Looking back at 2011
In terms of polling 2011 has been almost static. In the last Parliament we were rather spoilt in terms of volatility, seeing the Conservatives move ahead after the election of David Cameron, then the Brown boost putting Labour briefly ahead until the election-that-never-was burst the bubble, then a second Labour recovery after the bank bailout. Even in 2010 there was significant movement as Lib Dem support fractured and support for the government’s cuts programme ebbed away. In contrast the story of 2011 has been one of stagnation.
In terms of voting intention, in YouGov’s daily tracker Labour have maintained a steadyish five point lead throughout most of the year. There have been a few ups and downs, with the Labour lead temporarily widening to six, seven points or more in the Spring and after Hackgate in July, but most of the time voting intentions have rumbled onwards regardless of day-to-day politics.
The biggest exception was the impact of David Cameron’s veto at the European summit, which put the Conservatives briefly back ahead of Labour. As daily polling paused for Christmas the polls were still showing Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck – it remains to be seen whether this does have any lasting effect. The veto itself will, in all likelihood, fade from memory as things like the economy and public services resume their normal place at the top of the political agenda, but if the veto permanently impacts how people see David Cameron and his leadership there is a possibility of a longer term impact.
Economic optimism has remained resolutely dire throughout the entire year. Confidence in the government’s economic policy and support for the cuts rapidly fell in 2010, but since then have largely flatlined.
The proportion of people thinking that the cuts are too deep or too fast has actually fallen slightly (“too deep” has gone from around 50% in February to around 42-43% now; “too fast” has gone from around 58% to around 48%), but the balance of opinion that the cuts are bad for the economy remains largely unchanged. More positively for the government people continue to think the cuts are necessary, and despite the passage of time there is little further change in the proportion of people who blame the Labour party for the cuts.
Where there has been more movement this year is in perceptions of the leaders themselves. David Cameron’s ratings remain the most positive of the three main party leaders but have been on a downwards trend, interupted by peaks after the local elections and the European veto. The latter saw significant increases in the proportion of people who thought Cameron was a strong leader who is good in a crisis and sticks to what he believes in, but it remains to be seen if it endures.
Ed Miliband’s figures have also been on a downwards trend, even while his party has been ahead in the polls. His decline was dramatically reversed by his response to Hackgate, but this faded away again leaving him languishing in the the minus thirties. Nick Clegg has the worst ratings of all, though they appear to have bottomed out after the defeat in the AV referendum. He suffered a sharp downturn after the European veto, but this was largely the result of Conservative supports, a minority of whom normally give Clegg good ratings, becoming far more negative about him.
Those are the figures, I’ll try to have a bit of broader rumination of the political situation at the end of 2011 over the next few days.
Anthony has put a new thread up: Historical Polls
Amber
Thanks for the advice. I’ll be sure to pass it onto Alex.
@ Old Nat
I told him already; thanks anyway.
hal @ Oldnat and others
“The eurozone is attempting to evolve towards a single nation to avoid the currency instability problem. Wouldn’t it be ironic for a nationalist movement to sign up for that?”
No.
You assume Scots are opposed to a Union per se. We are opposed to an unfair and unbalance Union in which Government for and by one part [middle England] is culpably ignorant of the issues and values of one part of the union.
They do not mean to treat us badly. They do not understand. Scottish Nationalism isn’t like English anti-EU Nationalism. There are many things wrong with the EU, but it is a more equal union than the one we are in despite huge disparities in size and wealth.
chrislane1945 @ OLD NAT.
“England and Scotland will find a way of living together within the European Union and our own common borders and coastlines.”
No the won’t. If Scotland separates, r-UK will leave the EU and we will have to build a physical border.
@ John B Dick
The EU/ EZ: 1 Country, 1 Vote?
Richard
@”Most MP’s were guilty of some abuse of expenses, but it would be unfair to tar them all with the same brush?”
Even if that is true-they weren’t all guilty of serious abuse-remember that the rules were very lax.
