There is a new Angus Reid poll up on their site here. Topline figures with changes from last month are CON 33%(nc), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 8%(-2), Others 17% (including UKIP unchanged on 7%). There isn’t much change on last month – Angus Reid do tend to show some of the biggest leads for Labour.

Secondly there is a ComRes poll of Londoners, the first I can recall seeing since Brian Paddick was selected as the Lib Dem candidate (and, therefore, the first to have a voting intention question with a proper candidate names for all parties, rather than featuring “a Lib Dem candidate”). Voting intention in the mayoral election stands at Boris 48%, Ken 40%, Brian Paddick 7%, Others on 4%. In a run off between Boris and Ken, they have first and second preferences totalling Boris 54%, Ken 46%.

As far as I can recall the last proper ComRes poll of London voting intentions was in March (there was one that asked which candidate people were inclined to support in September, but it was a small sample and wasn’t really comparable), and showed Ken very narrowly ahead, so this suggests a move towards Boris though, given the difference in the question now that other candidates are known, I wouldn’t read too much into that.


83 Responses to “New Angus Reid and ComRes polls”

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  1. @Anthony Wells
    You don’t give the slightest hint of your own political affiliations on the threads on this website, which is why I choose to post here. (The host of another supposedly non-aligned blog sometimes referred to on this site stands as a marked contrast.)

    Regarding polls by other polling companies, one that really reeked of being led by the group doing the commissioning occurred very early this year. It was commissioned by the major supermarkets with (I think) the aim of challenging the SNP minority government’s proposals limiting out of town developments, consisting of a series of ever more leading and frankly ludicrous questions, probably aimed at generating a single headline to scare off the politicians. ComRes were (I think) the company putting short term profit above principle. Shame on them (and apologies to them if I’m wrong).

  2. Neil A:

    Hence Hartlepool voting in a monkey? I never found out if said monkey found out “he knew what the heck he was talking about” but I shall take it at your word that he did.

  3. SoCalLiberal

    The Scottish crossbreak thing is a joke.

  4. @SoCal
    “Is it beyond the realm of possibility that Brian Paddick could win the mayoral race?”
    ____________
    Is it beyond the realm of possibility that Michelle Bachmann could be the Republican nominee?

    The odds are the same – 66/1.

  5. chouenlai

    “I cannot help thinking that another Labour politician, perhaps a younger mixed race female, would do rather better”

    I’m with you on that thought- shame [snip – AW] got Ken the nomination.

    [I’ve no idea who you are thinking of, but I’m pretty sure it’s not a non-partisan way of describing them! – AW]

  6. John Murphy/Chouenlai/RiN –

    I was pondering that a few months ago: does the fact that the first two Mayors of London happen to be rather larger-than-life charismatic figures mean that it becomes what the public expect and look for in a mayor of London? If the first couple of mayors had been in a different mould, would people have a different perception of what a Mayor for London should be like?

    Phil – my own political affiliations are no secret, I’m a card-carrying Tory. I just keep it separate from my professional career!

  7. @Anthony Wells – I was aware of that.

  8. Anthony

    I think it is a tradition which predates the elected mayor, ken as leader of the glc was even more larger than life than his later incarnation but I can also remember the leader of the glc before him was a jolly fellow, I still remember him chucking wellies at a wellie throwing contest, which doesn’t sound very exciting but at the time it was quite risque for a politican, how times have changed!

  9. SOCALLIBERAL:

    I’ve lived in London since the mid 1970s… in all that time only once have I voted for Mr Livingstone…and strangely not because he was too left wing or because of the many radical causes he espoused unfashionably early in the 1980s…but more because I felt London needed a figure that might really make London government more unitary….and that seemed unlikely to be Ken…who was always a divisive if talented figure and an original thinker….

    Boris seems to me to epitomise the very things I dislike most about celebrity politics…and although he’s a very intelligent man…he despoils his gifts with attention seeking antics worthy of a precocious child… and I wish to give none offence…you asked for my view and that is all it is…my view and no more worthy of attention than that….

