There is a new TNS BMRB voting intention poll out here. Topline figures are CON 36%(+3), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 11% (nc), others 16%. Changes are from their last political monitor a month ago, where they apparently asked voting intention but didn’t publish it (or at least, it’s not up in the tables on their site).

We haven’t seen any voting intention figures for Great Britain for a while (as the successors to System Three, they have been regularly conducting polling in Scotland), while some come have slipped past me, these are the first VI figures from them that I can recall since the election. There is at least one very notable change – prior to the election TNS were using traditional face-to-face polling, the only company to do so since MORI switched their voting intention polls wholly to telephone in 2008. The latest TNS poll has switched instead to online polling.

Clearly we don’t have much to benchmark TNS polls against at the moment, but a small Labour lead, a collapse in Liberal Democrat support since the election and a significant increase in support for minor parties since the election all fit very much with the broad picture we’re seeing from all the pollsters.

Meanwhile YouGov’s daily poll for yesterday showed CON 37%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8% – bang in line with the 4 point Labour lead YouGov’s daily polling has been averaging around.


313 Responses to “TNS-BMRB – CON 36%, LAB 37%, LDEM 11%”

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  1. @AMBERSTAR

    “Let’s have the G20 austerity summit in Cannes”

    It’s always a great venue for those controversial works of fiction. Quite apt really.

    THe French hotel bill sends two messages:

    “Look how rich we are”

    “Look how little I care”

    I maintain that France seems to be the biggest winner from all these EU arrangements.

  2. ChrisLane 1945

    I hadn’t realised that four year olds went to formal schooling in England.

    When did that start?

  3. CHRIS

    That was a great article.

    To read –
    “When they arrive, its three-year-olds, chosen non-selectively by catchment area, are well behind the national average. By final tests at 11, the children are in the top 2% in the country.”
    is indeed inspiring.

    But think what it means for those children & their future.

  4. Chouenlai

    Not all Glaswegian Tories are equally enthused.

    http://new-right.blogspot.com/

    I don’t know enough about the membership of the Scots Tories to be able to make any predictions, but I wonder if he will be the only Scots Tory who sees the Davidson version as meaning that they, “on principle cannot remain apart of that wasteful non-vision. The time has come to irrevocably and permanently renounce my wish or desire to be in the ‘Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party’.”

  5. Colin

    Again, I don’t know the details of how English schools manage their intakes. Can you explain to me what “chosen non-selectively by catchment area” actually means?

    If they are “chosen”, then presumably some form of “selection” is being made? Otherwise the phrase makes no sense.

  6. @OLDNAT

    I got as far as:

    “Ruth Davidson has one the Scottish Tory leadership contest, and I wish her the best of luck”

    Maybe she can two and three the leadership, given time. ;)

  7. Statgeek

    Yes, I loved that “one”!

    He used to post on Brian Taylor’s blog when he was a student – he couldn’t spell very well then, either!

  8. AmberStar @ John B Dick

    SLAB oppose minimum pricing and accept freebies of small quanties of beer. How NewLabour.
    —————————————-
    1. Minimum pricing may well be unlawful – so much for SNP competence;

    2. And it’s about as practical a policy as arresting people for singing at football matches; &

    3. If your comment has any weight, how’s the SNP’s transport & corporation tax policy to be viewed? …given they receive huge wads of cash from Mr ‘Stagecoach’ & family…

    1. We’ll see
    2. Sometimes legislation is used to state a position anout societies view. Much equality legislation does that. I don’t approve.
    3 Tax, no problem. Transport: With circumspection

  9. Socal Liberal

    I am told that Miss Goldie personally persuaded her successor to leave the commentry box and come on to the pitch. There may be conscious or not an attraction there.

  10. OLD NAT

    It will be in their Prospectus I assume, which you can access from their website:-

    h ttp://www.durandacademy.com/

  11. @ Colin

    ““Officials calculate the bill for hospitality alone will be ONE MILLION euros.

    The two-day summit is being staged on a palm-fringed seafront which boasts some of the world’s most luxurious hotels.

    French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is hosting the talks, faces the biggest hotel charges.

    His Presidential Suite at the five-star Majestic Hotel is an eye-watering £32,000 a night.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russia’s President Dmitri Medvedev are among guests in smaller suites costing between £10,000 and £30,000.

    US President Barack Obama is staying in the vast £30,000-a-night Grace Kelly suite at the Carlton Hotel, which has fine views over the Mediterranean.

    He topped Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud and Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi, who are in £25,000-a-night suites.

    Chinese leader Hu Jintao has the £10,000-a-night Executive Suite at the Gray d’Albion Hotel.

    It makes PM David Cameron look positively frugal as he settles for a standard suite at the Marriott Hotel costing a mere £1,680. ”

    The Sun.

    Obscene.”

    I think this is a little absurd. I mean unless the costs are aggregated for their staffs, in which case this is just lazy and manipulative journalism. I had no idea that Cannes was so expensive. It is sister cities with Beverly Hills, which looks like a discount bargain by comparisson. If you wanted to stay at the Beverly Hills Montage Hotel, a 2000 square foot presidential suite goes for $5250 a night.

    I normally don’t begrudge elected officials having a little opulence and decadence. I think it’s a perk as part of the job. Plus security of leaders has to be considered, especially in a time like this. But there should be some consideration of cost, especially when these same leaders are lecturing everyone else on the need for austerity or to be responsible. When your room costs tens of thousands of dollars (actually, 30000 pounds is like what $47000?), that seems a bit excessive.

  12. @ John B Dick

    “I am told that Miss Goldie personally persuaded her successor to leave the commentry box and come on to the pitch. There may be conscious or not an attraction there.”

    I’m not sure I understand.

  13. Colin

    Thanks for the link.

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