The Times have a snap online Populus poll on the European veto, showing support for David Cameron’s decision. 57% of people thought that David Cameron was right to use the veto, with 14% disagreeing and 29% don’t know. 53% also agreed that the use of the veto showed that Cameron is willing to stand up for Britain.

On the impact of the veto, 56% of people thought that the use of the veto would reduce British influence in Europe (9% disagreed), 44% thought it would protect the City of London as a financial centre (12% disagreed). 24% thought the veto would weaken the prospect of economic recovery, 27% disagreed.

Finally, on the domestic political angle, 35% of people agreed that Cameron used the veto only because of pressure from his backbenchs, 22% disagreed. 35% of people agreed with the statement that the veto makes it less likely that the coalition will last, 16% disagree.

Fieldwork was conducted between Friday and Sunday, so would mostly have been before Nick Clegg cricitised the veto. The poll did not ask voting intention (the political crossbreaks in the Times’ write up are based on 2010 vote), so we’ll have to wait a bit longer to see if it has any impact there.


252 Responses to “Snap Populus poll on the veto”

1 3 4 5 6
  1. I think that this will help ukip over the longer term. Dc is implying that the Europeans can’t be trusted which gives more reason to withdraw, also eurosectics will saying if we are not at the table then why bother paying for it. Which is a message that will resonate with the public. Ukip will overtake the dems by mid summer, autumn latest. In the short term I don’t see any down side for ukipers but we will see

  2. It’s a real shame that with DC taking decisions on the euro etc for the UK, that we don’t have any indication of how that is being viewed in Northern Ireland.

    Anyone have any info?

  3. OldNat

    I don’t think we’ll get any polling here in Northern Ireland about the current situation but I think it’d be seen as pretty favourably. DUP and Sinn Fein are both fairly eurosceptic and based on an “everyone I’ve talked to” kind of poll the EU isn’t very popular. I’d love to see some real polling about it though. Alliance (Lib Dem sister party) are unsurprisingly the most europhile.

    I was asked a VI poll for Northern Ireland last week but I didn’t see the result published. Anyone know if I just missed them or if they were kept private?

  4. tonight’s YG

    Lab 40
    Con 39
    LD 10

  5. Latest YouGov/Sun results 12th Dec

    CON 39%,

    LAB 40%,

    LD 10%;

    APP -19

    I think I take that one !

  6. Thats a massive move in approval, we haven’t seen such a low rate of disapproval for at least a year?

  7. @CROSSBAT
    Please spare me the history of the world wars from the Outer Mongolian point of view. My comment was about the UK contribution, just as Cameron is concerned about the UK.
    BTW, please don’t bother to argue stats with me about either world war, I really don’t need you to tell me how many Russians were killed. I posted the figures for Australia, New Zealand, India and Canada the other day, AW, moderated it.

  8. @RiN,

    You’re right that’s an extraordinary change. And for a reduction in Disapproval that isn’t accompanied by a matching increase in governing party VI? What do we make of that?

    UKIP supporters giving the thumbs up to Cameron, but staying in the purple corner? LD supporters approving of Clegg’s attack on Cameron? (Seems an odd thing but who knows..)

  9. @Chouenlai,

    Speaking as an ally, I don’t think there’s any mileage in the Fields of Flanders rhetoric.

    All we need to know about the French record in WW2 is that the French Communist Party supported the Nazis right up until the point that Hitler invaded Russia. Instructions from HQ in Moscow were their most important priority.

    But this isn’t really the place, dear chap.

  10. RiN

    Certainly disapproval is down, but I’m not sure that it can be allocated to the “veto”.

    Dec 1-2 : Disapproval -29
    Dec 8-9 : Disapproval -24
    Dec 11-12 : Disapproval -19

  11. @OldNat,

    Interesting figures, but I think we’ve come to expect Disapproval to bounce up and down by 4-5% between polls. Two 5% drops in the same direction is something new, RiN’s right about that.

  12. Neil A

    You (and RiN) may well be right, but my point was to suggest that the “veto” may not be the cause.

    It could be that England simply warms towards its Government as Xmas approaches, and they aren’t in the workhouse – yet. :-)

  13. @ Richard In Norway

    This is indeed very good news for David Cameron.
    Indeed, the government hasnt been this popular for more than 6 months, as far as I can recall, on the YouGov Trackers, it is the 26th of May 2011, that the government hit -19 for the last time. They have been performing worse than that ever since.

