The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy is out tomorrow, and has topline figures of CON 35%(-2), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 15%(+1). Changes are from the last online ComRes poll a month ago, rather than their parallel telephone polls. The rest of the poll is the usual collection of agree/disagree statements, which I’m hardly a fan of. For example, one of them finds only 27% of people agree that Labour under Ed Miliband would be better at protecting jobs, with 43% disagreeing. On the face of it this is a surprising finding given that Labour normally have a good lead on the issue of employment, but of course, those disagreeing don’t necessarily think the Conservatives would be better than Labour, they could think both parties would be equally good (or bad) – questions like this would be infinitely better done by asking if Miliband/Labour or Cameron/Conservatives would be better at protecting jobs.

A new Opinium survey also surfaced during the week, although the fieldwork was actually done earlier in November, between the 4th and 7th November. For the record though, it had topline figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 10%(+1), Others 18%(-1) – so showing a 4 point Labour lead in line with ComRes tonight and the 5 point Lab leads YouGov have been showly lately.

Later tonight we’ll have the regular YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. As usual I’ll do a proper update on that tomorrow morning.


81 Responses to “ComRes/Sunday Indy – CON 35, LAB 39, LD 11”

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  1. I refuse to be the first to comment

  2. First!

    Once again, two polls with nothing outside of the MoE, but there does seem to be a bit of a shift away from the Tories and Labour, and towards the Others. It’s been about 3 months since Labour were over 42% and 10 months since the Tories were over 40%. Pretty much all polls have had the Tories on 36% or less. On the other hand, the LDs haven’t really benefited, so I suspect the rolling average of the others is doing unusually well.

    Compared with the volatility of the last parliament, this has been a very steady 18 months of polling.

  3. @ Anthony

    Delete RIN’s comment & make me 1st, then everybody will be happy! :-)

  4. Sorry, I should’ve said make Bill 1st :-)

  5. Fifth!

    4% for the SNP. That’s about 46% if it’s in any way accurate.

  6. Almost all the polls in agreement – we need an Angus Reid. :twisted:

  7. Opinium:

    Labour is now further ahead among men than women (by 5% vs. a 3% lead among women)
    ————————————
    Does this mean Dave will stop sucking up to us women, then? ;-)

  8. Amber
    “Does this mean Dave will stop sucking up to us women, then? ;-)”

    I suspect he might be wasting his time with you?

  9. @AMBER

    So David Cameron turns up at your door canvassing. He look straight at your and says, “Vote for me Amber.”

    Now…first reponse, or can it be printed? :P

  10. Typo.

    At you, not at your.

    /faux pas

  11. Testing: Is blow now a word banned by automod?

  12. rasp?

  13. @SoCalLiberal

    I’ve replied to (and congratulated) you on the previous thread.

    Regards, Martyn

  14. Now, goodness knows how that comment got put into moderation!

  15. For some reason, automod does not like the word:
    b e r r y

  16. Perhaps it’s something to do with trolling Rasputin worshippers…

  17. B e r r y then.

    So, Amberstar, was your original post “Blow him a kiss and make rasp-be-rry jam”?

  18. @ Bill

    Yes, I’ve got a lot of daft ones that Anthony may have to delete because I was trying to figure out why automod has taken a sudden dislike to the word b e r r y.
    8-)

  19. @ Bill Patrick

    Close, but no banana :-)

  20. Opinium has some nice charts in their November political report. The leadership graphic is particulary helpful because the data:

    Approve, Neither, Disapprove is much easier to evaluate as a bar chart (IMO, anyway).

    The data is:
    A-N-D
    DC 36%-19%-45%
    EM 20%-39%-41%
    NC 17%-28%-55%

  21. I’ve noticed that one of the Comres questions was

    “The NHS would be safer under Labour than the Conservatives”

    While this is a valid question, I wonder whether answers would be any different if ‘Conservatives’ was replaced by ‘Coalition’ or ‘current government’?

  22. I think that, if there was some way of rejigging politics so that there were no leaders involved, Labour would never lose an election. Remember back when Harriet Harman was keeping the seat warm? Labour were effectively leaderless and yet that was when they made their big progress in the polls.

    IIRC, Kinnock was thought to be a problem. And Michael Foot, well… On the other hand, Blair had his moment of popularity, Smith was respected even before his martyrdom and Callaghan was much more popular than his party.