But I’m not going to defend MPs on expenses abuse-except the 233 new ones who entered Parliament in 2010.
Other than that I would just point out that Wiki lists the most serious as :-
Cabinet & Ministerial resignations-6
Backbencher resignations/standing down -16
There were 6 cases of criminal charges.
@”Very few benefit claimants are workshy or fraudulent but its ok to tar them all with the same brush?”
Are there numbers available for those for whom work is less rewarding than benefit?
I haven’t seen any-but have always made the assumption that the huge expense & effort being put into the upcoming Universal Credit was thought worthwhile in terms of welfare to work potential.
With regard to Benefit Fraud DWP website provides this data :-
“Total number of cases referred to LA fraud investigation section has increased by 4.7% to 264,150 cases
Total number of cases closed has decreased by 0.8% to 156,265
Total number of cases closed with a DWP benefit interest increased by 4.7% to 15,270 cases and represents 9.8% of all cases closed
Total number of cautions offered and accepted has increased by 6.1% to 13,665 and represents 8.7% of cases that have been closed
Total number of admin penalties offered and accepted has reduced by 5.2% to 7,065 and represents 4.5% of cases that have been closed
Total number of admin penalties offered and accepted with a DWP benefit interest has increased by 5.7% to 280 cases and represents 4% of all admin penalties
Total number of cases accepted for prosecution has increased by 11.5% to 7,350 cases
Total number of cases accepted for prosecution with a DWP benefit interest has increased by 29.6% to 1,400 cases and represents 19% of all cases accepted for prosecution
Total number of prosecutions resulting in guilty outcomes has increased by 16.9% to 7,510 cases and represents 4.8% of cases that have been closed
Total number of prosecutions resulting in guilty outcomes with a DWP benefit interest has increased by 23.3% to 1,400 cases and represents 18.6% of all successful prosecutions”
DWP-24/08/11
The data relates SOLELY to HB. I can’t find any other data at present.
@JOHN B DICK
You seem to be suggesting that the English should elect Labour or LD/Labour coalition governments, into perpetuity, to please Scotland. You represent 8% of the population. If the majority of English decide to vote Tory, because, as I say in my previous post 30 minuets ago, they are more in tune with Tory values, that is our business. You have your own (massively expensive) parliament, it strikes me, you are never satisfied.
CHOUENLAI
@”it strikes me, you are never satisfied.”
Not long to wait Chou-2014 apparently-then they will all charge off over the heather , baring their painted *rse* & waving their tartaned willys, to hopefully leave the rest of us in peace.
You begin to understand how Hadrian felt when he said “Oh for gods sake , just build a sodding wall right across”
CHOUENLAI
That you didn’t understand John Dick’s post is a nice affirmation of his accuracy.
Chou.
Now, far be it from me to suggest that Joe and Jo Public are to the Left of Enver Hoxha. But if they are as virulently ANTI-left as you persistently claim, the Tories ought to be castigating themselves for having enjoyed only three brief periods of >40% VI since Ben Johnson stopped taking steroids and Gazza first pulled on an England shirt.
@ Chouey, Colin, Old Nat, John B
It’s sometimes necessary to remind people that separatists are a minority in Scotland! So we may not be scampering off over the heather come 2014.
Interestingly, the ‘willy-waving’ thing, has a grain of truth to it. Men are more in favour of independence & bigger ‘fans’ of Alex than women are.
Colin
Have you worked out the %s
@COLIN
All we have to lose is homeless drunks sleeping in doorways, I am sure we can provide our own.
@ OLD NAT
Perhaps you should revert to Gaelic, then Dick’s comments would be totally beyond understanding to the likes of me. Right now, the more you people whine, the more we lose interest.
@LEFTY LAMPTON
I did not say that the great unwashed are virulently anti left.
I merely said they are quite happy with a number of current
government policies. That is all I said and all I meant. The fact that the polling results we see on this excellent site confirm my comment, is pretty much in line with most of my comments.
chouenlai @ JOHN B DICK
“You seem to be suggesting that the English should elect Labour or LD/Labour coalition governments, into perpetuity, to please Scotland.”
