The full tabs for YouGov’s poll are now up here. The topline figures for the poll were positive for Labour, showing them ahead again (though it remains to be seen if that’s just a blip), but the rest of the poll is less so.

On leader ratings David Cameron has his best scores since June, with a net approval of minus 6. Ed Miliband’s score is minus 31 (from minus 32 last week). Nick Clegg’s ratings have slumped to their worst ever, with a net rating of minus 55 (largely, it seems because Conservative supporters are giving him a mich more negative rating).

On the Euro summit, 56% of people still think it was right for Cameron to use the veto (slightly, but not significantly, down from 58% straight after the summit). On whether people would vote to leave the EU in a referendum the result was 41% leave, 41% go – quite a sharp shift from recent polling that had up to 50% in favour of Britain leaving the EU.

This doesn’t seem to be a particular surge in pro-European feeling (other questions in the poll were repeats from earlier polls and didn’t show a massive shift). It may have just been the question ordering in this poll leading to a more considered response – the referendum question came after a bank of questions asking whether people think various areas should be the responsiblity of Britain, the EU or shared between them. Large majorities of people think that things like immigration, justice, defence and employment rights should be decided by Britain alone, but there is more appetite for the EU having a role in things like the environment, foriegn policy and trade rules.

The rest of the poll asked about the leaderships of Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband. Unsurprisingly in the wake of the European summit the Liberal Democrats are seem as having less influence on the coalition than the last time YouGov asked. In September 48% of people though that the Lib Dems had a lot or a little influence in government, that has now fallen to 39%, with 54% thinking they have not a lot or none. 41% of people now think the coalition will last another year or less, 38% think it will last until just before or right up until the next planned election in 2015.

On Nick Clegg’s leadership, people like Chris Huhne, Danny Alexander and Tim Farron are all seen as people who would make worse leaders than Clegg, although as one might expect, large propotions of people say they don’t know enough about these people to say (rendering questions like this of rather limited use except for well known politicians). Vince Cable is seen as someone who would be a better leader than Clegg by 22% of people, a worse leader by 23%.

Turning to Ed Miliband’s leadership, his ratings have actually improved slightly since September, though overall they remain very poor. 21% of people think he has provided an effective opposition (up from 18% in September), 23% think he has made it clear what he stands for (up from 19% in September), 20% think he would be up to the job of Prime Minister (up from 19% in September). The perception that he is too close to the trade unions has grown however, 26% now think Miliband is too close to the unions, compared to 19% in September. Asked if Miliband is strong or weak, 14% think he is strong, 44% weak, 28% neither.

Of course, one expects negative ratings from opponents – with questions like this it is often more what a leader’s own supporters think that counts. Even amongst Labour voters, however, Miliband’s figures are mediocre – 43% of Labour supporters think he has provided an effective opposition, 46% that he’s been clear what he stands for, 48% that he would be up to the job of PM, 34% that he is a strong leader.

In questions about whether alternate leaders would be better or worse than Miliband, Ed Balls was seen as likely to make a worse leader, Yvette Cooper and Jim Murphy were seen as worse (but both had high don’t knows), David Miliband was seen as someone who would be a better leader by 41% of people (and 41% of Labour voters), compared to 10% who think he’d be worse. Whether Labour really could oust a leader and replace him with his brother without it looking irredeemably odd is an interesting question, although when YouGov asked directly about whether it was right for Ed Miliband to challenge his brother in the first place 58% thought there was nothing wrong with it.

Finally on Ed, YouGov asked if Ed Miliband was ever likely to be Prime Minister. Only 17% of people think it is likely, 69% unlikely. Amongst Labour party voters 52% think it is unlikely Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. The kindest thing one can say about Miliband’s ratings is that they are moving in the right direction and he does at least have time on his side… but not an infinite amount of it.


177 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – full report”

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  1. The sheep

    The polling in north Korea is in and the results are conclusive, 100% of the weighted sample said that Kim Jung-un should be the next leader. The weighted sample was less clear cut with only 95% support for Kim Jung-un the other 5% refused to answer for medical reasons

  2. Second weighted should read unweighted, oh for an edit function

  3. @RiN,

    *Chortle*

    Apparently there are “public demonstrations of grief” in the streets of Pyongyang.

    Nice to know there’s still a little bit of the past living on in East Asia….