    I’m try these days on this site hard not to be non-partisan…

    I respect Mr Paddick but I don’t really understand why he wants to be mayor of London….if only London was an elected police authority I could think of no one better suited….to be elected to serve…

    .

  10. @Oldnat

    You said “…You forgot the UKPR mantra – Don’t look at the Scottish cross breaks!…”

    * The first rule of UKPR – don’t talk about the crossbreaks.
    * The second rule of UKPR – don’t talk about the crossbreaks.

    I am, of course, frequently[1] mistaken for Brad Pitt… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

    [1] Obviously “frequently” is used here to mean “very, very rarely”.

  11. Cloud Spotter
    “UKIP one point behind the LDs again. Eventually they should beat the LDs in a poll”

    They’re certainly consistently only just behind LibDems recently. It is beginning to seem like a pattern, even given the MOE.

    It would be ironic if those two polled almost the same popular votes at the next GE, but the LDs won a few dozen seats and UKIP none. I wonder if we might hear less from LDs about PR if that happened? :-)

  12. @Alan,

    I understand that H’Angus the Monkey turned out to be a very effective mayor, and was reelected.

    Pure dumb luck?

    Inside knowledge on the part of the Hartlepool electorate?

    Or just evidence that our politicians are so rubbish that even a man in a monkey suit is an improvement?

  13. @ Pete B

    “I wonder if we might hear less from LDs about PR if that happened? ”

    Why would the LDs say less about PR? Your scenario would be even more definite confirmation that the current FPTP system has totally failed and needs replacing.

    Even if the LDs got 12% of the MPs for 12% of the vote, it would still give them half as many MPs again as they have now.

  14. “(even the official costs at this stage, before they really start to escalate as they invariably will)”

    I believe HS1 was delivered on time and on budget. Why should HS2 have more in common with the Edinburgh trams that the existing HS line (or any HS line on the continent, for that matter)?

  15. Robert C
    Simply because they would no longer be the main beneficiary of such a change. Just wondering…

    Perhaps I’m too cynical?

  16. Neil A

    And indeed he is still Mayor. Though no longer mascot.

  17. RiN,

    That you can recall Horace Cutler (or at least his flair), yet not Paddick, who was your LD mayoral candidate in 2008 says much about Paddick’s political anonymity, your short v long term memory faculties or your LD credentials. Or perhaps a bit of all three. :-)

    As for Opik, his sexual dalliances with a Cheeky Girl/minor celebs and then stand-up comedy (mmm, those things are not mutually exclusive), and his failure to hang onto a decent majority in Montgomeryshire don’t mark him down as a ‘winner’ with the voters. Fair point about ‘larger than life’ characters but, to paraphrase boxing parlance, a good big clown will always beat a good little clown…..

    The LDs may have been better advised to pick a decent and credible character, who also was popular with the voters….?

    Colin Firth’s too busy, I suppose……….

  18. Have to say, as an LD, I am disappointed but not surprised by Brian Paddick’s showing. As a party member, I hung my head in despair when I found out he was our candidate again. If someone has failed once, it is time for someone else to try instead. 7% is even below our current poll ratings.

    I am deeply unenthusiastic about both Boris and Ken. Boris is only in the job because of a revolting stitch up through his Eton chums. How did he win? A massive PR campaign from the Evening Standard. Who is the editor of the Evening Standard? Geordie Greig, ex Eton and Oxford.

  19. @NeilA

    I live in the vicinity of Hartlepool and the story I heard was:

    1) The Labour council decided that wanted a mayor, and who was going to be mayor.

    2) The conducted a “referendum” where you posted to a freepost address for Yes and a paid address for “No”. Furthermore, votes for “No” were only counted if you correctly filled in a form explaining why you didn’t want a mayor.

    3) When the result was an inevitable “yes”, the people of Hartlepool rose up as one, said “stitch up” and voted for a local outspoken character instead.