No I’m not.
I am suggesting that they appoint ministers who know something of devolution, Scottish history, values, culture, religion and above all sparsity, geography and topography.
I am suggesting that they do not lecture us about supposed policy solutions to solve problems we do not have based on political dogma and which are inappropriate to a surreal degree in Scottish conditions
“You have your own (massively expensive) parliament, it strikes me, you are never satisfied.”
It isn’t expensive. The building was.
Architectually it is distinctive. Some like it, others don’t. I havn’t ben inside yet.
If the parliament works as intended and that is aided rather than hindered by the building, then we got value for money even if there was waste. It is inconceivable that the French or most other nations would be concerned about the cost and only one such building in any country in my lifetime has ever be allowed to fall into disrepair even if disused.
The parliament is much more efficient because it is unicameral. I think there are 34 ways in which it differs from the UK parliament.
Over half a century ago I complained to a school friend then known as THE GANNETT and more recently as The Father of the Nation, about ALL the failures of the UK parliament ever complained of on this board.
He told me of his vision of the Home Rule Parliament which would remedy these failures. 44 years later the parliament opened exactly as I had been told, and he was the first First Minister.
It works exactly as intended.
Do not beleve the nonsence about keeping the SNP from having a majority. In the mid 1950′s the SNP were where the Greens are today, and no threat to the Conservative dominance of Scotland.
One objective of many in the voting system, and by no means the most important one, was that any majority of MP’s which voted legislation into statute would have the support of a majority of electors.
If that target is missed, it isn’t a bad miss, we won’t know for centuries whether it is frequently missed. It would not be missed if Conservatives abstain or Greens vote with the SNP, which does happen.
On the crudest measure the SNP at 44% do not have a majority of the list vote alone. I don’t think anyone has done the arithmetic properly.
Amber
Since three quarters of Scots polled, want most powers outwith Defence and Foreign Affairs to be handled separately from rUK, and presuming that you are using the word “separatists” to mean people who want separate governance, there doesn’t seem much evidence to support your assertion.
@Old nat
I suppose that an independent Scotland and rUK would start out with the same debt profile as the UK currently; this is somewhat worse than France and Spain, not too dissimilar to Portugal and somewhat better than Italy. These eurozone countries are in varying degrees of financial distress and the consensus is that their position although supported by the ECB in the short term is not stable in the long term without major institutional changes which will limit their sovereignity over financial matters.
The UK debt position is a long way from that of Finland, which has much lower debt and a very low deficit. I don’t see any plausible way of turning the Scottish position into that.
Numbers are on eurostat.
Denmark is not a member of the eurozone as it has its own currency, and that makes a crucial difference. Same with the UK. Neither country has a problem with its debt level and as I said before, if independent Scotland introduces its own currency then it should not have a problem either.
@ Old Nat
Check again: As far as I’m aware, there’s never been more than 38% in favour of Independence. The SNP will have to work hard between now & 2014, if they want to ‘win’ the referendum.
@ Old Nat
I’m using ‘separatist’ to refer to those who want to be separate from the rest of the Uk. Similar to the way unionist is used about those who don’t; although I agree with Cllr Cairns, in that I always do a ‘double-take’ when unionist is used because I immediately think of Ireland. Then I recalibrate & move on because it doesn’t bother me over-much.
HAL
You make my point admirably.
You don’t get much more peripheral in the EZ than Finland. What you are referring to is that countries which borrowed too much are in deep trouble.
Correctly you now include the UK among these troubled countries.
Independence, like Union, is a gradual process. Disentangling ourselves from the UK’s profligacy will take time. Using sterling during that process makes sense. How long that continues depends on “events, dear boy, events.”
Amber
But we both agree on the numbers. We could hardly do anything else. Its the words that we differ on.
