Also published today are new voting intention figures from TNS-BMRB. Topline figures with changes from their previous poll at the end of November are CON 35%(-1), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), Others 16%.

No obvious sign of any veto boost for the Conservatives here. The poll was conducted over the weekend, so it looks as though the veto boost may have subsided by the time the fieldwork began.


203 Responses to “TNS-BMRB – CON 35%, LAB 38%, LD 11%”

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  1. First!

    Even though the veto bounce was extremely short-lived, it’s clear that the support Labour won from the Lib Dems is extremely ‘soft’ and can be won by the Tories easily – especially seeing as they’re in government and have the tools to do things such as pull troops out of wars and cut taxes before election time.

    Ed Miliband needs to step up his charm offensive on ex-Lib Dem voters. They’re where the election will be won – he’ll have a hard time winning over the Tory vote (indeed, the last Yougov poll showed that the Tories have won over more Labour voters than Labour have won over Tory voters).

  2. Well the veto bounce didn’t last long. Maybe Cameron will need an assault on an Island somewhere to distract voters………..let me think..hmm Falklands maybe?

  3. M Jones

    Even though the veto bounce was extremely short-lived, it’s clear that the support Labour won from the Lib Dems is extremely ‘soft’ and can be won by the Tories easily
    —————————————————-
    I don’t think there’s much evidence that the ‘veto’ bounce came from ex-Libdems. I haven’t had time to look at all the polling in detail. Which firm(s) would you say showed that it was ex-Dems who moved to Con?

    YG seemed to show it was DKs from all 2010 political affiliations, especially those in the C2DE category, who enjoyed Cameron’s anti-EZ spat.
    8-)

  4. Observer

    ………..let me think..hmm Falklands maybe?

    ————————————————-
    North Korea? Iran? The sabres are already being rattled. :-(

  5. Iran is the most likely after Syria is dealt with

  6. Slightly confused by and have suspicions of the details of this poll.

    1. Why is the poll of 1231 respondents only weighted to a total of 1197 respondents? Is this usual and which what decides the composition of the missing 34?

    2. Are all respondents even checked to verify they are eligible to vote in GB elections?

    3. Are all respondents asked if they are even registered to vote and if so, in which region are they registered and are they registered in more than one region?

    4. There seems to be an awful lot of youngsters (18-24) and far too few oldies (65+). Yet 57% of those 18-24 group did not vote in 2010 and a further 6% said they voted but would not specify for whom. So the opinions as to GE2010 is known in only 37% of the group. But the VI of the complete group is taken into account in the overall VI.

    There are so many areas of inconsistencies that, I don’t think the details stand up to close scrutiny and I would not touch the ‘results’ with a proverbial barge pole.

    Not so much ‘OnLineBus’ as ‘OnYourBus’.

  7. Frank

    I think these are the same folk that did the polling for Kim Jung-un

  8. Richard In Norway

    Ah So! Isn’t Korean read from left to right, or top to bottom, or something similar! If I was the analyst, I would not expect a long career or something that sounds like it!

  9. Frank – your Q2 and 3 would apply equally to all companies. None of the main pollsters regularly ask if people are on the electoral register. Q4 the weighted age totals look entirely correct to me, and in a representative sample it is reasonable that most under 25s won’t have voted (a fifth of them will have been unable to because of age for starters). Nothing at all wrong here.

    Your Q1 is a bit odd.

  10. @ Amber Star

    “North Korea? Iran? The sabres are already being rattled.”

    I don’t think there will be conflict in North Korea. They have nuclear weapons. That tends to change the equation on determining whether there will be conflict.

    I don’t know about Iran. But Iran would not be a Falklands style war but more like a World War III given Iran’s size and military strength.

  11. Anthony

    I found their description of how they deal with those who couldn’t remember their 2010 vote interesting.

    “Data is also weighted to the 2010 General Election results. Respondents who could not recall their vote were given an imputed value based on their demographic characteristics in order to allow the weights to be calculated.”

    Does anyone else handle weightings that way?

  12. Oldnat – nope. The other pollsters who weight by past vote (ICM, Populus, ComRes, Angus Reid) just have a certain proportion of the sample as don’t knows/won’t says.

  13. Anthony

    Ta

    Seems to me that you would need to have helluva good demographics (and perhaps a mind probe) to estimate how someone might have voted previously!

  14. So cal

    No president at war has ever been voted out, so I’m told

  15. MJONES

    “it’s clear that the support Labour won from the Lib Dems is extremely ‘soft’ and can be won by the Tories easily”

    Absolutely nothing that suggests the Tory ‘summit walk-out’ boost came because of ex-LD’s changing back from Labour to LD…

    You are IMO way off beam with that assertion !!