    By the Way, with approval relatively high, and the two idiots of Clegg and Miliband, I can see even higher Tory scores coming. Very interesting. How Cameron has made this EU summit to his advantage, you’ve got to have huge political skills to do that!

    BTW, I just see that the last time the tories hit 39% (daily poll) was the 29th of August!

  14. That’s a small bounce for the Cons I’m afraid…..back to polldrums tomorrow.

  15. Massive swing in LD govt. approval. Usually it is slightly positive and occasionally a couple of points negative. Today -8. Caveats about single samples and subsamples apply but probably fair to say LD voters not happy over EU isolation.

  16. @Rob S

    “I think I take that one !”

    You couldn’t tell me the score of the Villa v Liverpool game this Sunday, could you? If so, I’m off to Ladbrokes immediately!

    I was wrong about a Tory lead, although the polls have narrowed and the Government approval rate has improved post the Cameron Treaty Veto. I thought the Tory VI may have improved a bit more to be honest, at Labour’s expense, and tonight’s poll shows no significant change from the weekend’s when some of the sampling occurred before the Summit ended.

    On the basis that I think the Veto bounce for the Tories will be short lived, I might be a tad disappointed with this YouGov poll tonight if I was strategist inside Smith Square, especially when it’s more than likely that there may be significant troubles ahead.

    What on earth is ever going to get the Tory VI above 40% ever again, one asks? Not Libya it seems, nor post-riots penal clampdowns, nor anti Europeanism, nor various dog whistles on immigration and welfare claimants. They really do seem to be stuck with having to roll a very heavy boulder up a steep electoral hill. It wasn’t always like this, if I remember rightly, when the faithful usually rallied to the toll of favourite bells.. Changed times indeed.

  17. @Neil A

    That’ll be really easy to answer when cross-tabs are available. Look for those already voting Conservative or voting for UKIP, and the approval boost is likely to have come from there. It won’t mean a dramatic boost to VI because they’re either already declaring for the Conservatives, or would only declare for the Conservatives if they pulled out of Europe all together.

    This is why Cameron’s Veto is only superficially good politics. It firmed up some small sum of support, and made his own party back him more… But it has alienated his coalition partners, given ammunition to Labour, and worse still upset the City who feel put at risk by his ‘protection’. That last one could seriously bite Cameron when the millions in ‘loans’ from these people that are normally simply rolled over for another five years come to term this year…

  18. Oldnat

    I have a comment in mod which you might be interested in, it should pop out in a bit. It’s at the top of this page.

  19. @OLDNAT

    A winter of slight content then.

  20. @Neil A

    “UKIP supporters giving the thumbs up to Cameron, but staying in the purple corner?”

    yep that is the reason

  21. Colin Green

    Caveats noted. They also apply to the Scottish cross-breaks (Don’t look at them! © Roger Mexico)

    Dec 1-2 : Disapproval -38
    Dec 8-9 : Disapproval -24
    Dec 11-12 : Disapproval -53

  22. @CROSSBAT11

    “What on earth is ever going to get the Tory VI above 40% ever again, one asks? Not Libya it seems, nor post-riots penal clampdowns, nor anti Europeanism, nor various dog whistles on immigration and welfare claimants. They really do seem to be stuck with having to roll a very heavy boulder up a steep electoral hill. It wasn’t always like this, if I remember rightly, when the faithful usually rallied to the toll of favourite bells.. Changed times indeed.”

    Bear in mind that this is all during a recession. The riots, Libya and EU moments are keeping their faithful onside and the undecided still undecided (imo). As I’ve always said, they will secure re-election if they make a decent job of the deficit/debt problem. The public seem to accept this, hence why the polls seems to go against them (in VI and approval) with bad economic news.

  23. Still maintain this is on the boring side. We’ve had random Conservative leads of +2 which never amounted to much.

    My suspicion is that not everyone makes up their minds the moment they hear of a political event. It’s more often something mulled over for days or weeks, or a contributory factor that causes a change at a later date based on a number of extra niggling factors. So it’s still everything to play for over the next few days, but this event may still be switching people’s voting intentions long after something else has taken over the news. Unless a blatant voting swing emerges soon, we may never know for certain the full effect this has on voting patterns.