I’m happy to go with what the majority of Scots want. Currently, that has moved much more towards my position.
I have no idea how that relates to yours, since you prefer not to specify any positive statement as to which areas of governance you wish to see exercised in Scotland. All I know is what you are against.
@ Old Nat
I know is that the SNP are against Westminster but pro-EU/EZ. I have never read a convincing, positive article about why Brussels is Good & London is Bad.
Amber
This isn’t 1066! Neither is necessarily a “Good Thing” or a “Bad Thing”.
There are advantages and disadvantages to any Union. However, one in which all sovereignty is removed from the people and transferred to politicians predominantly elected by a single large neighbour is an unwise arrangement.
I understand that you will disagree since you identify yourself as predominantly “British” in terms of the state you want to be part of.
The choice of which demos is predominant is a rather large gulf between us, though in most other things our views are pretty similar.
@ Old Nat
I’m happy to go with what the majority of Scots want. Currently, that has moved much more towards my position.
—————————-
The SNP has been relentless in suggesting that a ‘best of both worlds’ scenario should be available, where Scotland can take what it wants from the UK & leave the rest. Of course that is attractive. There is just one problem: It’s not within the SNP’s gift.
What do we call politicians who offer things they can’t deliver? LibDems
Joking aside, neither Westminster nor the SNP can offer ‘Devo-Max’ because it is untenable, logistically & politically.
I am sure that there would be overwhelming support from Uk voters for a policy where the Uk cherry-picked what it wanted from multi-national institutions (the EU, UN, IMF, NATO etc). But it isn’t available, so whether it’s what they’d choose, were it on offer, is irrelevant.
You may choose to say that most Scots agree with you in wanting something which doesn’t exist, I’ll stick with reality: Most Scots are not pro-Independence.
@ Oldnat
I think you have completely misunderstood my post!
I don’t think the UK is profligate; in fact its debt position is perfectly sustainable.
However the same debt position for a country without its own currency is unsustainable.
So if Scotland goes from part of the UK to an independent country but using Bank of England pounds as currency, its financial position goes from sustainable to unsustainable (i.e. bust) overnight.
Amber
See. We agree on lots of things, like the LDs!
However, the SNP isn’t saying that Scots can unilaterally define the terms of a Union. To suggest that is just you being naughty.
It does say, however, that it’s reasonable that the Scots people should be able to have a voice in their preferred option, even if that is different the SNP’s own preference.
Again we are back to that demos thing, and where sovereignty ultimately lies. We think it lies with the Scottish people. You think it lies with “the Queen in Parliament”.
It’s fairly clear, from the polling, what the constitutional preference of most Scots is – and no party is advocating that! All of the parties on your side of the debate are reluctant to move towards the people’s choice. (Which, no doubt, explains why none of them are the people’s choice.)
I am unclear as to why none of the Unionist parties see the clear political advantage in moving towards what Scots actually want, regardless of whether or not they see representing the people’s wishes as a good thing or not.
Incidentally, can you suggest why the other parts of the UK would have a problem with some kind of fiscal autonomy structure for a Scotland within the UK?
My turn to offer advice to other parties – If they are just anti-independence, and not offering suggestions as to how the Union could be reconfigured to ensure its survival, they are politically inept.
However, I suppose the reality is that all you conservatives just dislike change.
Amber
@”t’s sometimes necessary to remind people that separatists are a minority in Scotland! So we may not be scampering off over the heather come 2014″
No need-I know that.
But they are not a minority here -sadly
I suppose they may not be come the day , in Scotland either?
Richard
@”Have you worked out the %s”
Which ones Richard ?
CHOU
Your post about the response to Council House sub letting is wonderful. Until Labour start to gain some inkling of the public attitude on things like this -we have a chance
When this goes through I think Mr Crow is going to be a bit unhappy about his rent.
@ Chouey,
Off to the naughty-step with you! And quite right too.
@ Colin
Local authorities have always had the power to rescind tenancies where there is evidence of unauthorized sub-letting. I do not see what all the excitement is about.
