Full tables for the YouGov Sunday Times poll are now up here. Some of the European questions are, of course, rendered somewhat out of date by the veto, but there are some straws in the wind as to what we might expect the impact to be. There was a perception that Cameron should be tougher in negotiations – 44% of people think he should be tougher, 22% think he should try and work more closely with other European countries, 17% think he gets the balance about right (Conservative voters mostly think he should be tougher).

There was also a fair amount of trust in Cameron to negotiate in Europe – asked if they trust Cameron to look after Britain’s interests in Europe 49% of people say they do, 44% do not. Asked the same question about Clegg, 28% of people trust him, 63% do not.

59% of people think David Cameron is right to oppose an EU tax on financial transactions, 18% think he is wrong. This is, of course, not the specific issue that was at hand at the European summit, but is is a similar protecting British banks -vs- Europe balance (it is also interesting to contrast it with other polls showing support for the principle of a financial transaction tax – my guess is that it’s a case of people supporting a financial transaction tax when it is presented as a Robin Hood tax that will raise money for public services, or something that will punish naughty banks, etc, but when it is presented as something from the EU they oppose it).

However, there was also a perception that a closer monetary union in the rest of Europe would leave Britain sidelined – 51% thought it would, 21% thought it would not (what this doesn’t show is whether or not respondents viewed that as a particularly bad thing or not!)

The survey also asked about law and order and policing. It is relatively even on whether people think the government has done better or worse on crime than the last government. 25% think they have done better, 29% worse, 38% the same (the divisions, as one might expect, are almost wholly down party lines). 64% of people think that their local police force are doing their job well (this is part of a typical pattern, people normally rate their local services far more positively than questions asking about national services).

Unsurprisingly 76% of people think there should be more police visible on the streets. However, the question on whether problems are due to a lack of officers, or the wrong policies and priorities shows a very even divide. 40% of people think there are already enough police officers but their priorities are wrong; 37% think that the police’s priorities are right, there just aren’t enough officers.


73 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – full report”

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  1. Richard.

    THis is from the FT:-


    Bundled by its euro partners a year ago into a rescue programme it did not want, Ireland is now being touted as proof that the severe fiscal austerity imposed by the European Union and International Monetary Fund as a condition of eurozone bail-outs is not necessarily an impediment to economic growth. Including Tuesday’s dose of budgetary consolidation, the country will have ripped €25bn – equivalent to nearly 15 per cent of current gross domestic product – out of the economy since mid-2008, through a painful sequence of tax increases and pay, pension and public spending cuts. Almost half as much again is still to come.

    Yet unlike in Greece, Portugal, Spain or Italy, unit labour costs have been significantly reduced, amounting to an “internal devaluation” that the government estimates at more than16 per cent. Exports are now above their pre-crisis peak and the current account of the balance of payments is back in surplus. GDP may end up expanding this year by 1 per cent as a result.

    An economy undergoing a 4 per cent contraction [in 2011], with banks that are not lending and a massive overhang of housing debt, yet that ends up with a positive [economic growth] number – that’s a remarkable performance,” says Karl Whelan, professor of economics at University College Dublin. “I am surprised we’ve done this well but I’ll be surprised again next year if we’re still on track,” he cautions.

    If the euro fails to hold together, Ireland fears it will cease to be the magnet for inward investment into Europe it became 20 years ago. In 1990, the largest foreign direct investor was Fruit of the Loom, making T-shirts in Donegal. Now the country is clustered with investments by Intel and Pfizer, Google and Merck, Apple and Siemens. In all they generate €110bn in exports and account for two-thirds of both corporation tax revenue and private sector research and development ”

    Knowing your interest in Banks you might be interested in this from the same article :-


    The burden of sovereign debt – pumped up by rescue funds that ensure creditors to banks that no longer exist, such as Anglo Irish Bank, are paid in full – is likened to being lashed to a dead horse. Taxpayers were put on the hook by the state’s guarantee to banks, the government acknowledges, but then were kept there by the EU and ECB to help prop up other European banks.

    No one in Ireland has a problem with Europe if it means more prosperity, but if it means we have to pay Deutsche Bank’s gambling debts then there is a problem,” says David McWilliams, an economist and broadcaster. Ireland, says one senior official, “took one for the team?.?.?.?protecting Europe from another Lehman”. Soon it expects a payback”

    I think Enda Kenny stands a good chance of keeping that 12.5% CT rate. !

  2. @Colin

    Just to clarify permanently cutting the fiscal deficit by 350 million in one financial year is the equivalent to the UK trying to get a 34 Billion deficit cut in one year.

    It will hurt, but don’t worry as Cypriots have the right to come over to the UK, and even vote. In fact the second largest group of Cypriots (after Nicosia) is North London – so many are there already!