    In fact, I remember this last fact as being the most interesting impression from the 1979 BBC election coverage: many people seemed to want a Tory government, but with Callaghan as PM!

  23. Chrislane1945,
    The Darlington by-election was in March 83 – a month after Labour’s disaster at Bermondsey.
    I think the other by election you referred to in passing should have been Bromsgrove – rather than Beaconsfield!

  24. Bill Patrick
    “In fact, I remember this last fact as being the most interesting impression from the 1979 BBC election coverage: many people seemed to want a Tory government, but with Callaghan as PM!”

    All sorts of amusing possibilities spring to mind – Labour with Maggie as leader! Tories with Blair….oh.

  25. For what it’s worth here are the last 6 months’ headline ComRes figures for the Sindy/Mirror (online) polls.

    Con 37-36-38-38-37-35
    Lab 37-40-40-38-39-39
    L/D 11-10-11-11-10-11
    Oth 15-14-11-13-14-15

    From June to November inclusive

  26. @Graham

    “I think the other by election you referred to in passing should have been Bromsgrove – rather than Beaconsfield!”

    The Bromsgrove by-election was in 1971 and I remember it very well because, although just too young to vote, I lived in what was then a vast constituency, consisting as it did of parts of south Birmingham (Rubery etc) and BOTH the sizeable towns of Bromsgrove and Redditch. Us Redditchonians always resented our town’s name being subsumed by neighbouring Bromsgrove and were mightily relieved, many years later, when Redditch had grown into a new town of 80,000 plus residents and became a constituency in its own right. Mind you, before then, we had to live through another misnomer of a constituency called Mid-Worcestershire, and a Tory MP called Eric Forth (!!). Our torment wasn’t relieved until he scuttled off to find a safer seat when the Redditch constituency was created and he saw the writing on the wall!

    The Bromsgove by-election of 1971 was interesting on all sorts of counts. It was a two-way fight with no other candidates standing and Terry Davis, the winning Labour candidate, turned over a 15,000 Tory majority on a massive swing. We’d never seen a Labour MP in these parts before and the celebrations on the night of the count, when the result was announced in the early hours, were wild, prolonged and mildly outrageous!

    Labour didn’t hold what was in essence a safe Tory seat for long however, although when Hal Miller regained it for the Tories in February 1974, such was the gargantuan size of the constituency, Terry Davis, the Labour candidate, polled more votes than any other losing candidate in the entire General Election.

    Terry, a good man and constituency MP, went on to win Roy Jenkins old seat in Stechford, Birmingham (now Hodge Hill and held by Liam Byrne), although I have no idea what he’s doing now. His wife, Ann, stood as a Labour candidate in what became Mid Worcestershire and lost to Eric Forth on a number occasions before we became Redditch for the 1997 election.

    Labour won the seat with a certain little lady called Jacqui Smith, in May 1997. Now there hangs a tale………

  27. GRAHAM and CROSS BAT.
    Thanks for the memories!
    I think Beaconsfield was in early 1983, when Michael Foot said that he was very proud of the young Labour candidate and he was sure we would be hearing a lot more of him in the future.

    I wonder what happened to that lawyer who had been introduced by Derry Irvine to a lady from Liverpool, also traing to be a lawyer. She was a daughter of the actor Tony Booth.
    I think that the losing Labour candidate gatecrashed selection meeting in Sedgefield and defeated hard left Les Huckfield…

    On the STETCHFORD by election:
    I remember that very well, and thinking at the time that the swing was very low, in my October 1982 Half Term it was in my first school- Basildon
    (I was on a retreat, in Grimsby of all places, after which I made a huge life style change)

    Bromsgrove was just beforemy O Levels I think. Roy Jenkins resigned as deputy leader of ‘The Party’ soon after that over Europe, as Wilson agreed to the referendum idea to placate Benn.

  28. SORRY.
    BEACONSFIELD by election was in May 1982.

    Disraeli became Lord Beaconsfield in 1876

  29. YouGov Gov App +5 but no increase in government VI figures, just churn.

  30. @ Crossbat11

    “The Bromsgrove by-election was in 1971 and I remember it very well because, although just too young to vote, I lived in what was then a vast constituency, consisting as it did of parts of south Birmingham (Rubery etc) and BOTH the sizeable towns of Bromsgrove and Redditch. Us Redditchonians always resented our town’s name being subsumed by neighbouring Bromsgrove and were mightily relieved, many years later, when Redditch had grown into a new town of 80,000 plus residents and became a constituency in its own right. Mind you, before then, we had to live through another misnomer of a constituency called Mid-Worcestershire, and a Tory MP called Eric Forth (!!). Our torment wasn’t relieved until he scuttled off to find a safer seat when the Redditch constituency was created and he saw the writing on the wall!

