Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%. While the boost that the Conservatives received from David Cameron’s veto appears to have declined somewhat from the Conservative leads we briefly saw last week, it doesn’t look like it’s vanished completely.

Tomorrow night’s YouGov poll is the last daily poll before the Xmas break, and while we may or may not also get an ICM/Guardian poll this month, we really won’t know for certain what the position is until next year (and even if the Tories are still enjoying a veto bounce now, it may well have vanished by January!)


183 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 40, LAB 40, LD 10”

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  1. I do hope we’ll still get open threads from time to time over the festive season – otherwise I’ll have to talk to the family!

  2. eh eh eh

  3. Oldnat – I’m sure I’ll find something to witter on about

  4. @Anthony Wells

    Thank you for the info that tomorrows’ is the last YouGov of 2011. When is the first one of 2012?

    Regards, Martyn

  5. I thought this poll looked familiar, I seem to remember a lot of these kind of polls last year, so I went and checked the last poll of 2010, it was

    Con…..39
    Lab……41
    Lib……..9

    So one year on and not much change

  6. RiN

    I’m sure that our friend Amber invented a term for that! :-)

  7. Like I said a few days ago- the Labour leadership need to reflect upon this last 2 weeks very seriously over the coming ‘silly season’.

    In the meantime we head towards another hung parliament sometime between 2013 and 2015.

  8. This reminds me a bit like the Solihull thread, on the consituency section of this site.

    Solihull was a very safe Conservative seat, but something went wrong for them rapidly in the early 2000s and may have been party locally related.
    The Lib Dems snatched it in 2005 with a tiny majority and there were a huge number of posts speculating about whether the LDs would hold on or whether the Tories would take it back.
    In the end, the result was almost exactly the same as in 2005, after about 1,000 posts.

  9. A poll that neatly and symmetrically encapsulates the nation – split right down the middle.

  10. Quite.
    There is no unified national verdict on the two main parties.
    There are two groups of people with very different views about how to resolve the nations difficulties.

    The LDs hold the balance because it’s hard for either of those 2 to get a majority – at the moment
    but they could end up with their worst result since 1979.

  11. yes, I too have been seeing recent polls as favouring another hung parliament in the offing. 1974 all over again!

    Or else we can consider these to be “mid term” polls (just about) and the real result is something entirely different.

    Yes, the veto left quite an impression. no doubt there is some economic bad news coming to counteract that. Not that that necessarily leaves Labour seeming popular either, it’s going to be some time before bad news is blamed wholly on the current incumbent.

  12. Tonight’s details:

    Con 40
    Lab 40
    Lib Dem 10
    UKIP 4
    SNP / PCY 3
    Green 3
    BNP 1
    Respect 0
    Other 1

    Approval 31 – 53 = -22

    Non-voters 21%

    Tables are here:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8h8pl8egu2/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-211211.pdf

    So there does seem to be some life in the post-veto bounce after all. If you look where the extra Conservative votes have come from (comparing say tonight’s poll with a fortnight ago), it appears to be partly from UKIP but also from dissatisfied 2010 Tories returning from the non-voting responses. This is what you might expect in these circumstances and also what might happen in the run-up to a real election – as indeed happened to some extent in May this year.

    The demographics of the bounce are very interesting though (this may have been pointed out by others, if so apologies). The extra Tory votes come very disproportionately from the over-60s. They have moved from 42% v 32% Con v Lab to 53% v 27% in the fortnight, the other age groups are barely changed and all show a healthy Labour lead. This is also shown in the shift in the female vote that Colin has already pointed out, women predominating in the over-60s. The result is a shift overall from 35% v 42% to 40% v 40% and an increase in Government Approval. Indeed the over-60s tonight actually show overall approval for the government by 47% to 44% (OAPs approve of something shock!).

    This may appear good news for the Conservatives, but there are dangers. The switch to GA disapproval among loyal Lib Dems continues and in the tracker question preference for Con-LD coalition against Lab-LD has shifted from 42% v 37% to 30% v 47%. All this may bring pressure on the coalition.

    In the long term relying overmuch on one age group may cause problems. In particular there are fewer undecided voters among the over-60s and it is with these elections are often won.

    Meanwhile I expect the usual denunciations from the usual quarters about a Party being kept in power by those who don’t work and are reliant on the state and given all sort of special privileges by it in return for their votes. ;)

    (Usual provisos apply of course. In particular under-25s are few and far between in the original sample – it’s almost as if they had something better to do at this time of year)

  13. A few days ago there were several comments re the need for Cameron to have a Falklands type adventure to boost his poll rating before the next election.

