Tonight’s is the last YouGov daily poll for 2011 and topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, meaning we end the year with the two main parties neck-and-neck, which is at least quite tidy. I’m not sure if we’ll have any polls until next year now. We haven’t had an ICM poll for the Guardian yet this month, so perhaps they’ll pop up between Christmas and new year, or perhaps they’ve skipped a month. Either way, I’ll try to do a round-up post or two over the next week.


208 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 40%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%”

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  1. SoCalLiberal

    i know that you are used to politics being a marketable commodity, but really!

    If you look at Amber’s other arguments, such an idea in Britain (which excludes NI) would only make sense if it was agreed to by the Tories.

    in the USA, you know perfectly well that Republicans and Democrats frequently use the same language on Mom and Apple Pie issues.

    Have a look at Milliband’s speech.

    http://www.labour.org.uk/promise-of-britain-speech

    As I pointed out, a lot of it relates to England only. Good politicians set out to relate to the maximum number of people. Enough said.

  2. @ SoCaL

    Thank you; I’m glad that you ‘get’ what Ed’s talking about with the Promise of Britain. You expanded on it very eloquently & I’m sure that’s exactly what Ed’s team meant.
    8-)

  3. @ Old Nat

    If you look at Amber’s other arguments, such an idea in Britain (which excludes NI)
    —————————
    Oh, give over with the NI thing. You are just being petty now.

  4. Amber

    ” I disagreed with the Tory sell-off policy but people voted for it.”

    Indeed, many in England did – which is why it happened. You are happy for the English majority to make these decisions. Fair enough, you want such decisions to be British, and you are happy to accept the consequences of that.

    Some of us take a different view.

    I do suggest that you take a detailed look at the McCrone Report and the political discussions in Norway about the creation of a sovereign wealth fund.

    There is indeed debate in Norway as to whether the annual take from the sovereign wealth fund should be increased from 4% to fund additional current revenue spend (RiN could give us more detail). However, no one with more than a single brain cell advocated that the entire revenues should be put into the current account. Such a policy would have been ruinous.

    Indeed, there is a perfectly sound argument that the UK’s reliance on “Ex-Regio” revenue for the last 40 years has produced precisely that effect.

  5. @ Old Nat

    “Last time I looked, Wales was part of “Britain” – or “Great Britain” if you wish to contrast it with Brittany.”

    I’ve been to Brittany. Your mention of it brings back some great childhood memories. They have some great foods there that you can’t get anywhere else in the world (like Turbotan fish, Saltwater Lamb, and these Blue Lobsters) and beautiful scenery. But what is their relation to Britain if any? Why are they called Bretons if they’re within France? They all seem to speak French too, not English (Though I’ve heard there’s some Breton language). Are Bretons related to Britons in any way? Or is it like one of those oddly coincidental names that doesn’t actually mean anything?

    (Like the City of Hawaiian Gardens, CA which is neither Hawaiian nor contains any gardens…..or the inner city Los Angeles neighborhood of Country Club Park, which contains neither a country club nor any parks).

  6. Amber

    I’m delighted to embarrass you!

  7. @ Old Nat

    I’m really enthused by your democratic credentials being based on what the polls say! Wouldn’t it be nice to have principles?
    ———————————
    I wouldn’t go so far as to define my policy preferences as “principles”.

    And giving credence to properly conducted polls (votes) of the electorate is being democratic. So you are losing the plot now. :-)

  8. @ Old Nat

    I’m delighted to embarrass you!
    ————————-
    Actually, I am embarrassed by your sudden interest in NI. Because, given your frequent mention of your lack of interest in England, I amazed to find you so concerned about NI.

    I have drawn the conclusion that your feigned interest was purely an attempt to embarrass me. You have just confirmed that. So you were indeed indulging in petty point scoring. That’s a bit childish, is it not?
    8-)

  9. @ Old Nat

    “i know that you are used to politics being a marketable commodity, but really!

    If you look at Amber’s other arguments, such an idea in Britain (which excludes NI) would only make sense if it was agreed to by the Tories.

    in the USA, you know perfectly well that Republicans and Democrats frequently use the same language on Mom and Apple Pie issues.”

    Well they do use mom and apple pie issues but people almost never refer to “mom” and “apple pie.” And they might use the same language but the reality means something very different.

    The thing is though, I think it is extremely important that politicians put forward a message that resonates with voters. It doesn’t matter how smart or competent you are or how great your proposed laws are. What matters is whether you can sell it. That’s just the reality.

  10. SoCalLiberal

    Alas for American’s lack of history!

    The current political borders in Europe are the result of a long process of change – cultural merging : military conquest : political deals etc.

