Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%. While the boost that the Conservatives received from David Cameron’s veto appears to have declined somewhat from the Conservative leads we briefly saw last week, it doesn’t look like it’s vanished completely.

Tomorrow night’s YouGov poll is the last daily poll before the Xmas break, and while we may or may not also get an ICM/Guardian poll this month, we really won’t know for certain what the position is until next year (and even if the Tories are still enjoying a veto bounce now, it may well have vanished by January!)


183 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 40, LAB 40, LD 10”

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  1. FrankG

    Catalunya is also in the EU. Neither of us are individual members, but that doesn’t stop us being in it! Like us, Catalunya has another Union in the way.

    Fishing was sacrificed by Heath’s Government in the entry negotiations. Currently, we are much better protected when Richard Lochhead is heavily involved in the negotiations rather than when, whoever the UK Minister is taking charge.

  2. For anyone interested our psephologist has written an excellent piece on the US Primary Elections and the likely voting patterns.
    Follow the link: http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2011/12/a-look-forward-to-the-us-primaries/

  3. Valerie,but Moses only saw the promised land,it was
    Joshua who actually led them into it !

  4. Ann Miles

    On a site devoted to the measurement of public opinion, the research into attitudes to Joshua and Jericho is worth a mention.

    “Israeli psychologist George Tamarin looked at how Israeli children reacted to a passage from the Bible about Joshua and the battle of Jericho, something that would be described today as a massacre. When over a thousand Israeli schoolchildren were asked whether they totally approved, partially approved, or totally disapproved of what the Bible says Joshua and the Israelites had done in taking over the city of Jericho and slaughtering its inhabitants, 66% totally approved and 26% totally disapproved. When asked to explain their thinking, they gave religious justifications, including statements about the danger of learning bad ways from others of a different religion. (And some of those who disapproved did so on the grounds that property was lost as well as lives, and that property could have been put to good use by the Israelites.) When a smaller control group was given the same story, but with the names and places changed so that it was about a fictitious general who lived in China 3,000 years ago, only 7% totally approved and 75% disapproved.”

  5. @OldNat

    Thanks for the info on fishing, as far back as then. I was serving in NI and like TH had other things to worry about. It wasn’t right though, on that I do agree.

    Took a look at Catalonia and yes it has similar aspirations for complete independence. It too is part of Spain from the EU perspective rather like Scotland is part of the UK. You are both roughly the same size in population. But I would much rather be able to say “I come from Edinburgh” than “I come from Barcelona”. Somehow Manuel from Fawlty Towers keeps coming to mind.

  6. Oldnat

    “Did that mean that some 16-20 year old women could vote in Scotland?”

    If they were burgesses in their own right I think so.

  7. Thinking about the older (voting) electorate:

    Ed Miliband will be 42 in a day or two.
    Cameron is 45, Clegg will be 44 in a couple of weeks. Balls is 44 and Osborne 40.

    Labour did not go for the youngest candidate (Andy Burnham will be 42 on Clegg’s birthday) but they did pick the youngest looking candidate.

    One or two posters have suggested that if Labour did choose to change leader before the next election, they should skip another generation down to the 2010 intake… but would the electorate really stomach that?

    My guess is that many oldies who did vote for Cameron had, and still have, doubts about his ability.

    But by 2015 Cameron/Clegg/Osborne will be able to draw on 5 years expirience at the top.

  8. FrankG

    Not meant as a controversial question – just a request for information!

    Is there much demand these days among Greek Cypriots for Enosis?

  9. oldnat @ FrankG

    “Currently, we are much better protected when Richard Lochhead is heavily involved in the negotiations…”

    You have noticed the 2011 election results in fishing communities and constituencies not far from Moray, havn’t you?

    RH gets a lot of coverage in trade and local press and none at all in “national” media, very little in Scottish press. The number of issues he deals with is huge and includes responsibility for every non-human living thing above under or around Scotland.

    Each of these issues are important to small numbers of people.