    Well it may be in the offing as tomorrows Indy reports that action in Somalia is under consideration by the government. Pirates based in Somalia have been responsible for action against Britsh interests (eg the British couple who were kidnapped from their yacht) so such action may well play well at home.

  14. ‘but they could end up with their worst result since 1979.’

    Sounds about right -they are just about certain to go down to
    14-16%.

    It’s LD-Tory contests that matter but the tories increasing their 2010 vote by 2.5% or so is bad news for the LDs as they really need the tories to stagnate at 35/36.

  15. @ Lefty Lampton (11.34 & 11.39)

    Another conclusion from your data in the previous thread (and for me a more important conclusion) is that the percentage of ex Lib Dems favouring Lib/Lab cf Lab government has increased significantly.

    Current data

    Con Maj: 15%
    Con/Lib Coalition: 3%
    Lab/Lib Coalition: 28%
    Lab Maj: 27%

    November data

    Con Maj: 9%
    Con/Lib Coalition: 0%
    Lab/Lib Coalition: 23%
    Lab Maj: 36%

  16. I think 15-16% yes – polls do tend to under-estimate them a bit
    (but not always – as I’ve argued)

    1979 was actually a very bad result for them (14.1%) considering they fought nearly all the seats, unlike the period before October 1974 (A point the Liberals fail to point out).

  17. The Tories might scrape a majority if they can hold the Labour swing down in southern/midlands marginals
    whilst taking seats off the Lib Dems.

    What would be really awkward would be a Tory led hung Parliament
    but a broken Lib Dem party that would surely feel sore about propping the Tories up.
    It’s rather all or nothing.

  18. Sergio

    Surely the split is right ACROSS the middle?

  19. I can’t see the tories getting a majority but Con+DUP might equal 295-300 if the tories win about 39%.
    (probably best case tory scenario) although I think around 280 is most likely for tories TBH.

    The LDs probably will hold up better where it matters though (mainly against the tories) and if the boundaries aren’t too bad (a specific caveat there) they could still come in at 25-30 seats.

  20. back to the late 60’s

    United v Citeh

    reds v blues
    #
    scousers and cokneys out of it

    labour v tory

    lib dems = tory allies.

    LOVE TO ALL

  21. I know that cross-breaks are very unreliable, but I think that in London especially the Tory boost has remained. This poll has 48-34% Con-Lab in London with a sample size of 221, and almost all the polls since the veto seem to show similar (although not quite such large) leads in London.

    Why? Possibly a combination of Boris, and Cameron defending the City against the evil European tax? Any other possible reasons that anyone can think of?

    As for the next GE, I think it is far too early to guess what will happen. Tory supporters will tend to say that the Cons will get a majority, Lab supporters will tend to say that Lab will get a majority, and LDs will tend to say that there will be a hung parliament… because that’s what we all want!

  22. @ Old Nat

    “I do hope we’ll still get open threads from time to time over the festive season – otherwise I’ll have to talk to the family!”

    What a horrible travesty that would be! Lol. :)

  23. Roger Mexico
    ‘Meanwhile I expect the usual denunciations from the usual quarters about a Party being kept in power by those who don’t work and are reliant on the state and given all sort of special privileges by it in return for their votes’

    Which we know(most of us) is a baloney as these people have worked all their lives contributing to their future pension and benefits in full. Many are indeed working and continue to do so into their seventies; many others are carers, or contribute by looking after their grandchildren while parents work.

  24. “While the boost that the Conservatives received from David Cameron’s veto appears to have declined somewhat from the Conservative leads we briefly saw last week, it doesn’t look like it’s vanished completely.”

    My best guess on this would be the bounce is probably declining amonst unaffiliated voters who float between the major parties. However, a full decline from the bounce isn’t occurring because some dispirited Tories who had sided with UKIP are going back to the Tories and will presumably stay there.

  25. @ Roger Mexico

    I just watched an episode of House Hunters International where a married couple from London with young children decides to move to Guernsey. I thought of you and the Isle of Man as the show labeled the island of Guernsey as both a “British Crown Dependency” and as an “English isle.” Do you, as a Manx, feel any brotherhood with or affinity for your fellow British crown dependent islanders? Like if you were in some completely random place like, I dunno, Medford, Oregon and you met someone who was from Guernsey, would you feel enthused and excited about it? Or would it have little to no bearing on you?

    Watching this episode, it was clear to me that island properties in British Crown Dependencies can be very expensive and extremely limited. This lovely couple had among their three choices a former tea room that they could remodel into a residential home.