    Long ago, there were myriad cultures in the European land mass and its offshore islands (or a single culture if you want to interpret it in that way – much the same as now!)

    In Roman times, there were strong cultural links between the British Isles and the Continent. These were particularly close (it was thought) between the island of Britain (the largest of the British Isles) and the peninsula in modern France known as Brittany. The Bretons have their own Celtic language – though suppressed by the French – similar to Welsh and Cornish.

    The largest British area (the big island) was known as Great Britain, while the peninsula in modern France was known as Lesser Britain (the terms refer to size not power – that is an invention of Imperial Brits).

  11. Amber

    I have never said I am uninterested in England. I wouldn’t, because that wouldn’t be true.

    I tend not to comment on purely English political issues, in the same way that I seldom comment on specifically English, Welsh or NI issues, unless they concern education – in which case I tend to ask questions rather than make critical comments.

    While this site calls itself UKPR, it might more accurately be GBPR, and given the disparity in population, most comment is reasonably enough on English politics, English politics is of less interest to me than Scottish politics. I recognise that the opposite is true for you.

  12. SoCalLiberal

    “What matters is whether you can sell it. That’s just the reality.”

    Unfortunately, that’s true. Of course, that depends on having a message that you can sell simultaneously to a myriad of people with widely varying aspirations.

    Tony Blair did that well. Unfortunately, the product, while containing some good elements for each of the markets being targetted, lacked coherence and its internal inconsistencies resulted in failure.

  13. @ Amber Star

    “Thank you; I’m glad that you ‘get’ what Ed’s talking about with the Promise of Britain. You expanded on it very eloquently & I’m sure that’s exactly what Ed’s team meant.”

    I was thinking about it. I may be far off here but if you were to compare the average Brit of 2011 to the average Brit just over a century ago at the height of the Victorian Era and the Empire, isn’t the average Brit far better off today than back then? Aren’t living standards far higher and don’t Brits live with more personal freedom? I guess it’s hard to compare with technological advances and inflation and all. If that’s something that Labour takes credit for, that’s something to be very proud of.

    It reminds me too of JFK’s statement of “Ask Not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country.” It’s that line of logic that “Promise of Britain” would seem premised on rather than “Promise for Britain.” For some reason, Labourites seem to love JFK.

  14. SoCalLiberal

    I’m surprised to see a lawyer using language so loosely!

    I’m quite sure that Labour would happily take the credit for all the technological advances since the “height of the Victorian Era and the Empire”, but as far as I’m aware they haven’t claimed to have invented the Internet!

    Have you worked out that the “average Brit” in the 19th century included the Irish and large sections of those living in the overseas territories of the Empire? If you don’t compare like with like, then comparisons are totally pointless.

  15. @ Old Nat

    “Alas for American’s lack of history!

    The current political borders in Europe are the result of a long process of change – cultural merging : military conquest : political deals etc.

    Long ago, there were myriad cultures in the European land mass and its offshore islands (or a single culture if you want to interpret it in that way – much the same as now!)

    In Roman times, there were strong cultural links between the British Isles and the Continent. These were particularly close (it was thought) between the island of Britain (the largest of the British Isles) and the peninsula in modern France known as Brittany. The Bretons have their own Celtic language – though suppressed by the French – similar to Welsh and Cornish.

    The largest British area (the big island) was known as Great Britain, while the peninsula in modern France was known as Lesser Britain (the terms refer to size not power – that is an invention of Imperial Brits).”

    Fascinating. So in the same way that you can kinda understand Eoin when he speaks in Gaelic (and he can kinda understand you), could a Cornish or Welsh speaker have some understanding of a Breton speaker and vice versa?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcC9egmnvZs&feature=related

    I don’t speak French but I can understand what is going on in this video (speaking of political messes left behind by European colonialism for people to resolve or not resolve later on).

  16. @ Old Nat

    “I’m surprised to see a lawyer using language so loosely!

    I’m quite sure that Labour would happily take the credit for all the technological advances since the “height of the Victorian Era and the Empire”, but as far as I’m aware they haven’t claimed to have invented the Internet!

    Have you worked out that the “average Brit” in the 19th century included the Irish and large sections of those living in the overseas territories of the Empire? If you don’t compare like with like, then comparisons are totally pointless.”

    I speak of British people who live within the current boundaries of the UK and not those outside of it.

    The language of law and the language of political marketing are often very different. That’s why most of the “lawyers” who are elected to office and make for great politicians were usually not stand out lawyers. See, e.g., Antonio Villaraigosa (he failed the California Bar Exam four times). See, e.g., Richard Cordray. Most of the great lawyers out there do not make for great politicians. There are of course possible exceptions. See, e.g., Earl Warren, Kamala Harris.