  3. FRANK G

    Cheers

    Can’t wait for that Communist President of the EU Council !

  4. For those LD’s speculating about breaking away from the coalition and forcing a GE, I have the definitive information.
    You Gov 11
    Survation 14
    Feltham B E 7.

    These are the cement that keeps the coalition together.

  5. @Chouenlai
    from previous thread : “Daft as it sounds, I almost wonder if they are not play acting. In the first instance, everything was rosy and even St Vincent of Twickers was happy. Suddenly overnight it has changed to a dire dirty detrimental diabolical Tory trick. I wonder if the whole outrage thing is a set up.”

    We don’t agree on much but I have to say that I totally agree with you on this. Clegg has okayed this with Cameron before he let his Party dissent.

  6. Chou
    “For those LD’s speculating about breaking away from the coalition and forcing a GE, I have the definitive information.
    You Gov 11
    Survation 14
    Feltham B E 7.

    These are the cement that keeps the coalition together.”

    Given the overwhelming popularity of Cameron’s stand with the general public, the LD’s are likely to lose even more popular support if they keep up the outrage. It sometimes seems that the majority of LD activists pine for the days when they had about 5 MPs, and are doing their best to achieve it.

  7. As all my many readers will know and, by the way, I’m already working on my usual Christmas Message for you all, I’m an absolute stickler for objectivity and non-partisanship. Accordingly, before commenting, I have taken my time to digest the implications of the EU veto that Cameron exercised on our behalf last week and what it means for our politics and our economy. I didn’t want to instantly indulge in predictable knee-jerk party political point-scoring, beloved by some on these august pages but, you will all be glad to know, even relieved possibly, that I’m now ready to enunciate.

    Firstly, although the early polls suggest only a slight up-tick so far in Tory support, I expect they will show a short term major boost for them, probably taking them into a narrow lead in many. The sight of a Tory PM sticking it to little Johnny Foreigner, especially if he’s of the French variety, will always set some voters hearts all a quiver and, with the right wing press cheering to the rafters, things will seem nice and rosy in the Cameron camp for now. I’m sure they will think it is a job well done.

    Secondly, rather like the AV Referendum, Cameron has got Clegg over a barrel and is cleverly using the current window of opportunity where Clegg needs Cameron more than vice versa, and he’s taking his coalition partners up the garden path and beyond. He knows he can rely on Clegg’s craven indulgence because the Lib Dems daren’t risk a General Election and would rather like to hang on to the ministerial limousines, red boxes and country houses for a while longer, thank you very much. Accordingly, Cameron knows that he can concentrate on appeasing his right wing with the risk of only half-hearted murmurings off stage from Clegg and co.

    Thirdly, I think Cameron’s veto will have disastrous mid to long term repercussions for our economy and our foreign policy influence. Say what you like about Sarkozy, and I often do, but to have your personal relationship with the leader of one of the world’s great economies and powers deteriorate to the level of cold indifference, is carelessness beyond measure. Merkel’s recent comments suggest a growing disdain too and Cameron’s isolation will be ours in the long run. He’s sold his country short for the sake of 81 Tory backbenchers, the City of London and the Daily Express.

    If I was Mr Cameron, I’d enjoy the opinion poll leads whilst they last! .

  8. @Amber Star – “Uk have said they will challenge the use of existing EU institutions being mentioned in the EZ treaty/ used for enforcing it.”

    According to the Economist blog:

    “It is now almost inevitable that separate structures be set up, with Britain on the outside, it seems. Talk in London of preventing the “Eurozone-plus” from using the Court of Justice is also a mistake, I am told. Article 273 of the treaty allows just this.”

    They also have some insights into why Cameron’s position broke down. (This account ties in with hostile remarks made by Lithuania’s President Dalia Grybauskaite as she left the summit.)

    h
    ttp://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2011/12/britain-and-eu-1?page=1

  9. chouenlai

    Your post @ 4.40 is nothing but idle speculation. You just assume a referendum would favour staying in the EU […] What you and your associates never consider, is that the average person is not as focused on Europe and blinded by Europe as you are.

    Well, when it comes down to it, what all of us say on here is “idle speculation” – I did however back up with arguments and poling data my belief, stated here before, that a referendum would lead to the UK staying in. I may well be wrong and circumstances may alter, but the current data certainly suggests that is what the most likely outcome is.

    As far as being ‘focused on Europe and blinded by Europe’, I don’t think I am either – I haven’t commented that much on it. There may well be those who are obsessed by ‘Europe’ – of which of course the UK is always a part, whether in the EU or not – But more likely the true obsessives are those who go on endless about how evil ‘Europe’ is or how we must leave the EU at once, because they vigorously promulgate this opinion even when the topic isn’t at a high a level of public interest.