    I’m more concerned how this business affects voting on the continent. Whatever you think of UKIP, they do at least soak up a lot of votes that would otherwise have found their way to the BNP. In France, the only option of any standing for a Eurosceptic vote is the National Front – and the polls suggest they’re doing quite well (who are supposed to have calmed down a bit but I’d rather not put that to the test). If protest votes against the way the EU’s going get routinely mixed up with unsavoury anti-immigration stances, that could get really ugly.

  24. CROSSBAT11
    What on earth is ever going to get the Tory VI above 40% ever again, one asks?
    The economy getting better…One problem for Cameron is he can`t use the old excuse `Euro damping down the economy` as he has deliberately set out to sabotage the Euro or atleast failed to take all measures to save it…If Milliband is smart he`ll drive a wedge between the two coalition partners to make a case to the electorate `Never trust these two with governance again`

  25. statgeek

    “Bear in mind that this is all during a recession.”

    When did that happen? Last I heard, growth was positive. Sure, the outlook is less than rosy but let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. Growth has to be negative before you can use the R word.

  26. statgek

    “As I’ve always said, they will secure re-election if they make a decent job of the deficit/debt problem. The public seem to accept this, hence why the polls seems to go against them (in VI and approval) with bad economic news.”

    Irrespective of whether the main issue of the day is economics, law and order or Europe on YG the Tories are stuck between 34 and 39 and have been for a year.

    We are in two party politics again and have the first peacetime non-national government coalition in 90 years. Cameron needs to be several points ahead of Labour to have a chance of even a small working (maastricht era) majority- whereupon he will be beholden to the baying backbenches as was John Major..

    I cannot see where that 3-5 point lead is coming from after 5 years of austerity with two more (minimum) to come and up against a Labour party with there own cuts lite manifesto. By 2015 (if this coalition survives that long) the electorate will just be punch drunk by then and the once-off shift of tactical anti war anti Tory LD’s to Labour after May 2010 will simply likely block that possibility of a Tory majority.

    More then ever I am convinced we are in for another hung parliament at the next election- whenever that comes and irrespective of what “economic narrative” George and Dave can spin.

  27. All very interesting, but I suspect, ultimately pointless. Frankly, bashing Brussels is a easy line for a Tory PM to get a quick leg up in the polls, as most of us predicted over the weekend. The problem Cameron has is that this is it.

    Where is the campaign, the strategy, the agenda? He doesn’t have one. Certainly not, now that he is on the outside, with even close allies like Sweden – people we could have worked with to frame reform in Europe – now on the inside too.

    Making a name for yourself as an anti European over the long haul largely depends on your ability to deliver tangible benefits as reward for your intransigence at the negotiating table. Cameron hasn’t got anything tangible to show people, and is now less likely to secure his objective of repatriating powers.

    Once the fluff of some belligerent headlines wears off, people who care about these things will see the weakness of the governments negotiating position. People who don’t care about these things (ie, most voters) will just wonder why Cameron hasn’t done what he promised to do.

  28. @Smukesh

    “One problem for Cameron is he can`t use the old excuse `Euro damping down the economy` as he has deliberately set out to sabotage the Euro or atleast failed to take all measures to save it”

    Yes he can. He can easily argue that he only stood in the way of a deal that unnecessarily tied in the UK, and left the EZ free to take whatever measures they needed amongst themselves. You might not agree with that but your opinion only matters if you are a swing voter. And given how heavily the opinion polls are favouring the Conservatives on this decision, it’s a fair supposition that this argument will be good enough for most floating voters switching to the Conservatives.

  29. I love you Daily Telegraph reading, small ‘c’ Conservative Jeremy Paxman- for you have just said on Newsnight that:

    “…Britain certainly did not wield a veto in any meaningful sense of the word…”

    :D

  30. YouGov on EU summit and Cameron’s veto…..

    Who do you trust the most to look after the UKs best interest in the EU?

    Cameron-51%
    Milliband-32%
    Clegg-22%

    Cameron was right to veto the EU treaty?

    Agree-58%
    Disagree-21%
    Don’t know/No opinion-21%

    That gives an overall average from the three polls on the EU veto of 59% support for the veto, 18% disapproval and
    23% don’t knows/no opinion either way.

  31. Leetay – it wasn’t a “who do you trust most” (hence it summing to over 100%!). It was three “how much do you trust X” questions.

  32. PEESTIE

    Ta

  33. Cameron approval ratings haven’t been this high since June, while his disapproval ratings haven’t been this low since January. The net approval hasn’ t been at -19 since May/June.

