Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%, Others 11%, pretty much the norm as of late. UKIP, incidentally, is back down on 4%. Having had a brief peak after the Conservative rebellion on Europe, when for a week or so YouGov had them up around 7%, they have now fallen back down to the range of 4%-6% they were at before the vote.

Meanwhile, for those interested in the nuts and blots of polling, the full tabs for the ICM poll at the weekend are up here. The reallocation of don’t knows had the effect of increasing Lib Dem support by 2 and reducing Labour support by 2, so without it the poll would have had both parties equal on 38% (still a very good poll for the Conservatives of course… but normal caveats about outliers apply)


282 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 42, LDEM 11”

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  1. @CROSSBAT
    If late C20 capitalism is built on illusions, what has history shown us about socialism ? C20 capitalism has been found wanting because the social democratic wing of it, cannot be trusted with money. The failure is no more or less, than living on tick to the point of bankruptcy and it does not need to be so.

    GENERAL
    There seems some talk up page about the Tory vote share reducing slightly. The whole point of the Curtice /Indy poll of polls this month, is that it is not. With the exception of the LD’s down one point, the major parties are exactly where they were a month ago.
    The upshot of all this, in the language of a simple country Tory is this, for every person despairing of the cruelty and economic ignorance of the Tory party, there is another person who would not trust Labour with the children’s pocket money.

  2. crossbat11
    You seem to have completely misjudged my political position: I am not, and have never been a socialist, of any sort, whatever qualifying adjective you attach to it.

    You say the “Labour Party of the 1980s showed us that the electorate won’t wear” “doctrinaire socialism”. To the extent to which that is what happened in 1983, I am glad (and of course things have moved on since).

    “Oh, and by the way, winning elections in a representative democracy isn’t and entirely silly thing to try and do if you’d like to have an opportunity to put your values and beliefs into effect!”

    I agree entirely, but I would have more respect for the Labour Party if it tried persuading people of its values, rather than always chasing public opinion is if it was immovable (if it was, advertising agencies would be out of business, and the larger marketing-related wing of opinion polling would be too). The reactionaries try to persuade people of their values: if they have the entire field of the battle of ideas to themselves, they win even when Blairites are in power (just not as fast as when they are in power themselves).

  3. R HUCKLE

    @”Brown was pretty close to Greenspan ”

    THere are some wonderful clips in the film-including Greenspan testifying before some committee or other that the recently invented, and exposive Derivatives Market did not need regulating . !

  4. I see Ashcroft has carried out a telephone poll on the Feltham&Heston by-election:
    Lab 52%
    Con 30%
    LD 10%
    Oth 8%

  5. chouenlai

    “late C20 capitalism is built on illusions”, was my point. I was thinking of illusions like that ‘there is an infinite supply of resources’; like ‘inequality doesn’t matter if production goes up’; like ‘selling people weapons is a good idea’; like ‘the future will take care of itself’; like ‘people starving, being poisoned, or being homeless doesn’t matter’; like ‘it doesnt matter what pollution we create because the planet can always cope with it’; like ‘having ever freer markets trading is a good idea’ (even if they are derivatives that nobody understands, which are in reality re-packaged ninja mortgages); etc, etc.

    On your other point, it again comes from me. My observation was that Tory support had dropped slightly since 28-30th Nov. The fact that it was higher 28th-30th Nov than a month ago is neither here nor there to what I was saying (and indeed my point still held even if it was entirely unchanged).

  6. I also note the esteemed Lord has also gone the “Labour should be further ahead” card.

    Labour haven’t got the advantage of the popular incumbent, who probably had broad cross party support. But they are still 22% ahead of Con. That’s 22%! It was less than 10% with the popular Mr Keen last year.

  7. @Crossbat11

    Hence “only concern” – I know a New Labour apologist like yourself sees electability the be-all and end-all, but there comes a point when there’s little point: if you’ve discarded your beliefs, and all you’re offering is Thatcherism with different faces, you needn’t bother. At least when that ideology falls out of favour there’s an alternative on offer, rather than the current fun of replacing neoliberals with ideological clones as they apply more of it in an effort to solve its failures lol [but Blair won three elections!11!]

    I’ve never denied any type can have firm-held beliefs and values, but when they discard the democracy and socialism in a supposed ‘democratic socialism’ party, after losing 4 elections, in favour of what pleases powerful interests, it’s pretty plain to see what lies beneath those decisions.

  8. Regarding the Ashcroft poll, if the results of the by election replicate those numbers, I dread it. Its not the result that bothers me, its what I would expect, ( the area is full of Labour’s Asian clients.) However, the forecasts of the post 2015 sunlit uplands of joy, hope, and sex and fun for all, are more than I can stand.

