Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, Others 14%. After a nine point lead for Labour yesterday, we have an outlier in the other direction today, strongly suggesting the underlying Labour lead remains at around 5 points.

Meanwhile the monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent also shows a two point Labour lead (in fact, it’s almost identical to YouGov). Topline figures there with changes from ComRes’s last telephone poll a month ago are CON 37%(+3), LAB 39%(+1), LDEM 10%(-4), Others 14%. The sharp drop in Lib Dem support is probably just a reversion to the mean, after an usually high figure a month ago.

There is also a second ComRes poll for the News at Ten, which asked about support for the strikes on Wednesday. 38% of people thought public sector workers were right to strike, 47% disagreed (close to the YouGov/Sunday Times questions on whether people supported or opposed the strike, suggesting the contrasting findings in the ComRes/BBC poll were indeed down to asking whether strikes were “justified”, rather than whether people supported or opposed them)


248 Responses to “YouGov and ComRes show 2 point Labour leads”

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  1. RICHARD in Norway

    “Quite correct they don’t do politicking, but only cos they ain’t got the brains for it”

    Not a fan then Richard ?

    Not enough red meat for you-not apocalyptic enough ?

    Only joking-if EZ goes t*ts up-you will get your Apocalypse. JUst hang in there . :-)

  2. Alec
    “I just can’t see why this recession will be mild and have no idea why they seem to think the Eurozone problems will be sorted out next year – next year is the really bad year for them”

    It won’t be, and they won’t be. It’s all part of the confidence game. They are hoping that this line will reassure the markets. We ain’t seen nothing yet. Buy gold.

  3. KEN

    @”……….I am obviously an admirer of GO, he has grown into the job”

    Me too -the Boy done good-always thought he would.

  4. SMUKESH……….Flatlining gesture politics, embarrassing.

  5. Rob

    ” Too early to say that: we need to see what happens once the EZ calms down; plus what thins look like this time next year”

    I can tell you now what will happen when(if) the Eurobond clams down. The markets will find some other poor sod to pull apart. And they are doing it with our bailout money. What you guys don’t get is that the destruction of economy after economy is very profitable for some people, so you get loads of advise from “market analysts” saying what must be done to save the euro but these same people are betting against the euro with our money, safe in the knowledge that if they lose, they will get bailed out again

    It’s time to close the markets, audit all the financial institutions and stop giving them money under duress. This sh*t is being done on purpose, they can’t make money building the economy but they can make loads destroying it very quickly. The only way to stop it is to ban leverage, you play with the money you got and nothing more.

  6. interesting how cameron and osbornes constant leaking of statements that should be announced in parliament first is met by silence from journalists ,commentators etc who used to attack blair and brown for the very same thing.
    channel 4 news did an excellent dissection of the so called 30 billion spending boost to the economy. 5 billion will be after the next election and 20 billion of it to be invested in infrastructure over 10 years brought an admission from the treasury “We haven’t worked out exactly how this is going to work.”.

  7. Bill P
    “Like Neil Kinnock in 1984, Ed Miliband is finding out that being Labour leader during a big strike is a lose-lose situation.”

    Aye, well that might be the received wisdom, but the polling facts don’t bear it out.

    The ICM poll of March 84 had Con 38, Lab 38. Their poll of March 85 had Con 36, Lab 36.

    The only time that the Tories nosed ahead of Labour was during the disgracefully one-sided reporting of Orgreave. And even then the Tories only briefly and marginally nosed ahead of Labour.

  8. Nice filip from tonight’s YG, but all I take from it really is confirmation that Saturday’s nightmare figures were a definite outlier.

    I don’t think anything has fundamentally changed. Just a bit of “solar flare” activity on the surface of the bright burning ball of consistency we’ve been seing for a while.

    The OECD forecasts are pretty sanguine, and don’t make pretty reading. At least they seem to have overcome their undue optimism, but I agree that they’re probably still not pessimistic enough (in terms of reality – I’m not saying it’d be good for the world economy for them to be pessimistic!).

    What makes it slightly harder to spin for the Opposition is the OECD’s apparent support for deficit reduction. You can’t really whip Osborne with their forecast and simultaneously dismiss their views as rubbish (well, you can, but it generates a little cognitive dissonance).

