Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, echoing the 2 point Conservative lead we saw yesterday.

The full tables also include a repeat of YouGov’s regular tracker on perceptions of the party leaders’ qualities. The effect of the veto on they way people see David Cameron is obvious – the percentage of people thinking “sticks to what he believes in” applies to Cameron is up 13 points to 39%, “decisive” is up 9 points to 29%, strong is up 5 points to 24%. For what it’s worth the UKIP to Conservative switch doesn’t look as decisive as in yesterday’s poll, with UKIP on 5%.


468 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 40%, LAB 38%, LD 10%”

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  1. Mike N – haven’t finalised it yet, but last we stopped at Xmas and started again after New Year’s Day.

  2. @jay blanc
    You were either not on the site last week when similar comments were made, or a Labour win has made you delirious. No less a poster than AW aided and abetted by Roger Mexico, produced statistics which showed the large number of Asian (largely Indian ) immigrants in the Feltham constituency and the record of their voting pattern. AW went on to say that the pro Labour majority of Asian immigrants, though high was not as blanket as Black people.

    I had no apology for the attack which accused me of racism and no apology for calling my comment twaddle. In fact the figures provided by AW and Roger Mexico, showed my comment was anything but twaddle.

    I am aware that the moment the word Asian, Black or Immigrant are mentioned the left jump into Holier than Thou mode. However, my comment is based on personal knowledge of the area and the figures supplied last week by the Boss and Roger M.

  3. @Chouenlai

    I was not being deliberately obtuse, and I hope you are not being deliberately ignorant. You made a hypothesis that you later claimed was correct, but for which you have no evidence.

    If you have any evidence that it was the non-white community that made the difference then let us know what it is. Otherwise there are a thousand other potential reasons why the vote was what it was, which could have equally caused the difference. Please understand, I am not saying you are wrong – I am simply asking you to back up opinion with fact (or even a poll!).

    This is part of the scientific method.

    @Aleksandar

    If you can find where I claim that Feltham was meant to be representative of the UK, please let me know. There are indeed many ways that each constituency is unique, but Chouenlai is of the apparent belief that the only one that matters is race, despite his lack of evidenve.

    He may (or may not) be correct, but there is no polling evidence to support his position.

  4. Roland

    Yes, but it works both ways

  5. @ John Murphy

    “Personally I think the US elections are beginning to look extremely interesting…and I beginning to wonder if this time Mr Obama might win quite big…on the back on a pick in US employment…and other stuff turning in his favour…though I believe there will be a very big decision from the Supreme Court in June next year over his Health Reforms…I wonder if Obama gets back that he’ll think Hilary might be a good justice?”

    I think the problem is that unemployment, even as it ticks lower, is still too high. And there will still be millions of out of work people come election time so it may not help politically.

    Obamacare should be upheld in its entirety unless the Court really does turn political. That would be bad news for everyone.

    Hillary on the Supreme Court probably won’t happen because she’s too old. Not that she’s actually old but Obama won’t appoint anyone over 60 (ergo, this is why Diane Wood did not get appointed to the last vacancy). She’s over 60.

    Could he win big? I think it’s possible.

  6. @The sheep
    As I say in my post to Jay Blanc above, evidence was shown last week. I am not going to the trouble to reshow it now. If AW’s figures regarding immigrant voting in Feltham do not cut it for you, that’s tough.

  7. @Choenlai

    Sorry, comments crossed.

    The evidence you claim does not support the idea that difference in voting pattern at this election (compared to national polls and previous election) have anything to do with race.

    The baseline number of votes, yes, but unless there has been a significant change in the population since May 2010 then this should be constant.

    There could be a differential in desire to turn out, but we don’t have evidence that this is linked to race (I would suggest that it is more likely to be linked to income/class, but since these are highly correlated variables that would be difficult to evaluate).

  8. THE SHEEP
    If you wanted me to give you definitive evidence that Sheffield Brightside would be strongly Labour, were an election to be held tomorrow, I could not do it, but I would bet you £10,000 on it. Working class Asians vote Labour and Feltham and the Heathrow Asian workforce have not changed that much since May010. Would you expect the constituents of the East End of Glasgow to have changed since May010, because I would not and neither has a Hounslow Indian.

  9. It is reported that Lady Warsi said the very low turnout in the BE was worrying: ”

    Byelections generally have low turnouts, [especially] byelections at this time of year when it’s cold and just before Christmas and people are thinking about other things.

    “But I am concerned about the level of political engagement. It can’t be right that on 12,000 votes a constituency can be won.”

    Can anyone venture an explanation of what she might be implying by the last sentence?