    4) By all accounts, once he was elected as mayor, he did a good job.

    Although someone from Hartlepool is welcome to correct me if this story’s wrong.

  20. @ Anthony Wells

    “I was pondering that a few months ago: does the fact that the first two Mayors of London happen to be rather larger-than-life charismatic figures mean that it becomes what the public expect and look for in a mayor of London? If the first couple of mayors had been in a different mould, would people have a different perception of what a Mayor for London should be like?

    I was pondering that a few months ago: does the fact that the first two Mayors of London happen to be rather larger-than-life charismatic figures mean that it becomes what the public expect and look for in a mayor of London? If the first couple of mayors had been in a different mould, would people have a different perception of what a Mayor for London should be like?”

    I’m going to speculate here that the answer is no. Urban electorates (in large, global cities anyway) seem to go through taste changes in terms of what they want to see in a mayoral leader. So there was a period back in the 70’s and 80’s when major U.S. cities were busy electing charismatic, larger than life candidates. Often these candidates were minorities. They would win but ultimately decline as their cities declined and all of the enthusiasm for the candidacy wore off on the electorate. The cities would revert and elect very technocratic, quiet, uninspiring, boring candidates.

    So, Los Angeles elected Tom Bradley in 1973 (his campaign ultimately led to Obama’s election nationwide in 08′). But 20 years later with economically devastated neighborhoods, sky high crime rates, corruption, worse than ever city services, and a good chunk of the city burnt to the ground, voters elected a quiet, low key businessman who had never held elected office before.

    In D.C., Marion Berry, who came in ushering an era of change and excitement was ultimately replaced in his final term with low key businessman Anthony Williams.

    New York City is a little different because their mayors tend to be fairly well known but it seems like the larger than life figures get replaced with more quiet figures. So the larger than life Liberal John Lindsay was termed out of office and followed by a low key, party hack Abe Beame. Rudolph Giuliani was replaced by Michael Bloomnberg, a political neophyte and very low key.

    So with London, I don’t know. Voters might like big personalities like Ken and Boris but they could change their minds and go for someone more low key and quietly English.

  21. Oh, and I too despair at the selection of Brian Paddick as the Lib Dems candidate. IMHO, he was just as culpable as Ian Blair in the aftermath of the Stockwell shooting, but regardless of that, he forfeited his claim as a credible candidate when he appeared on I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here.

  22. ANTHONY WELLS;

    Part of the problem most surely rests on the hash we’ve made local government since we bottled out of the Redcliffe-Maud proposals in the late1960s….the incoherence has created a structure wholly unable to nurture local politicians…as distinct from national ones….and the London Mayoralty is yet another victim of this wider political failure.

    As ever we always must start from where we are…and a bit like…the ‘if’ games in history…if Mary Tudor hadn’t died for another five years etc., etc…they’re fun….but in the end they only encourage us to ask the wrong questions….

    For example consider the trouble Labour had in finding a suitable candidate in 2000 who wasn’t Ken Livingstone…. that better describes how diminished the politics of local government had already become than words themselves….this isn’t just a Labour problem….

    To make local government better we must first make it coherent…and then allow it to be local…I suspect that won’t happen because it isn’t sexy…politically speaking… and the party system has become more centrifugal as its embraced fewer and fewer activists…

    At the core of all our problems with local politics is the ramshackle structure we’ve made and remade… these shackle us to corrosive political disengagement ….and honestly if we can’t find something better together than this dreadful mess…that alienates voters from their locality.. then we’re doomed to go on with this…

    So, Anthony, in a sense I think we were always going to get this sort of flashy mayoralty from the outset – London government wasn’t really part of a coherent political reform fashioned with broad consent but just another piece in the quilt of party advantage that we’ve for too long allowed to pass as political reform….and which as we place more obligations on local government undermines the principles of consent in participatory politics in the widest sense….