    Moreover this boost was actually about how soft the UKIP vote is when faced with a Euro-bashing Tory PM (and how some Labour voters temporarily switch to Tory for same sceptic reasons).

  16. OBSERVER

    “Maybe Cameron will need an assault on an Island somewhere to distract voters.”

    How about the Isle of Man? That should bring that Roger Mexico into line, and get him onto proper partisan posts, instead of these damn facts that he insists on referring to!

  17. @Anthony

    Thanks.

    I can understand polling companies, wanting to know opinions on such things as washing powder,etc., not bothering about eligibility to vote in UK elections, but if your research is about how the UK would vote, isn’t being eligible a paramount precondition? Shouldn’t the criteria be: Are you eligible to vote in UK elections and where are you registered?

    If you don’t know how 63% of a particular age group voted, how can you ensure it is representative? Does any polling company take into account that someone in the age group 18-24 in May 2010 may not be in that age group NOW and most likely won’t be in the age group come 2015.

  18. I think whilst we’re smashing the bankers and fighting tax evasion, invading the Isle of Man’s not a bad idea.

    Although, as a Special Constable on the IoM and a Detective Constable on the mainland I might have to intern myself or something…

  19. @OldNat

    Don’t pick of the Isle of Man, they were still at war with Germany until recently

  20. @FrankG,

    I imagine the polling companies wouldn’t trust those polled to accurately remember, or record, whether they were registered to vote or not.

    After all their past vote recollections are fairly wayward most of the time..

  21. Oldnat

    Might be a tough nut to crack, they all have three legs, don’t they?

  22. @Richard In Norway

    “they all have three legs, don’t they?”

    Isn’t that why it’s called the Isle of Man?

  23. Anthony

    Are you planning a thread on YG’s polling in GB, Germany, France & Denmark?

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/yv7wz4w1kg/YG-Archives-Eurozone-Fourcountries-201211.pdf

    Or can I point out here, how similar the English and French are in their views? :-)

  24. So 3 polls in a row that show a Labour lead,and as soon as there is a blip showing a lead for the Tories it’s broadcast news.Why are all the newspapers and most news channels (except channel 4) so wrapped in the coalition.Even the Graun is intent on Ed Millibands character asassination .I read this page most nights , but rarely comment due to being moderated .If there where a snap election tommorow ,who truely believes the Tories would get anywhere near a working majority .The liberals are abusted flush and would be lucky to poll half there 2010 vote .Labour had a good swing in Wardley byelection with a good second place in a safe Tory council seat the liberals came 5th.Wierd how voting doesn’t reflect the polls.

  25. Interesting post over on centre left blog

    “Compare and contrast:

    a. Tory MP, snapped next to man dressed as Nazi, sacked.
    b. Labour MP invites real, declared anti-Semite to speak at Westminster: still in post.

    I am no fan of the Tories, but…something’s not right here.”

  26. Fascinating Poll OLDNAT-thanks

  27. @OldNat

    “Or can I point out here, how similar the English and French are in their views?”

    Are we talking about the same survey – Britain and France seemed a channel apart! The real similarity was Germany and Demark with only a few streams and the Kiel Canal between them.

    By the way the survey was dealing with ‘countries’ not ‘Nations’, so it was ‘British’ not ‘English’.

  28. Eurozone Survey

    The weightings used in this poll look a little suspect:

    Britain Weighting 1721 Population 60,587,000

    Germany Weighting 1053 Population 82,217,800

    France Weighting 978 Population 63,601,002

    Denmark Weighting 1008 Population 5,368,854

    The fourth country would have been more appropiate if it had been Ireland, Sweden, Norway, Czechoslavakia, Italy. In fact almost any of them apart from Denmark!

  29. Headlines on all channels an on web tonight:

    “Shoot rioters’ plan”

    Time for another Tory poll boost…?

  30. Another OT post:

    NASA announce discovery of first earth type planets in the Universe !!

    Yes term has ended :D

  31. “The weightings used in this poll look a little suspect:”

    Just realised – the weightings probably related to their likelihood of retaining a AAA rating. Hence France bottom of the four with only 978!

  32. Interesting that even in Britain, the view is that they’re right to go ahead with the treaty without Britain and that the new rules are a good thing.

    So support for Cameron’s veto is purely nationalistic.
    This is something that the Cons could capitalise on – since the support has no practical value (since we got nothing practical from it and want nothing practical from it) it shows that meaningless nationalistic policies are a vote winner.
    This is a ‘traditional’ Con area so there would be no upset in them pursuing token policies.

    Surely this also indicates that the gov can capitalise on next year’s olympics to gain support?

  33. Frank G

    I presumed that you would realise I was being mischevious!

    However, since YG wouldn’t have been polling NI, it wasn’t polling a “country”. It would have polled 3 countries within a state, or 3 nations within a state, but not the country=state that is the UK.