  10. @Chouenlai

    “William the Bastard was a descendent of King Rollo, a Viking. ”

    I thought you were an admirer of William Hague, although I’ll take your word about his Viking roots! lol

    Now, if you were talking about Cameron the Bas…………………

  11. @The Sheep

    Anthony is being very tolerant of old Rolly’s persistent references to the ethnic make-up of Labour’s vote in Feltham, so I’m going to risk his surprisingly light moderating touch on this subject so far by venturing my own opinion on the subject. I’m going to do so by posing a slightly rhetorical question. Why is it remotely interesting or relevant? The last time I looked, a ballot paper had a list of candidates on it and boxes to place a single vote. There weren’t brown papers for Asian voters, nor black ones for Afro Caribbean voters or white ones for white voters etc. If you are registered and entitled to vote, and over a quarter of our ethnic minorities are unregistered according to the latest estimates, then your vote is worth just as much as the next man’s. Full stop, end of argument. No ifs or buts. One man, one vote as a citizen of this country and a participant in this democracy. Once we start parcelling up and evaluating groups of voters, probably for dodgily self-serving reasons in truth, then we are sliding down a very slippery road.

    What next? The “silver vote”, the “pink vote”, the “people with funny shaped noses vote”.

  12. @MIKE N

    She obviously hasn’t considered Na h-Eileanan an Iar.

    2010 turnout: 14717 (66.1%)

  13. @Mike N

    ““But I am concerned about the level of political engagement. It can’t be right that on 12,000 votes a constituency can be won.” (Baroness Warsi quote)

    I have great concerns myself, previously expressed on these pages, about low levels of voter participation, but I suspect Warsi’s comments are a party-political attempt to invalidate or detract from Labour’s win. Maybe she should console herself with the fact that the new MP for Feltham did in fact receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the election (54.4%). That puts her in a very exclusive club indeed. Nick “AV” Clegg should be impressed! lol

  14. I’m not quite sure why comments about ethnic minority voting patterns are so controversial. Clearly it is something that needs to be discussed in a sensible and grown up manner if not to cause offence, but they are certainly on topic on a site about public opinion and polling – who holds opinions is just as much the issue as what opinions they hold. How different demographics vote – different social classes, different geographies, different age groups, different genders, different ethnicities, etc is all entirely relevant (and thanks to the Ethnic Minority British Election Study last year, we now have some good, solid data on it)

    Ethnicity does have an impact on voting intention. At the GB level it doesn’t have much impact because Britain is overwhelmingly white, but in the London mayoral election next year, for example, with an ethnically mixed electorate, it will be a important factor in understanding voting patterns (and, indeed, for pollsters trying to correctly predict the result! Certainly YouGov weights by ethnicity when polling London)

  15. @mike n
    I think see is saying what we were saying the other day.
    Unless its a YOU or a ME, people think politicians are
    winkers and I spelt it wrong.

  16. @Anthony

    “I’m not quite sure why comments about ethnic minority voting patterns are so controversial.”

    I don’t want to prolong the debate on this and I understand why demographic voting patterns and tendencies might be interesting and, on occasions, significant and it’s always possible that I was in danger of reading too much into what was said on the basis of who was saying it rather than what was being said or implied! However, in my defence, if you read the posts again, almost exclusively from a certain poster, then I think you might find, as I did, that they contained some highly questionable generalisations about the lifestyles, financial circumstances and behaviours of the Asian population in Feltham.

    Then again, it might just have been silly old sensitive me!!

  17. CROSSBAT11…………….It was, silly old, ‘ over ‘ sensitive you, and I commend you for admitting it. :-)

  18. @ Crossbat11

    “I don’t want to prolong the debate on this and I understand why demographic voting patterns and tendencies might be interesting and, on occasions, significant and it’s always possible that I was in danger of reading too much into what was said on the basis of who was saying it rather than what was being said or implied! However, in my defence, if you read the posts again, almost exclusively from a certain poster, then I think you might find, as I did, that they contained some highly questionable generalisations about the lifestyles, financial circumstances and behaviours of the Asian population in Feltham.

    Then again, it might just have been silly old sensitive me!!”

    I don’t think there’s anything wrong with looking at the voting trends and patterns of ethnic minorities. It’s different if it’s used as a slur to dismiss the election results. That’s one reason Bill Clinton got into so much trouble after the South Carolina Primary in 2008 (I wanted to strangle him for what he said) when he dismissed the vote against Hillary as being the result of African American voters. I don’t think the man has a racist bone in his body but what he said came off as racist and he took a great deal of heat for it. Even a different phrasing would have helped him like “Senator Obama is doing very well right now among African American voters and those voters make up a majority of primary voters in this state.” Because that’s not dismissing the results but simply pointing out an obvious fact.

    I don’t think you’re being overly sensitive at all. I think your concern is well taken.

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