There is an ICM poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph with topline figures of CON 40%(+2), LAB 34%(-2), LDEM 14%(nc), Others 14%. Changes are from the last ICM poll at the end of November. Six points is the biggest Tory lead any pollster has shown since last November, and the biggest from ICM since June 2010.

ICM tend to show some of the better figures for the Conservatives (or more accurately, some of the least good figures for Labour, since a primary methodological difference is their reallocation of a proportion of don’t knows to the party they voted for last time, something that tends to help the Lib Dems and hurt Labour) – with YouGov showing a Tory lead of one of two points this week, it’s therefore not surprising that ICM would show an even larger lead.


19 Responses to “ICM/Sunday Telegraph – CON 40, LAB 34, LD 14”

  1. The biggest question is how long will the lead be maintained for.

  2. Can we have please then a possibly update on ‘swingometer’ and ‘UKR Polling average’ as it is, ‘Latest voting intention’

  3. Holy cow! That’s a big Tory lead. I wonder if the Conservatives would think it’s almost too big for their liking (ie. keeping Miliband in place)?

    It’d be interesting to see what it would be if ICM reallocated don’t knows closer to the way other pollsters do it. Seems to me that the big shift from Lib Dem to Labour could invalidate ICM’s methodology somewhat?

  4. Who really believes the LibDems are polling 14%?

  5. Dose Anybody compare ICM to the “Gold Standard” of polls?

    http://w ww7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/12/17/the-tories-move-to-a-6-point-lead-with-icm/

  6. Anthony

    I presume that (many) pollster methodologies are developed in the same way that Generals develop strategies to fight the previous war?

    “Reallocation of a proportion of don’t knows to the party they voted for last time” seems a sensible idea when politics is largely stable, but seems an unwise approach when there is significant turbulence in voting patterns.

    (OK. You won’t answer since you don’t like criticising professional colleagues, but if you do, I promise not to tell!)

  7. Terrible poll for Labour- this is now a firm trend.

    It seems only appalling economic news being at the top of the headlines for weeks on end inches Labour in front.

    If any pother issue dominates the agenda- Ed tends to get it wrong and Labour slip.

    There has been far too much dining out over this last 6 months on Hackgate. Yes Ed called that particular one correctly…but that’s, er, about it!

    Ed is just not resonating nationally as a leader and the Labour top table are not resonating as a team.

    This seems to have gone beyond ‘summit-walkout now and a genuine shift seems to have happened!’

    I suspect 6% is the limit though for a Tory lead (as I do in the other direction). The next election is going to be won within a 3-6% band.

  8. Certainly a serious worry for Labour, these figures would probably give the tories a narrow outright majority on the new boundaries.

  9. That`s a big Tory lead…People win wars and lose elections…Some save the world and lose them!!!…Some veto nothing and pull ahead…Voters are strange…They must be thinking of an election in Tory HQ

  10. Oldnat – the reallocation of don’t knows was invented after 1992, and performed well in 1997, so it can certainly cope when there are big switches in support.

    Whether it is suited to the sort of realignment of support that the collapse in Lib Dem support may be reflecting is a different question.

  11. Well we seem to have sailed out of the “polldrums” copy right Amber :-)

    No doubt we’ll be taking on some new passengers, according to Rob Sheffields law. :-(

  12. Anthony

    Ta.

    The “different question” that you suggest is, i think, the one I meant to ask. :-)

  13. There’s going to be gnashing of teeth in the TP that Dave & Co. went for a fixed term parliament… I think that some on the right would like to offer a post election EU referendum, call a snap GE & make a dash for the finish line.

    But Dave has a couple of good cards in his deck: the boundary changes & ‘the need for stability during difficult times’ so I think he’ll face down any criticism of the 5 year thingie & press on with the Coalition.

    And the current polls: Dead cat bounce.
    8-)

  14. New thread
    YG have Labour ahead
    the Tory Cat is dead :twisted:

    I’m no e.e. am i?

  15. Probably an obvious answer to this question, but ICM publish the details of their polls anywhere?

  16. Matt –

    http://www.icmresearch.com/category/media-centre

    But probably not until Monday

  17. Many thanks.

  18. I wonder if this might have been the 2010 election result without TV debates?

    Anyway, with another recession seemingly around the corner this shouldn’t last. Unless Miliband becomes even more unpopular.

  19. I agree with Matt. I don’t think the Tories would actually want to see too big a lead at this stage. EM suits them down to the ground if the truth be told.