The Sun have already tweeted tonight’s daily polling figures from YouGov. Topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, the first time YouGov have shown a Conservative lead this month.

All my usual caveats apply – sure, it could be a reflection of the troubled time and bad press Ed Miliband has had of late (certainly the best Prime Minister figures in today’s poll are cutting, with Cameron leading by 41% to Miliband’s 17%), but it could equally just be normal variation within the margin of error. Let’s wait and see if it is sustained.


652 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 40% LAB 38% LD 10%”

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  1. @ Bill Patrick

    “One of the problems with associating Mitch Daniels with the deficit under Bush is that- even if you’re willing to buy the idea that he somehow had grand control of the administration’s economic strategy- the deficit is not controlled by the Presidency. The budgets submitted involved cuts to match the tax-cuts, but the US constitution doesn’t give administrations control over spending, hence Congress stopped the cuts.

    What do you mean by “removed oversight of the markets”? Would that be the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act? Or the policy of the Federal Reserve under Bush?”

    Gramm-Leach-Bliley is not to blame for what occurred. In fact, it allowed some convenient mergers after the crisis so that some failing companies could be merged together. Now I’m not opposed to bringing back Glass-Steagall but I think it’s kind of a side show. Dubya put Chris Cox in charge of the SEC. Now let me say that Cox is my favorite Republican because he’s the most intelligent of all of them. But he doesn’t believe in financial oversight and let Wall Street run wild during his his tenure. Dubya got rid of his predecessor, William Donaldson, because of Wall Street complaints that Donaldson was enforcing securities laws and not letting traders and financiers do whatever they pleased.

    There’s no need to lecture me about my own government works. Dubya got pretty much everything he wanted from a conservative Republican Congress that was lockstep behind him for 6 years. This included the budgets he wanted along with the massive tax cuts and massive spending increases he wanted. He also used the reconcilation process heavily in order to avoid Democratic filibusters. Simple fact that no conservative ideologue can change. When Bill Clinton left office, we had budget surpluses, when Dubya left office, we had massive budget deficits. What caused those deficits were a combination of increased spending and massive tax cuts (mostly to the wealthy) that Dubya proposed, endorsed, and signed into law.

    “All very good with me. I’m not a Keynesian: Rubinomics was a great move by Clinton and was a key part of the economic successes of 1993-2000.”

    As Bill Clinton so eloquently explained, the economic policies that were neccessary in the early 1990’s are not what are needed to expand the economy today.

    “I don’t think we’re talking about the same person.”

    Screaming by a bunch of conservative lunatics and catered to by Republican political hacks does not make someone controversial. ANY leading Democrat is going to become someone they hate no matter what that Democrat does. Richard Nixon had a good saying, usually the louder a group screams, the usually smaller a minority they are. Teabaggers and Birthers and other lunatics are not representative of views. And no, he’s not controversial simply because of the color of his skin.

  2. SoCalLiberal,

    “Gramm-Leach-Bliley is not to blame for what occurred. In fact, it allowed some convenient mergers after the crisis so that some failing companies could be merged together. Now I’m not opposed to bringing back Glass-Steagall but I think it’s kind of a side show. Dubya put Chris Cox in charge of the SEC. Now let me say that Cox is my favorite Republican because he’s the most intelligent of all of them. But he doesn’t believe in financial oversight and let Wall Street run wild during his his tenure. Dubya got rid of his predecessor, William Donaldson, because of Wall Street complaints that Donaldson was enforcing securities laws and not letting traders and financiers do whatever they pleased.”

    And this was an OMB matter?

    “There’s no need to lecture me about my own government works. Dubya got pretty much everything he wanted from a conservative Republican Congress that was lockstep behind him for 6 years. This included the budgets he wanted along with the massive tax cuts and massive spending increases he wanted. He also used the reconcilation process heavily in order to avoid Democratic filibusters. Simple fact that no conservative ideologue can change. When Bill Clinton left office, we had budget surpluses, when Dubya left office, we had massive budget deficits. What caused those deficits were a combination of increased spending and massive tax cuts (mostly to the wealthy) that Dubya proposed, endorsed, and signed into law.”

    But the issue was Mitch Daniels’ role in the first 29 months of the Bush presidency. The simple fact is that the proposed offsetting cuts didn’t go through Congress.

    “As Bill Clinton so eloquently explained, the economic policies that were neccessary in the early 1990?s are not what are needed to expand the economy today.”

    I disagree, but we’re getting off topic.

    “Screaming by a bunch of conservative lunatics and catered to by Republican political hacks does not make someone controversial.”

    Yes it does. And the simple statistical evidence is that, of all the possible 2012 presidents, Barack Obama is the one that- on average- Americans see as being furthest from their political views:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/151814/americans-huntsman-romney-paul-closest-ideologically.aspx

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