    As for the strike, well I did say a few months ago that large-scale industrial action poses at least as many problems for Labour as for the government. The unions have been desperately trying to shift the agenda by talking about dinner ladies and health care assistants on less than £15,000 pa. Of course those people exist, but I don’t think the public are particularly fooled. Most of the public sector workers who down tools on Wednesday will be on a fair chunk more than that.

    Anecdotally, the police staff in my office are not going on strike. Neither of them really knew what the strike was about. When one of them looked it up on the internet, they both agreed that it wasn’t worth losing the money for. One will be at work. The other (part-timer) has shifted her rota around so that her rest day falls on Wednesday. That isn’t as an act of solidarity; it’s because she has three children in school and can’t afford childcare.

  9. Ken.

    Ed M lacks a killer punch.

    Ed M knocked out his own brother in a cold-blooded knife in the back scenario.

    Remind me. Which way do you want to play the argument again?

  10. Cameron and Osborne are a credible double act, there is chemistry. I don’t see chemistry between Miliband and Balls, if anything there is a nervous tension, almost a lack of confidence in each other, perhaps that is what the public instinctively sense, and of course that sense resonates back to Blair and Brown’s ice-cream moment, in the latter part of their doomed experiment. Like the audience in a theatre, the public smell the fear.

  11. Cute Ken. You’re a cute arguer, I’ll give you that.

    When the figures tip the Tories’ way, it. “Look at the numbers”. When the figures are as appalling as the ones that GO will unveil tomorrow, it’s “Look at the quality of the Front Bench.”

    Cute.

    Unsustainable as a policy, but cute.

  12. Neil A

    According to this site, hardly anyone will be on strike tomorrow, we will see.
    I know plenty of dinner ladies who are going on strike tomorrow.
    How is your pension by the way? Considerably more than a dinner lady’s , I’ll wager!

  13. LEFTYLAMPTON………….I call it as I see it, it’s the public’s way, they don’t digest the figures, they sniff the air. Until election time, then reality bites, and they give their personal circumstances consideration. At the moment we are all speculating, so it’s a game.

  14. Stephanie Flanders seems rather disappointed that the OECD predictions are not worse still.

    I suspect the inability of Labour to pull clearly ahead (the polls are similar to when they lagged 1% in actual votes cast in May)
    shows the public are not in deficit denial.

    But it could change through a grind of difficult news.

  15. @Stockport Red,

    My pension is fantastic, thanks. It will still be very generous even when the government has trimmed it a little..

    Trying to imagine what your social and/or work situation must be to know “plenty of dinner ladies”. Trade Union steward maybe? Logic suggests that teachers (on more than double the £15k quoted) must outnumber dinner ladies at least five to one, or something is going very wrong with the National Curriculum. Perhaps that’s where all this childhood obesity is coming from?

    I’m sure lots of people will be going on strike tomorrow, more’s the pity. I certainly wouldn’t expect many staff to cross picket lines. I was just sharing the limited experience I have. For what it’s worth, the one teacher I know is going to strike, but then her school will be closed, and she has young children of her own (studying at the school she works at) so she doesn’t really have any option.

  16. “Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, Others 14%. After a nine point lead for Labour yesterday, we have an outlier in the other direction today, strongly suggesting the underlying Labour lead remains at around 5 points.”

    Yeah, I find it surprising because the last few polls seemed to be trending in the opposite direction. Maybe Labour’s lead is widening or maybe it’s static as you say. Is this current YouGov poll part of the normal tracking poll or is it different? I know it seems silly but I always think this creates an impact. YouGov daily tracking will often pick up trends that will be seen in later polls. So YouGov’s showing of Labour’s widening lead would explain the previous polls. If this one is a tracking poll, it might be picking up a trend back to the Tories.

    @ Charles Stuart

    I went to a wedding the other day where the groom was Canadian. His whole family came down for it. I get the feeling that Canadians don’t like us very much. Or maybe Canadians are just naturally cold and reserved people. Apparently, there’s a “Canadian tradition” where the wedding ring is given to the bride and groom by a hockey player. I’m not sure if the guy presiding over the wedding made that up or not (the little kid was in a hockey uniform) but it was fun to believe.

  17. STOCKPORT RED………It’s a bit pointless for dinner ladies to turn up, if the teachers and kids don’t, it’s an enforced strike for them, as it is for the kids.The kids are the victims, but of course, they are defenceless.