    The Bromsgove by-election of 1971 was interesting on all sorts of counts. It was a two-way fight with no other candidates standing and Terry Davis, the winning Labour candidate, turned over a 15,000 Tory majority on a massive swing. We’d never seen a Labour MP in these parts before and the celebrations on the night of the count, when the result was announced in the early hours, were wild, prolonged and mildly outrageous!”

    Bromsgrove….I think that’s where Steven Davies is from or where he was born. I think anyway….

    I can imagine the celebrations being that way. I forgive you. I remember some fairly wild and outrageous celebrations after a few primary victories in early 2008. When you’re young and you’re exceedingly tired and running on the adrenaline and excitement from a major victory…..and then you mix alcohol and kareoke into the picture…that can happen.

    On AndyJS’s 1997 election youtube video, Redditch was one of the later constituencies to declare and it showed as a Labour gain. I’m sure you were happy.

    I guess that’s the benefit of having constituencies that are numbered rather than named. You don’t find yourself in misnamed constituencies where only one part fits in the name and you feel squeezed out or marginalized.

  31. @ Martyn (from the last thread)

    “Congratualtions on your exam success, and I hope you reconsider your decision to practise law sparingly – if you become a full-time lawyer now you retain the option to abandon it later, wheras if you abandon it now, you lose the option to pick it up later. Some of my relatives are permanently poor, so don’t be so youthful as to think that wealth can be causally discarded.

    As for the upcoming Thatcher biopic, I fear it will be disappointing. All agree that Thatcher went to war against domestic and foreign groups and stood for certain values whilst doing so: whether you love her or hate her depends on what you think of those values and groups. From the trailer, it seems that the film values caricature over intellectual argument – we will hear the word “handbag” but not the word “Hayek”.

    IMHO, the gold standard of political biopics is Stones’s Nixon: it’s been (accurately) called a liberal’s distorted vision of a conservative, but Anthony Hopkins got Nixon’s sweaty loathing pugilism without once resorting to caricature – the inner man, not the outer shell, and Stone placed him in a Shakespearean context. From the trailer, I think Streep will get it exactly wrong.

    If you want a Thatcher film worthy of the subject, try “Margaret”, which nailed it despite the fact that the actress (Lindsay Duncan) looks nothing like her, and had some inspired casting (John Sessions darn nearly channelled Geoffrey Howe).”

    Thank you!

    I think I’m looking forward to it just because I’ll actually get the political references in it and enjoy them. So much of great British drama and comedy is that much better when you understand the political references. Maybe I’ll wear my Rose Bird t-shirt when I go to see the movie (I had it made in the style of those Che Guevara t-shirts everyone was wearing a few years ago). She did a lot of things that would have made Margaret Thatcher very unhappy.

    I think with any of these films, there’s a desire to saintify the person they’re doing the film on. Even if that person really doesn’t deserve it. I could see that pissing off a lot of people who not only hated her but were negatively affected by her decisions. I also have a feeling that the film ignores some other less than glorious moments for Thatcher as well.

    I’ll have to get Stone’s Nixon on Netflix some time because I don’t think I’ve ever seen it and from what you say, it sounds good. Pat Brown and JFK once (in a privately recorded presidential phone conversation) agreed that Nixon was a paranoid psychotic.

  32. So cal

    I’m watching a gop primary debate in Iowa at the moment, they are talking a lot about abortion and abolishing courts and limiting the power of the judiciary

    Any comments?

  33. @ChrisLane1945

    ” I wonder what happened to that lawyer who had been introduced by Derry Irvine to a lady from Liverpool, also traing to be a lawyer. She was a daughter of the actor Tony Booth.
    I think that the losing Labour candidate gatecrashed selection meeting in Sedgefield and defeated hard left Les Huckfield…”

    Ah yes, you refer to a certain Mr Tony Blair. I remember that Beaconsfield by-election when Michael Foot escorted an impossibly youthful looking Tony Blair around the constituency. I think Tony advocated the nationalisation of the banks and CND in those salad days!

    How both the times and the man changed although, when in his pomp, Tony Blair was indeed an irresistible political force and a politician nonpareil.