  26. A hung parliament with Lab as largest party would be interesting to see for two reasons; a) Would Clegg (if he’s still in the job) apply the same principle as last time? b)How would the right-wing press react to Cameron trying to stay in no.10 (Remember The Sun “Brown Squatting” headline?)

  27. @Peter Bell

    @ Lefty Lampton

    “the percentage of ex Lib Dems favouring Lib/Lab cf Lab government has increased significantly.

    Current data
    Con Maj: 15% Con/Lib Coalition: 3%
    Lab/Lib Coalition: 28% Lab Maj: 27%

    November data
    Con Maj: 9% Con/Lib Coalition: 0%
    Lab/Lib Coalition: 23% Lab Maj: 36%”

    You must be wearing very heavily rose tinted glasses to get that sort of comfort from those figures.
    The number wanting a Con Maj increases from 9% to 15%
    The number wanting a Lab Maj decreases from 36% to 28%.
    The number wanting a Con Maj or con/LD coalition increases from 9% to 18% ie doubles
    The number wanting a Lab Maj or Lab/LD coalition decreases from 59% to 55%

    Yep, you keep thinking that those figures are favourable to Lab (and don’t forget to take the pills this time). :-)

  28. Correction:

    The number wanting a Lab Maj decrease from 36% to 27%.

    Gave you an extra 1% as a Xmas bonus!

  29. The support for the Coalition by the over-60s is understandable – they are the last generation to retire on final-salary pensions, with often good index-linking.OAPs and retired State employees are also well-protected.The pain is less obvious. As for Londoners’ support, I suggest they tend to be more aware than the North, especially where public sector workers are more common, that Labour’s solution to our economic ills cannot work.

  30. CHRISLANE

    @”lib dems = tory allies.”

    Don’t say that to Vince Cable. He will choke on his own bile-which is becoming a chronic condition for the sour old imposter.

    :-)

  31. @ROGER MEXICO

    “The extra Tory votes come very disproportionately from the over-60s.”

    The pensions strike problems are slowly easing (so far). The winter hasn’t disrupted the Christmas shopping too much, and perhaps a touch of EU bounce, imo.

  32. @Roger Mexico

    “The extra Tory votes come very disproportionately from the over-60s. They have moved from 42% v 32% Con v Lab to 53% v 27%”

    I’ve advocated all along that there should be compulsory retirement from voting at the age of 65. It’s part of my cunning plan to ensure we’d never have to endure a Conservative Government ever again!! lol

  33. IMHO Labour will be happy with their actual poll results which are running ahead of their opinion poll ratings

  34. I think it’s far too early to talk about hung parliaments or majorities, on either side – in simple fact, no one knows. The Tories failed to get a majority last time, when they themselves were confidently predicting 100+ seat majority in March 2010, but we have had historical precedence for the ‘twe bites at the cherry’option, and I don’t think a Tory government has ever been evicted after a single parliament before.

    While I’ve held for a long time that the Tories will struggle to get a majority without a return to 5 – 10 seats in Scotland and a better showing in the north, we might see an implosion of Lib Dem support and an effective return to two party politics, with @Rob Sheffield’s scenario of small percentage leads between the two parties returning to be the norm.

    Having said that, when voters examing the options in 2015/whenever, I strongly suspect that the Lib Dem option will loom large in many people’s minds, even if they hold their noses while ticking the box.

    And then there’s the economy. For various reasons, I suspect that yesterday’s auction of three year loans by the ECB will probably bring a credit crisis closer. It’s made the European banking system far more reliant on central bank funding and means there will be far less willingness for other lenders to supply credit, as the ECB is taking more and more of the available bank assets as collateral.

    This is going to unwind at some future point, but for a government planning to seek re election in 2015, I would have prefered the crisis to break now, with maximum recovery time before I go to the polls. The last thing Cameron will want is a 2013 financial collapse.

  35. COLIN.
    Good Morning= late up I am after a great night out, and family are out also!

    Yes. Vincent Cable, former chairman of Twickenham Labour Party. He left for the SDP

    They were dark days when that man from Westminster School changed his name from Anthony Wedgewood to Tony. He read his father’s diaries in the summer of 1970, after the defeat. He then read Marx and found out who the Levellers and the Diggers were, and with Mullin and Meacher as his representatives on earth, set about driving the party to the far left culminating in the 1983 manifesto suicide note.

    So I was 10 when Harold won in 1966 and I was 42 when Tony Blair won in 1997. Hence my ‘unhealthy love’ (Nick P).

    We can discount the accidental Feb 1974 win, and the disastrously small majority in October 1974.

    On other matters: our church in Boscombe Bournemouth is launching a massive Food Bank appeal on the Epiphany 2012, since many families are in dire need of food- money just does not cover rent, utilities, transport, uniforms etc.