  18. Ken.

    You want my honest opinion of EdM?

    I’d love my politicians to be street corner bruisers. That was the political environment I grew up in and I think it raised hard, honest men.

    But the modern world ain’t like that. The post of LoO doesn’t call for someone to stand there bare-chested shouting, “I’ll take you all on.” If you believe, sincerely, as I do, and as EdM does, that this Govt has led us into a disastrously ill-conceived gamble and the bookies’ lads are cracking their knuckles in anticipation of some action, you don’t bawl from the rooftops what you would have done instead.

    No. You bob and weave. You pop up with a speech here (slight on detail, big on general principle) or a question in the House there (usually one guaranteed to bring the Flashman out of the PM). You plant seeds in the public mind then you vanish out of the line of fire.

    Why do anything else in the modern world? If Osbourne’s economics are correct, he’s won the 15 Election.If they are fundamentally botched, Labour emerges in early 14, pointing to the chapter and verse of how they had said so all along. From Summer 10 onwards. They did it frequently enough to leave the public thinking “Yeah, they WERE saying that weren’t they?” But they did it subtly enough to have vanished every time the Tories tried to land a punch on them.

    And be fair. Osbourne and Cameron played EXACTLY the same tactics when things went tits up in Autumn 08. They vanished for 6 months. and they only re-emerged on the all-out offensive after the 09 Budget gave them the high ground.

    I predict that tomorrow’s Statement will give Labour the high ground to land a few well aimed blows tomorrow. They will then retire to their tents and wait for Budget 12 to give them yet more opportunity. The real crux will come at Budget 13 onwards. THEN we’ll see politics in the raw re-commence.

  19. @ LEFTYLAMPTON

    Look at the Scottish crossbreaks! :P

  20. StatGeek.

    As great man once said to me: Details are for second rate minds. I see the big picture…

  21. Neil A
    Governor at two schools actually, I assume you were trying to taint my argument by suggesting I was a trade union official.
    Also interesting to read from Ken that it all down to the wicked headteachers, the two I know wanted to keep their school open.
    Neil, happy for you that your pension is doing fine.
    My dinner ladies have had their wages frozen and are expected to pay 3% extra into their pension sceme but the money is not going into the pension scheme but to the treasuery!

  22. @Stockport Red,

    Taint’s too strong a word. “Sly dig” would probably be how I’d describe my efforts at jossing people. Actually the main question was genuine, I really was trying to imagine who would know plenty of dinner ladies and you’ve answered the question. Fair dos!

    For what its worth, my wages have also been frozen, and I am also being asked to pay 3% extra to the Treasury for my pension, along with other changes. But I accept that it was a very good pension to start with.

    But, whatever, my argument was that the unions are trying to push the cases of the very low paid public servants to the fore, and hope that noone notices that very many public sector workers (myself included) enjoy very satisfactory arrangements indeed. It doesn’t appear so far that the tactic is really working.

    I’ve said repeatedly to my more militant police colleagues that it’s no good trying to drum up public support for our cause, because the second people find out what our salary and pension arrangements are they’ll be outraged and want to cut us off at the knees.

  23. @ Colin

    Monetary policy is supportive, with the Bank rate at 0.5% and quantitative easing being resumed. Further expansions of quantitative measures are warranted.
    ——————————————

    It’s not too hard to run an economy when you can fire up the printing presses & the OECD are patting you on the back for it… the world has changed; no more nonsense about ‘maxed out credit cards’. Government really does have a magic money tree.
    8-)

  24. If I could print my own notes, I expect I’d never have to use my credit cards….

  25. Neil

    I said a couple of weeks ago, and I’ll repeat again.

    When i was in the higher education sector in the early 90s, there were regular articles in the trade press telling us that we were stupid for sticking to the boring final salary schemes whilst the private sector defined contribution schemes were booming.

    i don’t recall the howls of complaint about public sector pensions being deafening then.

    Pensions are a long term issue. The relative benefits of different approaches to pensions change with the years. Yes, public sector pensions are relatively generous today, but that hasn’t always been the case.

    And of course, in part, the strike on Wednesday IS ideological. It is a Public Sector stepping up and saying that they have had enough of being put forward as the root cause of our current ills. It’s a Public Sector saying, “You say that we are an unnecessary burden on the country. Look what happens when we are not there. And then grow up in your thinking.”