  34. Crossbat.

    That 40% VI ceiling is a real problem for the Tories. Only three times in the past 22 years, and only for one brief 12 month period in the past 19 years – and THAT at the depth of the worst recession since the 30s.

    Cameron has got himself into real schtuck now. If he can’t comfortably breach 40%, he hasn’t got a prayer of getting a majority in 15 without a robust LD performance to split the Left. But how can he tack left and give some titbits for the LDs to cling to when he’s now going to be dangled by his tackle by the Right for the next 3 and a half years?

    It was a three pipe problem before last week. It’s worth a full bag of rough shag now.

  35. Statgeek

    “Cameron approval ratings haven’t been this high since June, while his disapproval ratings haven’t been this low since January. The net approval hasn’ t been at -19 since May/June”

    …and they’ll be marched back down the hill again when the UKIP and BNP VI- who have given him this approval boost- discover that he actually wants to be at the heart of Europe: as he could not stop repeating in his statement !

  36. @ROB SHEFFIELD

    “I cannot see where that 3-5 point lead is coming from after 5 years of austerity with two more (minimum) to come and up against a Labour party with there own cuts lite manifesto.”

    Generally agree. There a good chance that 4-8 points will disappear from both parties to UKIP and SNP respectively. I still have a feeling the polls aren’t getting all the message from up North. Labour may or may not be on a hiding up here. UKIP will suffer if Cameron appeals to the UKIP voters. They (UKIP votes) might realise a hung parliament is on the cards, and switch to Con, while some SNP voters might go Lab to prevent a Con majority.

    More interesting than the polldrums at least.

  37. Not sure if @RiN is around tonight, but there are rumours that Commerzbank in Germany is seeking a government bailout. Moody’s have announced a review of all EU countries ratings, in response to the failure of the summit to do anything useful, and Standard Chartered, the most successful predictor of UK GDP trends in recent years, today announced that they think the UK is already in recession and that 2012 will see a further shrinkage of 1.7%.

    The whole emphasis had to have been about growth, and finding safe mechanisms to engineer a soft erosion of debt now. Instead, they chose a few ill thought through sticking plasters and then started to think about how to solve the next crisis after this one. Daft.

  38. I notice that a proposition is now being suggested by posters elsewhere that Labour were not aware that their ‘recovery’ plan would have been illegal under the proposed EU agreement . It was not until Daniel Byles a Tory MP pointed this out at 5.02 that Milibands advisers start to say at 5.09 that he would not have signed the agreement. If this is true would not be Ed’s finest moment.
    Interesting theory and if picked up by the papers could have an impact on the public’s perception of Labour’s handling of the matter. Will be interesting to see if there is any impact on the polls. Cameron appears to be coming out of this smelling of roses.

  39. “…have they broken it” should have been inserted in sentence 2 of course

  40. Interesting few days.
    Lab should have had a position ready even if it was “our paper to the conference would have been different such as….” or ” we would have disagreed but said we were doubtful if we could agree to a treaty but would continue to talk and discuss their ideas”. Walking away was awful ….. where were our world class FCO mandarins with there supposedly little red books of appropriate advice?
    The fear among British EU friends is the U.K. being sidelined.
    Milliband had a reasonable day. I thought Cleggs “pygmy” phrase apt and one could play with it cruely…pigmy PM…. two pigmys(DC and NC)…
    not that I ever would.
    Is it PC though?

  41. @Percy H – “…where were our world class FCO mandarins with there supposedly little red books of appropriate advice?”

    The FT is tonight reporting that a number 10 aide deliberately froze the FCO out of the negotiations, and many are drawing the conclusion that this is why we ended up with such a poor deal and absolutely no allies.

  42. Old nat
    Ni parties stance is totally predictable
    Unionists always Eurosceptic (esp DUP) strongly support Cameron
    Nationalists oppose anything which will move away from the Irish Republic are against
    Alliance like their LD colleagues dont like it and call for better diplomacy

  43. Alec/PercyH

    Mark Urban seems to have shed some light on that question on Newsnight. Looks like utter incompetence in the tactics, with the Downing St mafia running the show and keeping the FCO out of the discussions.

    Never mind. It appears that Poland are prepared to ride to our rescue and help build the bridges that were burned last week.