  4. AmberStar

    @ Old Nat

    If having over 300,000 voting members & affiliates, all resident in Scotland, is a ‘weakness’, I’d like to see the reasons why
    ___________________

    Oh come off it, how many of that 300,000 are not Labour supporters? I have read that thousands of SNP supporters have voted in the labour leadership election too.

    Labour need to grasp the fact that in Scotland not all union members support Labour.

  5. @Colin

    I did not mean to imply that Neanderthals were brutish. I’m sure they lived in harmony and were kind to their children.
    But they were unable to adjust to changing circumstances and became extinct! I expect the same thing to happen to those whose view of family life belongs to the 1950’s.

    Remember the Janet and John” books anyone? :-)

    .

  6. @Oldnat – “When Thatcher came and patronised the Kirk with her particularly offensive set of pronouncements, it was immediately nicknamed the “Sermon on the Mound”.”

    Of course – I do apologise. I remember now – the seven fishes were deep fried in batter.

  7. Alec

    And they were haddock, not cod.

  8. BTW – I’ve seen several reports suggesting that the ratings agencies are on the verge of stripping France of it’s AAA rating, and that this is likely to happen before Christmas.

    While I don’t wish economic upset on anyone, given the shockingly inappropriate tone of recent anti UK interventions by French officials and even their central bankers, this couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of our continental neighbours.

  9. Frank G

    “My mind immediately pictured some hairy legged Scotsman wearing a kilt and brandishing a club before changing into a sexual … in Nuendo. Where is Nuendo by the way?”

    Nuendo is a music production softwaresystem.

  10. @OLDNAT

    Just had a peek at the data on the leadership wiki. In the cases of Tom Harris and Ken Macintosh the (Scots?) members had the higher percentage than the PLPs and the unions, while in the case of Johann Lamont the members’ votes were out stripped by PLP & unions.

    Add to that, the majority of the members voted for Ken Macintosh, which pretty much says to me that being a member of the party is pointless, as your vote will never matter while the unions and the Labour MPs are voting.

    I find that a strange system, given that the Labour Party members are probably the more loyal (MPs are never to be trusted, and union members tend to be less well informed and more inclined to vote according to what the union leaders recommend).

    Comparing the unions’ votes for the leader and deputy leader, it would seem that the unions (the leaders) had picked their team. Interesting that they wanted Ian Davidson (controversial due to: monarchy, SNP, and the ‘giving her a doing’ episode).

    I also note that the majority of the contenders were Glasgow/central belt, and the one that wasn’t got few votes.

  11. “While I don’t wish economic upset on anyone, given the shockingly inappropriate tone of recent anti UK interventions by French officials and even their central bankers, this couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of our continental neighbours.”

    Merry Christmas Mr. Cameron

    I like the write up Boris has made. Lots of amusing bits.

    h ttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/8964824/EU-crisis-The-Frogs-do-love-us-theyre-just-hopping-mad-with-Germany.html

  12. @Anthony Wells

    The issue with politicians ( especially Tory ones ) is that nobody cares whether personally they are nice or not but have they made the voters richer. Only Macmillan and Thatcher have passed that test since 1955.

  13. Wolf

    Well that’s this generation of politicans stuffed until at least 2025 but more likely 2030

  14. VALERIE

    @”I expect the same thing to happen to those whose view of family life belongs to the 1950?s.”

    I have no idea what this ridiculous sneer means-either from you or Clegg.

    I was a child in the 1950s. The family I was borne into were working class people who worked their socks off to care for & educate their two children & help them progress.

    What on earth was wrong with that.?

    I owe my parents a tremendous debt of gratitude, and find the sneers of people like you & Clegg both offensive & ignorant.

    Do you imagine family life today is so much better for our children? Before you answer study some of the international comparisons on child well-being.

  15. Watched Hague’s Press Conference with his German opposite number.

    The latter could hardly have done more to emphasise the importance of the relationship within EU.

    He agreed that UK was right to concentrate on the importance of the single market, competitiveness reforms, international trade etc etc. He said Germany was not out to “get at” The City of London.

    An entirely different tone to that being heard from le petit coq.

  16. In every generation there are those that sneer at the old-fashioned values of the one before, and those that decry the morale degradation of their own generation.

    Somehow the world keeps turning and we never quite descend into Sodom and Gomorrah.

  17. NEILA

    @”Somehow the world keeps turning and we never quite descend into Sodom and Gomorrah.”