  34. What about the other parties? No figures for

    UKIP
    BNP
    Green
    etc.

  35. @SocalLiberal

    “Bromsgrove….I think that’s where Steven Davies is from or where he was born. I think anyway….”

    Blimey, I know we live in a global village these days, but how on earth have you heard about a former Worcestershire cricketer?? He was indeed born in Bromsgrove (as I was in 1955) and went on to play for Worcestershire before moving down south to play for Surrey. He has played for England but I suppose is now better known for publicly announcing that he’s gay, the first professional cricketer to do so, I think.

  36. CROSS BAT 11
    Yes Tony was a politician nonpareil.

    With apologies to NickP: Once, Twice, Three times a winner….

    An idea: How about making him leader of the Labour Party?

    Ed M could become an effective junior spokesman in the office of A Shadow Minister for local government, or possibly the scottish office.

  37. It’s been an interesting week (outside of the UK polling world, at least). For the first time since the European crisis broke we are seeing people really beginning to think about what might happen to the Euro. Up until Tuesday it was really just a few nutters like me and the Telegraph bloggers who were saying the Euro was finished, but the markets really started to move against the Euro this week, and it transpires that even governments are preparing contingency plans.

    There is still in some quarters an assumption that the German’s will about face and agree to let the ECB go wild in the bond markets, but the reaction in Ireland to what happens when your budget is controlled by a foreign country might just be beginning to make people realise just what this course of action would mean and how untenable it would be.

    The bottom line is that there won’t be a solution to this until debts are reduced, either through being paid off normally from growth, inflated away, devalued or defaulted directly – or a combination of these.

    The Euro increasingly appears as a stumbling block to any of these solutions, and I really wonder how much patience the markets are going to have with the politicians.

  38. ChrisLane1945

    For shame, sir!

    There is no “Scottish Office” for EDM to be promoted to! :-)

    It was renamed the Scotland Office, at the time of political devolution starting

    Originally, it was the Scotch Office, – but they sobered up (or got taped), depending on which side of the Atlantic you live.

  39. Alec

    “what happens when your budget is controlled by a foreign country ”

    I’m making absolutely no comment at all! :-)

  40. Socal
    “I could see that pissing off a lot of people who not only hated her but were negatively affected by her decisions. I also have a feeling that the film ignores some other less than glorious moments for Thatcher as well. ”

    ChrisLane
    “CROSS BAT 11
    Yes Tony was a politician nonpareil.
    With apologies to NickP: Once, Twice, Three times a winner….”

    Let’s not forget that Mrs T also won 3 elections and she and Reagan had a huge influence on the fall of the Soviet bloc. It might even have been the last hurrah of western civilisation the way things are going.

  41. Chrislane1945
    ‘On the STETCHFORD by election:
    I remember that very well, and thinking at the time that the swing was very low, in my October 1982 Half Term it was in my first school- Basildon’

    I am afraid you have misremembered this big time!
    The Stechford By-election took place in March 1977 as a result of Roy Jenkins resigning from the Callaghan Government to become President of the Europeran Commission. Terry Davis lost the seat to the Tories on a 17.5% swing a few days after Denis Healey’s Budget.. The Tory winner was Andrew Mackay later forced by Cameron to stand down as candidate for Bracknell because of his expense claims!

  42. @ Chris Lane (from the last thread)

    “many thanks, and after a glorious day at the sea side here, yes I am hoping to teach on and on and on- as someone said.”

    You’re very welcome.

    @ Amber Star (from the last thread)

    “When the DVD of Thatcher is selling for around 50p, in Scotland there will be parties. We will gather to hurl pop-corn & abuse at the TV screen then ceremoniously shred the DVD whilst raising a glass to Michael Foot, poll-tax protesters & everybody else who opposed her.”

    Lol. That sounds like a good plan. I guess I’m lucky that there will probably never be a similar movie on Ronald Reagan (the tv show got cancelled due to national right wing outrage….not because they had seen any of it but because the actors cast in it were well known Liberals). And it’s for that reason, I don’t see any glorification movie ever being made in his honor. No one wants to write one or act in it and anything less than a plotline acknowledging him as the second coming of Christ will offend right wingers.

    Reagan and Thatcher have their names held up synonymously by the Conservative Movement as the two great alltime leaders who need to be worshipped and emulated and who did no wrong (why Newt Gingrich compared himself to both just the other day). If she was truly like him, I probably would have despised her too.