    Also, Al Gore NEVER claimed that he invented the internet. That was a story made up by former Congressman Mark Foley (R-FL), apparently during his breaks from instant messaging his House pages about their respective p***s sizes.

  17. @ Old Nat

    “Unfortunately, that’s true. Of course, that depends on having a message that you can sell simultaneously to a myriad of people with widely varying aspirations.

    Tony Blair did that well. Unfortunately, the product, while containing some good elements for each of the markets being targetted, lacked coherence and its internal inconsistencies resulted in failure.”

    I think Blair accomplished a lot. I still like him (I bought his book…..it was half off at a Borders close out sale).

    I just accept messaging as a part of reality.

  18. Merry Xmas one and all.

    And here’s my gift to you all.. a link to an amusing little farce…

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/dec/22/christmas-at-the-camerons

    This last YG poll…Cons and Lab supporters will be pleased to be and neck and neck . The LDs? Who cares…?

  19. In fact Brittany was colonised by “Britons” (ie Celts from Great Britain – not the actual indigenous Britons whom the Celts displaced) who took their language and culture with them. That’s how it got the name. Breton culture has largely been absorbed into French culture now, but yes “Breton” is a celtic language with some intercommunicability with Gaelic, Welsh and Cornish. And Breton folk music has some of the “diddly diddly” (I don’t mean that to be derogatory – I love Celtic folk music) elements you find in the other varients of Celtic music.

  20. The largest British area (the big island) was known as Great Britain, while the peninsula in modern France was known as Lesser Britain (the terms refer to size not power – that is an invention of Imperial Brits).”

    That’s about it.

    The Brits were the ancient Celtic settlers of these two modern regions.

    Great Britain is really an abbreviation of Greater Britain or even Greater Brittany. This is still apparent in languages such as German where ‘Grosse Britannien’ – which means Larger/Greater Brittain.

    It has been ‘corrupted’ by the modern British to mean Great as in Powerful/Brilliant/Wonderful and all that sort of nonsense.

    By contrast, Brittany in France, on the same measure, could be correctly called Lesser Britain or Lesser Brittany. And it’s separate nature from France is reflected in it’s own tongue and even an independence movement.

  21. Is this the last poll before Christmas Day?

    If so a score draw to finish on.

    Very fitting to enter the season of goodwill with.

    A very Happy Christmas to everyone :-)

  22. @Neil A, @all … some of the “diddly diddly”

    A little of the festive spirit:

    h
    ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDWEI0JxKwg

  23. Perhaps the Government front bench should have a penalty shoot out against the shadow front bench.

    Milliband 0 Cameron 1
    Harman 1 Clegg 0
    Balls 0 Osborne 1
    Cooper 1 May 0

    Who steps up next with the scores level?

  24. Hague 1/2 Alexander 1/2

  25. Bah Humbug !!

    2012 predictions.

    10-20 Lib Dem MP’s leave coaltion by May, but Clegg and others continue. Leadership contest by Autumn.

    Ed Miliband resigns as Labour leader by June, following poor performances at PMQ’s and complaints from all parts of the party about lack of policy direction. David Miliband decides not to stand for election. Andy Burnham wins, after a run off with Ed Balls.

    David Cameron reshuffles his cabinet after the budget, with Clarke and May losing their posts, with younger MP’s promoted to give a much more youthfull appearance to the cabinet, looking to the next GE.

    Euro survives (just about) following further central banks intervention. Greece and Portugal forced to sign up to timetable to withdraw by 2014.

    Most parts of EU including the UK go back into a recession for the first 6 months, with decline of -0.5% to -1.5%.

    Euro/UK countries fail to agree to any new treaty and the UK government does not repatriate any powers back from Brussels.

    The world does not end on 21 December 2012, proving that the polling conducted by Yougov is once again proved more accurate than the Mayans. ( No doubt, before this date is reached, YG will be polling people on whether the world will end)

    By this time next year Labour and the Tories will be neck and neck again in the polls, with Cable leading the Lib Dems to the heady heights of about 15%.

  26. I predict that at thye end of 2012 Ed M will still be leader of Labour party, and possibly PM.

    If he ain’t PM then his party will be ten points or more ahead of both coalition parties polling added together.

  27. NickP
    My prediction is that Ed M will never be PM. If his party ever get far enough ahead in the polls that it looks possible, the usual abstainers will come out in force, as they did in 1992 to give Major the highest ever popular vote because the silent majority were terrified of Kinnock.