    It was the best of times and it was the worst of times.

    And Labour people are happy that they have ‘elected’ and retaining in leadership a man who we know will not win the GE in 2015.

  36. I dont think Labour will be happy at all. F + H was a reasonable to good result but its significance is very limited and for a government to be 4 points up midterm is not common occurence and for EM to effectivley take no tory votes at all (or at least lose as many as he is taking) is not a good performance at all

  37. chrislane

    you are forgetting a simple fact.

    But for the crash hitting in 2008 (or if Gord had gone to the polls in 2007) then Labour would have won WITHOUT your beloved Tone.

    I still think Lab will win next time out. What might stop them is if voters get a whiff of pro-Tone vs anti-Tone internal strife. It’s a completely artificial split all to do with power bases within the party.

    Some policies! that’d be a start.

  38. CHRISLANE

    @”Yes. Vincent Cable, former chairman of Twickenham Labour Party.”

    Precisely.

  39. @ChrisLane1945

    “And Labour people are happy that they have ‘elected’ and retaining in leadership a man who we know will not win the GE in 2015.”

    The trouble with that, Chris, is that it is an assertion based on an opinion and you simply cannot know whether it is true or not. Snapshot and essentially transitory polling data may suggest that Miliband has much to do to convince a sceptical electorate, but there is nothing within the current data that suggests he can’t do that, especially when you contemplate the uncertainties on the political and economic horizon. As I’ve said before, it’s conceivable that he may become a beneficiary of unfolding events without necessarily having to do very much to captivate the public. Thatcher circa 1976-79 is an interesting case study in this respect. She lagged behind Callaghan quite markedly in terms of personal popularity and credibility, and much that is said about Miliband now was said about her then. Indeed, although now academic and impossible to prove, polls suggested that Callaghan and Labour would have won quite comfortably in September 1978. Then came the winter of discontent and widespread public service disruption and Thatcher, as if touched by mythical gold dust, suddenly became a potential PM.

    There may come a time, who knows, when Ed Miliband becomes, as Leaders of Opposition quite often do, the “I’m not the Incumbent PM” candidate. It’s called popularity by proxy and Cameron himself knows how useful it was to be the “I’m not Gordon Brown” candidate in May 2010. Just not being the other guy can be a remarkably useful trait in politics. I suspect Barak Obama may be a beneficiary of this political maxim in November 2012.

  40. Roger Mexico

    @”Indeed the over-60s tonight actually show overall approval for the government by 47% to 44%”

    Indeed-vs -19 on 30 Nov ( 37/42/9 )

    @”(OAPs approve of something shock!).

    ……..the importance of marriage, & stable families for children?…………no shock at all from the generation which often picks up the pieces. :-)

  41. Just had a thought about the apparent propensity of the over-65 age group to vote Conservative and how this age group have much higher levels of both turn out and voter registration. An in-built electoral advantage for the Tories, or so you would think. But countenance this. During the 20 year period when this demographic group has increased markedly in numbers, as life expectancy levels have risen significantly, the Conservatives have failed to win a single General Election and, in some, have been trounced out of sight.

    It’s a funny, contradictory old world, isn’t it?

  42. I’m afraid pretty much all polls now must be taken with a huge bucket of salt as we are now very firmly into the holiday season (or we certainly are here in London), and I remember from past experience of Bank Holiday polls that you get very screwy results.

    Anthony, are they just unreliable because of the difficulty of getting responses, or is it that the sample sizes are skewed, do they just need a much higher moe?

  43. Colin

    ” Don’t say that to Vince Cable. He will choke on his own bile-which is becoming a chronic condition for the sour old imposter.”

    I should imagine that he quite happy at the moment seeing as he had a big win in the cabinet with banking reforms, of course they don’t go far enough but they go further than George would have liked and that’s all Vincent’s doing. I don’t know why you call him an impostor, that the reds might call him that I understand, they think that the dems have betrayed their principles. But you regard him as an impostor because he fights his corner whereas I regard nick and Danny as impostors because they don’t. Sour and bile were quite uncalled for as is “chronic condition” that just being plain nasty.

  44. Vince was a member of the labour party 30years ago

    Gove used to be a trade union activist

    Langley used to be a member of the sdp

    People change, opinions shift as we get older and “wiser” or is changing your mind not an option. Or perhaps this rule only applies to vince?