  34. Old Nat is right the French and British scores are almost exactly the same, just going in different directions. Merkel comes out best with some really good scores, she really played a blinder!!

  35. @OldNat

    Actually all four countries/nations are in a bit of a state, some more than others!

    It did presumably poll three nations in the “Britain” element namely England, Scotland and Wales! I wonder which one(s) gave all those more ‘EU positive’ responses.

  36. @Richard In Norway

    Merkel comes out best with some really good scores, she really played a blinder!!

    Yep, sooner or later the rest of the EU will realise that Germany has got precisely what it seems to have wanted from all this.

  37. FrankG

    There’s a key to that in this YG poll – p6 onwards

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/66o7mthsox/Sunday%20Times%20Results%20111216%20VI%20and%20Trackers.pdf

    Scottish attitudes to the EU haven’t really been polled.

    It has been often said that Scots aren’t necessarily enthusiastic about centralism in the EU set-up, but they may be less virulent in their opposition to co-operating with other nations than many south of the border. That has certainly been demonstrated in a number of polls. Indeed, one could argue that the wish of many Scots to maintain a link with the other nations in the UK is further evidence of that approach.

    GB, Sco,
    Attitudes to EU
    12, 18, More integration
    16, 24, Status quo
    37, 23, Less integration/Withdrawal

    Being outside the Eurozone
    13, 14, Worse off out
    55, 44, Better off out
    17, 27, No difference

    Voting intention in an EU referendum
    41, 27, Leave the EU
    41, 52, Stay in the EU

    Who should control – Agriculture & Fisheries
    55, 51, Britain only
    32, 38, Shared – Britain/EU
    4, 3, EU alone

    Who should control – Immigration & Asylum
    74, 62, Britain only
    16, 26, Shared – Britain/EU
    3, 6, EU alone

    Who should control – Environmental Issues
    74, 62, Britain only
    16, 26, Shared – Britain/EU
    3, 6, EU alone

    Who should control – Police & Justice
    79, 62, Britain only
    11, 26, Shared – Britain/EU
    2, 6, EU alone

    Who should control – Foreign Policy
    47, 47, Britain only
    37, 33, Shared – Britain/EU
    8, 14, EU alone

    Who should control – Defence
    66, 61, Britain only
    22, 24, Shared – Britain/EU
    4, 8, EU alone

    Who should control – Employment Rules
    66, 60, Britain only
    20, 24, Shared – Britain/EU
    7, 10, EU alone

    Of course, Scots respondents had to do the best they could with options that didn’t include control by Scotland!

    I’m making no claim that this is necessarily an accurate snapshot of Scottish opinion!!! but it may give some indication of different attitudes to “Johnny Foreigner” in Scotland compared to England.

  38. @ Old Nat

    “How about the Isle of Man? That should bring that Roger Mexico into line, and get him onto proper partisan posts, instead of these damn facts that he insists on referring to!”

    Lol. It’d be like invading Grenada!

  39. @OldNat

    Scotland’s attitude compared to the UK is a lot more specifically pro -“United States of Europe” than you maybe imply.

    It was 18% wanted full integration or an EU with a single currency and no internal border controls. So that 18% want to surrender our UK border controls and be forced if necessary to adopt the Euro instead of the Pound. That 18% is far greater than the UK-wide average of 12%. Within the UK some would put its % as mainly down to LD, but in Scotland there is not the same excuse.

    I just don’t see how a people, whom you claim want to run their own affairs and want complete independence for Scotland, can be so pro being an even smaller element of an even more remote governing body, which will give it even less control over its affairs and budget, than it gets from its current situation within the UK.

    For the SNP to have encourage anything that could lead towards such a greater ‘EU Super State’ is to me both ironic and completely illogical.

    However I suspect AW will be getting itchy with the snippers, if we continue this discussion.

  40. FrankG

    I don’t know why AW would get itchy. This is a discussion based on polling evidence.

    My conclusions are tentative, because the Scots sample is small and not based on the Scottish demographic.

    Just to correct your characterisation of my position, I am not saying that the Scots want “complete independence for Scotland” – if for no other reason than the polling evidence contradicts that.

    In any case, I would never misrepresent the wish of many by adding the qualifier “complete” to “independence”. Having the sovereignty to decide which whether we want to share parts of that sovereignty, and which parts to share, and with whom, would be a better description.

  41. @frankg @oldnat

    perhaps the 18% aren’t supporters of scottish independence? it would be consistent to support tight integration on a european level and short of that, at least on a uk level.

  42. @Old Nat – “… it may give some indication of different attitudes to “Johnny Foreigner” in Scotland compared to England.”

    The Comres/Independent poll for 10th December had a number of Europe questions.