    More power to them.

  26. NEIL A
    I don’t often comment here and I can see you are a reasonable man and I enjoy your contributions but I think if you are being honest it was a bit more than a sly dig?
    We could have a lenghy debate about the changes to public sector pensions, whether they are really necessory, as they are going down as a % of GDP etc,etc.We will have to leave it for another day, meanwhile the dinner ladies are very worried.

  27. @lefty Lampton (1.08)

    “When i was in the higher education sector in the early 90s, there were regular articles in the trade press telling us that we were stupid for sticking to the boring final salary schemes whilst the private sector defined contribution schemes were booming.”

    Lefty,
    I find your comment very surprising. My recollection of the 90s was that most of the private sector which had pension schemes had final salary schemes. Final salary was always understood to be the best option which is why so many people were upset when final salary schemes started closing (certainly for new employees) in about 2000 and accelerating in subsequent years.

  28. Early morning woken up!
    On the matter of the strikes by the public sector: I am reminded of Frank Cousin:
    ‘If it is going to be a free for all, then I want to be part of the All”. I think he meant by that was that in a free market society where competition is the shibboleth the organised workers will use their position to exploit the forces of supply and demand.

    ROB SHEFFIELD. Your figures and the post above about the 1984-85 Strike showing Kinnock level pegging with Thatcher proves the old cliche to be correct. BLUES normally claw back poll deficits

    Neil Kinnock waited until the miners were losing before attacking the strike.

    The final salary for a school teacher not in leadership posts is £36K. The hourly ate of pay is £29. A solid , lower middle class pay rate. (Unless you are a woman married to a man with a proper job!) (or a man married to a woman with a proper job!)
    Sorry: in the public sector we must now use the word PARTNER. To avoid being heterosexist or biased towards the Judaeo-Christian tradition.

    COLIN.
    Thank you for the post. I think that my traditionalist view of schooling is in line with Labour forbears who eschewed ‘liberal’ ideas on education. You may know that Rousseau having written Emile, ignored this philosophy and sent his own children to the best school in Paris- staffed, of course, by Jesuits. Our own leftist leaders do similar things today.

  29. ChrisLane1945

    I was going to comment on what a profligate lot, you English are! Then I checked, and that 36k is only Inner London. For most of England and Wales, the top of the scale is 31.5k as opposed to 34.2 in Scotland.

    I was amazed, however, to see that you have an “unqualified” teacher pay scale (top salary 25k). I have long been puzzled by the references, by those in England, to poorly paid “cover” staff. Now I understand why.

    Here, you cannot teach (or even cover for an absent teacher) without being registered with the GTC. That has been the case since 1968.

    It is the GTC which determines competencies for teaching, and leadership roles, and approves (or not) qualifications from those without Scottish training.

    Scottish teachers are “professional” in a way that doesn’t seem to apply in South Britain. Someone upthread (or in a previous thread) suggested that professionalism entailed charging fees as opposed to being salaried.

    Again that wouldn’t apply here to lawyers and many medical professionals who are salaried, yet still part olf their appropriate professions. Maybe that too is different in your part of the world.

  30. “lawyers” should have read “some lawyers”.

  31. I don`t know whether Ed Milliband will be a winning candidate,but if his brother was chosen,Labour wouldn`t have had a chance…The banana photo would have done it for him

  32. @ Smukesh,

    I think Ed M stands a better chance of winning than any of the other current leaders. People do not dislike him, they simply do not think he is doing his job yet – which is to come up with a credible alternative way to govern & manage the economy.

    He has eschewed PR gimicks like hugging hoodies & cuddling huskies… he is a serious politician. Hip hip hooray. Having chosen the road, he needs some serious policies & new political ideas with which to travel it. We will have to wait a while for those & will just have to live with the polling consequences, meantime.

    Finally, I understand Ann in Wales’ despair regarding Ed’s reluctance to wholeheartedly back the strikes. But I thought he made his position very clear in his Chanel 4 interview a couple of nights ago. It sounded entirely reasonable to me – & I am a fairly outspoken supporter of most union actions.
    8-)

  33. Amber

    I take from your post that Ed M is a serious politician, but that we have no idea what he is serious about.

    Was that the message that you intended to convey?