  28. My prediction for 2012

    FrankG will still be contentedly sipping a cold beer in the warmth.

  29. Nick P

    I predict that at thye end of 2012 Ed M will still be leader of Labour party, and possibly PM.

    If he ain’t PM then his party will be ten points or more ahead of both coalition parties polling added together.

    _____________________

    You are predicting (more or less) a 30-50-10 VI in a year’s time. That seems wildly optimistic.

  30. R huckle

    Well I could predict a severe recession but there isn’t much point because we all know that, so what else can I predict and make myself look stupid one year from now, I will have a go

    The banking crisis in Europe spills over into the derivatives market, sending shares in British financial institution into freefall, the policy response from the BoE causes a sterling crisis. DC calls in the IMF.

    Japan runs out of buyers for its bonds, sending interest rates up to 3%, the Japanese govt has no money to pay for essential services after paying interest payments and has to make a choice between defaulting or massive austerity. The problems in Japan send the whole region into a tailspin.

    I will give up smoking

    The euro crisis deepens and several European banks go under

    Oldnat and amber will stop arguing and become best friends

    Greece has major riots, the army is deployed to restore order, hundreds killed or wounded. A revolutionary atmosphere prevails in much of southern Europe

    I will try to give up chocolate and fail miserably

    Brazil goes into recession as it real estate market collapses

    Colin admits he has been wrong the whole time and announces that he is joining the swp

    China’s real estate bust intensifies a large Chinese bank goes under, after investigation the CEO and senior management are put on trial and executed. Which is just enough to keep the party in power

    Baroness wasi is forced to resign after newspaper reports of an affair with a small balding libdem supporter based in Norway.

    Obama wins reelection with the smallest share of the popular vote ever. The two third party candidates poll very well and one of them pushes mitt romney into third place. Both democrats and republicans suffer losses in congress to third party candidates, Elizabeth warren becomes leader of the senate

    That’s all I’ve got for the moment :smile:

  31. I think Lab will get close to 50 but probably not there, but Con (2 or 3 under 30) and LD (between 5 and 10) will make it a ten point gap.

    But then I thought England would win the world Cup in 1982,86,90,98, 2002, 06 and 2010 so it is just poss I am being a tad optimistic.

  32. @ SoCaL

    It reminds me too of JFK’s statement of “Ask Not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country.” It’s that line of logic that “Promise of Britain” would seem premised on rather than “Promise for Britain.” For some reason, Labourites seem to love JFK.
    ————————————–
    Despite all his over publicised faults & contradictions, we absolutely do.
    8-)

  33. I predict no change in 2012.

    Little change in 2013.

    And a Conservative overall majority in 2014. Followed by the resignation of Ed M.

    The LibDems being reduced to about 20 MPs.

    But that’s for later….

  34. @ Nick P

    Who steps up next with the scores level?
    ——————————
    It was going to be Labour’s footie star, Andy Burnham but there was no need: Lansley scored an own goal.
    8-)

  35. @ RiN

    Oldnat and amber will stop arguing and become best friends
    ———————————-
    LOL :-) I already consider Old Nat a friend – but I think we will never stop arguing.
    8-)

  36. “It was going to be Labour’s footie star, Andy Burnham but there was no need: Lansley scored an own goal.”

    I thought it was error putting Gove in as goalkeeper, but I didn’t like to say.

    (Might have helped having Bercow reffing. Never seen so many blues get a red card).

  37. 2012 predictions –
    We have a fairly stable year of polling, Cons on 37-40, Lab on 39-41, Libs on 11-8.

    The UK goes in to recession in early 2012, but back to growth by the end of 2012.

    Banks across Europe (including in the UK) fail and require another massive bailout.

    One LibDem minister resigns and one LibDem MP switches party (to Green or SNP, to everybody’s surprise).

    And despite the calls for them to resign, Miliband and Clegg continue as leaders of their parties.

  38. Amber

    Agreed! If we didn’t share so many other ideas, our bickering would be much less fun!

    Johann got off to a reasonable start at FMQs I thought (he sid in the spirit of Xmas). :-)

  39. TingedFringe

    It would be quite fun to have an SNP MP representing Twikenham! :-)

  40. @ RIN

    Baroness Wasi ? Each to their own I suppose. The extreme darkness in Norwaythis time of year must be getting to you.

    Further predictions.

    Ed Balls comes up with a new 5 point plan to save the economy. The first 4 use the same revenue source and the 5th relies on the revenues from the first 4.

    Cable criticises Clegg and Tory coaltion partners during a meeting with two attractive female constituents,

    Oliver Letwin employs a civil servant to look after his paperwork. Job advert says, must enjoy walks in the park at 6am Monday to Thursday.

