Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%. During the week we had a poll showing the parties neck and neck, and then two showing narrow Conservative leads, suggesting the underlying picture is a the Conservatives and Labour tying.

It’s interesting to ponder the reason for this. It is a lasting effect from David Cameron’s European veto in December, possibly because it is has improved perceptions of Cameron himself as a strong leader? Or alternatively has the European veto effect faded, but been replaced by a negative polling impact from Labour’s troubles, with much media discussion of the problems facing Ed Miliband?

I’ll do a proper write up of the Sunday Times poll tomorrow. Tonight there is also an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph covering Scottish Independence (I have no idea whether it includes voting intention).


110 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 38, LAB 40, LD 9”

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  1. @Hal – that Labour ‘plan’ is a bit tired and lacking in focus. It misses the central need for investment. We currently have companies sitting of record piles of cash – that’s right – we’re in a depression of a sort, but companies have absolutely huge cash deposits that they are too afraid to invest.

    If Labour had a 6th point that included a large but time limited incentive tp invest in the next 2 years to use the £70b of company reserves to drive both short and long term growth, they might be getting somewhere.

    I would also drop the bank bonus tax – that’s a gimmick – and legislate to regulate city fees. That would provide an enormous boost to pensions, meaning action could be taken to switch pension tax relief to capital investment while still improving people’s overall pensions.

  2. @SMukesh – “…old videos of prime ministers”

    There was an interesting discussion of the abstract way he frames his sentences… at first it seems like minor nit-picking, but there may be something in it:

    h
    ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2012/jan/10/ed-miliband-speak-today-programme

    @chrislane1945 – “David Miliband to.. come back to the front bench as shadow chancellor”

    There were reports Ed’s team, in a flap after winning the leadership, insisted that David “must” take the shadow chancellor post to keep Balls away… in the event Alan Johnson got the post – and it was offered again to David when Alan resigned.

    There have been instances of siblings/partners in cabinet before – but a potential PM *and* chancellor from one family?

  3. @lefty lampton
    At the risk of “going all Rolandesque”, I humbly submit that Balls has failed dismally. Now, I think he is a failed economist already, so as ever, don’t listen to me. However, the abundant clarity of the faithful in Guardian and Indie could hardly be exaggerated.

    Last evening Smukesh manfully brushed aside these left wing chattering classes ? He referred to them as “Little Englanders”, this has left me confused of Buckingham, as I thought I was a Little Englander.

  4. @R Huckle,

    I noticed the alcohol cross breaks too. Interesting that the more drunk you are, the more Tory you get.

  5. @ Neil A

    “I noticed the alcohol cross breaks too. Interesting that the more drunk you are, the more Tory you get.”

    ********* Partisan comment alert **************

    Sums up Tory voters, drunk or senile or both. (joke)

  6. R Huckle/Neil A,

    I just assumed the alcohol cross breaks confirmed that Tory voters were, as with the deficit, less likely to be “in denial” ;-)

  7. @ SoCaL

    Uh-oh, I hope I didn’t start some sort of conflict again. I think 500 isn’t a great sample size but it’s not terrible. Should I get out my peace picture for you two again?
    ————————————————-
    :-) That’s everso kind, thank you :-)

  8. Fascinating alcohol consumption figures.

    We already knew that the only group in the country who consistently backed the Tories were the elderly. Now it appears that they are all half cut as well.

    Is it really good for democracy to have elections decided by senile sits who think we are still fighting the War?

  9. IPhone again. Sits=sots

  10. It is interesting how quickly the Tories can get excited about things.

    I hink we need to remember we are 3 years off from the next election campaign starting and there will be many unknown events happening before then that are going to influence that

    One of the most minor will be the opposition chancellor stating that they will need to respond to the decisions of the current Government if they take power in 2015.

    Personally, I think it is a mistake as the media are virtually all pro-Government (and if not pro then not rocking the boat) at the moment and so we can see any announcement of anything concrete will either be jumped on as ‘denial’ or ‘u-turn’.

    If we looked back at the Cameron announcements when he became leader on economic issues (deregulation, matching Government spending, inheritance tax) how many of them are relevant now!

    The Government are promising to cut too much too soon (although in reality they are probably still closer to Labour’s election position than their own – the main cuts will be felt in 2012-2013) in my view but what can I, or Labour, do about it. We just will have to live with the consequences.

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