    @ Crossbat11 (from the last thread)

    “Belated congratulations, by the way, for your success in passing your exams! I’ve always been a fan of your posts and contributions to these pages and, whilst I rarely reply to them directly, I always read your comments with great interest and enjoyment. It helps that I tend to agree with a lot of what you say too!!

    As for the Thatcher film, while I’m a great admirer of Meryl Streep’s acting, I think I’ll give it a miss. I hear it’s a bit of a hagiography; all Thatcher and hardly any Thatcherism!!”

    Well thank you for your kind and congratulatory words. I like your comments. It’s funny, we do have similar political outlooks though I think we diverge on specific policies (which probably stems from being citizens of two different countries).

    I think those hagiographies can be disappointing, especially when they glorify people you don’t like. They can lack perspective and they can bring back bad memories. Your attitude to this film might be described as “I lived through Thatcher. I don’t need to go see the movie.”

  43. Chrislane1945,
    I suspect you may be thinking of the Northfield by election in Autumn 1982 – won by Labour on a very small swing!

  44. @SoCalLiberal

    Lord, don’t get “Nixon” out just on my say-so: it’s way long and best digested in small bits – you do have to be slightly drunk to watch it. But only *slightly* drunk: if you give it your attention it does reward you, and it accords the subject weight that a more entertaining film would not. Well worth watching but not great fun, if you see what I mean.

    So, what else? “Margaret” (Lindsay Duncan) or “The Falklands Play” (Patricia Hodge) for Thatcher. For Blair, view the ones where he’s played by Michael Sheen (“The Deal”, “The Queen”, “The Special Relationship”) and ignore the others.

    As for Presidents, well…for Clinton you’ve got Dennis Quaid in TSR and he got the smarts, but I still think Travolta played him better in “Primary Colors”. And then you’ve got Michael Douglas as not-Clinton in “The American President” .

    I heretically think Bruce Greenwood and Stephen Culp nailed JFK and RFK in “Thirteen Days” but you might disagree.

    We shall draw a kindly veil over “The Reagans” and “The Kennedys” …:-)

    Nixon’s been done by Philip Baker Hall (“Secret Honor”) but it’s dated badly, and Frank Langella got him good in “Frost/Nixon” (Michael Sheen again!), but toheckwithit, it’s still Hopkins’s gig.

    Other than a supporting part in the “Right Stuff”, I can’t think of a potrayal of LBJ worth mentioning.

    You’re too young to remember “Washington: Behind Closed Doors” and perhaps I remember it over fondly, but it was big in its day… :-)

    Anyhoo, ho-hum, I’d better stop there before I start assigning marks and drawing up ranked tables…off you trot and be a good lawyer. Or, failing that, a rich one… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  45. Martyn

    Thanks for the reminder of “Washington: Behind Closed Doors”. I enjoyed it greatly.

  46. @Oldnat

    Omigawd, it’s on YouTube…all of it!

    Regards, Martyn

  47. I think that Maggie’s Achilles heel in the greater scheme of things was not the fact that she was a woman, but that she was a realist, a pragmatist. Although being a woman was a disadvantage and a challenge to the fundamental misogeny of the political left, what stuck in their craw was the fact that she wasn’t a romantic, a dreamer. I read with something close to dis-belief the constant, almost relentless, campaign against her.
    Whilst re-writing history is a feature of both left and right, the spitefulness and hate displayed by the left towards Maggie, is a trifle worrying, and indeed, says more about the bullyboy mentality encouraged by left wing commentators and opinion formers, than it does about a fundamentally decent person who just happens to be a woman.
    I speak of course as an admirer of Maggie, just in the event of doubt. :-)

  48. Just as an historical reminder, here are the top 7 popular UK GE votes. I went down to 7 so we could compare Blair to Thatcher.

    1. 14,093,007 John Major (Con) 1992
    2. 13,948,385 Clem Attlee (Lab) 1951 (lost)
    3. 13,760,935 Margaret Thatcher (Con) 1987
    4. 13,750,875 Harold MacMillan (Con) 1959
    5. 13,724,418 Winston Churchill (Con) 1951
    6. 13,697,923 Margaret Thatcher (Con) 1979
    7. 13,518,167 Tony Blair (Lab) 1997

    The point being that Mrs T was not exactly the universal hate-figure that some posters on here would have us believe.

  49. @OldNat

    I’m watching it on YouTube now, and woah, it’s aged beautifully… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

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