  28. ANTHONY WELLS
    OLDNAT
    Sure the trend has been this way…Glad that AW has clarified and would be interesting to see who is actually getting the Lab vote…If it`s Greens and SNP,I wouldn`t be too worried rather than Lab-Con

  29. PAUL H-J

    Or “It’s what all politicians have tried to do throughout the ages.” Some are successful. Others aren’t.

    In a few cases, the politicians actually are telling the truth.

  30. @ Chris Todd

    “And the USA is much more supportive of Argentina now than it was back then”

    I’m not entirely sure about that.

    I think the fact that Argentina is now a fully functioning democracy makes it even less likely that they will use military force to annex the Falklands.

  31. TIMOTHY

    Hover your mouse over your user name at the top left.

    Select “Edit my Profile”. Then select “Extended Profile” (if you can’t see that option, you’ll need to do a “pretty please” to Anthony). Pick your party from the drop down list.

  32. @ Old Nat

    “Well, one of them is running Scotland – with high approval ratings! :)”

    I think it might make him more relatable to folks.

    That or Scots might not as shallow as others.

  33. CHOUENLAI
    `The actual story is that one Egbert Millibond of Hemel Hempstead, (not Hampsted) placed a kitten in his dust bin. The mistaken identity has resulted in a Labour 10 point lead being over turned`
    Have you ever tried your hand at stand-up?

  34. “I think the fact that Argentina is now a fully functioning democracy makes it even less likely that they will use military force to annex the Falklands.”

    It’s not all a rosy picture in Argentina as far as I know. Economy, there, is in a bad shape and there is still high levels of corruption at the government level. Having said that, the scrapping of our aircraft carrier, harriers, reconnaissance aircraft etc by David Cameron have not gone unnoticed in Buenos Aires. They also know, from 1982, that NATO, in particular the US, will not directly intervene. These factors have all increased the likelihood of a military confrontation and I doubt that unless some of the defence cuts are reversed, we are capable of sending a naval task force and retake those islands.

  35. Smukesh

    ” Have you ever tried your hand at stand-up?”

    That’s cruel, what do you think he is doing, just because you have had a humor bypass……… The rest of us appreciate Roland’s anti-Ben elton gag

  36. SoCalLiberal

    ” Scots might not as shallow as others.”

    How dare you suggest that we can’t be as shallow as anyone else! :-)

  37. @ Social Liberal

    I do feel sorry for US voters. The republican candidates for President are a bit of a joke. The way they conduct themselves with negative briefings being issued. I see Romney has been pressured into releasing his tax returns and there were allegations of money held offshore.

    I bet Obama is having a good laugh at their expense. I haven’t seen much of him lately, so presume he is keeping a low profile to allow the media to fully cover the divisions within the republicans.

  38. RICHARD IN NORWAY
    You are right…I enjoy his humour too but with the Labour dip in fortunes,just wanted to stop the anti-Labour bashing just or a bit

  39. @mactavish
    I don’t think we have met before, completely agree with your post. If you are new, welcome.

  40. “I bet Obama is having a good laugh at their expense. I haven’t seen much of him lately, so presume he is keeping a low profile to allow the media to fully cover the divisions within the republicans.”

    The Democrats themselves were torn, right down the middle, between Clinton and Obama in the 2008 primaries. In the end, Obama relied on superdelegates to win the democratic nomination. At times, the democratic campaign did get nasty. One could argue, though, long primaries help the frontrunner to avoid receiving direct hits from their opponents. Overall, I think it’s just the way the elections are run in the US and has nothing to do with republicans or democrats.

  41. @CHEOUNLAI

    I commented as ‘Timothy’ before creating an account. Nice to meet you all.

  42. MacTavish,

    Whilst I am very uncomfortable with the extent of the cuts to the forces (no carriers, smaller navy than Thailand etc), I think a future defence of the Falklands would rest on the defences (including aircraft) based on the islands, and our submarine fleet.

    The Argentine flotilla would have to be quite substantial, to deliver a ground force that wouldn’t be shredded on arrival. It would be rich pickings for our subs and our land-based aircraft I think.

  43. R Huckle,

    “I do feel sorry for US voters. The republican candidates for President are a bit of a joke. The way they conduct themselves with negative briefings being issued. I see Romney has been pressured into releasing his tax returns and there were allegations of money held offshore.

    I bet Obama is having a good laugh at their expense. I haven’t seen much of him lately, so presume he is keeping a low profile to allow the media to fully cover the divisions within the republicans.”

    I totally agree. I am sure the Tories are currently thinking the same about Labour.

  44. I think the Tory lead is down to dog=whistle stuff on immigrants claiming benefits.

  45. “Whilst I am very uncomfortable with the extent of the cuts to the forces (no carriers, smaller navy than Thailand etc), I think a future defence of the Falklands would rest on the defences (including aircraft) based on the islands, and our submarine fleet.”

    I’m not a military expert but I don’t know, without a carrier, how we can deploy those air crafts quickly in the event of a flash invasion.

  46. The Scottish Westminster polls have been very interesting to look at of late. The SNP are of course doing well in them but so are the ….Tories… Yes, this is the third poll I’ve seen in the past, say, two months that has them above 20%. If they are so ‘dead in the water’ why is this happening…? Any ideas? Seriously, I’m intrigued.

    P.S. It’s all the SECOND poll I’ve seen that has them level-pegging with Labour in Scotland!

  47. @Calum Smith

    May I ask which poll you are referring to?

  48. The YouGov weekly polls, including in fact the one here. Look at the full table, the Scottish part of them is on the right.

  49. CALUM SMITH

    The mantra here of “Don’t look at the Scottish (or any other) cross tabs” on VI in individual polls is well founded.

    Even Statgeek’s accumulated data from them can only be indicative.

    Real Scottish polls have also indicated a rise in the Tory support at the expense of the LDs, SNP and Labour support have also risen at their expense.

    I don’t find that surprising. The evidence from 2011 was that the LDs haemorrhaged to all of them then, with a simultaneous shift from Con/Lab to the SNP.

    What the effect on Westminster voting in 2015 may be massively shifted by the referendum, so speculation isn’t terribly useful (though often fun0 at the moment.

  50. @Old Nat

    But why have the former Lib Dems not ALL gone over to the SNP or Labour like they did in the Holyrood election? (I’m guessing that some Labour supporters switched to SNP, accounting for the fall/stagnation in their vote). It seems odd that the Tories would benefit at all, given what happened last May. I haven’t seen any Holyrood polls showing ANY rise in Tory support by the way, could you give an example if it isn’t too much bother?

1 2 3 4