YouGov/Sun – CON 38, LAB 42, LDEM 9
19 Dec 2011
Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. We are back to a four point Labour lead, and it looks as though the Conservative veto boost has indeed begun to fade away. The full tabs for the Sun also have the regular questions on leader perceptions, which show the boost Cameron recieved in his own ratings also beginning to fade.
I was expecting the monthly Populus poll for the Times to appear tonight as well, as I understand the fieldwork was done over the weekend, but so far nothing has appeared on their website. Perhaps it will be in Wednesday’s paper.
Filed under: Voting Intention, YouGov
The trends and the election
results between 1979 and 1983, it’s perfectly
credible that the Tories could have won without
any of the well known anti-Labour factors.
Tory support did go very low in 1981, but really
only around the time of the SDP bubble.
It recovered off that nadir to 30%+ before the Falklands
invasion.
In late 1979/1980, i.e. before the SDP was formed, it did look
like Labour would have got back into office if they had
stayed together and not elected Foot.
But the Tory figures were also higher than in 1981,
and it’s not conclusive.
The Falklands was a catalyst which made people look
at the Governments overall domestic strategy in a different
longer term light than previously,
BTW, I see the split in the Labour Party as being more
fundamental a point than the Falklands or
any unfavourable/favourable positions on the economy.
ALEC
“There is also a second critical factor, which I’m surprise @Oldnat and others haven’t pulled you up on. You talk about national vote share in the 2011 locals, but conveniently forget that Scotland wasn’t included. If it had been, it’s a racing cert that Labour would have won the popular vote. ”
I’m pretty certain this point is incorrect.
National vote projections do allow for areas that don’t vote – that’s why they exist.
It is difficult to do it for a whole area not voting – such as Scotland, however,
but they do make an estimate on the basis of what was most recent.
RiN
Too restrictive. “The BBC is a Unionist propaganda machine!”
Race you to the top! :-)
JOE JAMES B @ ALEC
I have no idea how the UK “national” projections are worked out from the English locals and anything else that was going on on that day.
However, it may have escaped attention that we had a General Election, while the Wallops were engrossed in their council elections.
If no one bothered to take that into account, then their psephological antennae must have atrophied.
They are built from key wards
but T&R use more wards than the BBC.
They effectively have to make an estimate for areas which don’t vote
which in 2011 would be Scotland
and London – even larger.
I paid attention to all the election results with great interest, including Scotland.
The SNP won a landslide – surely you can get rid of that chip in victory.