  10. BILLY BOB
    Blair was only 43 at the time of his election as PM…Yet he cut through all ages in his support…I agree that going to the 2010 take is a ridiculous idea…One has to gain experience of politics at various levels in order to deal with the magnitude of issues one has to deal with…Cameron and Clegg would be only 45 but would have a wealth of experience in government by 2015…This must have it`s advantages though Milliband was in the cabinet before he became leader which neither Cameron nor Clegg did

  11. Well I will be 60 next year and I can say with absolute certainty that I will never, ever vote Tory.

    I question the assertion that people always move rightwards when they begin to draw their pensions.
    I have sympathy and compassion for people less fortunate than me. I always have had – why should that change?

    I think as we baby boomers get older, the assumptions about how old people think and operate will change. I don’t think us lot are going to take casual ageism lying down!

    I was amused when in the last series of “The Apprentice, a team decided to call a magazine, they had dreamt up for the over 60’s , “Hip Replacement”. His Lordship wasn’t too impressed! :-)

  12. ChrisLane 1945

    Your students may be interested in seeing some of the technicalities discussed in the debates on the 1918 Act

    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1918/jan/31/clause-4-franchises-women

    Mine would have been fascinated by ” In one of the cases in Ireland a poor man lost his vote because another poor man, in order to get to his own room, had to cross his room. The House should know what it is voting in this matter, and we should have an explanation from the right hon. Gentleman.” (line 1856)

  13. is important

  14. Valerie

    I think we’d just prefer the term “Hip”! :-)

  15. @Ann Miles

    :-) :-) :-)

  16. OLD NAT.
    Many thanks for all this.

    The Act seems in part a to say that the minimum age is 30, since it uses the word AND, for the other qualifications.

    In terms of Ireland the 40 shilling freehold qualification was withdawn in 1832, since they had supported O’Connell.

    it did not stop Home Rule though, with good protestant irish patriots preventing the english in their desire to stop the march of the nation.

    On easing me out of your school; the issue was my rejection of the inevitability of a causal link between socio economic status and achievement.

    Mr Bevin used to deplore the poverty of aspiration of the working class

  17. “One or two posters have suggested that if Labour did choose to change leader before the next election, they should skip another generation down to the 2010 intake… but would the electorate really stomach that?”

    Is the youngest new Lab MP Shabana Mahmood?
    She would be a very brave choice for Labour leader – especially as the Conservatives will probably be pushing for a stronger immigration policy in 2015 (stronger than the LibDems will allow).

  18. @Valerie, OldNat

    I take your point that not everyone shifts right as they get older, but it does seem from the polling data that a proportion do. Do you have an alternative explanation?

  19. TINGED FRINGE.

    Chuka Umama for me.

    Looks good for a start, a pre requisite for success sadly

  20. Latest YouGov/Sun results 21st Dec CON 40%, LAB 40%, LD 9%; APP -23

  21. That should say 22nd Dec

  22. Locked at 40s. So it is a Christmas truce then.

    On that note, Merry Xmas to you all.

  23. chrislane1945 @ “TINGED FRINGE.

    “Chuka Umama for me.

    Looks good for a start, a pre requisite for success sadly”

    Like Alex Salmond who has high net approval?

    Oldnat

    What was that you were saying upthread about generalisations from the Westminster situation?

    I think Clem Atlee may be the ugliest PM in my lifetime, in the circumstances he was in, he didn’t do too badly.

  24. “I think Thatcherdid for the Tories in Scotland. They are dwindling also in Wales, the North East and great swathes of the NW. ”

    The Conservatives made a notable advance in Wales and the North West in the 2010 election, although the latter was patchy.

  25. Hal

    One of the reasons I don’t think I have personally moved politically right in my “more mature years” :-) is that I still distrust “conventional” explanations for phenomena such as VI.

    Treating the 65+ group as a single group is part of the problem.

    Especially in those much older than me, the explanations already given by others about the greater longevity of the wealthier is bound to play a significant role.