  9. @NICK P
    Would you expect the Tories to be popular at the moment in a constituency with a high Asian immigrant population ?
    Many of these people will have had benefits chopped or dropped and they wont be thinking how lucky they are not to be still living in Pakistan.

  10. @ben foley
    The wrong guy for the Green message Ben, sorry. I would suspend all spending on “Green issues” tomorrow.

  11. @Chouenlai

    “its what I would expect, ( the area is full of Labour’s Asian clients.)”

    “Many of these people will have had benefits chopped or dropped and they wont be thinking how lucky they are not to be still living in Pakistan.”

    Are we heading into moderation again here and then a reappearance under a fifth pseudonym?? If so, can I suggest the moniker “Nelson Mandela” this time, just so we can recognise the source of your many liberal and fair-minded observations? lol

  12. chou
    Would you expect the Tories to be popular at the moment in a constituency with a high Asian immigrant population ?
    Many of these people will have had benefits chopped or dropped and they wont be thinking how lucky they are not to be still living in Pakistan.

    Leaving aside the fact you seem to veering into BNP territory here, the Asians I know are mostly hard-working and (far too many of them!) Tory voting.

  13. @chouenlai

    I wasn’t expecting you to agree with me, just thinking I needed to explain what I had in mind with the phrase “late C20 capitalism is built on illusions”.

  14. @NickP

    “Leaving aside the fact you seem to veering into BNP territory here, the Asians I know are mostly hard-working and (far too many of them!) Tory voting.”

    Exactly the message that the good Baroness Warsi keeps telling us!!!

  15. 50-52% for Labour is what I expect in F&H so no surprise there – the LD vote is interesting though.

    The interest in the BE is not so much the Labour share but what happens to the other parties.

    The tories need to stay the right side of 30% (which they should manage).

    The LDs are probably putting some effort into the by election as three wards are proposed to go into Cable’s redrawn seat at the next election.
    Anything above 9% will be a pretty good result for them.

  16. @SoCalLiberal – “… demographics and voting demographics are what color in the electoral maps.”

    Thank you for the informative response to my post about the so-called “rule”. Also enjoyed the partially moderated response to another poster. Good to see that your unfailing good manners do not preclude the neccessity of getting roiled up for the occassional shark hunt.

    Here is a little morsel from Hunter S’s coverage of the ’72 campaign:

    “… I suspected that he’d taken a hint from Reagan and hired a public relations firm to give him a new image. Henry Hyde denied this emphatically. ‘That’s not his style,’ he said. ‘Mr Nixon runs his own campaigns. You’d find that out pretty quick if you worked for him.’
    ‘That’s a good idea,’ I said. ‘How about it?’
    ‘What?’ he asked humourlessly.
    ‘A job. I could write him a speech that would change his image in twenty-four hours.’ ”

    A minor point: Schmitz ran as the American Independent Party candidate for president in the 1972 election – Nixon’s candidate Hinshaw had edged him out of California’s 35th congressional district (Nixon’s permanent residence at the time was in San Clemente)… the challenger from the right to Nixon for Republican nomination was John M Ashbook.

  17. Ben Foley @crossbat

    “I would have more respect for the Labour Party if it tried persuading people of its values, rather than always chasing public opinion is if it was immovable”

    Well you have just dismissed the number one trait of every election *winning* party- whether Labour or Tory in UK or of whatever stripe overseas.

    Dave is an arch proponent- as was Maggie (until she went a little dotty after the 1987 victory).

    Craig @crossbat

    “I know a New Labour apologist like yourself sees electability the be-all and end-all, but there comes a point when there’s little point: if you’ve discarded your beliefs, and all you’re offering is Thatcherism with different faces, you needn’t bother. ”

    Sorry but you remind me of the American phrase “There was a man who would rather be right than President”.

    Only of course the amusing irony in your case is- as a “socialist” (whatever that means these days in a 21st century advanced capitalist democracy)- you are actually a man who’d rather be wrong and is not even interested in being President !

    Graham

    “I see Ashcroft has carried out a telephone poll on the Feltham&Heston by-election:
    Lab 52%
    Con 30%
    LD 10%
    Oth 8%”

    Since May 2010 that is:

    Labour +6.4%
    Conservative -4%
    Lib Dem -3.8%
    Others -.6%

    5.2% swing to Labour

    Just for fun via ec tool = a Labour majority of 14

    Labour 332 (+64)
    Conservative 243 (-74)
    Lib Dem 48 (-9)
    Others 9 (-1)

  18. Can Cameron afford to veto closer fiscal union for the eurozone?

    And is “protecting the City” actually in the national interest or just in the City’s interest?

    It’s not at all clear what Mr C can do apart from nod through whatever the eurozone want to do. The protecting the City bit doesn’t seem related and didn’t DC say he was in favour of a financial transaction tax in principle, just not a unilateral one?