  34. Leftylampton,

    So even during a hugely controversial strike of a type that was supposed to have been abolished in 1980-1982, Kinnock was unable to establish a big lead over the Tories? I think that rather proves my point. I don’t think anyone can claim that things went well for Kinnock in that strike.

    The 1974 miners’ strike was similarly disastrous: despite the almost comprehensive failure of the Tory government of 1970-1974, Labour’s share of the vote fell dramatically in February 1974.

    Ed Miliband has clearly decided that his best way of avoiding this problem is to put clear purple water between himself from the British labour movement as quickly as possible. He knows that people don’t expect the modern Labour party to back such strikes.

  35. Bill Patrick

    It will be interesting to see how many of the Slab MSPs follow Martin’s call for them to strike in sympathy.

    There may be a developing gulf between British and Scottish Labour – with Slab pressing the wrong buttons at the wrong time.

  36. Ken

    “………It’s a bit pointless for dinner ladies to turn up, if the teachers and kids don’t, it’s an enforced strike for them, as it is for the kids.The kids are the victims, but of course, they are defenceless.”

    oh, puke. My Kids are delighted at the chance of a day off.

  37. @ Old Nat

    “Here, you cannot teach (or even cover for an absent teacher) without being registered with the GTC. That has been the case since 1968.

    It is the GTC which determines competencies for teaching, and leadership roles, and approves (or not) qualifications from those without Scottish training.

    Scottish teachers are “professional” in a way that doesn’t seem to apply in South Britain. Someone upthread (or in a previous thread) suggested that professionalism entailed charging fees as opposed to being salaried.

    Again that wouldn’t apply here to lawyers and many medical professionals who are salaried, yet still part olf their appropriate professions. Maybe that too is different in your part of the world.”

    I did not know that. I think it’s a good rule. Teachers must be qualified before they can teach in the classroom. I’m curious to find out from you what occurred in 1968 when this regulation went into effect. Were teachers grandfathered in under the old rules if they didn’t meet the new qualifications? Or were teachers fired if they failed to meet the new qualifications? And what was the reaction of the teachers’ unions?

    I think one can be a professional regardless of whether they’re salaried or charge per the hour for their services. In fact, for most young lawyers and doctors, it’s expected that they’ll work for someone else and be salaried (or at least it was). And one is considered a professional either way. Of course maybe this is yet another distinct British/English/Scottish/Welsh/Manx cultural difference that I’m discovering. I think that the doctors and lawyers who go out on their own (especially when they’re young) are generally more entrepreneurial and tend to be more similar to MBAs in terms of their personalities.

    Teachers can sometimes charge. Presumably you were a teacher before you were a headmaster. If that was the case, when you were a teacher, did you ever tutor students on the side (for either academic lessons or for standardized tests) to supplement your income? I knew a number of teachers who did that when I was in middle school and high school.

  38. I hope none of you know this woman (or have had to deal with her).

    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/11/28/british-woman-arrested-for-racist-rant-on-tram/

    :(

    (IMHO….I’m not sure she’s being arrested for the right offense but if anyone deserves it).

  39. @ Chris Lane

    “The final salary for a school teacher not in leadership posts is £36K. The hourly ate of pay is £29. A solid , lower middle class pay rate. (Unless you are a woman married to a man with a proper job!) (or a man married to a woman with a proper job!)
    Sorry: in the public sector we must now use the word PARTNER. To avoid being heterosexist or biased towards the Judaeo-Christian tradition.”

    Omg, I love you! You are using my word “heterosexist”! Do you know how hard it is for me to prompt left wing, educated, politically correct types to use this word? And you’re using it! This pleases me to no end.

    £29 an hour is not a bad salary at all. Though I think one would still find it hard to live in London or similarly priced areas under that salary….at least live comfortably. The overall salary though might lend itself to teachers taking up additional jobs on the side. You guys teach year round right? I told you about my friend from Sunderland. When she came to the U.S. as a little girl, her parents were surprised to learn of such a thing as a summer break.

    Male spouses of teachers should receive the same benefits and privileges that female spouses do. I don’t see why you couldn’t use “spouse” as well as “partner.” I also don’t think that requiring your usage of the term “partner” is related to bias either for or against Judeo-Christian tradition.

  40. @ Lefty Lampton

    “Ed M lacks a killer punch.