    One aspect I found slightly surprising… here is my post:

    “On this poll we have in descending order of euro-scepticism:

    BNP, UKIP, PC, SNP, Con, LD, Lab, Green.

    DE, C2, C1, AB.”

    Just crossbreaks, but SNP more eurosceptic than the Tories? Is it possible the party attracts nationalists?

  43. @OldNat

    “Having the sovereignty to decide which whether we want to share parts of that sovereignty, and which parts to share, and with whom, would be a better description.”

    There is no such things as ‘shared sovereignty’. A sovereign state can delegate (or devolve) certain of its powers to a lesser entity of government, but that does not mean that the entity suddenly has ‘sovereignty’ or becomes a ‘shared sovereign state’. It does not. A sovereign state can withdraw, modify or restrict any delegated powers whenever it wants.

    With regards to ‘Scottish sovereignty’ and any EU Super State, I think that Scotland would find very little freedom to decide what is or isn’t delegated powers from ‘Brussels’. I also think that such powers would be far less than what Scotland currently enjoys under devolution. Scotland within the EU sphere is a much smaller entity than Scotland within the UK sphere.

  44. YouGov…..

    L 40
    C39
    LD 10

    App -20

  45. Billy Bob

    I did notice your comment at the time, but forebore to respond.

    I presumed then (and now) that you were referring to the question “The euro crisis provides an ideal opportunity for Britain to leave the EU altogether”.

    The “Agree” responses to that were – Party (in your order), % of their supporters, (number of respondents)

    BNP 94% (19), UKIP 89% (126), PC 73% (8), SNP 59% (29), Con 58% (327), LD 48% (79), Lab 45% (294), Green 22% (22).

    At the time, I did consider ridiculing your attempt to rank the parties on the basis of somewhat meaningless samples (8 PCs rather stood out!)

    I suggested tentative readings from one set of polling data. You make absolute statements from an even more subdivided set of data.

    I rest my case.

  46. FrankG

    I think of Denmark as a sovereign state which has decided to share aspects of its sovereignty. You presumably don’t.

    Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.

    I’ll happily take Denmark’s actual position over Scotland’s actual position.

    That you wish to indulge in esoteric definitions of political purity is fine, and will allow you to while away these long sunny days! :-)

  47. Frank G

    “I just don’t see how a people, whom you claim want to run their own affairs and want complete independence for Scotland, can be so pro being an even smaller element of an even more remote governing body, which will give it even less control over its affairs and budget, than it gets from its current situation within the UK.”

    You are puzzled because you are sure that your conclusion is logical, but that means that one or more of your premises must be false.

    They are:

    1 Scots want independence (complete or otherwise)
    2 Nearby control is necessarily better informed on, and more responsive to local needs, than more distant control.
    3 More power is exercised as a larger part of a small union than a smaller part of a larger union.

    All of these premises can be challenged.

    Remember we are comparing an existing union with a single dominant partner which determines the rules of the union, against a structured union organised by design to maximise fairness to all parties. It might be different with a federal UK.

    If you ask Scotitish fishermen whether they think they would get a more sympathetic hearing in the EU by making their own case in Europe than if they rely on the British Government (with the English interest predominating) then you would get the most pro-EU response that you could find anywhere in these islands.

    The point of a union is that you give up control in exchange for other benefits. The deal depends on the amount of both.

    Clearly, some considerable number believe that the EU is a fairer, more competent, more participatory, more democratic, or beter informed union than the UK union.

    You could look to the rules of engagement in the UK union if you wanted to redress the balance. That was what devolution was for. The question is “Is that enough?”

  48. Bily Bob

    “Just crossbreaks, but SNP more eurosceptic than the Tories? Is it possible the party attracts nationalists?”

    It is certainly true that there is a body of opinion that withdrawal from the EU (or a republic) would be more likely if Scotland were independent, or perhaps that at the least, referenda on these matters would be more likely to be granted.

    The numbers are tiny.

  49. @OldNat

    Thanks

    Just for the record it is not political purity but legal definitions. What Denmark has today is not the same powers as it will be allowed to keep as delegated or devolved matters in the US of E.

    Also for the record it was also a little chillier today about 20c, (68F) with lots of sun as usual, but tonight its down to 12C (53F). Winter should be over by mid Mar though.

  50. @Old Nat – “I suggested tentative readings from one set of polling data. You make absolute statements from an even more subdivided set of data.”

    Funnily enough, I didn’t make any absolute statement… just a tentative reading from the polling data.

    I wondered if *some* people who express an SNP VI might be identifying with the “nationalist” tag rather than being attracted to specific policies on international cooperation. The other surprising aspect was that those expressing an LD VI were more eurosceptic than Labour supporters.

    I thought perhaps that any indication, however slight, which challenges received wisdom, might be worthy of further investigation.

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