    And as much I fear the tinkering at a national level and in the House of Lords reforms follows on from where local government reform has already led…..

    I hope that’s not too partisan….

  23. Good Evening.

    Has anyone read the Daily Telegraph on line article about the Conservative Association in Oxford?

  24. Bit of a turn up in tonights polls, Labour lead down to 2.

  25. @ Phil C

    “Is it beyond the realm of possibility that Michelle Bachmann could be the Republican nominee?

    The odds are the same – 66/1.”

    Oh, :(. Do you think the results would be different if you had a non-partisan race? FYI, he’s far more qualified to be U.S. President than she is…notwithstanding the fact that he’s missing a technical qualification.

    @ Old Nat

    “The Scottish crossbreak thing is a joke.”

    :) Yeah, but some people take them seriously.

    Btw, how are the North Carolinians treating you?

  26. @ Robert C

    “Have to say, as an LD, I am disappointed but not surprised by Brian Paddick’s showing. As a party member, I hung my head in despair when I found out he was our candidate again. If someone has failed once, it is time for someone else to try instead. 7% is even below our current poll ratings.”

    I like him too. He didn’t do that well in the last race did he? Like 9% or something?

  27. Hooded

    You have to remember I’ve been out of the country for most of the last decade and before my divorce I was concentrated on assimilating into norweigen society which meant that I watched local tv listened to local radio and read local newspapers, and I only spoke norweigen, apart from a few calls to family and friends none of whom are interested in politics. So Brian would have to have been something special to penetrate all that norweigeness, obviously he wasn’t.

  28. OLDNAT

    ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Hopefully we’ll get the Ipsos-MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor next week. Fieldwork should be going on at the moment.

    The locals should be interesting, as this will be the second go at STV elections. I suspect that there will be fewer Independents this time round, so we may get a better picture of party support levels

    ________________

    Looking forward to the Scottish Ipsos-MORI , don’t think the Libs will be. Wonder if the Scottish Tory’s will have a new leader bounce lol.

    On the locals, I can see only one direction for the SNP and that is more councilors. Yeah they independents can be buggers at times, especially in the Highlands and distort true party loyalties.!! ;)

  29. Hooded

    Colin firth is a bit disappointed with the decision to go into coalition with your lot, I believe. But I suspect you knew that and was just having a gentle dig

  30. @Chris Neville Smith (FPT)
    “I believe HS1 was delivered on time and on budget. Why should HS2 have more in common with the Edinburgh trams that the existing HS line (or any HS line on the continent, for that matter)?”
    _____
    The default model for all big prestige public works projects in this country seems to be that the acknowledged call on public funds is kept to an absolute minimum when the initial commitment/approval is being sought, and then gradually ratcheted up when various points of no return have been reached and the key decision makers have invested too much of their personal political capital to sanction an about face. After £2.8bn for the Olympics turned into £10bn in a jiffy, it might pay to be a bit wary.

    HS1 (the need for which I have never taken issue with incidentally) was an integral part of the business case for the Channel Tunnel yet only finally delivered 13 years after its opening, after numerous financial difficulties with the project and several major engineering rethinks after unforeseen difficulties emerged with successive planned routes.

  31. Very nice. And HS2 is arguably an integral part of having a West Coast main line that can cope with the rising demand for rail travel. You are welcome to say that, unlike the Channel Tunnel and HS1, the UK does not require a properly functioning WCML in the future, but rail users in Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Preston and Glasgow might not see it that way.

    If you’re going to demand that the public must consider that HS2 is bound to go over budget because all government-projects-do-everyone-knows-that, then it’s only fair you also insist the public considers the consequences of pushing the WCML beyond its capabilities.

    For pity’s sake, if continental Europe can get it right, so can we.

  32. RiN,

    I knew he was but I wouldn’t do a ‘gentle dig’ at you…..you’re disappointed too about the coalition, but that doesn’t mean you don’t want a decent LD candidate to represent you in London ? (Lembit apart of course)

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