Amber.
Thanks.
I must say that I haven’t looked at this in detail yet.
But as I understand it, the proposal is to make sub-letting of council houses illegal. My question would be , why was it ever permissable? If you don’t need the accomodation, why do you need the tenancy-particularly when lots of others do
HAL
Sorry, I think your post makes no sense at all.
On profligacy, we can agree to differ over whether spending money on WMD and a couple of aircraft carriers is profligacy or not.
However, being “bust” means having insufficient resources to pay your debts. Of course, we will inherit a pro-rata share of UK Government debts and assets.
Your post seems to assume that a sovereign Scotland would be unable to pay its way if we were still using Sterling.
Certainly, if the markets downgraded sterling because they doubted the ability of rUK to pay up, then we would rapidly move to our own currency. That’s the good thing about independence. We get to make the best choices for ourselves.
@ Old Nat
Incidentally, can you suggest why the other parts of the UK would have a problem with some kind of fiscal autonomy structure for a Scotland within the UK?
——————————————-
Yes, I can. Scotland & the South have, up until now, been fortunate enough to have the lion’s share of natural &/or man-made resources.
To ring fence regions at a time of their own choosing & thereby ignore the inherent unfairness of nature & history, it is unjust. The union has gone some way to achieving a culture of common endeavour & I believe it is worthwhile, just for that.
Perhaps, like the EU/EZ, our United Kingdom may have strayed in the wrong direction from time to time, or too often chosen stability over reform. Does that mean we should encourage the stronger regions to abandon the rest, when it no longer suits them to be part of a union? I think we should not.
Amber
But I have suggested, previously, here that a fiscally autonomous Scotland within the UK should continue to contribute to a fund to support the nations less endowed.
As an independent member of the EU we would be contributing to that very purpose. If we are to remain in the UK, similar provision would be appropriate. Further subsidising London and SE England wouldn’t be of course.
I really don’t understand your narrow nationalism that such support should be restricted to the current UK. Doesn’t your socialism extend to aiding others outwith your own petty little state?
@ Colin
But as I understand it, the proposal is to make sub-letting of council houses illegal. My question would be , why was it ever permissable? If you don’t need the accomodation, why do you need the tenancy-particularly when lots of others do
—————————————
Does ‘get on your bike’ ring any bells?
Sub-letting was actively encouraged by many administrations when LA accomodation was unavailable in the area where they could find work.
To give up a LA house in e.g. Glasgow & take up work in London would have meant the family qualified as being homeless. Thus the incoming authority would have been required to house them.
Therefore, LAs were prevailed upon to allow sub-letting. This encouraged the movement of labour without said labour being able to say it was homeless & required accomodation from the LA into which it moved to take up work.
Colin
The % of parliamentarians caught with their fingers in the till as opposed to the % of benefit claimants caught doing the same. Leaving aside that the rules as you admit are lax for MPs
Colin
Housing Law is different in Scotland, so there may be variations from the English experience.
Here, houses can normally be sub-let (with written permission) for up to 6 months under certain circumstances – eg working away from home, or needing to live elsewhere to care for a relative.
If the law has been sloppily written for England & Wales, there may be a need for some reform.
Oldnat
Do you have any idea of the levels of household debt, corporate debt and financial debt in Scotland as % of GDP?
@ Old Nat
I really don’t understand your narrow nationalism that such support should be restricted to the current UK. Doesn’t your socialism extend to aiding others outwith your own petty little state?
———————-
Stawman alert!
Amber
Thanks
I didn’t know that the background to it.
Richard
@”The % of parliamentarians caught with their fingers in the till as opposed to the % of benefit claimants caught doing the same. Leaving aside that the rules as you admit are lax for MPs”
Ah I see.
THe MPs looks to be about 5% in those Wiki categories.
As for the HB numbers-there are around 5m claimants. So that “cases referred” number of 264k is about 5% too-though the numbers brought to prosecution seems tiny.