    Now he’s seems to be AGAINST it on principle.

  19. ROB SHEFFIELD

    “Well you have just dismissed the number one trait of every election *winning* party- whether Labour or Tory in UK or of whatever stripe overseas.”

    No. Plenty try to shape opinion to some extent as well as to follow it. I am not arguing parties should at all times argue for what they believe in, and never try to be good representatives of views that that are not identical to the party’s pre-existing agenda, whatever the cost. I am only arguing that Parties, or their supporters/friends should _sometimes_ try to promote what they believe in.

    “Dave is an arch proponent- as was Maggie (until she went a little dotty after the 1987 victory).”

    She wasn’t. She combined _some_ “chasing public opinion” with some careful selling of policies that weren’t initially popular and with some downright unpopular policies when the lead in the opinion polls allowed her to do what she wanted (including after the Falklands war).

    As for Cameron, I can’t tell at the moment what is him, what is the LD ‘orange book’ brigade, and what he genuinely believes has been forced on him by circumstances (that he wouldn’t want to do if he felt he had the choice: I think he has been fooled into thinking he has no choice about things where he does). But I would suggest that his opposition to a financial transaction tax is ideological rather than populist (and there may be other examples).

  20. I think I have seen inside job, at least I have seen lots of doc’s on the sub prime crisis, but the problem they all have is that they only scratch the surface. Incidentally Alan Greenspan was involved in the saving and loan scandal, he was brought in by Reagan to gut the regulatory agencies which were sending too many crooked bosses to jail, becoming chairman of the fed was a reward for a job well done. Or something like that I’m hazy on the details. Of course the S&L scandal was the original sub prime scam but not so many got away with it, then there was another wave in the early 90s which was not prosecuted as effectively, but still some got caught and some got bailed. Oh my, there seems to be a pattern here. Anyhow by the time 2007 came around all the regulatory bodies had been gutted and the scams were on a global scale, subprime set off the fire works but the banking system had become and still is a powder keg just waiting to go off. It sort of useful to go on about subprime because it distracts attention from the real source of the credit crunch problems, and its very handy for us brits because we don’t want everyone to know that we are not only in the thick of it but are probably the most guilty of all, as the link below demonstrates.

    http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/Securities/Insight/2011/12_-_December/MF_Global_and_the_great_Wall_St_re-hypothecation_scandal/

    of course the real crime of banking is being able to create money out of thin air, how is it possible that a small portion of the worlds population 0.001% have managed to secure this right for themselves and themselves alone.

  21. Rob Sheffield,

    Labour is + 8.4 since 2010

    swing Con to Lab – 6.2%

  22. Nick

    DC and GO’s opposition to the FTT is most probably a personal financial one, but we should bear in mind that our entire financial services industry is built on sand and even the smallest nudge could cause it to collapse, it might be that FTT is that nudge or a least we dare not take the chance. As regards the city’s interests and the countries interests, I think we are like a kidnap victim, it is in our interests that our kidnappers don’t come to harm while they go out shopping because they are the only ones who know where we are and have the key. That metaphor could use some work but you get the point.

  23. @Craig

    “I know a New Labour apologist like yourself ….

    Are you sure you didn’t mean a bourgeois, capitalist-loving paper tiger, hell bent on crushing the glorious proletariat …….(continued on Page 94).

    Dave Spart rides again! lol

  24. Feltham & Heston

    If the Ashcroft poll is accurate it is a stunningly good result for the Lib Dems. A loss of only 3.8% since 2010 when the national polls are showing falls of around 12% nationally. Why is the Lib Dem vote holding up so well in F&H – of all places?

    Mr. Chou, I was very disappointed in your inappropriate comments about this By-election – espsecially so since I really enjoy your “chellenging” posts so much, as a general rule. I thought you were a rather more cautious gentleman than that!

  25. Tony dean

    I’m not surprised that the libdem vote holds up in a prosperous Asian area.

  26. We keep on having posts describing F&H as an Asian area – either described as “Labour’s Asian clients” I suppose implying they are poor or as a “Prosperous Asian area” implying they are disposed towards LibDem/Cons. I know quite a few people, both extended family and colleagues at work who live in this area including a District Judge and a Barrister – they are all white. What are the ethnic demographics?

  27. Lord Ashcroft’s poll details are here:

    http://www.lordashcroft.com/news/08122011_feltham_and_heston_byelection_poll_by_lord_ashcroft.html

    This is his own ‘Labour should be doing better’ article, you have to scroll down to the bottom of the page to get to the links to the results summary and data tables. Lord A’s website design is almost as obscure as to where/if he pays his taxes.