    Since we have this strange tendency to die off (while it might not produce suitable numbers for polling cross breaks, it would be interesting to know if there was a difference between my lot of incredibly young pensioners, John B Dick’s doddering group, and those who are actually old. :-)

  26. Yes – 40/40 and the Lib Dems nowhere still.

    Everything to play for in 2012!

    But the lights are going out all over Europe.

    Best wishes to the marvellous host of this site.

  27. ChrisLane –

    There is a book online here with the full text of the act and a legal commentary (warning, it’s a 40MB pdf!):

    http://ia600504.us.archive.org/8/items/representationof00frasrich/representationof00frasrich.pdf

    Very clear in there, only women over the age of 30 were given the Parliamentary vote, but women could vote at the age of 21 in local elections.

  28. Anthony

    As always, you are right. While a woman could gain the Parliamentary franchise on various conditions, they were all in addition to her being 30 or older.

  29. @OldNat

    ‘Is there much demand these days among Greek Cypriots for Enosis’

    It was always a right wing idea with a lot of Greek Orthodox Church blessing. The church and its Arch Bishop have always been seen as the guardians of ‘Hellenism’ in Cyprus throughout the last 2500 years. Without a political leader, always under various foreign powers throughout its history, the Arch Bishop has acted both as the political leader and religious leader – then becoming known as the Ethnark (Leader (Fuhrer?)). The last religious leader combined with Head of State was of course Bishop Makarios. He was deposed by a Greek Junta inspired right wing coup in 1974, because strangely he refused to illegally lead Cyprus into union with Greece (known as Enosis). That gave the excuse Turkey had been looking for to intervene (invade) in July 1974. Turkey took over large areas of the Northern Cyprus about 40% of the total land area, imposed military rule and started a campaign of ethnic cleansing of Greek Cypriot. Turkish Cypriots,in the South, feared reprisals, fled to the British Bases and thence to Turkey and back into Northern Cyprus. Thus the situation has remained, with about 40,000 Turkish troops on the island. About 80,000 Turkish Cypriots live in the North and there are about 120,000 Turkish settlers living in the North transferred in from Turkey. Tur4kish soldier have the vote and with the settlers outvote the Turkish Cypriots about 2:1. The North declared itself the ‘Turkish Republic of North Cyprus’. It was hoped that bi-communial talks would lead to reunification, but the North wants a loose Confederal system whilst the South wants a centralised Federal system. Other issues such as the removal of Turkish troops, settlers stay/go?, illegal land deeds etc. all confound the problem. From the Greek side, most want an acknowledgement that they have been ‘wronged’ and compensation for lost lands, businesses and relatives. Few I think actually would return to the North, esopecially as their land has been built on and the houses occupied/sold.

    To answer your question on Enosis – it was very much paid lip service to by the population as a whole, but a strident rallying cry for the Church and Right wingers. Today I don’t seem to hear too much about it in discussions and I think the younger element would not be in favour. At least Greek Cypriots are now talking about the right wing Coup against Makarios and our Communist President actually attended a memorial service for the Greek Cypriot loyalists killed by the Coupists at the time. That is something no previous President would have dared to do. The attitude of the church is still probably pro-enosis and they still have a huge influence on policy implementation. It is often not getting laws passed that is the problem, but getting them enforced evenhandedly by the police.

  30. Old Nat,the Jericho story is a fascinating one,especially
    as I believe that the walls did not fall down; as this has
    been found to be perhaps the oldest inhabited site on
    earth.Perhaps a suitable note to wish you and everyone
    else a very happy xmas and new year.

  31. @Hal

    As old nat says, the wealthy live longer, the wealthy are more likely to vote tory…

    But I don’t know what data exists for people actually switching to the Tories in their 60’s. Dont know if there have been any longitudinal studies

  32. Frank G,

    “The church and its Arch Bishop have always been seen as the guardians of ‘Hellenism’ in Cyprus throughout the last 2500 years”

    I very much doubt that.

  33. @Valerie, OldNat

    Yes it would be interesting to find the data on longevity and wealth and see if the effect is big enough to explain the change in VI with ageing.

    And as you say, it would be very interesting to break down the 65+ group (has that ever been done?).

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