  45. Adrian B –

    Well, there isn’t really any strong evidence that bank holidays etc give freaky results. There are anecdotal examples of freaky polls from bank holiday weekends, but then, there are also many examples of freaky rogue polls taken at other times of the year (equally, there are polls done at odd times of the year that came out completely normal – YouGov’s Telegraph polls used to be done on the last weekend of each month, meaning one year there was one done over Christmas weekend. It looked perfectly normal!)

    There’s a potential for odd samples given many people will be on holiday… though I suppose that also means more people will be at home to answer the phone.

    I always advise caution but, to be honest, I don’t have solid evidence to back that caution up. It’s just that there is *potential* for odd samples.

  46. @Colin – “……..the importance of marriage, & stable families for children?…………no shock at all from the generation which often picks up the pieces.”

    I think it’s much more the fact that the austerity measures have studiously avoided applying any real penalty on the over 65’s so far.

    I can forsee trouble ahead, largely due to the unwillingness of governments to tackle the issue of high voter turnout pensioners who are doing relatively much better in the crisis that any other wage group.

    This has been a long standing policy drift across successive governments, and includes the obvious things like special handouts to pensioners regardless of income and higher income tax thresholds related to nothing more than age. We’ve also seen some significant cuts in areas like welfare, working tax credits and education, while pension increases have been completely protected.

    However, there are deeper issues that have arisen from the long term move from income tax to national insurance. Everytime there has been a reduction in income tax rates and an increase in NI contributions, we have effectively witnessed a transfer of the tax burden from the growing pension age populace to the shrinking working agegroup.

    Where the real problems will come I feel, is if we see care costs burdens distributed so a further burden falls on the working age population. Much of this comes back to my long held view that we need to restructure taxation to capture more in terms of asset taxes. Older generations have lower earned income but higher assets, yet we are expecting taxation to fall ever more heavily on earned income.

    As the pensioner age group becomes ever more numerous, the need for them to pull their weight in terms of the nations financial burden will become ever more necessary. The alternative will be trying to squeeze ever more out of employment taxes, potentially damaging long term competitiveness.

  47. A Cairns

    “Sounds about right -they are just about certain to go down to
    14-16%.”

    All of this speculation about how supposedly badly the Lib Dems are going to do next time (still three to three and a half years away) reminds me of how everyone said in 2007 we were going to get crushed by a Cameron led Tory landslide.

    At present, the Conservatives are “borrowing” votes and support from the Lib Dems under the guise of the Coalition. I think that once people see another right wing Conservative manifesto promising all out privatisation of public services etc. it will make them run a mile. While I think it will be a tougher proposition to win back votes from Labour, once things like the £10,000 personal allowance come fully into effect, plus promises of even higher levels e.. £12,500 after the election, that could win back more C2s, Ds, and Es, which is where some of current LD loss of vote lies. Plus, much more LD vote has gone to “don’t know” than is the case for other parties.

  48. @R in N

    “Gove used to be a trade union activist”

    Ah yes, our man on the union picket line, bespectacled and looking impossibly young. I bet he wishes that photograph had been consigned to the rubbish bin, a bit like George probably does with all those old Bullingdon Club photographs that occasionally get an airing.

    Didn’t Gove also once famously say, “what is there not to like about Tony Blair?”.

    Of course, there a few Tories with early Labour backgrounds, not just those who mutated via the SDP like Langley, Finklestein and Grayling. A young student called Michael Portillo used to bedeck his bedroom walls with photos of Harold Wilson and, if I remember rightly, I once read that the fragrant Louise Mensch (nee Bagshawe) once harboured Labour sympathies, swooning temporarily over the sight of a young Tony Blair.

    Back to Cable, though. I’m convinced old Vince will be the first man overboard on the old tub HMS Coalition, and I have a funny feeling that the former Twickenham Labour Club man will eventually come home. I mean, what other member of this Coalition Government would muster half a sympathetic cheer, as he did, when walking on to the stage at the Annual Comedy Awards?

    He was an award presenter, by the way, not a recipient! lol

  49. @crossbat11

    “I’ve advocated all along that there should be compulsory retirement from voting at the age of 65. It’s part of my cunning plan to ensure we’d never have to endure a Conservative Government ever again!! lol”

    Do you realise just how sexist your remark could be viewed by some?

    Firstly it would require all ‘ladies’ to be forced to reveal their true age and face the shame of ‘no longer being of voting age’. Would this mean another change of life crisis for women I wonder?

    Secondly since women seem to live about 5 years longer than men, it means they will be denied the vote for disproportionally longer.

    Tut, Tut! That would get the knitting needles clicking. :-)

  50. I know it’s flogging a dead horse but I wonder the impact if we had prreferntial voting… Tories + UKIP versus Labour + Green. LD split down the middle?

    I must wake up….

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