I still haven’t found numbers for proven fraud in the rest of the benefit system.
RiN
Interesting question. I’m not sure that the figures have been collected in that way, but I’m looking.
On personal debt, I found this from 2009
“The R3 quarterly personal debt snapshot is based on a survey of 2,052 adults in Scotland, England and Wales. It found that 24 out of 178 respondents in Scotland (13%) took on more debt such as through credit cards, loans and increased overdrafts in the last few months compared with 213 respondents (11%) from the rest of Britain.
The report also showed that 77 out of 178 respondents in Scotland (43%) often or sometimes struggle to make it to payday, lower than the 932 out of 1,874 respondents (50%) in England and Wales.”
But also this from October 2011
“Figures have revealed that a larger number of people in Scotland are paying off their debt that in other parts of the UK. The figures come from the Credit Confidential Credit Index and have shown that more than one in four Scots are now in less debt than they were at the same time last year. In total 27.6 percent of Scots now owe less money on their debt than a year ago, reflecting how they have been paying off their debts.”
Amber
But I merely follow your example!
OLDNAT
THanks.
I came across this :-
h ttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8385966.stm
So Labour assessed it as a 50,000 units problem.
Quite why we are now moving to make it illegal I haven’t fathomed.
Sky reports as follows on the current proposals :-
“It is not an offence to sublet a council house – a loophole that allows an estimated 160,000 tenants to move out and take rent from someone else.
Housing minister Grant Shapps said it was a “scandal” that was costing taxpayers up to £10bn a year.
“For too long this country has turned a blind eye on the multi-billion pound problem of housing tenancy fraud and abuse,” he said.”
Sounds a bit like he doesn’t trust LAs to sort it out ?
OLDNAT
This is the DT reporting :-
“currently it is not an offence to sublet a council house – a loophole which allows some tenants who have moved out and live in private homes to make thousands of pounds in rent above the figure they are charged by local authorities.
A source said: “It is extraordinary that this is still the case. The only thing that can happen is they lose their right to live in the council house – which given that they are likely to have moved out anyway is not much of a hardship.”
New laws would target around 160,00 people who are estimated to sublet homes – opening them up to prosecution and possible jail sentences.”
That 160k figure is three times the number Healey was targetting under Labour.
Looks an interesting one————-plus Mr Crow having to wave goodbye to state subsidised rents of course
RiN
The best I can find on corporate debt is this from PWC in 2010
“we believe a realistic total of corporate Scotland’s borrowing facility needs at the end of 2009 to be in the region of £36bn to £41bn, a reduction from the range of £38bn to £45bn reported in this publication last year. “
Colin
As you will have noted! a Google search produces multiple copies of the same Press release.
The media today have become just printers of Press releases – since they sacked all their journalists!
OLDNAT
Indeed.
I read an intriguing point of view the other day about the dreadful death of Garry Speed.
The Times editorial hinted that the complete silence in the dead tree press about the case might be a fallout from Leveson.
It pointed out that this silence was not matched by the internet, where wild rumours of every sort have been quoted.
The Times said Mr Speed has been smeared, not by the Press but “in its absence,” .
I hope Leveson strikes the right balance in the end.
@Colin – re benefits – have a look at this;
“Headline results: Preliminary 2010/11 estimates
Fraud and Error across all benefits
The preliminary estimate of total overpayments due to fraud and error across all benefits is £3.3bn; this is 2.1% of the total benefit expenditure, which was £154bn in 2010/11.
The preliminary estimate for underpayments is that 0.8%, or £1.3bn, of total benefit expenditure was underpaid due to error.”
It’s on page 3 of http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd2/fem/fem_oct09_sep10.pdf from DWP.
@ Colin
Looks an interesting one————-plus Mr Crow having to wave goodbye to state subsidised rents of course
——————————————
Jings, another strawman.
I would suggest that Mr Crow will be forced, by this government & against his will, to purchase his home at a generous 50% discount. He must be distraught at the prospect.