    Chris Huhne given a tuk tuk as his ministerial car, with space for only one driver.

    George Osborne enjoys a winter holiday in Scotland and a summer holiday in a caravan in Bognor Regis.

    David Cameron decides to stop his party taking donations from private enquity investors and selling internships at fundraisers.

    Ed Miliband decides that his MP’s should not receive sponsorship from Unions to support their constituency offices.

  41. My year’s prediction…

    Another incarnation of one Roland H posts undetected, and charms everyone with her eloquence.

    I stop being beastly to NC, and LD MPs in general .

    DC discovers he’s now a caricature of some anti-hero called Flashman, and stops beastly to EM.

    EB stops winding up DC in the HoC. DC Fazed by this totally loses bladder control in a PMQ session.

    These are just as likely to happen as any other predicted on this thread, so far…

  42. @R Huckle – “The world does not end on 21 December 2012.”

    Mayan “world time” – the long count calendar ends… a transition from “fourth sun” to “fifth sun”? Most records were destroyed by the conquistadors.

    The apocalypse is a ‘new age’ (check out the pedigree of that ‘movement’) interpretation.

    Possibly the significance is that near the end point of a 26,000 year cycle, there will be a some kind of symbolic alignment relative to Yucatan at the winter solstice 2012.

  43. @ Billy Bob

    So the Sun goes out and there will another Sun. Better start getting some firewood in, just in case there is a time lag before the new Sun starts.

    Note to Santa. People get the elfs to knit me an extra long scarf and some nice thick gloves. Plus can you shoot Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, Vixen, Comet, Cupid, Donder and Blitzen and send me the hides.

  44. Forecast:

    Another hefty round of QE allows the UK to narrowly avoid a technical recession. Cheers from the Coalition; how lucky can they get?!

    But the ballooning trade deficit means Uk loses its AAA rating anyway. The cost of government borrowing goes up & Osborne can’t take the necessary measures because he is afraid of the markets & the political consequences.

    Anyway, he is now missing his deficit targets by a country mile. 2012 Autumn statement, OSBR ‘force’ Osborne to admit that it will be 2020 before the books are balanced. Alistair Darling & Ed Balls are wall to wall in the media, saying: “We told you so.” The big difference is: This time, people are listening!

    Osborne has zero wiggle room because the restructuring of the NHS in England has been a fiasco. Osborne has had to allocate his entire contingency fund to filling the hole in the NHS. He is up the creek without a paddle & even the Treasury are saying: We told you so.

    Andy Coulson gets jail time.

    Osborne resigns.

    So… who will be our next Chancellor?

    8-)

  45. “So… who will be our next Chancellor?”
    The surprise return of Gordon Brown?

  46. @ Amberstar

    So… who will be our next Chancellor?

    Phillip Hammond

    If Osborne does go, he will leave the Cabinet. Cameron will be at a bit of a loss, as he seems to rely on him for strategy.

    No chance of any Lib Dem taking such a senior role.

  47. Anybody know what Gordon Brown is up to these days? Whatever it is, I bet he wishes he would have resigned as PM and taken up the post of EU president in 2009.

  48. “If Osborne does go, he will leave the Cabinet. Cameron will be at a bit of a loss, as he seems to rely on him for strategy.”
    Surely he can still have the role as ‘Special Advisor to PM’?

  49. Okay.

    Cameron does a deal with UKIP promising a referendum on Europe and goes to the country in May (after manufacturing a row with the LDs about whether “Froggie Farts” is unparliamentary language or not).

    During the election the SNP say if there is a an EU referendum then they will want out of the UK and will accelerate the Scotland in-out of the UK referendum.

    The General Election becomes a vote on whether Scotland should stay in the UK and the UK in Europe. Ed M and NC are pro-Unionist and Cameron sits on the fence and says the people must decide about Europe and Scotland must decide about the UK.

    Panic sets in amongst businessmen and Scots who hate tories but don’t want to leave the UK.

    Labour win with a massive resurgence everywhere and the first 50% plus mandate for many moons. The LDs survive as Con shrinks to its anti-Europe heart.

    Lab 50%, Con 28% Lib Dem 10%

    Then England triumph in th Euro Footie and head the medal table in the Olympics. The Economy booms.

    Cameron says sorry about Coulson and resigns. After a fierce internal debate, John Redwood wins the leadership and promises to be “a real Tory leader at last”.

  50. NickP

    “England …… head the medal table in the Olympics” could only happen if Scotland, Wales and NI have already left the Union. But I’m sure you knew that! :-)

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