    Ed M knocked out his own brother in a cold-blooded knife in the back scenario.”

    That’s the weird thing about Ed Miliband. Like he’s someone who comes off like a goofy, immature, teenager. It hurts him politically because he looks unsure and unready.

    Yet, those who closely follow British politics and have observed him closely, he’s a very ruthless and Machiavellian guy.

    If this was something broadly known to the public, it might hurt Miliband’s popularity but it might make him seem more like a leader.

  41. CHRISLANE1945: “Sorry: in the public sector we must now use the word PARTNER. To avoid being heterosexist or biased towards the Judaeo-Christian tradition.”

    I completely agree with you; being forced to use the word PARTNER completely undermines the depth of the union between two loving people. I´m sure you´ll agree with me then that as a Scottish man who is currently fighting to obtain the right to marry his long term boyfriend (as opposed to simply partnering, like something from Primary school) that everyone deserves the right to call their union a marriage, and the person they love their Husband or Wife.

    Here´s the link, I´m sure we can count on your support.

    http://www.equalmarriage.org.uk/consultation.php

    For any interested in the polling data on the Scottish consultation (with only ten days to go, so please, PLEASE sign in support if you agree);

    “To what extent do you agree or disagree that gay couples should be allowed to marry in Scotland’s churches?”

    In response, 19 per cent strongly agreed and 31 per cent agreed; 14 per cent neither agreed nor disagreed, 18 per cent disagreed, and 18 per cent strongly disagreed.

    The poll of 1,233 Scottish adults was conducted between 16 November and 18 November 2011.

    That´s 50% in favour, 36% opposed.

  42. Bill P

    I’m not sure that those figures “prove” anything. The 84-85 strike dudn’t happen in a vacuum. It started 9 months after Labour’s worst GE performance in 60-odd years. It took place during the long upswing after the 80-81 recession. Why do you think that, in the absence of a strike, Kinnick would automatically have been expected to establish a big lead? Given his starting point in Autumn 83, being neck and neck with Maggue by Spring 85 was an achievement in itself.

  43. @Joe James B – “Stephanie Flanders seems rather disappointed that the OECD predictions are not worse still.”

    That’s not quite how I saw it, but there another related point. Despite the OECD’s severe downgrade, there is a sense that policy makers are still being over confident and are still behind the game.

    The OECD and OBR have been consistently and comprehensively over estimating economic growth all year. The OBR has in addition been extremely optimistic in their assessment of public sector redundancy levels and private sector job creation.

    I personally believe that both organiations are politcally neutral and would not ever consider bending data to suit their wider economic viewpoint, so we can reject any notion that they have played with the figures. This leaves us with the options that they are either missing data, misinterpreting the effect of events, thier models are not functioning in the extraordinary circumstances we now live in, or a combination of all four.

    I currently expect to see more downgrades as time goes by and for the situation to get much worse. The OECD assumes 2012 will see the resolution of the Eurozone crisis. But 2012 is the crunch year. It’s the year with the biggest debt rollover in the EZ as maturing bonds need to be replaced, and this will come on top of widening annual deficits as they enter a sharp recession. Against this background, I really think the OECD forecasts are again, over optimistic.

    We’re in real trouble hear, with a 40 year economic orthodoxy collapsing around our ears. We haven’t yet begun to work out what the next orthodoxy is going to be. We need to do this quickly, and then woork out a way to get to this new point in the least painful way.

  44. @ Amber Star

    “Finally, I understand Ann in Wales’ despair regarding Ed’s reluctance to wholeheartedly back the strikes. But I thought he made his position very clear in his Chanel 4 interview a couple of nights ago. It sounded entirely reasonable to me – & I am a fairly outspoken supporter of most union actions.”

    I am having trouble finding politicians who will back protests. Or at least stand up fully against the proposed eviction. I don’t get it really. The mindset that opposes protests. Opposing strikes I get.

    @ Richard in Norway

    Check this out. A judge slams down both both parties by rejecting a proposed settlement between the SEC and Citigroup (a big Wall Street Bank) for extensive securities fraud.

    http://www.emptywheel.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/111128-Rakoff-Citi.pdf

    It’s a short read but well done.