    Well one should hope so!
    If Sodom & Gomorrah is your benchmark for a problem worthy of note , then we have reached a pretty poor place.

    The comparative status of child wellbeing in the UK as set out by UNICEF, OECD,Save the Children etc is damning enough despite the absence of a Sodom & Gomorrah category.

    Certainly enough to put the smug self satisfied sneering about the superiority of “modern” attitudes to ” family ” into some perspective.

  18. We forget that moral standards were very lax outside of the gentry in the Victorian age, even worse than now. Strange that!!

  19. @COLIN
    I have had two replies to Valerie moderated, I suppose reading them they are a bit ott. However, may I associate myself with your comments entirely. I was adopted by a middle class couple who had recently graduated from the working class. I went to council schools and associated with mainly working class kids. Until Grammar School, where a mix of middle, upper middle and working class kids all attended together. The bad old days.

  20. And if you go back further, into the 18th Century, they were diabolical.

    People forget that the UK murder rate is actually, historically, very low at the moment…

  21. Statgeek

    One can only speculate as to why SLab decided not to publish the actual numbers in addition to the percentages.

    All political parties spin, of course. SLab may have been concerned that the publication of the actual numbers would have demonstrated that their claims of mass support would be contradicted by the data.

    Their concentration on the number of ballot papers sent out (which included multiple papers sent to the same individual – including to SNP members!) is the same tactic that I would have used in their position!

    A departure from previous practice (as when the UKLab results were announced) does suggest that there was a deliberate decision to do so. One can only speculate as to the reason. Obvious possibilities are
    * High turnout from a low membership
    * Low turnout from a high membership
    * Low turnout from a low membership.

  22. @Colin – clearly you are a bit upset over some of the comments/tone on the families debate, but I wasn’t sure that Clegg was ‘sneering’ at the traditional family? He did clearly state that children in a household of two loving parents was a preferable arrangement, but I thought his main critique was that there are better ways to direct £3.5b of spending, suggesting that a blanket subsidy for marraige would do little to tackle the actual problems some families face.

    I thought you were being a bit unfair on him, as these are perfectly valid points – the same points being raised about a host of other benefits, including on ocassions I’m sure, by yourself?

  23. @ Neil A

    “I am proposing that it’s none of the State’s business why women choose to have (or end up having) children.”

    I agree.

    (What is it with you and I agreeing on everything lately?)

  24. CHOU

    Thanks.

    Alec

    Read what Clegg actually said.

    Anyway-enough said.

    I’m sure everything is just fine & dandy-and so much better than the 18th Century.

    :-)

  25. Neil A
    *Chortle*
    Apparently there are “public demonstrations of grief” in the streets of Pyongyang.
    Nice to know there’s still a little bit of the past living on in East Asia….

    By their response to the demise of their leaders shall ye know them.

    I wonder how we looked as a nation when we became emotionally incontinent after the death of a doe-eyed simpering adulteress.

  26. Oh come off it, how many of that 300,000 are not Labour supporters? I have read that thousands of SNP supporters have voted in the labour leadership election too.

    Labour need to grasp the fact that in Scotland not all union members support Labour.
    ——————————
    It’s awfully nice of them not to opt out of the political contribution. We value their support & look forward to them voting Labour in the future. :-)

  27. @Colin – have done, still can’t quite see why all the fuss.

    Clegg said “My own view is that it is undoubtedly the case that children thrive best when they see their parents are happy together and they have got both mothers and fathers to help in their upbringing.

    “We need to get away from the idea that something on a piece of paper that says if you are married that is good and if you are not married it is not.”

    He also said “We should not take a particular version of the family institution, such as the 1950s model of suit-wearing, breadwinning dad and aproned, homemaking mother, and try and preserve it in aspic.

    “That’s why Open Society Liberals and Big Society Conservatives will take a different view on a tax break for marriage. We can all agree that strong relationships between parents are important, but not agree that the state should use the tax system to encourage a particular family form.”

    The bit about the 1950s family is interesting, as this seems to have particularly hit a nerve in your case. If you combine the various quotes I’ve picked out above, what Clegg actually says is that the stable families are good, the 1950’s version of family life is one version of stable family life, but there are other equally valid versions and we shouldn’t base policy on just one among many lifestyles.

    I can’t really see where the sneering is. Fundamentally, the man’s agreeing with you.

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