  44. CHRIS NEVILLE-SMITH
    Yes he can. He can easily argue that he only stood in the way of a deal that unnecessarily tied in the UK, and left the EZ free to take whatever measures they needed amongst themselves. You might not agree with that

    Too right…He talked about not letting the EU use their buildings compromising their functioning in a crisis…That is not letting them do whatever is necessary…I generally don`t agree with mutually contradictory statements or actions…The problem with thinking that the average voter has the pea sized brain is that at some point it is bound to go wrong`

  45. Alec

    Yes that was the German bank I was talking about before. What going to be interesting is how far the haircuts go. The shareholders will get totally burned, if they don’t then Eurobond QE is a possibility but my guess is they will be wiped out 100% then its the turn of the junior bondholders, the size of their haircut will tell US how serious the Germans are about taking the pain of deflation. Then its the turn of the senior bondholders, if they suffer any haircut then we know that the Germans are absolutely commited to a hard currency and that their currency whether it be the euro or the new Dmarks will be the only hard currency around and a major contender for reserve currency status.

  46. I haven’t yet heard a suggestion of what Cameron could have usefully achieved if he hadn’t “walked away”.

    I suppose he could have curled up in a corner and got some much-needed shut-eye, but being “in the room” isn’t much use if a little Frenchman repeatedly says “Non, monsieur” every time you say something.

    As has been pointed out, this meeting was essentially about seeing if there was any chance of agreement on an all-EU treaty change to bring in the new fiscal disciplines. France and Germany went into it clearly believing there wasn’t any chance, and preparing to settle for an EZ+ treaty instead. So far as I can tell the conversation went like this;

    MERKOZY – Dave, will you sign the treaty?

    DAVE – Maybe, will you make any concessions if I do?

    MERKOZY – No.

    DAVE – Err, OK. No, then.

    MERKOZY – Tres Bien, Danke Shon. EZ+ it is then.

    DAVE – OK, cheerio.

  47. Neil A.

    As someone said on the radio today, when the plane is crashing, of course you end up having to press the ejector seat button.

    The issue is, why was the plane crashing in the first place? Could some more professional action by the pilot beforehand have prevented the plane getting to that point?

    Cameron was walking into this veto from the moment that he jutted his chin and said that he would put a treaty change to a referendum. He gave Sarkozy an open invitation to box him about the ears and force him into a stance that France has wanted from the UK for decades.

  48. So, to avoid being backstabbed by Merkozy, Cameron should have backstabbed the British people instead?

    No great thing I suppose, our back is like a pin-cushion already…

  49. Neil.

    No. He should have been a more mature politician and give himself some boxing space, rather than painting himself into a corner and leaving his opponents to simply turn off the light and close the door on him.

    Sophisticated, grown up politicians don’t EVER leave themselves no option but the nuclear option. They give themselves (and their countries, by the way) alternatives. They deal, they haggle and they compromise.Even the Blessed Margaret did that, despite the hagiography.

    Instead, Cameron has postured. Great. Looks fine the day after. Now he’ll spend the rest of this administration dealing with the consequences.

  50. @Chou:

    You left a emotive comment about blood soaked fields of Northern Europe…where many Irish died including many members of my family…

    Many good men have died in for bad causes and many bad men in good causes….but that history neither defines us nor justifies unhelpful ‘national’ stereotyping…
    .
    I’m sure a lot of decent English men died in Ireland…there were also some less decent men who were in the Black and Tans….

    British history is littered with unedifying military adventures…in India, China, in the Americas, in regard to slavery and its commercial propagation as a mainstay of trade, in the religious wars of Europe, in the creation of the first concentration camps in the Boar War…

    if we want to draw conclusions from our military past we cannot be selective…and if we don’t understand that our past mistakes and misdemeanour’s also shape how others’ view us and rightly so then we entirely miss the point….

    Nor does anything being believed by a majority make them right….it may be defining… particularly politically…

    But the politics of party is really often fought about the margins and we shouldn’t mistake noise of argument and the ephemera of electoral success for a greater truth than it represents….

    BTW I never said I favoured entering the Euro…merely that being involved in its financial underpinning is no different from being involved in the IMF…once again to make something impractical for the reasons of electoral flourish in the end will not help any of us… if we want to be listened to…then we need to put our money where our mouth is …as we did over Ireland…and in the long run…if that helps Germany to take the necessary but difficult steps to underpin the Euro…then we will all gain; we will get our money back; and we will have strengthen and not weakened our voice in the EU. .

1 3 4 5 6