    Colin

    ”Cameron’s trouble is that you can’t be ‘tougher’ in negotiations if you’re not there.”

    Being where?

    We are in the EU.

    We are not in the EZ.

    But that hasn’t stopped nine other countries continuing to take part in the negotiations (toughly or not) has it?

    Amber

    You can be my associate whenever you want. 8)

  10. Pete B

    Rather they pick the worst things to choose as their sacred cows worth rowing over – not that I think you shouldn’t choose your principled ones over ones which may see more public sympathy – but it’s unfortunate for them. For good or bad, AV and the pro-EU are minority interests/passions; whilst they’ve had countless broadly unpopular measures that they’ve just waved on by (or seen to be) – Richard mentioned the banking reforms – add to that the horrendous betrayal regarding student fees, or Lansley’s radical reforms of the NHS.

  11. @Crossbatt11 – “Cameron’s isolation will be ours in the long run.”

    I would say the consensus atm seems to be “…a return to the top table is not impossible, but highly unlikely while the current government remains in power.”

    The longer it lasts, the more of a fait accompli, and less likely that a future government can undo the damage… something for LDs to think about (in the national interest blah, blah).

  12. BILLY BOB
    Crossbatt11
    I do not think the Liberal Democrats are stage managing this…If that was the case,they would have waited till the PM`s statement tomorrow before going public…They are not in a position to withdraw support yet but certainly in a position to damage Cameron from within…Nick Clegg`s position has strengthened Milliband`s position…it`s 2 against 1 now and the public are more likely to see through the veto now…I think they are going to have to renegotiate but do it in a way that Cameron saves face…Thats the job of the foreign office

  13. SMukesh – “I think they are going to have to renegotiate but do it in a way that Cameron saves face”

    You could be right. The ‘phobes, as Rob Sheffield calls them, have been making all the noise in David Cameron’s ear lately, however there are other interested groups (speak softly and carry a big stick) who do not think this state of affairs should stand.

  14. LizH
    ‘We don’t agree on much but I have to say that I totally agree with you on this. Clegg has okayed this with Cameron before he let his Party dissent.’

    You are so transparentally honest. Do you ever try to score cheap political points?

  15. AMBERSTAR
    ‘All the major Parties have offered referendums in the past… they just don’t actually hold a referendum, once elected’

    You are right and personally I find it depressing.

  16. @ Roger

    You can be my associate whenever you want.
    ————————————
    You’ve made my day :-)

  17. ROGER MEXICO

    @”But that hasn’t stopped nine other countries continuing to take part in the negotiations (toughly or not) has it?”

    seven of them are currently “converging” ( thought on what is now an interesting question) on euro membership.

    two are having referenda.

    Sweden’s PM has rhetorically asked what the point of a non euro aspirant, signing a treaty to enhance fiscal union , actually is.

  18. On the LDs abandoning the coalition…

    It’s not going to happen. I just can’t see it anymore. I thought it might happen over tuition fees, over AV, over Europe, but as we’ve seen, the LDs are clinging to power by compromising their pledges one by one. If they’ve given over on everything else, the one thing they still have is that they joined the coalition for the good of the country that it was the responsible thing to do. Whether you agree with their U-turns or not, you have to give a little grudging respect for that. Just a little mind.

    However, if they’ve flipflopped on every other issue, I just can’t see one being big enough to justify a split to the public. To give up on the one thing they’ve actually stuck to would be idiotic, as it’s the one reason people still support them. They’re facing electoral punishment as it is, they wouldn’t want to turn it into electoral slaughter.

  19. @Henry
    “You are so transparentally honest. Do you ever try to score cheap political points?”

    Henry I am not trying to score a point. I don’t particularly trust Clegg.

  20. I can’t help equating Cameron’s idea of negotiating with Maude and Alexander and public sector pensions.

    They announce what the “offer” is in the press and when they go into the negotiating room they keep repeating what a good offer it is and refuse to budge.

    Then they complain about strife.

  21. The Tories and the Lib Dems are surely together now until 2015.

    The Lib Dems will vote in favour of the Government in any division in the House of Commons over Europe.

    HENRY: Do you really think that Mr Clegg is pretending to be angry, in order to please the rank and file in the Party, while agreeing with the PM in private?

    It is clear that the new EZ will use the EU Treaty to forge a deal to please themselves

  22. Chris Lane
    HENRY: Do you really think that Mr Clegg is pretending to be angry, in order to please the rank and file in the Party, while agreeing with the PM in private?

    Yes. The fact he was knifed in the back by the Party Chair ( someone I have never liked) did not help. Incidently she is ex Tory.

  23. LizH

    ‘Henry I am not trying to score a point. I don’t particularly trust Clegg.’

    I do not think I trust him as much as I used to.

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