    As others have said, the odd thing is how un-odd it is. No UKIP or Green surge, no Lib Dem collapse or revival, just the same decline as elsewhere. Of course the polls could all be wrong and the Bus-Pass Elvis Party Elvis Party could storm to victory – the party was created in protest at the capitalist system which turned Elvis Presley “into a fat media joke” according to Wiki. Which suggests they haven’t heard of ‘Colonel’ Parker.

  28. Tony –

    At the time of the 2001 census it was 60% white, 30% Asian, (10% everyone else). Of course, those figures are 10 years out of date now.

  29. @SoCalLiberal

    You said “…I guess there’s a lot about Belgium I don’t know (I didn’t know about the differences between French and Dutch speakers, I just thought the people there spoke French). I need to go though (I’ve heard the food is excellent)…”

    Have you ever heard of a “cold reading”? It is vague statements that are usually true about a given subject, even if you don’t know anything about it. A cold reading for an American in a European country (including the UK) would be:

    “I landed at airport X and eventually managed to get through the queues, then caught a taxi to the hotel. The cars are much smaller than you’d think and reception is a bit more fussy, but I managed to check in OK. The rooms are smaller, the bathroom is a bit strange, and the television channels are totally different, but I managed to find CNN. I tried to watch the news but it all seemed to be gossip about local politicians who are very angry for some reason. Apparently there’s a dispute between the North/West and South/East, they’re threatening to secede. The folks in the more rural parts are poorer and some of them speak a different language. The people are prettier than you’d think and some of them have even got good teeth, but they do seem scruffier. I managed to rent a car and went for a drive but it was difficult: all the signs are different, the switches are funny,[1] and the roads are *much* smaller. If you travel out to the country there are some parts that are absolutely beautiful, but closer to the cities it’s all ugly new buildings and too much concrete,[2] and if you look closely the build quality is awful.[2] But there are some parts in the middle of town close to the cathedral/large church that are preserved[3] and we wandered around, it was nice. Everybody seems to have a mobile phone.[4] I bought a t-shirt but the banknotes are different sizes to each other and smell funny, which threw me.[5] We went out for a meal and tried the local food and drank the local drink and they were nice enough, but I don’t think I’ll bother. What really surprised me was how good the cheese/chocolate/biscuits/ice cream was, they were lovely.[6] It was late so I popped down to the lobby to get some food, and there was a vending machine that sold sweets, but it didn’t take banknotes and I didn’t have the right coins, so I gave up.[7]”

    And now you know how to bluff that you’ve visited Europe… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

    [1]: The switches and displays in European cars minimise lettering in English, preferring iconography. US cars have more English in them.
    [2]: Every industrial city in Europe had the centre bombed out of it in WW2 and was redeveloped cheaply in the 50’s and 60’s
    [3]: Tourist traps for many years now, tend to avoid redevelopment if it survived WW2
    [4]: More dense, more concentrated population and buildings make it easier and cheaper to use wireless telephony than lay landline
    [5]: US Dollar notes are the same size and shape and colour regardless of denomination. This is rare amongst European currency.
    [6]: For some reason I don’t understand, the sweets and snacks in Europe are much better than the US. I try to take HobNobs when visiting the US.
    [7]: European labour laws make it difficult to hire people very cheaply, so jobs that would be filled by a youth in the US may be filled by a machine in Europe, hence the wider number of vending machines, and those that take coins.

  30. Thank you Anthony – I thought it was still a majority white area. Even allowing some movement since 2001 there is still probably just about a white majority in the seat, although it is probably close. However, many Asians, especially Sikhs vote Conservative in my experience – particularly in recent years with their obvious mercantile advance and successes of their children in educational spheres.

    The Ashcroft figures, if correct in the final outcome, seem disappointing but not by any means disastrous for the Government parties IMO.

  31. @Rob Sheffield
    Equally, you remind me of the ambitiousless conservative that tells you “that’s life” and it’s “the real world” when you raise concerns at the spiralling inequality that sees hard-working families in the service sector scrape around subsistence whilst their counterpart in the financial sector takes in evermore ludicrous multiples of that. Or the person who feels vindicated at watching Clegg monumentally betray his voters on their university-tuition policy, because that sort of thing is just moon-on-a-stick nonsense. Or, what could put it better: the sort of Labour stalwart the party’s inundated with, who questions whether being a socialist is even possible in the 21st century with its clearly amazing capitalism. :lol:

    @Crossbat11
    Sorry, was it the renowned Marxist terms “New Labour” and “apologist” that set you off?

    Or has it just became compulsive now to start ranting about socialists and Foot at every mention of New Labour being not that much more progressive than their predecessor (who personally labelled them her biggest legacy, let us not forget).

  32. @ Martyn

    I have never been to the USA. Your explanations act as a kind of “cold read” reverse for the USA – thanks! And, if I ever do go, I’ll remember my hobnobs!

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