Polls tonight

I am out tonight, so won’t be updating the blog until later. Due tonight we will have the daily YouGov poll for the Sun, and I am expecting Populus’s monthly poll for the Times. We have also yet to see anything from ICM for the Guardian this month.

I’ll update later when I return.


71 Responses to “Polls tonight”

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  1. any other polls out later?

  2. @Adrian B,

    If his brother were in charge, Labour would be well clear by now. Of that, I have absolutely no doubt.

  3. Billy bob

    Oh dear, was I that obvious. :smile:

  4. As it is, Labour has to win the next ge IN SPITE of Ed, not because of him.

  5. LEETAY
    Glad to see Tory vote still up on general election and that the government still out poll the opposition though.

    Government parties support: 47%
    Lab + others (i.e. non government parties): 53%

    Anyway – nobody votes for a coalition in FPTP.

  6. @Ambivalent.

    This is the point I am trying to make but am getting rather savaged by the odd Labour person!

    Even the Americans like Hilary Clinton loved David Miliband! Not unhelpful on a political level. lol

    rich

  7. @AMBIVALENTSUPPORTER

    I pretty much agree with this re ‘clear fragility in Labour’s support.’ The Labour lead was a house of straw that blew down in the first gale. If Ed had said that they would give the voters a referendum to decide on any proposed treaty, it would have pulled the rug from under the Tories and put Cameron in a lot of trouble.

    I’m not euro skeptic, but believe you should never be afraid of the voters will. After all, that is why we joined the Common Market.

    Ed needs to build with bricks from now on.

  8. @IanAnthonyJames,

    I didn’t say they wouldn’t win with Ed – just that they wouldn’t win a majority. I actually think a Tory majority in 2015 is far from certain as well!

  9. @AmbivalentSupporter

    “I didn’t say they wouldn’t win with Ed – just that they wouldn’t win a majority. I actually think a Tory majority in 2015 is far from certain as well!”

    That’s much more like it and a welcome return to form. Some of your earlier posts were tending towards conviction but it’s good to see that you’ve quickly returned to almost horoscopic ambivalence! lol

  10. Richard o

    ” Hilary Clinton loved David Miliband!”

    She also loved bill and look how he turned out. :smile:

  11. If David Miliband was in charge, instead of being chased by stories about a Labour leader being put there my the unions, we’d be chased with stories about a Labour leader who back-stabs his own party when it suits him.

    Personally, I would find it more productive if the country concentrated more on which party is the best fir the country and less on which party scores the most points in a presidential beauty contest, but maybe that’s just me.

  12. @ Paul,

    Funnilly enough I am not eurosceptic either, despite being Tory. People like Bill Cash have done little to help the overall party position with the public. Extremes of anything are never great.

    What I would say though, is that I saw a furious Lib Dem MEP on TV after the veto, attaching Cameron and isolation etc, but the absolute long & short of it is that the MEP was totally wrong, as about 75% of the voting public are moderately or mildly eurosceptic, and don’t want the EU to have to approve our national budget (one part of the latest agreement).

    I want to stay in the EU, but the whole part of this is that all MPs in Westminster know that if you gave the country a referendum it would be a thumping no in terms of more EU regulation and fiscal/monetary union. This is as close to fact as you are going to get!

    richo

  13. @CrossBat11,

    Nice to see you are your usual arrogant, biased and rude self. You amuse me greatly with your quips.

  14. @CrossBat11,

    When I need political insights, no doubt I’ll just ask you. After all, you always predict 1) Labour are doing brilliantly 2) They will definitely win a majority in 2015 (if, indeed, the coalition lasts that long). Coming from a self-confessed ‘biased’ Labourite that is so insightful!!

  15. :smile::smile::smile:

  16. Ed may or may not have been the best choice as leader but whoever it was would be faring little differently as there is a mountain to climb.
    Arguably Milli senior whilst being more telegenic and having a higher initial profile than Ed would have split to PLP due to his prevarication when Purnell resigned.
    IMO People saying Ed and Lab doing badly are judging against and unrealistic target of winning an OM in 2015.
    Judged against a more realistic target of stopping a Conservative OM and possibly being the largest party (seats more possible than votes) they are doing OK; not good but OK.
    Rightly or wrongly once a loser you remain a loser so even stopping a cons OM and polling say 37% would mean Ed would have to stand down. Step up Yvette to lead us to victroy in 2020.

  17. No great surprise at the drift back in the polls – of all the various poll movements in recent months, the boost and them subsequent decline to Tory support was the most widely predicted by posters of all shades, I would say – signs that we can agree on some things perhaps?

    Someone raised the interesting point about whether this means the Tories will forge ahead in an election campaign, as they still seem to be able to gain traction when required.
    I suspect this will depend on the trust levels left by then. Blair was able to go doe eyed and say ‘trust me, I’m an ordinary kind of guy…’, and for a long, long time, we did. However, once the trust goes, that kind of approach just gets people irritated.

    Cameron has started with a lower reservoir of goodwill, but against Labour’s record there is still a strong relative flow of trust to the Tories. In politics, this never lasts forever, and the question will be how many mistakes are made and how many people get turned off the Cameron charm permanently. Once this happens, people just don’t listen to the message, however good it actually is.

  18. Much hilarity in Euroland. It turns out the deal to use the IMF as a mechanism to channel funds to the EZ bailout (that avoids the illegality of doing it directly) requires Spain and Italy to contribute a total of 38b euros to the pot to bail themselves out!

    Talk about farce.

  19. @AmbivalentSupporter

    “Nice to see you are your usual arrogant, biased and rude self. ”

    Steady on. Arrogant and rude, yes, but biased? Moi? Never!!

  20. @Alec

    “Much hilarity in Euroland. It turns out the deal to use the IMF as a mechanism to channel funds to the EZ bailout (that avoids the illegality of doing it directly) requires Spain and Italy to contribute a total of 38b euros to the pot to bail themselves out!”

    Isn’t this the ultimate in self reliance? A bit like asking anaemics to donate to a blood bank for the collective good of mankind. We couldn’t be on to something here!

  21. @CrossBat11,

    I suppose….in your defence, you do have a very good sense of humour. :smile:

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