  45. @ Scotswaehae

    “I completely agree with you; being forced to use the word PARTNER completely undermines the depth of the union between two loving people. I´m sure you´ll agree with me then that as a Scottish man who is currently fighting to obtain the right to marry his long term boyfriend (as opposed to simply partnering, like something from Primary school) that everyone deserves the right to call their union a marriage, and the person they love their Husband or Wife.

    Here´s the link, I´m sure we can count on your support.

    http://www.equalmarriage.org.uk/consultation.php

    For any interested in the polling data on the Scottish consultation (with only ten days to go, so please, PLEASE sign in support if you agree);”

    I agree with you on the use of the term “partner.” It is kinda demeaning and confusing. When people use the term “partner”, the common connotation is of business partners.

    I won’t be signing anything since I’m not Scottish or British and I don’t think it’s appropriate for foreigners to be signing petitions for your consultations. Though I assure you that I am in 110% agreement with you on this issue.

    I don’t understand the point of the polling on churches. Why should the government ever be able to tell a church (or any religious institution/congregation) how it may conduct its own affairs?

  46. @ Alec

    “We’re in real trouble hear, with a 40 year economic orthodoxy collapsing around our ears. We haven’t yet begun to work out what the next orthodoxy is going to be. We need to do this quickly, and then woork out a way to get to this new point in the least painful way.”

    You might be right. However, if you are, I’m not sure that those who currently are in charge of running our respective economies understand that. There may be some considerable lag time in understanding this.

  47. Leftylampton,

    The figures prove that the strike was a lose-lose situation for Kinnock. At that stage, he needed a big lead to win, given that the Alliance was back in shut-out-of-the-media third party mode. He didn’t get a big lead: hence, he lost.

    And it would have been much the same result whatever side he chose. As has become traditional amongst Labour leaders, he decided he could take the votes on the left for granted and focused on winning over the marginal voters. After all, they have somewhere else to go; the left-wing voters did not and can be safely taken for granted by Labour leaders, at least in those leaders’ views.

  48. Socialiberal:

    Thanks, any support is appreciated even if you can´t sign the consultation! To be honest it´s a poorly-worded poll, and doesn´t reflect the true nature of the law we are trying to pass, but it is the most recent poll I could find on Scottish opinion with regards to SSM.

    The law mainly wants to instate same-sex marriage, as opposed to civil partnerships, which are a great step in the right direction for equality, but fall short. The bill mainly wants to give couples the right to call themselves married, call one another husband or wife (which for me is the main issue). This will eliminate the possibility of people misconstruing Civil partnerships as unequal to a marriage, and will eliminate the legal argument to support any difference between them (such as things like Military married accomodation being seen as only for people who are married, not partnered etc). There are other important aspects to, as it will allow gay couples to marry anywhere that straight people can (including churches, castles or gardens etc). However, the law clearly states that no church or faith group who do not want to participate in marriage equality do not have to conduct them on their premises, neither will they be forced to perform them.

    Basically churches have the right to refuse gay marriages, but it will give couples like us the right to call ourselves married and be equal in almost all respects to heterosexual couples.

    Hope that clears things up!

  49. So cal

    Thanks but I have already seen it, it seem to be a developing trend that judges are getting more strict with these corporate fraud cases, but we will see

    I recommend the work of Steve keen as regards a replacement for the current failed economic model, a lot of what he says makes sense and he has a good track record in predicting economic crisis, but I don’t think the answer lies with just one school of thought. I don’t think there will be a replacement for the prevailing neo liberal theology anytime soon, the current thesis coming from the high priests is that we are being punished for our lack of devotion, and that the answer is more free markets and more deregulation, its a bit like the aztec’s, when ever anything when wrong the answer was to flay more people alive, which gives me a good idea for stimulus measure, we should build pyramids in the worlds financial centres so we can do the sacrificing openly, I leave it to others to expand on this idea. I’m sure we can all compile a list of likely victims………….

  50. STOCKPORT RED

    @”but the money is not going into the pension scheme but to the treasuery!”

    Which is fair-because the Teachers’s Pension scheme is not fully funded. It’s one of the hybrid public sector schemes which requires what is quaintly described as a “Treasury top up”.

    Figures for 2009/10 £bn:-

    Pensions paid £6.8
    Employees’ conts.£ 1.5
    *Employers, conts £3.2
    *Treasury top up £2.1

    * aka -The Taxpayer

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